2019 Draft Preview: Quarterbacks
April 12, 2019
by Steve Thomas
Quarterbacks – the most important position in team sports. The position that gets the most attention, the most money, praise, and blame. With only a handful of exceptions in the history of football, Super Bowl-winning teams all have quarterbacks who can perform at an elite level week after week, year after year: the ubiquitous “franchise” quarterback. Unfortunately, the history of the Washington Redskins isn’t exactly littered with that type of quarterback. With apologies to Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, and Billy Kilmer, the truth is that Sammy Baugh, Sonny Jurgensen, and Joe Theismann constitute the entire list of true franchise quarterbacks in the 86 year history of the team. Not that the Redskins haven’t tried – Washington’s draft history is littered with players who were supposed to be the next big thing, but for various reasons, weren’t (***takes a deep breath***): Jay Schroeder, Heath Shuler, Gus Frerotte, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell, Robert Griffin III, and Kirk Cousins, and that’s just over the last 30 years and doesn’t include the scores of other even more mediocre quarterbacks who have come and gone. So, the odds of the team finding “The One” in the 2019 draft are slim, simply because the Redskins historically are very, very bad at it. The Redskins are the person you know who’s still single in his or her 40s, serially dating year after year because every relationship eventually goes up flames. At some point, this person should start examining themselves and stop blaming others. This where the Redskins are, but unfortunately, this franchise is run by Dan Snyder’s bestie Bruce Allen, who is great at deluding himself into thinking everything’s fine and then lying to the public about it. As a result of years of football PTSD, I’m not hopeful that 2019 is going to be any different. Let’s take a look at the options anyway – cheers! And to those of you who think I’m being too negative, I say you’re welcome for telling you the unvarnished truth.
The 2019 Redskins currently have the very injured Alex Smith, long-time backup and somewhat injured Colt McCoy, and new arrival Case Keenum on the roster. It isn’t a revelation to say that none of those players are this team’s future, even assuming Alex Smith can make his way back to the field at some point, which is far, far from reality. It’s therefore entirely appropriate for the team to consider spending a top draft pick on a quarterback (or trade for Josh Rosen, which is a separate column for another day). The front office has unsurprisingly been a little vague about where this quarterback will be drafted, if one is drafted at all, so we’ll take a look at some prospects across all seven rounds. As I always say, I’m not a scout, #notascout. My rankings and writeups here are based on my own film study, statistical analysis, and by reading the analyses of professional experts.
1. Dwayne Haskins, 6’3” / 231, Ohio St. He’s the overall top quarterback in the draft. Haskins redshirted his freshman year at Ohio St. in 2016 and played in a total of 22 games in 2017 and 2018, completing 413 passes in 590 attempts, for a 70% completion percentage, 5,396 yards, 54 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Haskins is a one year starter, having served as J.T. Barrett’s backup in 2017, but was selected as a Third-Team All-American this past season. At the NFL Combine, he ran the 40 yard dash in 5.04 seconds and jumped 28.5 inches in the vertical leap. Haskins is a classic NFL pocket-passing quarterback with a big arm even by NFL standards. He is extremely accurate in the short to mid-range, but less so deep. He is probably the top quarterback in this class at progressing through his reads, even though he’s not perfectly developed yet. He is known to have outstanding leadership qualities. It is noteworthy that Haskins was aided by a stable of outstanding receivers, nearly all of whom possess elite speed. Haskins’ principal weakness is his lack of athleticism. This is not a quarterback who is going to be able to scramble for significant yards in the NFL or put pressure on defenses due to his ability to run the ball. Haskins is a pocket passer with a quick release and who could be ideal in Jay Gruden’s version of the west coast offense, although he’s not quite as effective when moving outside the pocket. He’s the most pro-ready quarterback in this class and has the highest floor of anyone. His ceiling may not be as high as some other top quarterbacks in previous years, but he should develop into a franchise quarterback. Haskins is almost universally ranked as either #1 or #2 in in the quarterback group by analysts and is expected to be a top 10 draft pick, so it’s unlikely that he will be available to the Redskins at 15. There’ve been rumors over the past week that Haskins’ stock may be dropping. I don’t believe that for a minute, because top quarterbacks only rarely drop (Okay, yes, Aaron Rodgers). If he if he unexpectedly drops to somewhere between 10 – 14, though, the Redskins should consider trading up to acquire him.
2. Kyler Murray, 5’10”[1] / 207[2], Oklahoma. Murray began his college career at Texas A&M in 2015, where he initially saw limited action as the backup to Kyle Allen, but later won the starting job. He then elected to transfer to Oklahoma and sat out the 2016 season in order to do so. Murray backed up Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield in 2017, then became the Sooner starter in 2018. In total, Murray played in 29 games in his college career, including one year as the starter, with 350 completions in 519 attempts, 67.4% completion percentage, 5,406 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, won the Heisman Trophy, and was a First Team All-American. He only participated in interviews at the Combine and did not run at the Oklahoma pro day, so there isn’t a trustworthy 40 time for Murray. His most impressive attribute is his athleticism – he’s electric and a constant threat on the ground, but Murray is much more than that. He has a much stronger arm than one should expect from a quarterback of his short and slight stature – it’s a legitimate big-time NFL quality arm. He is accurate and can read the field from the pocket. Murray at his best is a more dynamic version of Russell Wilson. However, he was aided tremendously last season by outstanding wide receivers who were constantly wide open, several terrible Big 12 defenses, and the best offensive line in the country. There’s no doubt that Murray’s success and numbers were boosted by those advantages. His principal weakness, though, is his very small size. Murray somehow, for the first and only time in his life, improbably measured 5’10” at the Combine, but frankly he doesn’t look like he’s actually 5’10”. Even if he is a true 5’10”, he’ll still be one of the shortest quarterbacks in NFL history. Also, his true playing weight is probably in the 190 pound range, not 207. Murray overcame his height deficiency fairly well at Oklahoma, but his film did show that he had an occasional tendency to throw off his back foot when defenders were in his face, causing the ball to sail and be inaccurate, whereas taller quarterbacks would be able to adjust better. Murray will need to have a specific offense built around him in the NFL in order to maximize his effectiveness and talent, and will not be a fit for every team. He has tremendous talent, but comes with several big risk factors not normally associated with a #1 overall pick. Murray is ranked #1 in his class by most analysts, with a minority viewing him as #2 behind Haskins. He’s expected to be drafted in the top 5, perhaps as high as #1 overall to Arizona, but I view him as the #2 quarterback prospect and a mid round 1 player.
3. Drew Lock, 6’4” / 228, Missouri. Lock started for 3 and a half seasons at Mizzou, playing in 50 games, with 883 completions in 1553 attempts, for a 56.9% completion percentage, 12,193 yards, 99 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions. He was a First Team All-SEC selection in 2017 and a Second Team All-SEC selection in 2018. At the NFL Combine, Lock ran 4.69 in the 40 yard dash. Lock’s best trait is his arm. He has the most natural arm talent in the class, including Haskins and Murray. His arm strength and ability to fit the football into tight windows is elite even by NFL standards, and will probably cause him to be drafted higher than he should be. When he’s “on”, the ball absolutely jumps off out of his hand. He’s a very experienced starter by college standards, dwarfing the experience of both Haskins and Murray. However, Lock’s film shows inconsistent mechanics and sometimes bizarre footwork, both of which negatively effect his performance. He also regularly has a few “what’s he thinking” type of throws, probably born from his faith in his arm. Lock’s wide receivers had awful hands, dropping many and having a tangible effect on his completion percentage. Despite that, though, Lock’s deficiencies are important and in my view make him a riskier candidate than either Murray or Haskins. NFL teams will likely be enamored with his huge arm and overdraft him, believing that pro coaching can fix his problems. I view him as a high second round pick due to his negative traits, but he will very likely be a mid-first round pick, if not higher.
4. Jarrett Stidham, 6’2” / 218, Auburn. Stidham began his collegiate career as a backup at Baylor in 2015, but became the starter halfway through the season; however, he transferred to Auburn in the wake of Art Briles’ dismissal due to the sexual assault scandal at Baylor. He joined Auburn for the 2017 and 2018 seasons, playing 27 games for the Tigers. He played a total of 37 games in three seasons in his college career, with 545 completions in 848 attempts, for 7,217 yards, a 64.3% completion percentage, 48 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The story of Stidham’s college career is that he peaked in 2017 (246 completions / 370 attempts, 66.5% comp. perc., 3,158 yards, 18 TDs / 6 int), and regressed in 2018 (224 completions / 369 attempts, 60/% comp. perc., 2,794 yards, 18 TDs / 5 int) and probably should have stayed in school one more year. Stidham was a First Team All-SEC selection in 2017 but was not honored in 2018. He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.81 seconds at the Combine and is athletic enough to move fairly well on the field. Stidham has a good, but not great arm by NFL standards – he can make all the throws but is a step behind the top three quarterbacks. Auburn’s offense is very simplistic and not close to a pro-style system, so between that and his need to get his “mojo” back after a down 2018, Stidham will need an adjustment period and a good situation to succeed. At his best, though, Stidham is a starting-quality NFL quarterback. Quick reads, slant routes, and short passes were a staple of Auburn’s passing game. He would be a good fit for a west coast offense. Most analysts have him rated below Duke’s Daniel Jones, at a least, and some rank him significantly lower. Stidham will probably be drafted in the third or fourth round.
5. Daniel Jones, 6’5” / 221, Duke. Jones redshirted his 2015 freshman year at Duke, then started in 2016, 2017, and 2018, playing a total of 36 games in three seasons, with 764 completions in 1,275 attempts, for a 59.9% completion percentage, 8,201 yards, 52 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions. He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.81 seconds at the NFL Combine. Jones has classic NFL size, is experienced, and does most things fairly well on the football field. He doesn’t have a cannon of an arm – it’s mediocre by NFL standards, but it’s good enough to make all of the necessary throws. He is somewhat athletic, has good intangibles, has been described as an outstanding leader, and played for a highly-respected college coach in David Cutcliffe. His receivers didn’t help him much by dropping many balls, but on the other hand, the porous defenses Duke played also left them wide open on many occasions. Jones’ problem is that he’s mediocre by most evaluations, both statistically and via the eye test. He does not have the look of a player who will be able to become a franchise NFL quarterback who can carry a team year after year, and that’s fine if he’s drafted in the right place and expectations are measured. The problem is that his positives (size, experience, intangibles) have some NFL teams and analysts very excited about him, leading many to believe he may be overdrafted. Jones should not be a first round pick, or even a second round pick, but he almost assuredly will be, and that’s when teams get themselves into trouble. He’s not going to be a franchise NFL quarterback, but may be drafted in a place where he is expected to become one. When drafted appropriately into the right situation and given manageable expectations, Jones can succeed. I view Jones as a third – fourth round pick, but I expect him to be drafted as high as round one, possibly by the Redskins, and that would be a mistake.
6. Will Grier, 6’2” / 217, West Virginia. Grier began his college career at Florida in 2014, when he redshirted. He saw some playtime as a redshirt freshman in 2015. Grier tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs and received a one year suspension that began on October 12, 2015. Grier then transferred to West Virginia, sitting out the entire 2016 season due to the NCAA’s transfer rules. He then started the 2017 and 2018 seasons for the Mountaineers. Grier played a total of 28 games in college, completing 621 of 945 passes for a 65.7% completion percentage, 8,556 yards, 81 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. He earned Second Team All-Big 12 honors in 2018. Grier ran the 40 yard dash in 4.84 seconds at the Combine. He has an average at best arm by NFL standards, is fairly athletic, and has some ability to scramble when necessary. West Virginia did not play in a pro-style offense, but he was highly successful in that system. Grier doesn’t hold the ball; he gets rid of it fairly quickly, but was not asked to make multiple reads very often. He has a bit of a “gunslinger” mentality, but lacks the arm to make the most of that kind of mindset. From a technique standpoint, what stood out to me in his film is his elongated, slow throwing motion, which could have an effect on his ability to be successful in the NFL. Ultimately, Grier’s lack of arm strength will probably keep him from being a long-term NFL starter. He’s ranked as high as fifth by some analysts. I view him as a fourth or fifth round prospect, but it’s possible that some NFL teams rate him higher because of his experience and attitude.
7. Ryan Finley, 6’4” / 213, North Carolina St. Finley, who is already 24 years old, began his college career at Boise St. in 2013 He redshirted that year, then served as a backup in 2014. He won the starting job in 2015 but suffered a season-ending ankle injury in week 3. Finley then transferred to North Carolina St. where he played the next three seasons, and was a fifth year senior in 2018. In total, Finley played 46 games, completing 938 of 1,461 passes for 11,147 yards, 64.2% completion percentage, 63 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions. Statistically, 2018 was Finley’s best season – he posted a 67.2% completion percentage, through 25 touchdowns, and was a First Team All-ACC selection. He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.73 seconds at the NFL Combine. Like most college prospects, he played almost exclusively out of the shotgun. He is very experienced and continued to develop and get better throughout his collegiate career. As his stats prove, Finley is accurate; however, he does not often progress through his reads, is prone to staring down his receivers, and has bouts of questionable decision-making. Finley is yet another mid-tier prospect with an average arm by NFL standards. Some analysts view him as the best of the mid-tier quarterbacks, but he is probably a third or fourth round prospect.
8. Clayton Thorson, 6’4” / 222, Northwestern. Thorson spent 5 years at Northwestern, having redshirted his freshman year in 2014. He went on to start for the next four years, playing a total of 53 games, completing 991 of 1,696 pass attempts, with 10,731 yards, 58.4% completion percentage, 61 touchdowns, and 45 interceptions. He was a Third Team All-Big Ten selection in 2017, but was not honored in 2018. Like Finley, Thorson’s best assets are that he’s very experienced, has good size, and clearly possesses high-quality leadership ability. He has a below average arm by NFL standards. His film shows that he has consistent trouble on deep sideline routes and is prone to inconsistency. He’s better in the short passing game than he is on his deep balls. Thorson seems to have a limited ability to read the field. Thorson’s destiny is most likely as a career backup, but he’ll be a competent and respectable pro. I expect him to be a day three selection.
9. Tyree Jackson, 6’7” / 249, Buffalo. Jackson redshirted his 2015 freshman year, but started for Buffalo in his final three years. He played in a total of 32 games in his college career, completing 533 of 955 passes for 6,999 yards, a 55.8% completion percentage, 49 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. Jackson ran the 40 yard dash in 4.59 seconds at the NFL Combine, which is an outstanding time for any quarterback, let alone someone who is 6’7”. Jackson has an absolute cannon for an arm, on a par with, or perhaps even stronger than, Drew Lock. NFL teams will be enamored by his amazing combination of size, athletic ability, and arm strength. However, Jackson’s film shows that, despite being a three year starter, he is very raw in terms of his technique. Jackson’s mechanics are all over the place – he does not have a tight, compact throwing motion and probably never will due to his length. The most disconcerting thing about Jackson, though, came from this week’s guest on The Hog Sty podcast, draft analyst Jordan Reid (@JReidNFL; click here to listen to his interview). Reid stated that Jackson processes his reads very slowly, which causes his throws to be late, and tries to make up for it by using his arm strength. I can understand an NFL rookie having this problem (see Rosen, Josh), but when you’re at the University of Buffalo, this is extremely disconcerting. His bust risk is high. Jackson is primed to be overdrafted as a result of his physical characteristics, but the truth is that he is probably worthy of an early day three selection at best.
10. Brett Rypien, 6’2” / 210, Boise St. Rypien started for three and a half years at Boise St. after taking the job over halfway through his freshman year. In total, he played 50 games in four years, completing 1,035 of 1,617 passes for 13,578 yards, a 64.0% completion percentage, 90 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions. Rypien earned First Team All-MWC honors in 2015, 2016, and 2018. He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.91 seconds at the NFL Combine. Rypien is a favorite of Redskins fans, in no small part due to his last name, so allow me to cruelly burst your bubble: Rypien will not be a starting NFL quarterback. His game film shows that he simply does not have the arm talent. Rypien has great technique and throwing motion, and is very accurate, but his arm talent is severely lacking by NFL standards – think less than Colt McCoy and a bit more than Pat White. Also, while he’s a “high motor” type of quarterback, he isn’t athletic enough by NFL standards, particularly for a quarterback of his smallish size, to make up for his poor arm by putting pressure on defenses with his legs. Some analysts place him as high as a mid-round grade, but I believe he’s a day 3 prospect at best, and might end up being undrafted.
Other prospects to watch out for:
11. Trace McSorley, 6’0” / 202, Penn St. Undersized, poor college statistics, can be accurate, but is athletic and a runner.
12. Easton Stick, 6’1” / 224, North Dakota St. Four year starter and three year team captain. Replaced Carson Wentz. Outstanding intangibles and leadership qualities, but has a poor arm by NFL standards.
13. Jordan Ta’amu, 6’3” / 221, Mississippi. NFL size and arm strength. Quality runner. Very inconsistent and can’t read the field well.
In conclusion, of this group, there are three at the top, Haskins, Murray, and Lock, then everyone else. The way this draft seems to be shaking out, it’s not impossible to think that the Redskins may have a shot at Haskins by trading up just a few spots, and Lock at 15. To me, Drew Lock is not worthy of the 15th pick in spite of his arm. The Redskins are rumored to like Daniel Jones, who would be an . . . unfortunate . . . pick at 15. In my opinion, the truth of the matter is that unless Washington can grab Dwayne Haskins in round one, they should pass in favor of filling other needs and wait until the mid rounds to draft a quarterback like Jarrett Stidham, Ryan Finley, or Will Grier as a developmental prospect.
What do you think? Let me know in the comment section.
[1] Supposedly. I have my doubts.
[2] With rocks in his pockets.