2020 Draft Preview: Quarterbacks

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March 12, 2020

by Steve Thomas

Welcome to another edition of our continuing series on the 2020 draft.  We do this so you, our loyal readers, can be as informed as possible as we begin to head into the silly season of the draft.  Thusfar, we’ve covered the following position groups:

In terms of quarterbacks, the Redskins are obviously in a dramatically different position this year than they were 12 months ago.  Back in the 2019 offseason, everyone on planet earth knew that Washington was going use a high draft pick on a quarterback because of Alex Smith’s injury.  This year, short of the new front office doing something crazy and dumb like dumping Dwayne Haskins and drafting Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa with the second overall pick, the Redskins’ quarterbacking needs this year are found in back of the draft, developmental types.  Therefore, whereas my quarterback preview from last year focused heavily on the top-end prospects, this year, I’m going to give you some analysis of the top of the draft prospects, but also some info on a few bottom end of draft candidates who might be in the Redskins’ wheelhouse this year.  Overall, this isn’t a great quarterback class, but several prospects have talent and potential to be solid pros.  Without further ado, let’s get started.

The Top 10 Prospects

1.  Joe Burrow, 6’3” / 221, 23, LSU: Burrow has had a circuitous route to the top of the college football heap.  He started out at Ohio St. in 2015 and redshirted his freshman year.  He then backed up J.T. Barrett in 2016 and 2017, then was beaten out by Dwayne Haskins for the starting job heading in to the 2018 season.  However, Burrow graduated from Ohio St. in three years and was thus eligible for an immediate transfer to LSU as a grad student for the 2019 season, where his stock went through the stratosphere as the starter for the national champion Tigers.  In total, between both universities, Burrow played in 38 games, with 945 pass attempts and 650 completions for a 68.8% completion percentage, 8,852 yards, 78 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.  In 2019, he started all 15 games, with 527 attempts, 402 completions, 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.  Burrow won the Heisman Trophy, the Maxwell Award, the Walter Camp Award, the Johnny Unitas Award, and the Manning Award, was named the AP College Football Player of the Year, and was a Unanimous First Team All American.  As a quarterback, he is hyper-accurate and displays big-game moxie, high levels of football intelligence, and was a well-liked team leader.  His downside is that he has average at best arm strength, so he will need to be in the right offensive system to make maximum use of his talents.  He is the near-unanimous #1 mock draft choice in the draft, and it seems at this point to be a foregone conclusion that he will become a Bengal.

2.  Tua Tagovailoa, 6’0” / 217, 22, Alabama: Tua spent three years at Alabama, playing in a total of 32 games, with 684 pass attempts and 474 completions for a 69.3% completion percentage, 87 touchdowns, 7,442 yards, and 11 interceptions. In 2019, he played in 9 games, with 252 pass attempts and 180 completions for a 71.4% completion percentage, 2,840 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  Tua’s problem has been injuries – he suffered a high ankle sprain in the 2018 SEC championship game, had another high ankle sprain in week 7 in 2019 against Tennessee that required surgery (which he came back from just 3 weeks later), and then suffered a season-ending and career-threatening hip displacement and fracture one week later against Mississippi St.  Tua has apparently made tremendous progress on his hip and is now supposedly healthy enough to return and play.  However, particularly given his small stature by NFL quarterback standards, his injury history should be a big concern for NFL teams.  As a quarterback, he’s the prototypical dual-threat quarterback with good speed and mobility (at least, pre-hip injury).  He has a stronger arm than Burrow and is just as accurate.  One of his negatives is that going through full NFL-style read progressions isn’t his strength, and Alabama’s offensive system, generally, doesn’t lend itself to development of that skill.  Burrow is probably the better prospect in terms of reading the field and anticipating throwing windows.  In addition, Tua is going to have to get better at protecting himself when running, certainly in light of his injuries.  Combining Burrow’s football IQ and ability to read the field with Tua’s arm and mobility would produce an All Pro, franchise-level quarterback.  Separately, however, both are lacking and are pretty big question marks by the standards of top of the draft quarterbacks.  The Redskins hold the #2 pick and most likely are at least trying to shop this pick for a possible trade down to a quarterback-starved team who would like to add Tua to their roster.

3.  Justin Herbert, 6’6” / 236, 22, Oregon: Herbert spent 4 years at Oregon, playing in a total of 43 games, with 1293 attempts and 827 completions, for a 64.0% completion percentage, 10,541 yards, 95 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. Herbert was named the Ducks’ starter halfway through his freshman year, but missed half of his sophomore year due to a fractured collarbone.  In total, he started 42 games in his college career.  In 2019, Herbert had 428 attempts, 286 completions, a 66.8% completion percentage, 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.  Herbert looks the part, has a huge NFL-quality arm and more mobility and pocket presence than you might expect.  However, he has a tendency to be wildly inaccurate at times, only rarely throws with touch, and has trouble throwing his receivers open.  Herbert will almost certainly be a first round draft pick.

4.  Jordan Love, 6’4” / 224, 21, Utah St.: Love redshirted his freshman year at Utah St., and then started for the next 3 seasons, with 38 total games, 1,125 pass attempts, 689 completions, 8,600 yards, a 61.2 percent completion percentage, 60 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions. In 2019, Love had 473 attempts, 293 completions, a 61.9% completions percentage, 3,402 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions.  He earned Second Team All-Mountain West honors in 2018 and Honorable Mention All-Mountain West honors in 2019.  Love has elite arm strength and can make some jaw-dropping, unbelievable throws, even by NFL standards.  The problem is that he has a tendency to indiscriminately throw into coverage, make stupid decisions, badly miss sometimes, and throw at his first read over and over again regardless of the coverage.  These flaws are why he has such a high interception number by first round prospect standards.  Love is a boom or bust project who needs to spend a year with professional coaching, but his big arm is probably going to get him drafted in the first round.  If he’s expected to play from game 1 for a bad team, it’s probably not going to go well.

5.  Jake Fromm, 6’2” / 219, 21, Georgia: Fromm played and started for three seasons at Georgia, completing 622 of 983 pass attempts for a 63.3% completion percentage, 8,236 yards, 78 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions.  In 2019, he played 14 games, completing 234 of 385 pass attempts for a 60.8% completion percentage, 2,860 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.  Fromm is a talented, smart quarterback who makes quality decisions, rarely makes dumb throws, and was a well-liked team leader at one of the top programs in the country.  His downside is that his arm strength is below average, to the point that I question whether Fromm can make small-window throws such as deep outs to the sidelines and crossing routes in the NFL at a starter level.  He also benefitted from the outstanding Georgia offensive line and didn’t experience much consistent pressure, normally operating from clean pockets.  Fromm may be limited to a west coast system where his physical limitations can be masked as much as possible.  If he had a stronger arm, Fromm would probably be a first round pick; as is, he’s probably a low day 2 pick.

6.  Jacob Eason, 6’6” / 231, 22, Washington: Eason began his collegiate career at Georgia, where he became an instant starter for the 2016 season.  However, he suffered a knee injury in the first game of his sophomore year in 2017 and lost his starting job to Jake Fromm during his absence.  Eason then transferred to the University of Washington and had to sit out the 2018 season.  He was the starter for the Huskies in 2019, posting 260 completions in 405 attempts for a 64.2% completion percentage, 3,132 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.  In his college career, he appeared in 29 games, with 268 completions in 782 attempts for a 59.8% completion percentage, 5,590 yards, 39 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Eason has a huge arm, with perhaps the best pure arm talent in the entire draft class, and it makes up for some of his deficiencies.  He can anticipate windows and throw his receivers open.  Eason was surrounded by subpar talent on a poor team, which hurt his numbers.  His downside is that his rocket arm leads to some poor decisions and strange mechanics.  He is a classic case of a quarterback having so much natural arm talent that he’s able to ignore some mechanical issues that matter more to others who lack his arm.  Eason’s arm alone will probably get him drafted on day 2.

7.  Jalen Hurts, 6’1” / 222, 21, Oklahoma: Hurts started his college career with Nick Saban at Alabama in 2016 and became the starter in his second game.  He held the job through the 2017 season before being benched in favor of Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the National Championship game that season.  He backed up Tua in 2018, then graduated from Alabama in December of that year and transferred to the University of Oklahoma for the 2019, where he started for the Sooners all season.  In total, Hurts played 56 games, with 1,047 attempts, 682 completions, a 65.1% completion percentage, 9,477 yards, 80 touchdown passes, and 20 interceptions.  In 2019, played 14 games, with 340 pass attempts, 237 completions, a 69.7% completion percentage, 3,851 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, and was the Heisman Trophy runner-up.  He is also a talented runner who averaged 5.3 yards per rush in college for 3,274 yards on 614 attempts and another 43 touchdowns.  Simply put, in my view, Hurts did not look like an NFL-level quarterback at Alabama.  He was a runner who lacked NFL arm strength and accuracy, rarely read the field, instead choosing to run at nearly every opportunity, and didn’t throw with anticipation.  However, he improved dramatically as a passer at Oklahoma and developed quality accuracy.  He’s never going to have elite arm strength or be a traditional NFL dropback, pocket passer, but between his tremendous running ability and improvements as a quarterback, if he’s drafted with the right team, he may be able to follow in the footsteps of today’s dual-threat quarterbacks – a poor man’s Lamar Jackson, perhaps, because he’s still not nearly the passer that Lamar was coming out of Louisville – to become successful in the NFL.  He could end up being a day 2 selection.

8.  Nate Stanley, 6’4” / 235, 22, Iowa: Three year starter who passed for 8,297 yards in 44 games. Good arm talent but inconsistent.  Could be a late day 2 selection.

9.  Steven Montez, 6’4” / 231, 23, Colorado: A three year starter with a fairly big arm, but has trouble with reads.  Mobile, but wasn’t a true dual threat in college.

10.  Anthony Gordon, 6’2” / 205, Washington St.: A gunslinger type who passed for 5,579 yards, but benefitted from Mike Leach’s Air Raid system. Has a weak arm and small frame.

Possible Redskins’ developmental choices

1.  James Morgan, 6’4” / 229, 23, Florida International: Morgan began his college career at Bowling Green in 2015, redshirted his freshman year, then transferred to Florida International in 2017 after the coach who recruited him to Bowling Green left.  In total, Morgan played 42 games, making 699 completions in 1,221 attempts for a 57.2% completion percentage, 8,654 yards, 65 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions.  In 2019, he played 12 games, making 207 completions on 357 pass attempts for a 58.0% completion percentage, 2,585 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.  Morgan has decent arm talent but displays inconsistent accuracy, as is evidenced by his low completion percentage.  He does have the ability to go through all of his reads, but has footwork and other mechanical throwing motion issues. Morgan can make all of the throws, but can have trouble pushing the ball deep.  He’s known to be an experienced, tough player who has the potential to be a good day 3 developmental prospect, but he needs pro coaching and time to make his mechanics more consistent.  Some analysts rate him higher than others, so it’s possible that Morgan doesn’t last to the back of the draft.

2.  Jake Luton, 6’6” / 224, Oregon St.: Luton played one year at the University of Idaho, the transferred to Ventura Community College for the 2016 season, then to Oregon St for 2017 – 2019.  He suffered a spinal injury in 2017 that limited that season to just 4 games and was not able to come back until the final 8 games of 2018.  In total, Luton played in 29 Division I games, with 496 completions on 797 attempts for a 62.2% completion percentage, 5,630 yards, 43 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.  He played 11 games in 2019, with 358 pass attempts, 222 completions, a 62.0% completion percentage, 2,714 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  Luton has at least an average NFL arm and has decent mechanics and accuracy.  He doesn’t always progress through his reads, has a tendency to lock onto his target, and misses deep.  Luton has the tools to become a decent developmental project and might be worth a day 3 pick by the Redskins to become a backup with time and coaching.

3.  Cole McDonald, 6’3” / 215, Hawaii:  McDonald is the latest high-flying quarterback to come out of the Rainbow Warriors’ pass-happy system.  He spent four years at Hawaii, but redshirted his 2016 freshman year and earned the starting job as a sophomore.  In total, he played 33 games, with 616 completions in 1,004 attempts, 8,032 passing yards, a 61.4% completion percentage, 70 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions.  In 2019, he had 326 completions in 511 attempts, 4,135 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, and earned Second Team All-Mountain West honors.  McDonald has above-average arm strength and can make all of the throws.  He has a tendency to display poor mechanics and is an upper body thrower with inconsistent feet, all of which contribute to accuracy problems.  He throws with flat feet, so it doesn’t appear as though he’s transferring his weight in his throwing motion.  Morgan knows that he has the arm to throw into tight windows, but that leads to both good and bad results because he doesn’t always make the best decisions.  He’s yet another back of the draft prospect with the natural tools to be a decent NFL quarterback if given time and the proper pro coaching.