Free-Agents-To-Be in 2023 – Big Year, Big Decisions: Terry McLaurin

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April 20, 2022

By Paul Francis

As of the writing of this article, the Washington Commanders have 21 players slated to be free agents after the upcoming season (according to Spotrac).   This means 2022 is the prove-it year both for those individual players and for the team, whether it’s the player proving themselves worthy of a rich extension or the team proving itself capable of re-signing its own top talent.  I’ll be doing a mini-series profiling a few of the key free-agents-to-be and how they fit into the Commanders future plans, if at all.

We begin the series with the big one: Terry McLaurin.

In my opinion, not since Kirk Cousins has there been a Washington free-agent-to-be of greater consequence for the team than McLaurin.  Since he was selected in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft, he has exceeded expectations in every conceivable way.  On the field, his excellent all-around game earned him the nickname “Scary Terry” for the fear he can instill in opposing defenses.  Whether running deep routes, short routes, or screens; he has the ability to get open or catch contested balls, and the speed to break open the big play.  A wide receiver that doesn’t have an apparent weakness in his game, like McLaurin is hard to come by.

Player & Production

In 3 seasons, McLaurin has averaged 74 catches, 1030 yards, 13.9 ypc and just a shade over 5 TDs a year.  At face value, these numbers are pretty good.  But a deeper dive into Terry’s body of work tells an even better story.  Observers have offered various ways of illustrating just how effective and dynamic a wide receiver Terry McLaurin has become.  Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post did a statistical breakdown to show that McLaurin is the best Washington wide receiver since the days of The Posse.  Advance analytics continue to push Terry McLaurin towards the top of various receiving categories.  For example, after the 2019 season Pro Football Focus had Terry McLaurin ranked as the 2nd best rookie wide receiver of the decade (trailing only Odell Beckham Jr.’s rookie year), and was the only rookie to appear in their list of Top 25 receivers league-wide.  Last year PFF had McLaurin ranked 1st in the NFL in successful contested catches (25) and contested catch grade (93.1).  Rotowire’s 2021 advanced analytics have him ranked at the top of the league in Air Yards per Game and Air Yards per Snap.  In 2021, he also consumed a whopping 43% of Team Air Yards and 24.4% of Team Targets for the WFT.

Put simply, he is not only a top notch receiver league-wide, but he carries as much (if not more) of the receiving offense for Washington than virtually any other single wide receiver does for their respective team in the league.  His production only shines even brighter when you consider the Washington roster since 2019, and look at the quarterbacks who have been throwing him the ball, as well as the other pass-catchers around him.  He is a one man show, often getting double and triple covered along the way.  He doesn’t merely fit well into Washington’s passing offense, he IS the passing offense.

Off the field, McLaurin is a team captain and a face-of-the-franchise player.  He’s reputed to be a young man of remarkable character and work ethic.  Consider that he was a 3rd round pick, who wasn’t a “steal” at the time.  He’s put in the hard work as a pro and honed his game.  During the Commanders’ new brand reveal, McLaurin was featured prominently along with Jonathan Allen and Chase Young as the icons of the new era.  McLaurin is also one of the few bright stars for the Commanders with commercial appeal to a younger generation of fans.  All due respect to Jonathan Allen, but kids don’t grow up dreaming of being a defensive tackle.  On the other hand, wide receiver is a sexy skill position that generates highlight reels and sells jerseys.  If you caught my last column where I interviewed my 16 year old son, you may remember that he cites Terry McLaurin as one of the few reasons for teens of his generation to watch the Commanders.

Prospects for the Future

I probably have not said anything you don’t already know or think.  Which begs the question:

WHY ON GOD’S GREEN EARTH HASN’T THE TEAM SIGNED HIM TO AN EXTENSION????

This question takes on greater urgency considering the context of the Washington Commanders, who aren’t exactly known to be a franchise that has mastered the art of re-signing their own stars.  Especially with Brandon Scherff being the latest homegrown stud to “Kirk” the team, everyone is a bit on edge about Terry’s pending negotiations.

I’ll do my best to summarize the scuttlebutt on Terry’s situation, based on an amalgamation of tweets and updates that have been provided by the likes of Adam Schefter, John Keim, Grant Paulsen, Ben Standig and other sources:

As the Commanders begin voluntary offseason workouts on 4/18, Terry McLaurin plans to report, but not participate.  While the 2 camps have been tight-lipped about negotiations, initial talks took place at the Combine, but no offers were exchanged.  When the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, their free agent and negotiating posture changed as Wentz’s contract wiped out most of their cap space, and attention turned towards clearing new space and getting deals done with immediate free agents with what remained.  In June, when the draft has been completed and Landon Collins’s post-June 1 cap space clears, the Commanders will be in position to refocus on a McLaurin extension.  He has not asked for a trade, nor has the team shopped him.  Both sides seem like they want to get a deal done.  There is ongoing dialogue between Terry’s agent and the front office guys.  It’s just a matter of getting it done, and the 2 sides will reengage later in the summer – recall that last year, Jonathan Allen and Washington did not reach a deal until late July right before mandatory minicamp began.

So, there you have it.  So far so good.  Both sides like each other, and there’s simply been more immediately pressing needs, but a deal looks like it will happen…right?  No trade threats, holdout threats, tag threats or subtle social media drama.  Nothing to worry about here…right? Except, we worry here in Washington, and for good reason.  Being the only franchise in the NFL to twice tag “franchise” players we wanted to keep, only to see them walk for nothing after having been told publicly that everyone wants to get a deal done…that kind of institutional memory can linger.  Furthermore, as talks have sidelined, the receiver market has exploded with top-of-the-market megadeals being handed out to Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill.  This begs another question.  What could/should/would it take to sign McLaurin to an extension? Because he was only a 3rd round pick, he’s making an average annual salary of $961,000 on his rookie deal (according to Spotrac).  For added perspective on what an incredible steal McLaurin has been consider this.  In 2021, McLaurin was the fifth highest paid receiver on the roster, making LESS in base salary than Curtis Samuel, Cam Sims, Adam Humphries and DeAndre Carter.  But because he was not drafted in the first round, the team does not have an option on him next year.  His payday is coming, and boy is it due!

The negotiating knock against McLaurin is that he does not have a Pro Bowl or All-Pro season to his name, despite the praise and production so far.  Some view him as a quality jack-of-all-trades receiver, but a king of none who doesn’t belong in the elite tier of pass-catchers where Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill are making 27-30 million a year.  That’s a fair assessment.

In my opinion the negotiating approach should be to take the contract that Washington allegedly offered to Amari Cooper before the 2020 season as a template for McLaurin.  That offer supposedly was 5 years for $110 million with an average annual value of $22 million.  This would make McLaurin the 5th highest paid receiver in the NFL (right now) based on average annual value.  At the time of the supposed offer, Amari Cooper had slightly better career averages and had been to 4 Pro Bowls – a better negotiating resume than McLaurin has at the moment.

One might argue that $22 million per year is too much for McLaurin considering he’d be making more than repeat Pro Bowlers like Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, and even Amari Cooper himself.  But $22 million a year puts McLaurin right ahead of DJ Moore, who recently signed an extension, has comparable production, but also no Pro Bowl accolades.  I wouldn’t mind paying an extra bump to McLaurin given his overall value to the franchise and the team.

Conclusion 

At the end of the day, the pressure is on the Commanders and Terry holds the cards.  He could play out this season and either play the franchise-tag dance that he saw Brandon Scherff and Kirk Cousins played so successfully, and/or look to hit FA just when the salary cap begins to balloon and money becomes flush around the league to sign an in-prime top-notch wide receiver.

There is little doubt that this issue will be the big lingering one hanging over the team throughout the offseason, and possibly into the season if a deal doesn’t get done this summer.  The more time goes by, the more rumors and rumblings will emerge.  Will there be a holdout?  Franchise tags?  Sides trading subtle barbs in the media?  I hope not.  I really hope that the Commanders can get a deal done, like they did with Jonathan Allen, and put this one to bed.  Then I can finally go out and get that McLaurin jersey I’ve wanted to buy.