Free Agency 2018: Running Backs

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February 20, 2018

by Steve Thomas

This column is the second installment in my continuing look into 2018 free agency.  Part one last week covered wide receivers, as that Redskins position group is certainly in dire straits, perhaps the worst of any group on the team.  Not far behind is the running back group, which features quite a few bodies, but few proven players and little projectable talent.  There may be questions as to whether Jay Gruden can truly commit to a featured running back, but regardless, it seems likely that the Redskins will bring in at least one other running back for 2018, whether through free agency or the draft.  Adam Taraschke will cover the running back draft class in the coming weeks (read his column from last week on corners here), but I’m going to address the available free agency running backs today.

For running backs, I’m looking for players who are fairly young, but more importantly haven’t bene overused in terms of number of carries.  Also, considering the offensive system used here in Washington, a running back ideally will be able to contribute as a receiver out of the backfield.  Generally, this is a less than stellar class.  As was the case with my prior installment, my rankings reflect who I think will fit best with the Redskins, not necessarily the best overall players.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at who’s available and might be the best candidate to fill the Redskins’ needs:

Top of the Heap[1]

#1 – Carlos Hyde – 6’0”, 230 lbs; 27 years old

Carlos Hyde, drafted in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft out of Ohio St. by the 49ers, was a highly sought-after four star recruit in high school who considered several offers from big-time programs before settling on Ohio St.  He had an extremely successful career in four years with the Buckeyes, with 523 total carries for 3,198 yards and a 6.1 yards per career average.  His final year was exemplary and no doubt earned him quite a bit in terms of draft capital, with 1,521 yards on just 208 carries (7.1 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns, plus 16 receptions for 147 yards and 3 more touchdowns.

As a pro, Hyde has 655 carries, 2,729 yards, 4.2 yards per carries, and 21 touchdowns, plus 109 receptions on 152 targets for 634 yards and 3 touchdowns.  His year by year statistical breakdown:

2014:   14 gms/0 starts; 83 carries, 333 yds, 4.0 yds/carry, 4 TDs; 12 rec/16 tgts, 68 yds, 0 TDs

2015:   7 gms/7 starts; 115 carries, 470 yds, 4.1 yds/carry, 3 TDs; 11 rec/15 tgts, 53 yds, 0 TDs

2016:   13 gms/13 starts; 217 carries, 988 yds, 4.6 yds/carry, 6 TDs; 27 rec/33 tgts, 163 yds, 3 TDs

2017:   16 gms/16 starts; 240 carries; 940 yds, 3.9 yds/carry, 8 TDs; 59 rec/88 tgts, 350 yds, 0 TDs

He played his first year in San Francisco behind possible future hall of famer Frank Gore, but acquitted himself well enough that the team elected not to re-sign Gore for the 2015 season and instead hand the starting job to Hyde. He continued to develop in the coming years, despite awful quarterback and offensive line play through the majority of his time in San Francisco, plus a stint on injured reserve in 2015 due to a fractured foot and shoulder injury in 2016.

Hyde runs with power and isn’t known as a speed back – he ran 4.66 in the 40 at the 2014 Combine, but he is shiftier than you might expect for a bigger back.  He has good vision.  Hyde does have a reputation as a decent blocker, but his talents are such that he’s a consistently productive back in both phases of the offense.  In 2017, in particular, while his yards per carry dipped, he proved that he can be a quality receiver out of the backfield.  Hyde is a back who should thrive behind a better offensive line and quarterback play. He won’t be a superstar, and he will never remind anyone of Walter Peyton, but he’s a big power back who will be consistently productive and can stay on the field for all 3 downs.   In addition, despite his age, he has fairly low mileage by NFL running back standards, with his 240 carries in 2017 being the high-water mark of his career.  This is a running back who can come into Washington and be a solid 3 down starter for at least two years, allowing Washington to focus on other needs in the draft.  It’s unclear whether the 49ers will bring Hyde back.  I anticipate that Hyde would be available for a 3 year contract with base salary in the $4M-$5M range and a reasonable signing bonus, but with a structure that allows the team an out in year 2.

#2 – Dion Lewis – 5’8”, 195 lbs; 27 years old

Dion Lewis was a 2011 5th round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles out of the University of Pittsburgh.  He only played two years of college ball, posting 2,860 yards on 540 carries, 5.3 yards per carry, and 30 TDs, plus 52 receptions for 405 yards and 1 additional TD.

Lewis’ cumulative stats for his pro career include 329 carries, 1,584 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 10 TDs, 88 receptions on 112 targets for 717 yards, and 5 additional touchdowns.  His year to year statistical breakdown:

2011 (Phil): 15 gms/0 starts; 23 carries, 102 yds, 4.4 yds/carry, 1 TD; 1 rec/1 tgt, -1 yds, 0 TDs

2012 (Phil): 9 gms/0 starts; 13 carries, 69 yds, 5.3 yds/carry, 1 TD; 2 rec/2 tgts, 24 yds, 0 TDs

2013 (Cle): 0 gms – injured reserve (fractured fibula)

2014: cut by Colts; out of the NFL

2015 (NE): 7 gms/6 starts; 49 carries, 234 yds, 4.8 yds/carry, 2 TDs; 36 rec/50 tgts, 388 yds, 2 TDs

2016 (NE): 7 gms/5 starts; 64 carries, 283 yds, 4.4 yds/carry, 0 TDs; 17 rec/24 tgts, 94 yds, 0 TDs

2017 (NE): 16 gms/8 starts; 180 carries, 896 yds, 5.0 yds/carry, 6 TDs; 32 rec/35 tgts, 214 yds, 3 TDs

Dion is a player who came into his own under Bill Belichick and the Patriots, particularly in 2017.  He has performed well during the past two seasons, showing both an ability to produce in the run game and as a receiver out of the backfield.  He is a small back, comparable in size to Chris Thompson, but he actually ran well between the tackles in New England and showed the ability to break tackles.  He does not have elite-level top end speed (4.57 40 at the combine), but shows better game speed, which gives him the ability to get to the edge.

Lewis was drafted in 2011 but has low running back mileage as a result of his lack of use in Philadelphia, his injuries, and his year out of football.

The principal downsides to Lewis, in my view, are that (1) he has a significant injury history, including a fractured fibula and torn ACL that had complications and required a second surgery, and (2) he benefit from playing in New England and all of the attention that Tom Brady and the passing game brings.  As Mark Bullock recently said on our show (listen here), New England tends to keep their good players – players have left New England and not performed nearly as well with their new teams.  Lewis is unproven but for being affected by the magic elixir that’s been sprinkled over Foxboro, Massachusetts.  The Patriots at times relied on him as the focus of the offense in 2017; he had one game with 24 carries (Buffalo, week 16) and one with 26 carries (Jets, week 17), and three games with 15 carries.  Outside of that, though, for all of his talents, he’s never been a feature back.  For those reasons, I believe that Lewis holds a bit of risk heading into free agency.  Nonetheless, he would be a quality addition to the Redskins backfield as a three down starter.  His potential contract is likely similar to Hyde’s, a 3 year deal in the $4M – $5M per year range.

Decent fallback options

#3 – Isaiah Crowell – 5’11”, 225 lbs; 25 years old

Isaiah Crowell was signed by the Cleveland Browns in 2014 as undrafted free agent.  Crowell, who was a five star recruit rated by Scout.com as the #1 running back in the country as a high school senior, spent one year at the University of Georgia, gaining 850 yards on 185 carries, for 4.6 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns, with 8 receptions for 59 yards and 1 additional touchdown.  However, Crowell was kicked off the Georgia football team after an arrest for weapons charges (including possession of a firearm in a school zone), a failed drug test, and other disciplinary issues. As a result, he transferred to Alabama St., where he continued to excel on the field.  His combined college stats from both Georgia and Alabama St.[2]: 514 attempts in 2,813 yards for an average of 5.5 yards per carry, and 35 touchdowns, plus 26 receptions, 181 yards, and 1 additional touchdown.  He ran a 4.57 40 yard dash at the 2014 NFL Combine.

In the NFL, Crowell has earned 3,118 yards on 737 carries for an average of 4.2 yards per carry, and 21 touchdowns, plus 96 receptions on 131 targets for 770 yards and 1 additional touchdown.  His year by year statistical breakdown:

2014: 16 gms/4 starts; 148 carries, 607 yds, 4.1 yds/carry, 8 TDs; 9 rec/14 tgts, 87 yds, 0 TDs

2015: 16 gms/9 starts; 185 carries, 706 yds, 3.8 yds/carry, 4 TDs; 19 rec/22 tgts, 182 yds, 1 TD

2016: 16 gms/16 starts; 198 carries, 952 yds, 4.8 yds/carry, 7 TDs; 40 rec/53 tgts, 319 yds, 0 TDs

2017: 16  gms/16 starts; 206 carries, 853 yds, 4.1 yds/carry, 2 TDs; 28 rec/42 tgts, 182 yds, 0 TDs

In general, Crowell was the principal force behind the one thing that the Browns have done fairly well in recent years, running the ball.  What jumps out of the page about his year by year numbers is that that he regressed in 2017.  Some of the regression can be attributed to atrocious quarterback play and basic Browns awfulness, but Crowell did not have a good year, and that will likely hurt him in free agency to one degree or the other.  Strangely, his performance in 2017 actually improved, as measured by yards per carry, after the injury to All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas, who went on injured reserve after week 7[3].  Thanks in part to the presence of another fairly talented runner in Cleveland, Duke Johnson, Crowell has not been overused as a starter and his number of carries has not yet risen to a level of concern.  To his credit, the off-the-field trouble he encountered in college has not followed him to the NFL.

Crowell is a powerful north-south runner who plays faster than it appears and has more lateral quickness than one might expect for a larger running back, although he does not have true breakaway speed.  He is not a zero in the passing game and has produced somewhat in that regard.  As a Redskin, Crowell could take over as the principal starter and be productive.  Redskins head coach Jay Gruden has publicly praised Crowell at times, so it appears as though the Redskins coaching staff is fond of his talents.  He most likely would not be a three down starter, particularly with Chris Thompson on the roster and needing touches.

Cleveland will likely let Crowell leave after his 2017 performance and seems to be in line to draft Saquon Barkley at the top of round 1 of the draft.  Therefore, Crowell almost certainly will be available on the free agent market.  Contractually, Crowell is young enough to be effective for the next few years, so expect a three year deal in the $3M average annual value range, with an out for the team in year 2.

#4 – Orleans Darwka – 6’0”, 215 lbs; 25 years old

Orleans Darkwa was signed by the Miami Dolphins as an undrafted free agent out of Tulane in 2014.  He had a productive but not spectacular career at Tulane from 2010 – 2013, gaining 2,953 yards on 663 carries for a 4.5 yards per carry average, and 39 touchdowns, plus 77 receptions for 595 yards.

Darkwa was cut by Miami and placed on their practice squad early in the 2014 season, where he stayed until he was signed by the New York Giants in that November.  He’s has remained with the Giants ever since that time.  In his NFL career he has 246 carries, 1,038 yards, 4.2 yards per carry, 9 touchdowns, and 29 receptions on 43 targets for 207 yards.  His year by year statistical breakdown:

2014: 11 gms/0 starts; 9 carries, 23 yds, 2.6 yds/carry, 1 TD; 5 rec/6 tgts, 48 yds, 0 TDs

2015: 16 gms/0 starts; 36 carries, 153 yds, 4.3 yds/carry, 1 TD; 3 rec/5 tgts, 31 yds, 0 TDs

2016: 10 gms/2 starts; 30 carries, 111 yds, 3.7 yds/carry, 2 TDs; 2 rec/4 tgts, 12 yds, 0 TDs

2017: 15 gms/11 starts; 171 carries, 751 yds, 4.4 yds/carry, 5 TDs; 19 rec/28 tgts, 116 yds, 0 TDs

Darkwa came into his own this past season on a bad Giants team and had the best game of his career this past season against the Redskins in week 17 when he gained 154 yards on just 20 carries in the Giants 18 – 10 win.  This game surely caught the attention of the Redskins’ coaching staff.

He has slowly progressed and gotten better over the course of his career on a mostly unsuccessful Giants team, and fought to become their primary back in 2017.  He’s most definitely a north – south power runner and has thusfar not proven to be a threat in the passing game, but is a better, more proven version of what the Redskins have repeatedly tried to acquire in the draft in Matt Jones and Samaje Perine and in undrafted free agents like Rob Kelley.  Darkwa isn’t necessarily an elite breakaway threat, but demonstrated quality top-end speed at Tulane’s 2014 Pro Day, running 4.44 in the 40 yard dash.  He isn’t the three down back that the Redskins will ultimately need to acquire, but if the team wants to stabilize the run game and not spend a high draft pick on the position this year, Darkwa could be a decent low-cost pickup.  Plus, for whatever reason, the Redskins seem to have a penchant for Tulane players.  He is an unrestricted free agent this year and has said positive things about the Giants, although New York hasn’t given any indication whether they intend to try to keep him.  Contractually, he could be likely signed for a modest 2 or 3 year deal in the $2M-$3M average annual value range without a big cap hit.

Wildcard

Le’Veon Bell – 6’2”, 203 lbs; 26 years old

Objectively, Le’Veon Bell is certainly the #1 free agent running back this year.  He’s one of the top backs in the NFL, a 3-time Pro Bowler, and a 2-time first team All-Pro.  Bell was a 2013 second round pick by the Steelers from Michigan St.  Over the course of his pro career, he’s rushed for 5,336 yards in 1,229 carries for an average of 4.3 yards per carry, and 35 touchdowns, and he’s had 312 receptions in 397 targets for 2,660 yards and 7 more touchdowns.  Bell is clearly an elite three down back who would be an outstanding addition to the Redskins or any of the 31 other teams.  If he keeps up this pace of production for a few more years, he will be in the discussion for Hall of Fame induction.  Bell has two significant problems, however, which caused me to leave him off this list. First, he’s had a ton of carries in five seasons, including 321 this past year.  In recent NFL history, only a handful of backs have continued to remain productive after breaking the 300 carry mark in one season; in fact, most start their inevitable decline after reaching that mark.  Second, Bell played the 2017 season on the exclusive franchise tag at a cap hit of $12.12M, and has been engaged in something of a war of words with the Steelers for over a year regarding his contract.  Bell wants a large, max money 5 year deal that would demolish the existing record contract for running backs, and the Steelers thusfar have not offered what he wants.  Pittsburgh has apparently threatened to tag him again, for the second year in a row.  There’s almost no chance that he hits the free agent market, and if he did, his contract demands – even if he for some reason would settle for a one year “prove it” deal (which he won’t) – would be well out of the range the Redskins should sanely spend this year on a running back.  In other words, he’d be a great Redskin, but not at the price he wants even if it was possible, which it isn’t.  If any of you have this dream, it’s time to let it go.

Somewhere, Vinny Cerrato is dreaming of a 5 year, $75M offer.

Others

#5 – Thomas Rawls; 5’10”, 215 lbs; 24 years old

Career: 34 gms/17 starts; 314 carries, 1,336 yds, 4.3 yds/carries, 7 TDs; 31 rec/41 tgts, 266 yds, 1 TD

2017 (Seattle): 12 gms/3 starts; 58 carries, 157 yds, 2.7 yds/carry, 0 TDs; 13 rec/9 tgts, 94 yds, 0 TDs

Rawls gained notoriety in his 2015 rookie year when he gained 830 yards at 5.6 yards per carry, but it’s been downhill ever since.   Rawls has talent and could potentially get back on track in the right situation.  He’s a restricted free agent.

#6 – Rex Burkhead; 5’10”, 210 lbs; 27 years old

Career: 52 gms/4 starts; 151 carries, 639 yds, 4.2 yds/carry, 8 TDs; 64 rec/81 tgts, 542 yds, 4 TDs

2017 (NE): 10 gms/3 starts; 64 carries, 264 yds, 4.1 yds/carry, 5 TDs; 30 rec/36 yds, 254  yds, 3 TDs

Burkhead was a 6th round pick by the Bengals in 2013, but barely played until 2016 when he gained 344 yards on 74 carries.  He played 2017 for New England on a one year deal and saw some success via the Belichick – Brady superhero machine.

#7 – Jerick McKinnon – 5’9”, 205 lbs; 25 years old

Career: 58 gms/14 starts; 474 carries, 1,918 yds, 4.0 yds/carry, 7 TDs; 142 rec/191 tgts, 984 yds, 5 TDs

2017 (MN): 16 gms/1 start; 150 carries, 570 yds, 3.8 yds/carry, 3 TDs; 51 rec/68 tgts, 421 yds, 2 TDs

McKinnon was a 2014 3rd round pick by the Vikings.  He’s only had modest production as a runner, but has done well as a receiver out of the backfield, which is a valued skill in Jay Gruden’s offense.

#8 – Jeremy Hill – 6’1”, 230 lbs; 25 years old

Career (Cin): 54 gms/43 starts; 704 yds, 4.1 yds/carry, 29 TDs; 67 rec/82 tgts, 484 yds, 1 TD

2017: 7 gms/7 starts; 37 carries, 116 yds, 3.1 yds/carry, 0 TDs; 4 rec/4 tgts, 16 yds, 0 TDs

Hill was a 2nd round pick from LSU by the Bengals in 2014.  He had an outstanding rookie year, gaining 1,124 yards on 222 carries for an average of 5.1 yards per carry, with 27 receptions for 215 yards.  He has not come close to that level of production since then.  He was placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury during week 10 last year.  The Bengals drafted his replacement last year in the form of the controversial Joe Mixon.

Conclusion

Taking Le’Veon Bell out of the equation, Carlos Hyde and Dion Lewis are clearly the best of this class and are the only two backs who could possibly be a three down back for the Redskins.  Both players could allow the Redskins to put off spending a high draft pick on a running back this year.  In my view, of the two, Hyde is the more likely to be the clear-cut, productive #1 back, and is thus ranked #1 on my list.  Lewis is talented and capable, but has less of a proven track record and benefitted from being with the Patriots.  Isaiah Crowell and Orleans Darkwa are more along the lines of first and second down power backs who could possibly provide what Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley thusfar have not: consistent production.

What do you think?  Let me know in the comment section below.

 

 

 

[1] All pro statistics and some background information courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com.  All college statistics unless otherwise noted are courtesy of www.sports-reference.com/cfb/. Combine statistics are courtesy of www.nfl.com.  Some biographical background information courtesy of Wikipedia.

[2] Sports-reference.com does not have Crowell’s Alabama St. stats.  His combined college stats are courtesy of Wikipedia.

[3] https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2018/2/16/17022158/cleveland-browns-free-agent-review-rb-isaiah-crowell

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