How good is Dustin Hopkins, really?
October 21, 2020
by Steve Thomas
I’ve seen a rising amount of Dustin Hopkins hate recently, mostly from the Illuminati on the bane of human existence, Twitter, so I decided to do a quick bit of research into Hopkins to figure out just how good or bad he really is in comparison to other NFL kickers. Primarily, my objective was to determine whether Redskins WFT that’s awful the Team so is that Washington Football Team that sounds like a soccer team Washington fans are exaggerating or whether there is something to the shade being thrown his way. Be forewarned – this effort started out as a single tweet, then became a string of tweets, then expanded to what I originally intended to be a very short, quick post, and finally in typical Steve Thomas fashion, over time morphed into something much larger. Feel free to skip to the end.
Background
Hopkins was born in Austin, Texas, in 1990 and went to high school in the Houston suburbs. He played his college ball at Florida St. and was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the 6th round of the 2013 NFL draft. Hopkins won the Bills’ kicking job during the 2013 training camp but suffered a groin injury before game one and was eventually placed on injured reserve without getting any regular season kicks. Buffalo brought him back for the 2014 season, but he lost the team’s kicking competition that year and was cut in training camp. The New Orleans Saints signed Hopkins to their practice squad in December, 2014, and kept him for their 2015 training camp. However, Hopkins again lost the kicking competition and was cut at the end of training camp that year as well. The Redskins signed him on September 14, 2015, after cutting Kai Forbath, and he has remained with the team ever since. He signed a three year extension in 2018 and will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season.
Stats
Hopkins’ career stats[i][ii] are as follows:
| Career: 77 games played
● 131 of 156 FG made, 84.0%, long 56 ● 29 yards or less: 41 of 42, 97.5% ● 30 – 39 yards: 40 of 43, 93.0% ● 40 – 49 yards: 39 of 49, 79.6% ● 50 or more yards: 11 of 22, 50% ● extra points: 148 of 156, 94.9% |
|
| 2015: 15 games played
● 25 of 28 FG made, 89.3%, long 54 ● 29 yards or less: 7 of 7, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 9 of 9, 100% ● 40 – 49 yards: 7 of 8, 87.5% ● 50 or more yards: 2 of 4, 50% ● extra points: 39 of 40, 97.5% |
2016: 16 games played
● 34 of 42 FG made, 81.0%, long 53 ● 29 yards or less: 12 of 12, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 12 of 14, 85.7% ● 40 – 49 yards: 7 of 9, 77.8% ● 50 or more yards: 3 of 7, 42.9% ● extra points: 36 of 39, 92.3% |
| 2017: 8 games played (missed 8 due to injury)
● 14 of 17 FG made, 82.4%, long 49 ● 29 yards or less: 8 of 8, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 2 of 2, 100% ● 40 – 49 yards: 8 of 10, 80.0% ● 50 or more yards: 2 of 3, 66.7% ● extra points: 21 of 22, 95.5% |
2018: 16 games played
● 26 of 29 FG made, 89.7%, long 56 ● 29 yards or less: 5 of 5, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 7 of 7, 100% ● 40 – 49 yards: 10 of 12, 83.3% ● 50 or more yards: 4 of 5, 80% ● extra points: 25 of 26, 96.2% |
| 2019: 16 games played
● 25 of 30 FG made, 83.3%, long 53 ● 29 yards or less: 7 of 8,87.5% ● 30 – 39 yards: 8 of 9, 88.9% ● 40 – 49 yards: 7 of 8, 87.5% ● 50 or more yards: 2 of 4, 50% ● extra points: 39 of 40, 97.5% |
2020: 6 games played
● 7 of 10 FG made, 70.0%, long 48 ● 29 yards or less: 2 of 2, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 2 of 2, 100% ● 40 – 49 yards: 3 of 5, 60.0% ● 50 or more yards: 0 of 1, 0% ● extra points: 9 of 10, 90.0% |
How do his stats compare to his peers?
Only twenty kickers played in the NFL every year between 2015 and 2020 and have also had 75 or more in-game field goal attempts during that period. Please note that I excluded 6 kickers who are currently active and have 75 or more attempts, but who entered the NFL later than the 2015 season. Also, I included one kicker who was active between 2015 and 2019 and who is now a member of a practice squad this season. Of those 20 kickers who meet these criteria, Hopkins is ranked 13th in total field goal percentage, with 84% made. Justin Tucker with the Ravens has been the best overall kicker in the NFL during this timeframe, with 91.4% made (181 of 198). The worst is Nick Folk at 79.4% made (67 of 84). Therefore, by this criteria, Hopkins is slightly below average but still in the approximate middle tier of kickers.
Of this group of 20 kickers, only 6 have remained with their respective teams for all 6 seasons, including Hopkins (yes, I know that Kai Forbath kicked in game 1 for the Redskins in 2015; I ignored that). Of that group, Hopkins is ranked 5th at 84.0% (131 of 156), with Brandon McManus of the Broncos trailing him at 83.2% (144 of 173). The top four kickers in this group are the aforementioned Tucker, Chris Boswell with the Steelers in 2nd place at 87.6% (134 of 153), Matt Prater with the Lions in 3rd place at 85.9% (146 of 170), and Mason Crosby with the Packers at 85.7% (126 of 146).
Of those 6 kickers who have been with the same team for all 6 seasons, the chart below shows each kicker’s respective percentage made at each listed distance over the 2015 – 2020 time period:
| Tucker:
● 29 yards or less: 43 of 43, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 51 of 52, 98.1% ● 40 yards or less: 94 of 95, 98.9% ● 40 – 49 yards: 61 of 66, 92.4% ● 50 or more yards: 26 of 37, 70.3% |
Boswell:
● 29 yards of less: 39 of 39, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 42 of 47, 89.4% ● 40 yards or less: 81 of 86, 94.2% ● 40 – 49 yards: 45 of 56, 80.4% ● 50 or more yards: 8 of 11, 72.7% |
| Prater:
● 29 yards or less: 40 of 40, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 41 of 44, 93.2% ● 40 yards or less: 81 of 84, 96.4% ● 40 – 49 yards: 36 of 46, 78.3% ● 50 or more yards: 29 of 40, 73.0% |
Crosby:
● 29 yards or less: 30 of 30, 100% ● 30 – 39 yards: 44 of 49, 89.8% ● 40 yards or less: 74 of 79, 93.7% ● 40 – 49 yards: 39 of 48, 81.3% ● 50 or more yards: 13 of 20, 65.0% |
| Hopkins:
● 29 yards or less: 41 of 42, 97.5% ● 30 – 39 yards: 40 of 43, 93.0% ● 40 yards or less: 81 of 85, 95.3% ● 40 – 49 yards: 39 of 49, 79.6% ● 50 or more yards: 11 of 22, 50% |
McManus:
● 29 yards or less: 41 of 43, 95.3% ● 30 – 39 yards: 44 of 45, 97.8% ● 40 yards or less: 85 if 88, 96.6% ● 40 – 49 yards: 37 of 46, 80.4% ● 50 or more yards: 22 of 39, 56.4% |
This chart shows us that, first, Justin Tucker has been the best kicker in the NFL by far. He’s only missed 1 kick under 40 yards in the last 6 years. All of the rest of these 6 kickers have missed more. Second, Hopkins is less accurate over 50 yards than the rest of these 6 kickers. That conforms to what Redskins / Washington observers have believed about him for years. Third, all of these guys are extremely reliable under 40 yards – all have percentages of 93.7% and up. Tucker missed only 1, but all 5 of the rest, including Hopkins, have between 3 and 5 misses, which is essentially a statistically irrelevant difference. Hopkins’ percentage on kicks between 40 and 49 yards is about the same as all of of the rest except for Tucker, who as I said is just better than everyone else.
I also looked at cumulative field goal percentage by team between 2015 – 2020 (through week 6), regardless of individual kicker responsible, because as I showed above, 26 of the 32 teams have had more than one kicker. By this measure, Washington’s 84% – which is Hopkins’ 84% plus Nick Rose’s 10 of 11 when Hopkins was briefly injured in 2017 and a 1 for 2 effort by Forbath in week one in 2015 – is ranked 18th. However, Washington is right in the middle tier: the median point[iii] of the data set was 84.4%, and the variance[iv] was just 0.1%. 10 teams had a field goal percentage of less than 85.0% and more than 83.0%. The Ravens, 49ers, and Giants were the best by this metric, with 91.4% (thanks to Justin Tucker), 88.9%, and 88.3%, respectively. The worst teams in the NFL were the Tennessee Titans, San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at 79.2%, 77.2%, and 74.3%, respectively. Washington has achieved essentially league average results while avoiding the hassle that a rotating cast of kickers every year brings.
To put Hopkins into further context, in the five years prior to Hopkins’ arrival in Washington, which were the 2010 – 2014 seasons, the Redskins kickers collectively made 124 of 159 field goal attempts, which is a 78.0% success rate. This is 6% less than Hopkins’ career make rate of 84%, and to achieve that 78%, Washington had to cycle through 4 different kickers in those 5 seasons.
Conclusion
So what does all of this mean? Is he great? No. But he doesn’t suck, either, as many people seem to think. Put in the simplest terms, Dustin Hopkins is an average NFL kicker in terms of accuracy amongst those kickers who’ve been in the NFL during the 2015 – 2020 seasons. Washington as a team is about average at this statistic, too – things could be both better and much worse. Hopkins is reliable in terms of his production and kicking percentages, and that has quite a bit to do with why he’s been able to hang around all of these years.
Of the 6 kickers who’ve kept their jobs with one team since the 2015 season, overall, Hopkins is solidly within that group in terms of his production. Only Justin Tucker is significantly better. Where Hopkins is a bit worse than the top kickers is over 50 yards. But overall, Hopkins is a solid if unremarkable kicker who is reliable and basically does his job on a regular basis. That’s not easy to find. I didn’t research this, but I suspect that his percentage made over 50 yards is probably at least as good or better than the average NFL kicker who bounces around the free agency world every couple of years. Don’t forget, many teams have a rotating cast of kickers in training camp every season as they seek to find what Washington has had since 2015.
After going through this exercise, I think Dustin Hopkins’ long tenure with this team is a case of the Washington management having found a decent and consistent kicker who basically always makes his kicks under 40 yards, and therefore is making a choice to not “chase the dragon” of continually trying to find someone else better. Consistency is important – Hopkins has been achieving basically the same results ever since 2015, and not many kickers can do that. Teams often go through quite a few kickers before finding someone like Hopkins. Washington went down this road for a long time before Hopkins came around.
It will be interesting to see what head coach Ron Rivera chooses to do with Hopkins when his contract expires at the end of the year. Hopkins is only 30 years old and while his 2020 season hasn’t started off particularly well, there’s a long way to go this year and I suspect that if he again ends up in the range of about 84% overall, then Washington might re-sign him. I would recommend that Rivera do so should he ask me, and I’m sure he will.
So, enough, people. Stop the hate. Hopkins doesn’t suck. He’s average. #NoMoreHopkinshate.
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UPDATE:
Here is a list of the field goal percentages for every Washington kicker from 1950 to the present who had more than 50 attempts with the team:
| Rk | Player | From | To | G | FGM | FGA | FG% |
| 1 | Kai Forbath | 2012 | 2015 | 40 | 60 | 69 | 87 |
| 2 | Dustin Hopkins | 2015 | 2020 | 77 | 131 | 156 | 84 |
| 3 | Shaun Suisham | 2006 | 2009 | 49 | 81 | 101 | 80.2 |
| 4 | John Hall | 2003 | 2006 | 39 | 54 | 69 | 78.3 |
| 5 | Brett Conway | 1999 | 2002 | 35 | 52 | 69 | 75.4 |
| 6 | Graham Gano | 2009 | 2011 | 35 | 59 | 80 | 73.8 |
| 7 | Scott Blanton | 1996 | 1998 | 33 | 44 | 60 | 73.3 |
| 8 | Chip Lohmiller | 1988 | 1994 | 112 | 175 | 245 | 71.4 |
| 9 | Mark Moseley | 1974 | 1986 | 179 | 263 | 397 | 66.2 |
| 10 | Curt Knight | 1969 | 1973 | 70 | 101 | 175 | 57.7 |
| 11 | Charlie Gogolak | 1966 | 1968 | 29 | 32 | 57 | 56.1 |
| 12 | Bob Khayat | 1960 | 1963 | 40 | 38 | 74 | 51.4 |
[i] All raw data is courtesy of Pro Football Reference at https://www.pro-football-reference.com. The team percentages of field goals made and the median and variance calculations are my own.
[ii] Please note that I did not account for blocked kicks or bad snaps in this piece. It became too much brain damage to separate out those variables even for me, because I suspect that (1) both of those are very rare, and (2) probably is fairly irrelevant from a statistical perspective. Blocks and bad snaps happen every once in a blue moon, very rarely, to all teams.
[iii] The median point is a term used in statistical analysis to indicate the “middle” of a data set. In other words, Washington is almost exactly in the middle of the NFL in terms of field goal percentage.
[iv] Variance is a term used in statistical analysis to indicate the spread of the numbers of a certain data set. Here, a variance of 0.1% is very small, indicating that many teams have around the same result. This is verified by the 10 teams that are more than 83% and less than 85%.