Washington’s Skill Positions Compared to Wentz’s Past Teams

May 19, 2022

by David Earl

The Ebb and Flow of Carson Wentz‘s Career

Living in Philadelphia, I can confirm the early pedestal the Eagles fan base and the local media like Anthony Gargano placed Carson Wentz when drafted was probably absurd but his talent was also undeniable. He was a quiet kid out of North Dakota State with the size and elite arm strength but had his flaws in his mechanics, but was being thrust not only into a volatile market but now with lofty expectations. So mid-season of year two, when he was a clear front-runner for league MVP, Philadelphia truly felt validation in their beliefs and saw the next great young quarterback in the NFL. Then, after his quick rise, the injury and the improbable Foles Super Bowl run set a course many did not see happening. His 2018 season, which certainly saw a decline in performance, was marred with injury; further, many were concerned that Wentz came back too soon off his 2017 ACL injury (something we fans know too well). As the 2018 offseason began, the fans began to hold divided opinions about what Wentz could truly be as a franchise quarterback. His underrated 2019 season saw what appeared a revitalized career hit a wall after the Jadeveon Clowney cheap shot in the playoffs. Then, concerns raised in 2020 regarding Wentz’s mental make-up and his locker room leadership were compounded by the 2nd round selection of Jalen Hurts. His final season for the Eagles saw a career-low in completion percentage at 57.4%, along with 15 interceptions and a career-worst interception percentage at 3.7%. Needless to say, the city and team couldn’t move on fast enough even after he signed a long-term extension that 2020 off-season.

Colts and Wentz Doomed From the Start?

The worst kept secret of the 2021 NFL offseason was where Carson Wentz would end up, so the Eagles and Colts made a deal that seemed sour from the start. For as much as Ron Rivera is criticized for what appeared bidding against himself in the Wentz trade, some may say the Colts did just the same. They not only gave up a conditional 2nd-round pick, which ended up becoming their 1st, but they also took on the entirety of Wentz’s contract which was just crazy at the time. Wentz’s final 2 games were just brutal, with total QBR of 4.3 against Jacksonville, but he and owner Jim Irsay didn’t start the 2021 season off on a good note. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, which was concerning when looking at his past injury history; then his decision not to get vaccinated certainly didn’t give Irsay the confidence that the Colts made the right commitment. So sure the final 2 weeks of the season many say was the final nail in his Colts career, it’s fair to say maybe that door was already closed by the owner and the final 2 weeks gave him justification. Regardless of what truly caused Wentz’s ultimate dismissal from the Colts, it is well known that Irsay is a man of conviction (right or wrong) and once he’s made up his mind nothing short of a playoff win would have saved Wentz’s career as a Colt. So, yes, in my opinion, the events leading into the 2021 season already doomed this marriage. With that said on to the breakdown of these team’s skill-position talent alongside Wentz.

Skill Position: Is Washington Potentially Tops

Even your elite-level quarterbacks need talent around them to succeed with Wentz being no exception, particularly since he isn’t proven to be a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers who lift the performance of the players around them. In 2019, Wentz somewhat did actually but that will be discussed later. For this section, the best direction here is pulling from the 2017 and 2019 seasons with Philadelphia alongside last season to compare with Washington’s 2022 potential skill position players. Without any further delay, let’s dive right in:

Philadelphia Eagles 2017: We all know that year Wentz was not only a front runner for league MVP but was the root of all Washington Redskins fans nightmares. From his elusive play to his clutch gene week in and week out, we all thought the same thing about what we were about to face for the next 10+ years. While that obviously didn’t come to fruition, that team’s skill position players were certainly good but not great. What he did have was a good and balanced run attack averaging 4.5ypc ranking 3rd in the NFL in total yards (2115) rushing. As far receiving the players with significant targets (70 or more) were as followed:

1. Zach Ertz (TE): 74 receptions, 824 yards, 8 TDs
2. Alshon Jeffery (WR): 57 receptions, 789 yards, 9 TDs
3. Nelson Agholor (WR): 62 receptions, 768 yards, 8 TDs
4. Torrey Smith (WR): 36 receptions, 430 yards, 2 TDs
5. Running Back Group: 53 receptions, 476 yards, 4TDs

Philadelphia Eagles 2019: This might be Wentz’s most impressive season to date and shows what he is capable of doing when backed against the wall. After losing his primary wide receivers, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor to Lisfranc and knee injury, respectively, for the final quarter of the season, he rose to the challenge. He still had one of the league’s top tight ends in Ertz and finished the season 4-0 past against divisional rivals with a no-name wide receiver in Greg Ward as his top outside target. I may be overstating this, especially with the performance of rookie sensation Miles Sanders, but I’ve watched the NFL enough that if no true outside threat exists the run game and tight end play are easier to contain. Having to win every game for their playoff lives against divisional rivals in which literally every game tends to be a toss-up, Wentz’s performance was absolutely clutch when they needed it most. In no reality can anyone convince me that after a nearly 40 year old washed-up quarterback in Josh McCown almost beat Seattle that if Carson Wentz never got hurt the Eagles never lose the playoff game against the Seahawks.  If that had happened, his chapter in Philly would be much different.

1. Zach Ertz (TE): 88 receptions, 916 yards, and 6 TDs
2. Dallas Goedert (TE): 58 receptions, 607 yards, and 5 TDs
3. Miles Sanders (RB): 50 receptions, 509 yards, and 3 TDs
4. Alshon Jeffery (WR): 43 receptions, 490 yards, and 4 TDs
5. Nelson Agholor (WR): 39 receptions, 363 yards, and 3 TDs

Indianapolis Colts 2021: I touched on his time with the Colts and how I felt he was doomed before the final 2 games of the season even came to fruition. As far as the Colts’ talent at the skill positions, Wentz had the best running back in the game (second if Henry stayed healthy) in Jonathan Taylor, who averaged 5.5ypc and eclipsed 1,800 yards. Everything was available in the passing game off the run from play action to the run-pass option and he posted respectable numbers. Wentz did this with a not yet established second-year standout wide receiver in Michael Pittman Jr and that’s it as receivers. T.Y. Hilton was past his prime and only available in 10 games. Zach Pascal is a decent enough receiver with solid hands, and the Colts’ best tight end last year, Mo Alie-Cox, had 24 receptions off of 45 targets. Taylor hauled in 40 receptions he is not what you call a great pass-catching running back, having a paltry 78% catch percentage. For as great as a running back Taylor is, J.D. McKissic is light years better in that department.

1. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR): 88 receptions, 1,082 yards, and 6 TDs
2. Zach Pascal (WR): 38 receptions, 384 yards, and 3 TDs
3. Jonathan Taylor (RB): 40 receptions, 360 yards, and 2 TDs
4. T.Y. Hilton (WR): 23 receptions, 331 yards, and 3 TDs

Washington Commanders 2022: The projected starting roster (if healthy) has plenty of skill position talent, especially on the edges. The only real concern is whether Logan Thomas, who tore his ACL in week 13 last year, will even be healthy come Week 1. While his recovery is reportedly going well and he’s aiming for a Week 1 return, ACL injuries take roughly at least 10 months to be fully ready, which puts him at around a week 4 return. Thomas is the only player I will leave as a question mark for at least the first quarter of the season. While the running game was decent last year, it has potential to improve with Antonio Gibson now possibly being challenged for touches by rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr. If the history of competition taught us anything, its that the best wake-up call in a player is the idea of insecurity. So what are the projected top weapons for Wentz as we enter the 2022 season?

1. Terry McLaurin (WR): 77 receptions, 1,053 yards, and 5 TDs (2021 totals)
2. Curtis Samuels (WR): 77 receptions, 851 yards, and 3 TDs (2020 totals)
3. Logan Thomas (TE): 72 receptions, 670 yards, and 6 TDs (2020 totals)
4. J.D. McKissic (RB): 80 receptions, 589 yards, and 2 TDs (2020 totals)
5. Antonio Gibson (RB): 42 receptions, 294 yards, and 3 TDs (2021 Totals)

As I anticipate that with Logan Thomas possibly missing at least the first 3 weeks of the season, the pass-catching tight end role could very well hinge on 5th round rookie tight end Cole Turner. John Bates showed some signs of having solid hands in the passing game but his best ability right now is his blocking, whereas Sammis Reyes is just not ready. Turner might very well need to grow quickly this offseason. He has the pedigree to be exactly what Washington needs. An imposing 6’5″ target, Turner was near unstoppable in Nevada’s passing attack. Now, insert 1st round pick Jahan Dotson, who scored one of the best catch percentages in college football, and you potentially a trio of talented wide receivers that Wentz has never had in his career. Finally, add the enigma in Dyami Brown, the second-year wide receiver, and if he takes that next step finding similar success he had at North Carolina (20 yards per catch average) then it’s safe to say Wentz will have no excuse but to succeed.

Final Thoughts

Carson Wentz won’t have the run game like last season in Jonathan Taylor nor a game-changing tight end in Zack Ertz but the wide receiving talent depth here in Washington is no doubt the best group of his career. Their downfield speed matches perfectly with his greatest asset, which is his arm strength and 20+ air-yard accuracy. While he will make some poor decisions forcing some throws, he will certainly have the opportunity for many big plays all year thanks to Terry McLaurin‘s ability to separate. Also, the ground game should at least be respectable, but J.D. McKissic will provide Wentz a dynamic target when the downfield and intermediate routes are not available. The question though, is whether he will utilize McKissic. In his career ,only in 2019 did he lean on the running backs in the passing attack.  Was that due to the Eagles losing their top wide receiver targets or because Miles Sanders and Boston Scott presented him the most confidence? To be successful in 2022, Wentz must distribute his targets wisely to his running backs – mainly McKissic – to open this offense’s fullest potential. If he is smart and careful this season and includes every weapon at his disposal, it is realistically possible to see a quarterback somewhere in between his 2017 and 2019 versions. Honestly, Wentz has no excuses and, as long as the off-field ownership issues don’t plague the locker room throughout the 2022 season, should make a strong case for being the future of this franchise. Essentially, Wentz has everything in place and if he’s anything less than his 2019 version that should be considered a disappointment.