So What’s the Deal with Jordan Reed, Really?
By Steve Thomas
News flash: Jordan Reed is a very talented football player. That’s the kind of in-depth, hardcore analysis that you’ve come to expect from me, right? I’m not so much interested in just listing his stats here and concluding that “the guy is good” – healthy Jordan has become such an integral part of the Redskins offense and seems to be such a matchup nightmare that I started to wonder exactly how he compares to other elite tight ends. This is the fourth column in my “So What’s the Deal, Really” series; previous subjects have included Matt Jones, Jay Gruden, and Rob Kelley, and I can tell you that I’m looking forward to this piece the most.
First of all, Jordan Reed’s relevant career stats from 2013 to 2016, which is his NFL career to date[1]:
Games/yrs Targets Rec Yards Catch % Yards/rec TDs
46 / 4 327 248 2602 75.8 10.49 20
Clearly, from a statistical perspective, Reed has had a great amount of success when he’s been healthy and on the field. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden thinks the world of Jordan, recently stating that, “the offense runs through Jordan, quite frankly”[2]. Local fans seem to understand his value to the team. The real question, though, is where this level of production places him amongst both his current peers and the pantheon of great NFL tight ends. Is our love just the result of home team bias, or is he really at the very top of the list of NFL tight ends? Let’s find out.
Comparison to peers
Reed is 10th amongst all tight ends in total receiving yards gained between 2013 and 2016. This is the list:
Name/Team Games Yards
G. Olsen/Car 64 4001
J. Graham/NO/Sea 59 3632
R. Gronkowski/NE 45 3432
D. Walker/Ten 60 3349
J. Witten/Dal 64 2940
A. Gates/SD 54 2871
T. Kelce/KC 49 2862
Z. Ertz/Phil 61 2840
M. Bennett/Chi/NE 59 2815
J. Reed/Wash 46 2602
That’s good, but not great, in terms of raw yardage gained, but it does play into the narrative that Reed is great when he’s actually healthy. As you can see, the only two other players on this list other than Reed who have played less than 50 games are the Patriots’ All-World Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce of the Chiefs. The list changes when sorted by yards per game from 2013 to 2016:
Name/Team Yards/Game
R. Gronkowski/NE 76.3
G. Olsen/Car 62.5
J. Graham/NO/Sea 61.6
T. Kelce/KC 58.4
J. Reed/Wash 56.6
Jordan obviously vaults up the list quite a bit by this measure. Only 4 other tight ends have produced more yards for their team each game over the last four seasons. Of those 4, only Travis Kelce has played the same number of seasons as Reed – Gronkowski and Graham are 7 year vets, and Olsen just finished his 10th year. Furthermore, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce are both the number 1 options on teams without many other receiving threats, whereas the Redskins have had quality talents like Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon competing with Reed for touches.
Those are interesting numbers, but we do need to dig a bit deeper to really figure out just how good Jordan is and can be. How about catch percentage, i.e., the number of balls caught thrown a players’ way? Check out this list of the catch percentages for NFL tight ends between 2013 and 2016 for tight ends that had more than 150 targets over that time period:
Name/Team Catch %
J. Reed/Wash 75.8
H. Miller/Pitt 73.3
T. Kelce/KC 73.0
J. Witten/Dal 70.8
M. Bennett/Chi/NE 70.1
The list goes down from there. The point is, this: Reed has actually caught a higher percentage of balls thrown his way over the course of his career than any other starting tight end in the NFL over the past four seasons. Well, that’s just tight ends, you say? Not so fast. When you throw wide receivers into the mix for the same time period, Reed is still at the top of the list:
Name/Team Catch %
J. Reed/Wash 75.8
C. Beasley/Dal 73.6
H. Miller/Pitt 73.3
T. Kelce/KC 73.0
D. Baldwin/Sea 72.7
This clearly shows that this Reed person can play. In fact, let’s apply that same test regarding catch percentage to all tight ends with over 250 career targets in the history of the NFL:
Name/Team Years Catch %
J. Reed/Wash 2013-16 75.8
T. Kelce/KC 2013-16 73.0
J. Forsett/Sea/Hou/Bal/Den 2008-16 72.4
H. Miller/Pitt 2005-15 71.8
J. Witten/Dal 2003-16 71.0
This list is skewed by the fact that (1) Reed has only play four years and has only 327 targets, whereas guys like Witten and Miller have been playing for 13 and 10 seasons, respectively, and have thousands of targets, and (2) only recently have tight ends become an integral part of the NFL’s passing offense. Certainly fair criticisms, but this does show that Jordan Reed is a truly elite pass catcher, the very best in the NFL at that particular skill, from a numbers point of view.
So we’ve established that, statistically, Jordan Reed is elite in terms of receiving production and the ability to catch the ball. He’s so good, in fact, that he’s already third on the Redskins’ all-time receiving yards list for tight ends, behind Jerry Smith (5496 yards) and Chris Cooley (4711 yards) despite only playing four seasons so far.
Given all of this greatness, the real question, to me, is where Reed falls in the pantheon of great tight ends. The tough part about evaluating his place in great company is that Jordan has only played four seasons. Therefore, I decided to compare his production thusfar in his career to the production of four all-time greats, Antonio Gates (San Diego), Tony Gonzales (Kansas City and Atlanta) (probably the best ever; certainly the most productive), Jason Witten (Dallas), and Vernon Davis (San Francisco, Denver, and Washington), over a comparable time period. Since Reed has missed so much time due to injury, the only way to evenly compare these players was by using a similar number of games played by each, rather than simply comparing all of them after 4 years. Here’s how Jordan stacks up with those players:
Name # gms targets rec yards TDs yds/catch catch %
J. Reed 46 327 248 2602 20 10.5 75.8
A. Gates 45 296 194 2454 25 12.7 65.5
V. Davis 40 176 103 1132 9 11.0 58.5
T. Gonzales 47 260 168 1838 15 10.9 64.6
J. Witten 47 265 188 2084 13 11.1 70.9
As you can see, Reed generally matches up quite well, statistically, with the production of these four great tight ends over roughly the same number of games: Reed is the leader amongst this group in number of targets and receptions, yards, and catch percentage (of course). He’s second in touchdowns to Antonio Gates, but last in yards per catch. Based on this data, it appears likely that if Jordan can stay healthy and keep up this level of production, Reed will be amongst the best tight ends in the league, and possibly to ever play.
I’d be remiss in not addressing the statistical weakness in his stats, highlighted in the chart above: yards per catch. Not only does Reed’s yards per catch lag behind those 4 historical greats, but it generally lags behind his current tight end peers between 2013-2016 as well:
Rank Name/Team Yards/catch
1 R. Gronkowski/NE 15.74
2 B. Celek/Phil 13.29
3 V. Davis/SF/Den/Wash 12.96
4 J. Graham/NO/Sea 12.79
5 T. Kelce/KC 12.78
…
21 J. Reed/Wash 10.49
The fact that Rob Gronkowski is at the top of this list by a wide margin should come as no surprise to anyone. It’s fairly inarguable, for the most part, that he’s one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL at any position, certainly amongst tight ends; plus, Brent Celek, Vernon Davis, and Jimmy Graham are no surprise, either. All of those top 5 represent dangerous threats to an NFL defense. Reed is a threat, too, obviously, but with an overall yards per catch of 10.49, for all of his strengths, he just isn’t amongst the top tight ends by this measure. In light of this question, I have one last chart for you – the table below shows the yards after catch per reception for tight ends with at least 30 receptions in the 2016 season[3]:
Rank Name/Team Yard after catch/reception
1 T. Kelce/KC 7.7
2 M. Bennett/NE 7.5
3 L. Kendricks/LA 5.4
4 V. Davis/Wash 5.3
4 J. Cook/GB 5.3
6 Z. Miller/Chic 5.0
…
19 J. Reed/Wash 3.7
Once again, Reed lags significantly behind the tight ends at the top of the list[4]. In other words, Reed is a great threat, probably the biggest threat in the NFL at making a tough catch, but is somewhat average amongst tight ends after the catch. Clearly, this is why his average yards per catch lags behind in comparison to all of his other statistics.
So, after all of these numbers and charts, what the conclusion about Jordan Reed? I can summarize it for you: perhaps the best hands in the NFL amongst tight ends and wide receivers, overall production on par with some of the NFL’s greatest tight ends ever, merely average with the ball after the catch. Generally speaking, he can dominate a game with his hands, but most likely isn’t going to run away with the ball after the catch as can Rob Gronkowski or former Redskin Desean Jackson. I don’t intend this as a slight of Jordan’s capabilities in any way: Jordan might be the top possession receiver in the game right now, and it’s tough to find a player this good, no matter how high a team may draft a player. He’s never going to replace the long-ball threat that Desean Jackson brought, but Reed is the guy the Redskins can go to most consistently when they need the tough yards. Very clearly, his health is the primary roadblock standing in the way of him becoming an all-time great – with six concussions to his name, reportedly, we all cringe when we see Jordan take a tough shot. Stay healthy, Jordan, please, for your own sake and for the sake of the team.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
[1] All stats in this column are courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, except as specifically noted below.
[2] http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/video/jay-gruden-without-desean-pierre-offense-runs-through-jordan-reed
[3] Data courtesy of www.sportingcharts.com.
[4] Rob Gronkowski only started 6 games in the 2016 regular season due to injury, and thus had only 25 receptions. He averaged 9.4 yards after the catch per reception in 2016, which would have been first on the list by a wide margin had he qualified by my arbitrary criteria.