by Steve Thomas

Here we are, near the start of July, as close as the NFL comes to a dead zone – this is the only time of the year that the coaches take time off and the facilities are quiet. If you walk into any NFL team’s offices, much of the coaching and scouting offices are empty – many of these men taking advantage of the one true down time provided to them by a career choice that takes them from friends and families for practically every other moment in return for the promise of being a part of the country’s favorite sport at the highest level. The business offices of each team, of course, are still humming as the staffs continue to prepare for the upcoming season. No rest for the weary in that department.

What, exactly, are we fans supposed to be doing during this time of the year? I mean, besides productive things like spending time with families, pursuing hobbies, enjoying the summer sun, and watching and playing other sports besides NFL football (perish the thought). The answer is obvious, of course – now is the time where we can begin to form our real initial opinions about the team for the upcoming season. We’ve made it through free agency, the draft, OTAs, and minicamp – the only thing left is the start of the real thing in late July. Certainly, position battles are left to be fought, schemes will be perfected, players will get injured, players will not perform as expected, and other players will come seemingly out of nowhere to become regular starters or even stars. But basically, we have finally had our initial glimpse of the real 2015 Washington Redskins.

We already did a preliminary look at the schedule and gave our off-the-cuff game by game predictions on the podcast a couple of weeks ago. But what can we really expect to see on the field? Obviously, the final record is certainly most important here, but given the history of this team over the last 20 or so years, asking ourselves precisely what we are going to see next season is more than fair. I predicted 5 – 11 on the podcast, and I will stick with that (for now), but the question is deeper than just the win – loss record. After all, a team can be 5 – 11 and sinking (this ought to sound familiar to all Redskins fans), 5 – 11 and just treading water (this one rings a bell as well), or 5 – 11 but rising (someone jog my memory, please). These are my views on how to measure progress other than via the win – loss record:

Offense

Three areas appear to be most important in observing a quantifiable improvement on the offensive side of the ball: (1) improved play from Robert Griffin III; (2) better red zone touchdown efficiency, and (3) commitment to the run game.

Robert Griffin III

First and foremost, I expect to see a Robert Griffin who has a quicker release from the pocket and is generally more comfortable in a pro-style offense, even if he does not look like a seasoned veteran of Jay Gruden’s offense just yet. Here are Griffin’s most important stats from his 9 games last year:

Passer Rating	86.9
Completion %	68.9%
Total Passing Yards	1694
Yards Per Game	188.2
Touchdowns	4
Interceptions	6
Sacks	33
Sack Rate	13.4%

Griffin’s passer rating and completion percentage have always been good throughout his career – he has a 90.6 rating and 63.9 completion percentage over his three seasons. Where Griffin needs to improve most is his yards per game and sack rate. As a benchmark, Griffin passed for 218 yards per game and had a 7.1% sack rate in his historic 2012 rookie season. If those two numbers improve, it will be a pretty good sign that Griffin is “getting it” and getting more comfortable with the offense, because it will show that he is see the field better and releasing the ball quicker, which are two of his biggest problem areas. For the sake of comparison, this is the career stat line for Giants quarterback Eli Manning:

Passer Rating	82.4
Completion %	59%
Yards Per Game	235
Sack Rate	4.8%

So, what should the fans consider “good” improvement for Robert Griffin in 2015? A QB rating of over 80 is considered to be a decent number; 100 and over is an outstanding rating in the realm of Brady, Manning, and 2012 Griffin. If Griffin can maintain a QB rating of approximately 90, his career average completion percentage in the low 60% range, while passing for approximately 230 yards per game for 3600 – 3700 yards over 16 games, and simultaneously reducing his sack rate back to approximately 7%, he will have made major, major progress in 2015. If that happens, Redskins fans should justifiably be singing his praises.

Red Zone

What about red zone touchdown efficiency? This statistic measures how effective a team is at scoring touchdowns once the team reaches the opponent’s 20 yard line. Put simply, the Redskins need more touchdowns. Remember how many times we watched the Redskins drive down the field last season, only to come up empty? That needs to change. In 2014, the Redskins were ranked 27th in the NFL, scoring touchdowns on 47.92% of red zone visits. In contrast, the Super Bowl champion Patriots ranked 5th in NFL at 62.34%, and division rival and reigning NFC East champ Dallas was 2nd at 64.91%. An improvement in Robert Griffin’s performance should result in an improvement in this statistic, so if the Redskins take a significant jump in red zone touchdown efficiency up from 27, it will be another sign that things are progressing nicely.

Run Game

Finally: commitment to the run game. Take a look at Alfred Morris’ average yards per season, yards per carry, and number of carries for each of his three seasons:

	Total	Avg	Attempts
2012	1613	4.8	335
2013	1275	4.6	276
2014	1074	4.1	265

Morris’ effectiveness, while still good, has steadily fallen. A rise in Morris’ yards per carry, coupled with a statistically significant contribution from some combination of Matt Jones, Silas Redd, and / or Chris Thompson, should go a long way towards making the offense more effective. In an ideal world, it will not be necessary to increase Morris’ number of carries back over 300 per year, which is a number that historically becomes dangerous ground for a running back if that workload is sustained several years in a row.

Defense

There is no other way to say this: defensively, the 2014 Redskins were bad almost across the board. However, with the new incoming players and switch to a one-gap 3-4 system coming in 2015, there may be hope for improvement. Fans should look for 3 key statistical improvements as signs of progress: (1) points per game, (2) opponent’s passer rating, and (3) interceptions.

Points per Game

The points per game statistic may seem obvious, but the Redskins were tied for 3rd worst in the league in 2014, surrendering 27.4 points per game, tied with the Titans and better than only the Bears and the Raiders. Therefore, a strong jump in this most basic and most important statistic will be a critical sign that the defense has improved.

Opponent’s Passer Rating

The Redskins were the worst team in the NFL in opponent’s passer rating, generously providing opposing quarterbacks an average rating of 108.3. Chicago was second, surrendering an average rating of 101.7. For the sake of comparison, Peyton Manning’s passer rating last season was 101.5 – meaning, the Redskins pass defense made every quarterback they faced look better than Peyton. Bad, right? Any improvement in this area from atrocious to approaching league average would be a clear signal that the pass defense has made significant strides both in the secondary and in the pass rush.

Interceptions

Finally, the Redskins had only 7 interceptions in 2014, good for a tie for 28th place, with only Jacksonville, Kansas City, and the Jets being worse. Improvements in the pass rusher coupled with a greater level of competence in the defensive backfield will result in more interceptions, which will lead to across the board improvements on both offense and defense.

So, Redskins fans, even if our favorite team does not make great strides in its win – loss record in 2015, keep an eye out on the “numbers behind the numbers” that I have touched on here. Even if the wins come slowly, if the team starts to turn around its key offensive and defensive metrics, it will be a sign that long-term improvements may be coming.

What do you think? Feel free to hit me up with any comments either in the comment section below, via email, or on Twitter @thehogsty.

All statistics courtesy of www.nfl.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.espn.com, and www.teamrankings.com.