Game Preview, Week 16: Redskins at Titans
December 20, 2018
by Steve Thomas
The Redskins are incapable of going even one week without drama, apparently. This week, it was Montae Nicholson’s arrest as a result of an early-morning fight in the middle of a random Virginia street. If it’s not one thing with this team, it’s another. No worries – it’s just another week with the Redskins in the national news headlines. Somewhat lost in the midst of the chaos is the fact that the fate of Washington’s season is once riding on the outcome of this week’s matchup. It may be mathematically possible for the Redskins to make the playoffs at 8 – 8, but for all intents and purposes, this is it. A win is mandatory, and unfortunately a good team also fighting for their playoff lives in the form of the Tennessee Titans stands in the way. The Titans are a classic power running team featuring a back, Derrick Henry, who’s in the middle of a mad tear, and a highly capable quarterback who not only has slowly gotten better but has been aided tremendously by Henry’s incredible recent antics. The Redskins are led this week by what seems like their 438,980th quarterback of the year, Josh Johnson, who has the unenviable task of saving Washington’s season. Oh yeah, and this game is on Saturday in front of a national audience, and we all know how games like this usually go for Washington. A win is possible, but unlikely. On with the preview.
Game time & location: Saturday, December 22, 2018, 4:30 p.m. ET, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN; Gates open 2:30 p.m. ET; parking lots open 12:30 p.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Curt Menefee, Steve Mariucci, Nate Burleson, Melissa Stark
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Titans radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 226 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 81 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Titans roster: Click here
Titans depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Titans: 6 – 6 (last 5: 3 – 2) (streak: 2 – 0)
Last meeting: W, October 19, 2014, 19 – 17
Early odds: Titans, -10
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Stopping the big play is defensive job #1
The Redskins need to do a reasonably competent job keeping Derrick Henry from breaking huge, game-changing runs, or they will have a tough time getting a victory. Henry famously broke a 99-yard scamper against the Jaguars, but also had a number of long runs against the Giants. Linebackers Mason Foster, Zach Brown, and Shaun Dion-Hamilton need to play disciplined, gap-control defense this week, and keep Henry from turning the corner at the edges. As big as Henry is (6’3”, 250 pounds), he’s remarkable agile and does not move like a typical large power back. Henry won’t just run over defenders; he’ll try to use his agility and speed to beat them. If the Redskins can’t hold Henry down to a reasonable level, they probably can’t win this game.
Josh Johnson needs to continue to play his type of game
Hot take: quarterbacking is important. While it’s true that Johnson has elite speed and has the ability to be a run-first quarterback, it’s important that Johnson at least be enough of a passing threat to keep the Titans from stuffing the box to stop the combination of Johnson and Adrian Peterson. In his one and a half games for the Redskins thusfar, Johnson has showed an NFL-quality arm in terms of strength and accuracy; he’s just rusty, still learning the offense, and has a tendency to hold the ball too long. Regardless, Washington will need Johnson to perform at a fairly high level in order to win. Johnson will probably get his share of rushing yards, and he needs to, but watch for his passing efficiency and whether he commits turnovers.
Now’s the time for Adrian Peterson to get rolling again
I know that I’ve written this before, but this game, more than the previous contests, will depend on Peterson’s ability to efficiently gain yards. The Titans are a solid, probably top 10, defense, but they are better against the pass than the run. The Redskins are going to need to be able to move the ball on the ground in order to win the field position and time of possession game, and the presence of Josh Johnson notwithstanding, this effort starts and stops with Peterson. A good game from him is mandatory. As an added feature, he’s only 77 yards short of another 1,000 yard season, which is remarkable for a running back of his age.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Derrick Henry vs Mason Foster and Zach Brown
As I mentioned above, slowing down the Titans’ Derrick Henry is going to depend in no small measure on the play of Mason Foster and Zach Brown. Henry is not the second coming of Earl Campbell, despite the fact that the two are of similar size and played for the same franchise. Henry plays like a smaller back, and he knows how to use angles and speed to turn the corner and hit open gaps. Foster, Brown, and Dion-Hamilton need to be disciplined about their gap coverage this week and not make the same mistakes that has plagued this group, at least Foster and Brown, all year. If Foster and Brown take bad angles, abandon their gaps, and have trouble tackling, it could be a long day. Watch for how many plus runs Henry breaks; averaging 4 – 5 yards per carry is one thing, but a series of 10 yard+ runs could spell doom.
This may be an odd choice for a key matchup, but Davis is the Titans’ best receiving threat. If the Titans are going to open up their offense and be more than just The Derrick Henry Show, Davis is most likely going to be the prime candidate to do so. Norman needs to travel with Davis this week and keep him from being a big contributor. The Redskins need to be able to make the Titans one dimensional and key on stopping / slowing down Tennessee’s run game, and allowing Corey Davis to be a big weapon isn’t the way to do that. Norman needs to once again and earn his #1 cornerback money this week.
Adrian Peterson vs Everybody
As I said above, Peterson is the key to the offense this week. Unfortunately, the Titans know that and will focus on stopping him. He needs to perform at a high level, and to do so, it’s going to take a solid effort from the bruised and battered offensive line and enough of a passing game to at least keep Tennessee honest. The 2018 Redskins do well when Peterson is running consistently over 4 yards per carry, and when he doesn’t, they don’t do well. With rare exception, it’s been that simple all year. Watch for whether Peterson is posting rushing totals at something like 2 – 3 yards per carry, or whether things are going much better than that. If they are, it’s a good sign for Washington.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Thursday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Titans |
| CB J. Holsey, knee; Tues: DNP; Wed: IR; Thurs: IR | DT J. Casey, knee; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP |
| CB D. Johnson, knee/finger; Tues: DNP; Wed: IR; Thurs: IR | LB S. Finch, shoulder; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O |
| WR M. Harris, illness; Tues: not listed; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: Q | LB B. Orakpo, elbow; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O |
| QB C. McCoy, Fibula; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O | S B. Trawick, illness; Tues: DNP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP |
| T T. Nsekhe, knee; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: QNP; game: Q | WR T. Sharpe, ankle; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: Q |
| S M. Nicholson, NIR; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: NFI; game: NFI | TE C. Wick, shoulder; Tues: DNP; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; game: O |
| TE J. Reed, ankle/foot; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O | LB W. Woodyard, back; Tues: not listed; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP |
| LB R. Anderson, hamstring; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | RB D. Fluellen, knee; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; game: O |
| OL T. Bergstrom, knee/ankle; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | G J. Kline, knee; Tues: LP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP |
| DL M. Ioannidis, shin; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | QB M. Mariota, foot; Tues: LP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP |
| LB S. Dion-Hamilton, shoulder; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | S K. Vaccaro, concussion; Tues: LP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP |
| T M. Moses, ankle; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP | |
| RB A. Peterson, shoulder; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP | |
| DL T. Settle, pectoral; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | |
| T T. Williams, thumb/wrist; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP | |
| QB J. Johnson, ankle; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | |
| C C. Roullier, knee; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | |
| TE V. Davis, concussion; Tues; not listed; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; game: Q | |
| WR J. Doctson, lower back; Tues: no listed; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; game: Q | |
| T A. Howard, hip; Tues: not listed; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; game: Q |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
At this point in the season, the Redskins offense is what it is. It is not prolific, high-powered, or even good. This group is in the bottom ten of the NFL, or worse, in most important categories: points (28th), total yards (28th), passing yards (26th), red zone efficiency (24th as measured by touchdowns only), yards per play (28th), and more. The only category in which Washington’s offense is even mediocre is rushing. They are 17th in total rushing yards and 19th in rushing yards per attempt. For his part, Adrian Peterson continues to amaze for his age – his 221 carries is 5th in the NFL, and his 923 yards is 8th. Jordan Reed, who is injured and may not play the rest of the year, is still the team’s leading receiver, but his production is run-of-the-mill in terms of #1 options, with 54 receptions (23rd in the league) and 558 yards (66th). New quarterback Josh Johnson will have to use his ability to scramble to get the offense going against the Titan’s strong passing defense.
Defensively, the Redskins are average to below average across the board, although the Jaguars’ unbelievably poor outing last week helped somewhat. The Redskins are now 14th in total points surrendered, 18th in yards, and 28th on third down conversions. The saving grace of this defense has been its performance in the red zone – the Redskins are 7th-best in the NFL at preventing touchdowns in the red zone. Opposing quarterbacks are posting an average quarterback rating of 92.7, which is 13th, but is also aided by a horrific performance by Cody Kessler last week. The Redskins are still ranked well in interceptions, with 14 on the year, which is good for 8th in the league. Washington’s 6 sack performance against Jacksonville vaulted them up to 9th in that statistic.
Record: 7 – 7 (2nd, tied) (Away: 4 – 3; AFC: 1 – 2)
All-time franchise record: 600 – 588 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 28 (points) (trend even) / 28 (total yards) (trend -1) / 28 (yards per game) (trend -1) / 28 (yards per play) (trend even) / 26 (passing yards) (trend even) / 28 (passing yards per att.) (trend even) / 17 (rushing yards) (trend even) / 19 (rushing yards per att.) (trend even) |
| Points for | 265 |
| Yards per game | 315.3 |
| Passing
|
458 att (23rd); 285 comp; 62.2% comp per. (23rd); 6.6 Y/A; 2822 net yds; 15 TD; 12 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (328 att, 2180 yds (29th), 62.5% comp perc (25th), 10 TDs / 5 Int, 85.7 QB rating (26th) |
| Receiving leader | Reed (558 yds (66th), 84 tgts (46th), 54 rec (53rd), 2 TD, 10.3 YPC) |
| Rushing | 368 att (14th); 1592 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 113.7 Y/G (17th); 12 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (221 att (5th), 923 yds (7th), 7 TD, 4.2 Y/A (36th), long 90) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 38 / 19 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:18 / 11 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 36.6% / 24 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 54.63% / 24 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 14 (points) (trend even) / 18 (total yards) (trend +2) / 18 (yards per game surrendered) (trend +2) / 21 (yards per play) (trend +3) / 18 (passing yards) (trend +4) / 22 (passing yards per att.) (trend +2) / 18 (rushing yards) (trend -4) / 21 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -3) |
| Points against | 310 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 357.4 |
| Opponent’s passing | 478 att (16th); 316 comp; 66.1% comp perc. (23rd); 7.6 Y/A; 3371 net yds; 23 TDs; QB Rating 92.7 (13th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 352 att (13th); 1632 yds; 4.6 Y/A; 11 TD; 116.6 Y/G (18th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 40 / 9 / Kerrigan (11.0) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (115) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 14 / 8 / Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 42.69% / 28 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.11% / 7 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 19.5 Y/R (29th), 25 returns, long 44 yards (17th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.0 Y/R (28th), 15 returns, long 30 yards (19th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 22.0 Y/R (12th), 12 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 9.8 Y/R (25th), 29 returns, 1 TD |
| Punting | 45.1 Y/P (15th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 16 / 25 / +9 / 4
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 105 / 29
Titans:
The Titans haven’t scored many points throughout the season (27th), haven’t gained many yards (27th), and haven’t been impressive in the air (30th in passing yards, 91.9 quarterback rating for Marcus Mariota), but don’t be fooled: running back Derrick Henry has rushed for more than 400 yards and averaged more than 8 yards per carry over the past two games. Also, Mariota is better than advertised and has completed 68.6% of his passes. Tennessee has only had 383 pass attempts on the season, which is the second-fewest in the NFL. Make no mistake, this is a running team that has become even more of a running team over the past two weeks, so some of these season average statistics are not fully reflective of the capability of this offense. Also, the Redskins and the Titans have both played the Giants and the Jaguars in the past two weeks, and while Washington turned in the stinker of all stinkers against the Giants and squeaked by Jacksonville, the Titans shut out the Giants and beat the Jaguars 30 – 9.
Defensively, Tennessee is the real deal. This team is 2nd in the NFL in total points surrendered, 7th in total yards, 8th in average passer rating, and first in the entire league in red zone defense as measured by touchdowns surrendered. This defense does not have many weaknesses and is solid across the board, although are a little less stout against the run, at least from a statistical perspective. The Titans have given up an average of 4.3 yards per carry over the season, for 1,544 yards. This isn’t exactly a weakness, per say, but the Titans are better at stopping the pass, and they aren’t doing it with turnovers (only 8 interceptions) and sacks (36, which is 16th). They are just playing strong defense.
Finally, the Titans feature the best kickoff return team in the NFL and have committed the fewest turnovers of any team in the league.
Record: 8 – 6 (2nd) (Home: 5 – 1; NFC: 3 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 430 – 462 – 6
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
27 (points) / 27 (total yards) / 27 (yards per game) / 26 (yards per play) / 30 (passing yards) / 14 (passing yards per att.) / 5 (rushing yards) / 14 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 268 |
| Yards per game | 317.8 |
| Passing | 383 att (31st); 258 comp; 67.4% comp per. (10th); 7.5 Y/A; 2618 net yds; 14 TDs; 10 Int |
| Passing leader | Mariota (318 att, 2418 yds (25th), 68.6% comp per., 11 TDs / 8 Int, 91.9 QB rating (23rd)) |
| Reception leader | Davis (798 yds (26th), 100 targets (26th), 57 rec (43rd), 4 TD, 14.0 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 411 att (6th); 1831 yds; 4.5 Y/A; 130.8 Y/G (5th); 14 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Henry (178 att (16th), 882 yds (11th), 11 TDs, 5.0 Y/A (12th), long 99 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 44 / 26 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:14 / 15 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 41.1% / 11 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 53.49% / 23 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 2 (points) / 7 (total yards) / 7 (yards per game surrendered) / 9 (yards per play) / 6 (passing yards) / 5 (passing yards per att.) / 12 (rushing yards) / 13 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 254 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 329.0 |
| Opponent’s passing | 475 att (14th); 300 comp; 63.2% comp per. (10th); 6.9 Y/A; 3062 net yds; 17 TD; QB Rating 88.4 (8th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 359 att (15th); 1544 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 8 TD; 110.3 Y/G (12th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 36 / 16 / Casey (7.0) |
| Tackles leader | Woodyard (89) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 8 / 26 / Byard (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 34.83% / 5 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 42.11% / 1 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 34.0 Y/R (1st), 17 returns, long 94 yards, 1 TDs |
| Punt returns | 8.8 Y/R (12th), 24 returns, long 38 yards (15th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 27.9 Y/R (32nd), 22 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 9.2 Y/R (22nd), 32 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 46.8 Y/P (5th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 15 / 13 / -2 / 21
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 71 / 1
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com
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