Game Preview, Wild Card Weekend: Tampa Bay at Washington
January 8, 2021
by Steve Thomas
As improbable as it seems, welcome to the 2021 NFL playoffs, everyone! At 7 – 9, Washington earned a home playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which at first glance seems like a tough game for Washington. All hope is not lost, however: Washington found a way to stand up to more than one good team in the second half of the season and has a widely-respected pass rush and quality defensive backs. So it isn’t quite an “abandon all hope, ye who enter here” (100 Hog Sty points to anyone who can identify that quote without help from Google) situation, but although the Redskins Washington is certainly facing an uphill battle on Saturday night. No one, and I mean no one, including the fans, every thought Washington would find themselves in the playoffs this year, so to some extent, they are playing with “house money”, so to speak, and will hopefully play loose and relaxed. I’ll preview everything here, so read on.
Game time & location: Saturday, January 9, 2021, 8:15 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Waldorf, MD; no fans
Television: NBC
Television announcers: Mike Tirico, Tony Dungy, Kathryn Tappen
TV broadcast map: national broadcast
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Washington radio network: click here
Eagles radio network: click here
Satellite radio: XM: 225 / 88 (Wash. broad; nat’l broad) Sirius: 211 / 88 (Wash. broad / nat’l broad.); internet: 831 (Wash. broad.)
Redskins roster: click here
Redskins depth chart: click here
Buccaneers roster: click here
Buccaneers depth chart: click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Buccaneers: 11 – 10 – 0 (last 10: 5 – 5; streak: 2 – 0)
Last meeting: W, November 11, 2018, 16 – 3
Early odds: Buccaneers, -8
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
The front 4 must pressure Tom Brady
The book on Tom Brady has always been to pressure him with the defensive front four in order to keep more players in coverage. It’s very hard to beat him if he isn’t under intense pressure. Brady has a lightning quick release and rarely misses reads, so it’s imperative that the front 4, meaning Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Chase Young, need to play their best game of the season and hit Brady with regularity in order to have a chance.
Mistake-free zone coverage
The other half of beating a Tom Brady-led team is playing mistake-free in the secondary. Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, and he rarely misses an open receiver. Throw in the fact that Tampa Bay has a big-time receiving corps, and that means that Washington can’t afford even one mistake on Saturday. One weakness of Washington’s defense all season has been the propensity to give up big plays, particularly in the secondary. Washington can’t give up cheap touchdowns to wide-open receivers if they are going to have any shot at all of winning this game.
Quarterback production
The Buccaneers have the NFL’s best run defense, and Washington’s ground game is substandard, to put it mildly. Washington therefore can’t count on their running backs to produce any substantial contributions in this game. Alex Smith, and if he can’t go, Taylor Heinicke, needs to play efficient, mistake-free football. Washington can be successful by dinking and dunking their way down the field as they’ve been doing all year, but they simply cannot commit turnovers. The main reason why Smith’s quarterback rating is low by his standards this year is the high number of interceptions he’s thrown, even though some of them have not been his fault. Washington can’t afford a single interception on Saturday and need to be able to move the ball with regularity without a running game.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Mike Evans and Antonio Brown vs Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby
Tampa’s receiver group has serious talent, and it isn’t just because of their quarterback. Crazy Pills signed with Tampa on October 27, and unfortunately he seems to be rounding into form, as his best game of the season came last week against Atlanta, when he had 11 receptions for 138 yards. His extensive personal problems aside, in his prime, Brown was a nightmare for defenses, and it appears that he’s at least getting close to that level again. For his part, Evans is obviously one of the top receivers in the NFL. These two represent a major challenge for Fuller and Darby, perhaps the biggest one of the season for them. This is probably the most important matchup of the game.
Rob Gronkowski vs Jonathan Bostic
Gronkowski is obviously one of the best tight ends in NFL history, even though he isn’t what he once was. Tight ends have traditionally tortured Washington’s defense, so Bostic, in particular, is on point to limit Gronkowski’s input. Clearly Gronkowski has the advantage here, but he’s nonetheless critical to Washington’s chances to limit Tampa’s high scoring offense to a reasonable level. This probably falls to Bostic more than anyone else, but he’ll obviously have help. Watch for the impact Gronkowski makes in the game.
Tristan Wirfs and Donovan Smith vs Chase Young and Montez Sweat
Wirfs was one of the most highly rated offensive lineman in the 2019 draft. Smith wasn’t as highly touted but is still a quality player. As I said above, Washington’s ability to put pressure on Brady from just the front four is critical. Washington’s tandem of Young and Sweat therefore will play a big role in this game and will need to match up with Tampa’s talented tackles in order to do so. Keep an eye out on this matchup throughout the game.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (active roster only) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful NL – not listed
| Washington | Buccaneers |
| T J. Allen, NIR; Tues: DNP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | CB C. Davis, groin; Tues: DNP; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; game: Q |
| LB T. Davis Sr., knee; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O | WR M. Evans, knee; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; game: Q |
| RB A. Gibson, toe; Tues: DNP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | DL J. Ledbetter, calf; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O |
| WR T. McLaurin, ankle; Tues: DNP; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | RB L. McCoy, NIR; Tues: DNP; Wed: FP; Thurs: DNP; game: Q |
| QB A. Smith, calf; Tues: DNP; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | OLB J. Pierre-Paul, knee; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP |
| LB K. Pierre-Louis, ankle; Tues: LP; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP; game: Q | RB R. Jones, finger/quad; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP |
| G B. Scherff, shoulder; Tues: LP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | DL N. Suh, NIP; Tues: NL; Wed: NL; Thurs: DNP |
| CB Kendall Fuller, knee; Tues: NL; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Washington:
Washington does not have a playoff-quality offense. Statistically, it is one of the least capable offenses in the NFL, having scored only 335 points, which was ranked 25th in the league for the season. They were 30th in total yards, 31st in yards per play, 25th in passing yards, 26th in rushing yards, and 28th in rushing yards per attempt. Washington ended up converting on third down at a rate of 39.11%, which was 23rd in the NFL. Washington was a passing offense, with 601 attempts (ranked 9th) and just 400 rushing attempts (ranked 25th).
Many of Washington’s final defensive rankings for the season are impressive: 4th in points, 2nd in total yards, 2nd in passing yards, 6th in sacks, and 4th in red zone defense. Their rushing defense numbers aren’t as good, but are at least mediocre: 14th in total rushing yards and 11th in rushing yards per attempt. This game against Tampa appears to be a “strength on strength” situation, with Washington’s #2 ranked passing defense facing one of the best quarterbacks ever in Tom Brady.
Record: 7 – 9 (1st) (Home: 3 – 5; NFC: 5 – 7)
All-time franchise record: 610 – 612 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 25 (points) / 30 (total yards) / 30 (yards per game) / 31 (yards per play) / 25 (passing yards) / 30 (passing yards per att.) / 26 (rushing yards) / 28 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 335 |
| Yards per game | 317.2 |
| Passing
|
601 att (9th); 389 comp; 64.7% comp per. (21st); 6.3 Y/A; 3465 net yds; 16 TD; 16 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (252 att (34th), 1582 yds (35th), 66.7% comp perc (114th), 6 TDs / 8 Int, 78.5 QB rating (31st) |
| Receiving leader | McLaurin (1118 yds (13th), 134 tgts (12th), 87 rec (18th), 4 TDs, 12.9 YPC(49th)) |
| Rushing | 400 att (25th); 1611 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 100.7 Y/G (26th); 18 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Gibson (170 att (18th), 795 yds (20th), 11 TDs (9th), 4.7 Y/A (19th), long 40) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 50 / 31 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 29:54 / 18 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 39.11% / 23 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 57.45% / 20 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 4 (points) / 2 (total yards) / 2 (yards per game surrendered) / 3 (yards per play) / 2 (passing yards) / 3 (passing yards per att.) / 14 (rushing yards) / 11 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 329 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 304.6 |
| Opponent’s passing | 529 att (4th); 330 comp; 62.4% comp perc. (3rd); 6.4 Y/A; 3068 net yds; 21 TDs; QB Rating 81.4 (3rd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 428 att (16th); 1805 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 14 TDs; 112.8 Y/G (14th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 47 / 6 / Sweat (9.0) |
| Tackles leader | Bostic (118) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 16 / 6 / Fuller (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 37.5% / 6 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 53.49% / 4 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 20.8 Y/R (21st), 31 returns, long 46 yards (19th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.7 Y/R (27th), 31 returns, long 22 yards (21st), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 26.1 Y/R (27th), 9 returns (2nd), 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 5.8 Y/R (5th), 36 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punting | 48.0 Y/P (5th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 27 / 23 / -4 / 24
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 87 / 17
Tampa Bay:
To no one’s surprise, Tom Brady is leading an elite-scoring offense. Tampa has scored 492 points, which is third-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers are 7th in total yards and 2nd in passing yards. However, they are not a good rushing team, being ranked 29th in net rushing yards and 27th in rushing yards per attempt, despite Ronald Jones’ 5.1 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay is ranked 11th in red zone efficiency. Their offensive line has been outstanding in pass blocking, surrendering only 22 sacks all year, which was ranked 4th.
Tampa Bay’s defense has given up 355 points, which is ranked 8th. They are 6th in total yards and 21st in passing yards. However, by nearly every statistical measure, this is the #1 running defense in the NFL: they are 1st in total rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, and rushing yards per game. They are ranked 14th in third down defense and 20th in red zone defense.
Record: 11 – 5 (2nd); Away: 6 – 2; NFC: 8 – 4)
All-time franchise record: 278 – 429 – 1
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
3 (points) / 7 (total yards) / 7 (yards per game) / 7 (yards per play) / 2 (passing yards) / 12 (passing yards per att.) / 29 (rushing yards) / 27 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 492 |
| Yards per game | 384.1 |
| Passing | 626 att (6th); 410 comp; 65.5% comp per. (16th); 7.6 Y/A; 4626 net yds; 42 TDs; 12 Int |
| Passing leader | Brady (610 att (2nd), 4633 yds (3rd), 65.7% comp per. (19th), 40 TDs / 12 Int, 102.2 QB rating (9th)) |
| Reception leader | Evans (1006 yds (18th), 109 targets (31st), 70 rec (33rd), 13 TDs, 14.4 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 369 att (29th); 1519 yds; 4.1 Y/A; 94.9 Y/G (29th); 16 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Jones (192 att (13th), 978 yds (12th), 7 TDs, 5.1 Y/A (8th), long 98 yds (1st)) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 22 / 4 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 28:54 / 24 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 43.46% / 11 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 68.85% / 7 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 8 (points) / 6 (total yards) / 6 (yards per game surrendered) / 6 (yards per play) / 21 (passing yards) / 11 (passing yards per att.) / 1 (rushing yards) / 1 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 355 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 327.1 |
| Opponent’s passing | 617 att (29th); 426 comp; 69.0% comp per. (29th); 7.0 Y/A; 3945 net yds; 29 TDs; QB rating 94.3 (18th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 358 att (1st); 1289 yds; 80.6 yds/game (1st); 3.6 Y/A; 10 TDs |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 48 / 5 / Pierre-Paul (9.5) |
| Tackles leader | White (140) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 15 / 11 / Davis (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 40.0% / 14 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 62.75% / 20 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 21.8 Y/R (19th), 25 returns, long 34 yards (29th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.9 Y/R (25th), 30 returns, long 21 yards (23rd), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 33.6 Y/R (32nd), 23 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 10.3 Y/R (26th), 23 returns, 1 TDs |
| Punting | 45.2 Y/P (15th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 17 / 25 / +8 / 6
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 84 / 13
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com