Draft Preview 2021: Quarterbacks

Posted on April 21, 2021 by Steve Thomas

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April 21, 2021

by Steve Thomas

Welcome to another edition of The Hog Sty’s draft preview series. This is what we’ve covered thusfar:

Washington’s quarterback room currently consists of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, and Steven Montez. Fitzpatrick obviously has had a long NFL career with a number of different teams, but at 38, he’s not the future for this team. Heinicke, Allen, and Montez are all essentially prospects, so there’s no doubt that Washington needs to find its franchise quarterback of the future. The team being in a position this year to draft one of the top quarterbacks who are projected to be starters seems unlikely absent a trade up. Nevertheless, we’re going to discuss the possibilities here. This ranking is my non-expert ranking based on my personal observations and/or study, so take them for what you will. I don’t claim to be an expert.

#1 – Trevor Lawrence, 6’6” / 220, Clemson: Lawrence is the unanimous projected #1 overall pick in the draft and is the highest rated quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012. Lawrence is a true junior who played in 40 games for the Tigers, including 36 starts, with 758 completions in 1,138 attempts, for 10,098 yards, 66.6% completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt, 90 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. He only played in 10 of 12 games in 2020 as a result of a positive coronavirus test, but completed 231 passes in 334 attempts, 3,153 yards, 69.2% completion percentage, 9.4 yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. There’s a reason Lawrence is so highly thought of – he has it all, from significant collegiate experience, high-pressure game success, size, athleticism, and a strong, accurate arm. He’s one of the few collegiate quarterbacks who already possesses the ability to routinely progress through his reads, which is an incredibly valuable skill. Lawrence fit the ball into NFL-level tight windows on a regular basis at Clemson. He’s also far more mobile than most quarterbacks who are of equal height. Everyone has weaknesses, and Lawrence’s are that he can be a bit inaccurate at times, didn’t come through in two big games, and made some unnecessary turnovers. Plus, people should always be a bit leery of any quarterback coming from one of the top programs in the country, simply because it’s tough to know how much the incredible talent around the quarterback propped him up. In this case, though, in my view, Lawrence is as safe of a pick as it gets, and the Jacksonville Jaguars should run to the podium to draft him at #1.

#2 – Justin Fields, 6’3” / 223, Ohio St.: Fields is another guy who, like Lawrence, seemingly has all the natural gifts necessary to be an NFL franchise quarterback. He started his college career at the University of Georgia in 2018, but transferred to Ohio St. and was allowed to immediately play in 2019 in lieu of sitting out a year pursuant to the NCAA’s transfer rules after his attorney successfully argued that a racial incident at Georgia was a mitigating circumstance. In total, he played in 34 games in three seasons, including 22 games in two seasons as the Buckeyes’ starter, with 423 completions in 618 attempts, 5,701 yards, 68.4% completion percentage, 67 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He played just 8 games in 2020 as a result of the impact of the China Virus on Ohio St.’s schedule. Fields has a cannon for an arm, and is accurate and athletic. He isn’t quite a consistent as Lawrence at reading the field, but he does have the ability to do so to a limited extent, and is mostly able to keep his eyes downfield. He does have a tendency to hold the ball to long and elongate his throwing motion sometimes, which will need to improve in the NFL. We should all be a little wary of Ohio St. quarterbacks because they don’t have a very good history of success in the NFL, including Washington’s most recent bust, Dwayne Haskins. This is in no small part due to the incredible talent advantage Ohio St. holds over nearly all of its opponents, which makes life dramatically easier on its quarterbacks. All in all, though, he’s a very high-quality prospect who almost certainly go in the top 5. I have him ranked #2 because of his impressive physical gifts and high ceiling.

#3 – Zach Wilson, 6’3” / 210, BYU: Wilson and Fields are almost neck and neck in my subjective rankings, with Wilson slightly lower due to his lesser athleticism. Wilson is yet another true junior, having spent three years at BYU, with 30 games played, 28 starts, 566 completions in 837 attempts, a 67.6% completion percentage, 7,652 yards, 56 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. In 2020, he played 12 games, with 247 completions in 336 attempts, 73.5% completion percentage, 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Wilson is somewhat athletic, albeit not on the level of Lawrence and Fields. His real skill is that he is able to routinely throw with anticipation from the pocket like quality NFL quarterbacks can do, and that’s rare for a college quarterback. That alone makes him worth a high draft pick. He has a strong arm, but it is not at the level of Lawrence and Fields. He routinely tries to sling balls into tight, NFL-level windows, albeit sometimes when he shouldn’t. BYU, being independent, played a softer schedule than most power 5 conference teams, and this was particularly true in 2020, so that leaves open some questions of how well he’ll do in his transition to the NFL. All in all, though, Wilson has the look of a quality NFL starter. He’s very likely a top 5 pick.

#4 – Mac Jones, 6’3” / 214, Alabama: Jones is the latest offering from a school which, like Ohio St., has a long history of quarterback draft busts (with Tua Tagovailoa’s fate remaining to seen); however, he has real potential to be the best of the bunch. He’s a redshirt junior, having spent a total of four seasons with the Crimson Tide. Jones played in 30 games in 3 seasons, but only started 17 games, which includes 4 in 2019 because of injuries to Tagovailoa. In total, he completed 413 passes in 556 attempts, 74.3% completion percentage, 6,126 yards, 11.0 yards per attempt, 56 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. In 2020, Jones played and started 13 games, with 311 passes in 402 attempts, 77.4% completion percentage, 4,500 yards, 11.2 yards per attempt, 41 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He has a couple of character concerns, starting with a DUI arrest in 2017, and a racist photo from 2012 allegedly posted by his sister on Twitter allegedly featuring Jones in a mask (it’s not evident that it’s Jones in the photo; I’m not going to link to it or debate it here – you can search for it and argue about it on your own). From a football perspective, Jones isn’t nearly as athletic as other first round prospects, but is a high-quality pocket passer who can throw with touch and anticipation. He is able to go through his progressions in a way that isn’t normally seen at the college level. His downside is his lack of arm strength – he’s average by NFL standards. Also, as mentioned above, it’s always fair to wonder whether Alabama quarterbacks are a product of the team’s overall talent level, which is immensely superior to nearly every opponent, and that question exists with Jones as well. What will happen when Jones is under a pass rush he’s never faced before while leading a bad NFL team against superior opponents? That remains to be seen. Jones is projected to go as high as #3 overall, although a minority of analysts have him ranked slightly lower because of the issues detailed above. In my view, Jones’ skillset projects as a quality NFL pocket passer, and that’s a quarterback who has a chance to succeed in the pros.

#5 – Kyle Trask, 6’5” / 240, Florida: Trask is a redshirt senior who spent a full five years at Florida. He didn’t see the field at all in his first two years, but played in 27 games between 2018 and 2020. He became the full time starter early in the 2019 season, eventually starting a total of 22 games. In his collegiate career, Trask completed 552 passes in 813 attempts for a 67.9% completion percentage, 7,386 yards, 9.1 yards per attempt, 69 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In 2020, he played and started 12 games, completing 301 passes in 437 attempts, 68.9% completion percentage, 4,283 yards, 9.8 yards per attempt, 43 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Trask is strictly an unathletic pocket passer, which is hurting him in pre-draft rankings. He’s also been the beneficiary of one of the most highly rated receiving tight ends in years, Kyle Pitts, as well as a highly rated draft-prospect receiver, Kadarius Toney. He comes across as an NFL-ready passer who will be able to make the transition to the pro level fairly easily, but who has natural physical limitations and a ceiling that may prevent him from becoming an elite franchise quarterback. He’ll need to be placed into a system that fits his skillset, as his arm talent is so-so by top of the draft standards. Trask seems to be falling on many draft boards but it projected by most to be either a second or third round pick.

#6 – Davis Mills, 6’4” / 222, Stanford: Mills stayed at Stanford for four years, but didn’t get any playing time as a freshman. He became the starter midway through the 2019 season, and then suffered through a shortened 2020 season as a result of the PAC 12’s irrational response to the coronavirus pandemic. In total, he played in just 14 games in three seasons, with 287 completions in 438 attempts, 65.5% completion percentage, 3,468 yards, 7.9 yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. In 2020, he played 5 games, making 129 completions in 195 attempts, for a 66.2% completion percentage, 1,508 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Mills has experience playing under center in a pro-like offense, which is positive. He can play from the pocket and has at least a moderately strong arm, but doesn’t always progress through all of his reads. He usually can only read half of the field at a time. He also isn’t particularly athletic. Mills’ biggest weakness is his lack of playing time. His lack of a true 2020 season hurt Mills, and he would have benefitted from finishing out his college eligibility at Stanford. He’s projected by most to be a second or third round pick. A minority of scouts have him ranked above Trask, but I think Trask’s greater college experience at the position and better arm talent make him a slightly better prospect.

# 7 – Trey Lance, 6’3” / 225, North Dakota St.: I’m sorry, but I don’t get the Trey Lance fascination, at all. This is a player with a high physical ceiling, but who comes with major risks and red flags. Lance is a redshirt sophomore, having spent 3 years at North Dakota St., and played in 19 games, including 17 starts, with 208 completions in 318 attempts, 65.4% completion percentage, 2,947 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Lance only played one game in 2020, against Central Arkansas in October, before the Bison’s season was postponed as a result of the coronavirus epidemic. The Bison resumed their season in February, but Lance bowed out to prepare for the draft. He did not start or play much in 2018, either, just one pass attempt for 12 yards and 8 rushes for 82 yards in 2 games. Therefore, he only has one season of real collegiate playing experience, in 2019, albeit a full 16 games thanks to North Dakota St.’s run through the playoffs to the FCS Championship. Lance is loaded with potential and athletic ability – he is a major threat on the ground and has a very strong arm. However, he’s a “one read and go” quarterback on a team that featured a rushing-based offense. He completed a total of just 208 – that’s two hundred eight – collegiate game passes, which is a stunningly low number for a high first round prospect, a problem that is exacerbated by North Dakota St.’s much lesser FCS (what used to be called I-AA) competition. As a passer, he does have the ability to sling balls into tight spaces, but he also lacks accuracy on deep balls, even to wide open receivers, lacks anticipation and touch, and has a tendency to float passes in a manner that would cause interceptions in the pros. This is a player with whom NFL teams are enamored because of his combination of athleticism, arm strength, and potential. However, he’s a huge risk as a round 1 prospect because of his extremely low amount of playing time, his lack of sophistication as a passer, and low-level of competition in college. In no way has Lance demonstrated that he’s ready to jump from a collegiate FCS offense to top of round 1 NFL star who may go to a bad team that expects him to start immediately. To me, that has disaster written all over it. He should have stayed in college another year. This is a classic case of NFL coaches seeing a player with natural talent and believing that they can develop him into an NFL player. I may be totally wrong, and Lance may pan out – I hope he does – but he’s most likely going to need a very patient coaching staff who are willing to give him both significant time and a very specific offensive system in order to succeed. In my view, in the best case scenario, he’s a less talented, less athletic, much less experienced and tested, smaller, riskier, FCS version of Cam Newton coming out of Auburn. In the worst case, he’s an outright bust. It looks like some team is going to draft him in round 1, probably top 10, maybe top 5, but I personally rate him as a 2nd or 3rd round developmental prospect because of his risks as a prospect.

#8 – Kellen Mond, 6’3” / 215, Texas A&M: Mond strikes me as a high quality, experienced, productive college quarterback whose destiny is probably as an NFL backup. His best asset is his experience: he is a four year starter who played in a total of 46 games in 4 seasons, completing 801 passes in 1,348 attempts (more than four times more than Lance), for a 59.0% completion percentage, 9,661 yards, 7.1 yards per attempt, 71 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions. In 2020, Mond played 10 games, with 188 completions in 297 attempts, a 63.3% completion percentage, 2,282 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 19 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Mond has a strong arm, but isn’t always accurate and typically doesn’t get past his first read. He will most likely need to go to a team which is willing to be patient enough to allow him to sit behind a starter for a couple of seasons in order for him to have a chance at becoming a starter himself. Mond is viewed by most as a third round talent, but a minority of evaluators rank him higher.

#9 – Feleipe Franks, 6’6” / 228, Arkansas: He played 37 games, 530 completions in 860 attempts, 61.6% completion percentage, 6,700 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, 55 touchdowns, 21 interceptions. Franks spent four years at Florida, redshirted in 2016, then transferred to Arkansas for his final year of eligibility. He missed all but four games in 2019 due to a broken ankle. He is very tall, has a strong arm, and is an accurate thrower, but he also has a long, delayed windup and strange mechanics. He’s not mobile at all. Franks can be a quality NFL quarterback if given time and put in the right situation.

#10 – Jamie Newman, 6’4” / 230, Tulane and Georgia: Newman planed 19 games, 306 completions in 506 attempts, 60.5% completion percentage, 3,959 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, 35 touchdowns, 16 interceptions. He spent four years at Wake Forest, but redshirted as a freshman in 2016 and earned the starting job halfway through the 2018 season. Newman decided to transfer to Georgia for his final year of eligibility, but then opted-out of the season due to the coronavirus pandemic and didn’t play for the Bulldogs. He has a strong arm, much more accurate in short to mid-range than deep. Newman isn’t seen as someone who throws with anticipation or who can go through progressions on a regular basis. He lacks experience for someone who spent five years in college. Newman is a developmental project who would have benefitted from a 2020 season.

#11 – Sam Ehlinger, 6’2” / 220, Texas: Ehlinger played 46 games, with 923 completions in 1,476 attempts, 62.5% completion percentage, 11,436 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 94 touchdowns, 27 interceptions. He battled for the starting role as a freshman and eventually claimed the job for good as a sophomore. Ehlinger is very experienced for a college prospect. He’s a dual threat quarterback whose best skill is running, not passing. He’s inaccurate and has below average arm strength. Ehlinger is known as a respected leader. Say hello to Colt McCoy’s slightly bigger spiritual cousin. He is a developmental day 3 prospect with backup potential.

#12 – Ian Book, 6’0” / 205, Notre Dame: Book played 45 games, 728 completions in 1,141 attempts, 63.8% completion percentage, 8,948 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, 72 touchdowns, 20 interceptions. He’s a redshirt senior who earned the starting job for good halfway through the 2018 season. Book is undersized but is a good, athletic runner. He has below average arm strength but is accurate on the run. Book is seen as being a best fit for a west coast offense system. He’s a late round prospect.

#13 – Shane Buechele, 6’1” / 205, SMU: Buechele played 46 games, 952 completions in 1,508 attempts, 63.1% completion percentage, 11,660 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 87 touchdowns, 32 interceptions. He played at Texas from 2016 to 2018 before getting beaten out by Sam Ehlinger for the starting job and transferred to SMU for his final two years of eligibility. Buechele is known as a rhythm passer who has struggled with accuracy at times. He isn’t a dynamic runner but can effectively move and scramble in the pocket. He is undersized and has below average arm strength. Buechele is another late round developmental quarterback who could be a fit for a west coast offense system.