Can Washington Become A Contender?

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April 15, 2022

by David Earl

Carson Wentz Improved Chances

There is no question the talent Carson Wentz brings is a big upgrade over what they had in Taylor Heinicke. While we love Taylor’s story and his accomplishments should be recognized, we also need to be real too. One of the weakest parts of Taylor’s game, which seriously limited Scott Turner‘s offense, was his ability to stretch the field and force defenses to respect all 3 levels of the field. There was never a question about Taylor’s deficiencies beyond 20 yards and where his arm lacked, Wentz’s arm talent more than makes up for it.

While many can be skeptical of the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric but it shows performance based on a success rate involving down and distance compared to league average. Ignoring the speculation of Wentz’s locker room “Toxic” personality and just talking about his play on the field, his deep ball accuracy has always been his elite trait. He will make throws that will frustrate everyone but seeing a consistent deep ball for a change that will catch McLaurin in stride will outweigh those frustrations. As he may be far removed from his fantastic 2017 season that saw him a front runner for league MVP until he was injured, it is reasonable to expect a similar season like 2019 or 2020 as his floor projections. Considering the skill position players he will have now compared to those two aforementioned seasons is much better as a collective unit, a stat line of 4200/33/7/62 (Yards/TD/Int/QBR) is a safe number we all can realistically expect from Carson Wentz.

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Washington has the easiest projected SOS in the league, as the combined opponents’ record is 133-155-1 (.462).  They will not face a single elite quarterback as opposed to 5 last year plus three others who were easily in the top 5-8 range in the league. So as the offenses they faced were explosive nearly every week, 7 of their match-ups faced defenses in or near the top 10 in the NFL.  Despite that, they still walked away with a 7 win season. In a season in which the defense not only regressed and was without key starters most of the year, the quarterback position truly held back this offense in many winnable games against playoff-caliber opponents. Yes, we all loved Taylor’s moxie, football intelligence, pocket presence, and his intermediate game were above average, but his deficiencies downfield just made this offense one dimensional. When facing these playoff teams last season and losing a few winnable games as Washington did, it stands to reason last year alone Wentz wins Washington at least 2 more games right?

Taking that into account and looking forward to the 2022 season, this schedule sets Washington up nicely to take the next step forward. Aaron Rodgers is the one quarterback on the schedule who presents a true problem.  They are familiar with Dak Prescott, and nobody really knows whether Deshaun Watson will even play this season. The rest of the quarterbacks are arguably not even in the top 10-12 in the league with Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence being wildcards based on their progression. The defensive schedule is rather solid but if Washington’s defense plays to its potential then those games will come down to the quarterback play, and that slightly favors Wentz in most weeks. I’ll breaking down the schedule in a later article and give a way too early season projection.

Can Washington Contend?

The quick answer, in the most anticlimactic way possible, is NO! Before you hit that “X” button on this web browser hear me out for just a second. As I explained with the addition of Wentz and what he does for Scott’s offense plus the skill position players he has available being an upgrade as a unit, the off-field issues are just going to be too much this season. We have already heard the frustrations of Ron Rivera and Antonio Gibson, with how every time they take a step forward they are reminded of the off-field problems that continue to plague this organization which is certainly tiresome. It has just become painfully clear that while Dan Snyder owns this organization, the football team is forever destined for abysmal failure. Enough with the negativity, you scream!!! Fine, let’s remove the outside noise for now and just talk about the team looking purely from the football perspective with no outside distractions.

Division-wise, Washington definitely has an opening to come out on top, with Dallas as the only true threat. I have not forgotten about Philadelphia, but I just don’t see it with Jalen Hurts at this time and we fans know just how the quarterback play will hinder a team. Seeing how the irrelevant Giants will secure the basement  for1 more year, the Cowboys are the only true hurdle. On paper, Dallas has a formidable team stacked with talent everywhere but they’ve only ever proven to be paper champions as they continue to struggle against good teams every year. So as far as the division alone the addition of Wentz improves those odds significantly, but let’s look past the weak NFC East. Green Bay with Rodgers is weakened some with Davante Adams gone and the 49ers defense accompanied by Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes are both strong but beatable. Tampa Bay was a Super Bowl contender last year who Washington beat with an underperforming defense and with Heinickie at the helm, so yes, they are superior to Washington with Tom Brady back but also beatable. The point here that Washington can match up to these teams, and have a chance to, at the very least, steal the win, understanding that the Rams are just far superior to everyone in the NFC. No other team really scares me at this time but the offseason is long.

Looking at the 2022 schedule and comparing the overall opponents to the 2019 season, this year gives the defense a chance to right the ship. They won’t face a gauntlet of elite quarterbacks this year like last and, with the support of a potentially much improved passing game compared to the 2019 season, the defensive until could very well lead the charge again. This offensive line is an improved unit from 2 years ago, albeit not great, plus Antonio Gibson is another year better and J.D. McKissic coming back, we should see a much more explosive and dynamic offense this year, especially compared to the 2019 season. So an improved offense plus a defense, if healthy, that should get back on track this season can certainly make some noise heading into the playoffs. All that said my honest assessment of Washington as a contender this season (ignoring the off-field distractions) is that they are not quite there, as too many things just have to go right. Watching the NFL as long as I have, these types of teams need everything to just go perfect which is just something we never see happen in Washington. If one adds Dan Snyder’s scandals back into the fold, the team’s ceiling is around 1 playoff win IF everything aligns just right. Trust me, there is a lot of stretching going on here but it is also very early too so we’ll see. As far as the schedule again I will do a detailed breakdown in a way to early season predictions piece and maybe then I could alter my position. To be continued…