So What’s the Deal with Samaje Perine, Really?

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January 22, 2018

by Steve Thomas

 

Samaje Perine during 2017 training camp. Photo credit: Thomas Lawrence

Samaje Perine is a player who came to Washington in the 2017 draft with high hopes that he could become the feature back that this team has been looking for since Alfred Morris’ fantastic 2012 rookie campaign.  In the end, his 2017 season with the Redskins was one that featured flashes and brief moments of that potential some saw in him, but had far more stretches of frustration and disappointment.  We’re therefore left with an open question as to his future place with this team.  In other words, he’s the perfect candidate for one of my famous “So What’s the Deal with . . .” columns[1].

For those of you who are new this series, the purpose of this column is not to be a film study of this player – it’s intended to be an in-depth look at Perine’s statistical performance[2], dating back to his college days at Oklahoma, through his performance in the NFL, in comparison to his peers.  The goal is to see whether his past production can give us all some insight into his future performance and place with the team.  If you want to see a film study of Samaje, speak up and we might do one in the future, but this isn’t it.  Make sense?  Good.  Now, let’s get on with it.

College

Perine played for the University of Oklahoma from 2014 – 2016 alongside the much heralded but controversial running back Joe Mixon, who is now with the Cincinnati Bengals.  In terms of raw production, Perine rushed for a total of 4,122 yards on 685 attempts, for 6.0 yards per carry, and 49 touchdowns in 36 games.  He also had 40 receptions for 321 yards and 2 additional touchdowns.  In general, this is very solid production and an accomplished background for an NFL running back.  However, his performance did decline throughout his time at Oklahoma.  This is the breakdown of his three collegiate years:

Yr        Gms     Att       Att/Gm[3]      Yds          YPC    TDs         Rec     Rcving Yds  Rcving TDs

14          13      263        20.2         1,713          6.5     21            15               108           0

15          13      226        17.4         1,349          6.0     16            15               107           1

16          10      196        19.6         1.060          5.4     12            10               106           1

What jumps out upon looking at these numbers is that Perine’s effectiveness declined each year despite roughly the same usage rate.  I suspect that this trend is one of the reasons why Perine lasted until the 4th round despite an elite start to his collegiate career.  His average yards per carry fell more than an entire yard between 2014 and 2016[4], his carries declined, and his total rushing yards fell.  How did his final season compare to his peers?  The chart below shows the top rushing yardages in Division 1 college football (I know it’s actually called “FCS” now; don’t @ me) for 2016:

                                        
Rank Player School G Att Yds Avg
1 Donnel Pumphrey San Diego State 14  349 2133  6.1
2 D’Onta Foreman Texas 11  323 2028  6.3
3 Brian Hill Wyoming 14  349 1860  5.3
4 Aaron Jones Texas-El Paso 12  229 1773  7.7
5 Dalvin Cook Florida State 13  288 1765  6.1
6 Jeremy McNichols Boise State 13  314 1709  5.4
7 James Flanders Tulsa 13  258 1629  6.3
8 Anthony Wales Western Kentucky 13  237 1621  6.8
9 Christian McCaffrey Stanford 11  253 1603  6.3
10 Lamar Jackson Louisville 13  260 1571  6.0
……
56 Samaje Perine Oklahoma 10 196 1060 5.4

As you can see, Perine was not highly ranked in total yardage; however, this is due to injuries and the presence of Joe Mixon with the Sooners, so this by itself is not particularly insightful.  Yards per carry, though, is far more useful.  The following chart shows 2016’s top college rushers by yards per carry for those who had 100 or more carries:

Rank Player School G Att Yds Avg
1 Ty Johnson Maryland 13 110 1004 9.1
2 Teriyon Gipson New Mexico 11 145 1269 8.8
3 Tyrone Owens New Mexico 12 137 1097 8.0
4 Quinton Flowers South Florida 13 198 1530 7.7
4 Aaron Jones Texas-El Paso 12 229 1773 7.7
6 Tony Brooks-James Oregon 12 101 771 7.6
6 Derrius Guice Louisiana State 12 183 1387 7.6
8 Lavon Coleman Washington 14 114 852 7.5
8 Rashaad Penny San Diego State 14 136 1018 7.5
10 Justin Crawford West Virginia 13 163 1184 7.3
11 Brandon Dawkins Arizona 10 131 944 7.2
12 Nick Fitzgerald Miss St 13 195 1375 7.1
12 Damien Harris Alabama 15 146 1037 7.1
12 Bryce Love Stanford 12 111 783 7.1
15 Damarea Crockett Missouri 11 153 1062 6.9
 

81

 ……

Samaje Perine

 Oklahoma 10 196 1060     5.4

Perine’s yards per carry fell from a roughly top 25 ranking in 2014 all the way to 81st in 2016, which is downright average.  This tells us that the NFL should have been, and probably was, concerned during 2017 draft scouting about his projection into the pros.  Is Perine the elite college back of 2014 or is he the merely good one of 2016 despite playing in the defense-deficient Big 12?  Was this decline due to the cumulative effect of 489 carries over the prior two seasons or was it the result of specific injuries?  Did NFL scouts see something on film that explained this decline?

NFL

This is Perine’s 2017 production for the Redskins:

 

Rcving Rcving
Gms Starts Att Yds TD Y/A Tgts Rec Yds Y/R TD Yds Scrmg
16 8 175 603 1 3.4    24 22 182 8.3 1 785

Perine became the full-time starter in game 10 against the Saints after the injury to Rob Kelley the week before.  Chris Thompson was injured in the Saints game.  In the 7 games Samaje started, he rushed for 100 or more yards twice, once against the Saints and then again the following week against the Giants.  He averaged 5.1 yards per carry against the Saints and 4.2 yards per carry against the Giants.  In the final 5 games of the season, Perine had a combined 62 carries for 176 yards, which is 2.8 yards per carry.

How did Perine stack up against other NFL running backs?  I don’t need to publish a chart to tell you that 603 rushing yards on the season doesn’t rank very high – it’s 31st in the NFL, ironically just one spot behind Joe Mixon, who gained 626 rushing yards.  There’s also no need to demonstrate that 3.4 yards per carry for a season isn’t very good, either.  Here are 2017’s top 10 in yards per carry for backs with 100 or more carries (rounded to the nearest tenth):

Rank Player Tm Att Yds Y/A
1 Alvin Kamara NOR 120 728 6.1
2 Dion Lewis NWE 180 896 5.0
3 Mark Ingram NOR 230 1124 4.9
3 Kareem Hunt KAN 272 1327 4.9
5 Kenyan Drake MIA 133 644 4.8
5 Alfred Morris DAL 115 547 4.8
6 Todd Gurley LAR 279 1305 4.7
7 Alex Collins BAL 212 973 4.6
10 LeGarrette Blount PHI 173 766 4.4
10 Matt Breida SFO 105 465 4.4
10 Devonta Freeman ATL 196 865 4.4
10 Orleans Darkwa NYG 171 751 4.4
10 Giovani Bernard CIN 105 458 4.4

When sorted to just include rookie running backs, the yardage list narrows to the following:

Rank Player Rd Drafted Tm G Att Yds
1 Kareem Hunt      3 KAN 16  272 1327
2 Leonard Fournette      1 JAX 13  268 1040
3 Alvin Kamara      3 NOR 16  120 728
4 Joe Mixon      2 CIN 14  178 626
5 Samaje Perine      4 WAS 16  175 603
6 Jamaal Williams      4 GNB 16  153 556
7 Wayne Gallman      4 NYG 13  111 476
8 Matt Breida    und SFO 16  105 465
9 Aaron Jones     5 GNB 12    81 448
10 Christian McCaffrey     1 CAR 16  117 435

By this measure, Perine looks like one of the NFL’s more productive rookie backs.  However, take a look at what happens when we adjust this list again to show the average yards per carry on the season for rookies with 50 or more carries:

 

Rank

 Player Rd Drafted Tm Att Yds Y/A
1 Alvin Kamara       3   NOR 120 728 6.07
2 Aaron Jones       5   GNB 81 448 5.53
3 Kareem Hunt       3   KAN 272 1327 4.88
4 Dalvin Cook       2   MIN 74 354 4.78
5 Matt Breida     und   SFO 105 465 4.43
6 Corey Clement     und   PHI 74 321 4.34
7 Wayne Gallman      4   NYG 111 476 4.29
8 Tarik Cohen      4   CHI 87 370 4.25
9 D’Onta Foreman      3  HOU 78 327 4.19
10 Leonard Fournette      1   JAX 268 1040 3.88
11 Marlon Mack      4   IND 93 358 3.85
12 Christian McCaffrey      1   CAR 117 435 3.72
13 Jamaal Williams      4   GNB 153 556 3.63
14 Elijah McGuire      6   NYJ 88 315 3.58
15 Joe Mixon      2  CIN 178 626 3.52
16 Samaje Perine      4  WAS 175 603 3.45

This is the entire list.  I haven’t arbitrarily cut off the list – only 16 rookie running backs had 50 or more carries.  Look who is 16th and last: Samaje Perine.  Not only that, but as mentioned above, his production became progressively worse in the final 5 games of the year.  In other words, of the rookie running backs who got significant playing time this season, Perine was the least productive over the course of the entire season.  Certainly, Redskins injuries along the offensive line and the lack of threats in the passing game were both hindrances to Perine’s ability to be productive on the ground – the injury situation was a crisis, particularly along the offensive line.  But can those injuries make up for this lack of success in comparison to his fellow rookies?

Taking Perine’s stats from his 7 starts and projecting them to a full 16 games, his numbers would look like this: 249.6 carries, 898.6 yards, 3.6 yards per carry – still not great, but slightly more palatable than his actual season numbers.  He would have ranked third amongst rookies in total rushing yards under that projection.  Remember Kamara, Hunt, and Fournette, at a minimum, all got significantly more playing time in all 16 games over the course of the season than did Perine.

It is somewhat axiomatic that in today’s NFL that the feature back must also be able to produce as a receiver.  This season, 5 rookies produced significantly more than the others in the air, with the Saints’ Alvin Kamara running away from everyone else as the leader:

Rank Player Draft Tm G Tgt Rec Yds   Y/R Ctch%
1 Alvin Kamara    3 NOR 16  100  81  826 10.2 81.00%
2 Christian McCaffrey    1 CAR 16  113  80  651 8.14 70.80%
3 Tarik Cohen              4 CHI 16    71  53  358 6.75 74.60%
4 Kareem Hunt    3 KAN 16    63  53  455 8.58 84.10%
5 Leonard Fournette    1 JAX 13    48  36  302 8.39 75.00%
……
10 Samaje Perine    4 WAS 16 24 22 182 8.27 91.70%

Samaje did fine with making the most of the targets he was given, but he was not a threat out of the backfield.  18 of his 24 targets, and 17 of his 22 receptions, came when he started the final 7 weeks of the season, meaning that he averaged 2.6 targets and 2.3 receptions per game.  Had he started a full 16 games, Perine would have been on a pace for 42 targets, 37 receptions, and 306 yards – in other words, roughly 5th or 6th among rookie running backs in the passing game.  Decent; not great.

Fumbles

I chose not to address fumbles in this column.  Perine was officially charged with two fumbles this season, but quarterback Kirk Cousins was charged with other turnovers that took place during Cousins – Perine handoffs that appeared to be more the fault of Perine.  Perine’s turnovers bears watching, at least.

What does all of this really mean?

If I had told you before the season that a Redskins rookie running back would start 16 games, rush for 900 yards on 250 carries at 3.6 yards per carry and catch 37 passes for 300 yards behind an offensive line that was chronically injured for three-fourths of the season and had to use 26 different player combinations, would you accept it as a decent first year?  I would, for a 4th round rookie.  But is it special?  Absolutely not.  This statistical analysis roughly matches with what Perine showed on film over the course of 16 games; that is, a guy who had his moments, isn’t as bad as some (for example, me, on The Hog Sty Podcast, at various times) made him out to be, he didn’t show enough to make anyone think he could become an elite-level feature back.  Combine his first year production with what we saw out of him in college, which started out at an elite level, but by the third year had declined down to slightly above average, and we have a back who has not demonstrated that he will be able to progress to the point at which the Redskins can forego bringing other backs and can rely on Perine to be the feature back they need.  The Redskins probably need to continue to hunt for a #1 running back.

What do you think?  Let us know in the comment section below.

 

 

[1] The others are Matt Jones (http://www.thehogsty.com/2016/03/12/so-whats-the-deal-with-matt-jones-really/), Rob Kelley (http://www.thehogsty.com/2017/04/11/so-whats-the-deal-with-rob-kelley-really/), Jordan Reed (http://www.thehogsty.com/2017/06/12/so-whats-the-deal-with-jordan-reed-really/), Terrelle Pryor (http://www.thehogsty.com/2017/08/08/so-whats-the-deal-with-terrelle-pryor-really/), and Ryan Grant (http://www.thehogsty.com/2017/08/28/so-whats-the-deal-with-ryan-grant-really/).

[2] All data is courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com unless otherwise indicated.

[3] Average attempts per game is not a Pro Football Reference stat.  It is my calculation.

[4] Perine missed three games in 2016 due to injury.

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