How Does Jay Gruden Compare, Really?
by Steve Thomas
Jay Gruden, the Redskins’ 2014 rookie head coach, was the source of quite a bit of controversy in his first year, wasn’t he? It started from the very beginning – allegations of nepotism, with some fans harboring the belief that Jay was given his job not through his own merits, but on the basis of association with his famous, Super Bowl-winning brother, Jon Gruden, who coached the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the 2003 Super Bowl championship. It continued throughout the season as fans questioned his play-calling, his handling of the quarterbacks, his entire defense, his half-time adjustments, his interactions with the media, and his results in the win column. Regardless of how one feels about Jay’s performance to date, it was beyond question that 2014 was a rocky season in which the team did not perform up to even the most meager of expectations. Certainly, listeners of The Hog Sty Podcast know that I have been extremely critical of his work here in Washington.
So, after looking back on last season, the question that continues to linger with this author is how Jay compares to his fellow NFL head coaches in terms of college and NFL coaching experience and first-year results. Is it possible to spot an area or areas for which Jay is dramatically different than his fellow coaches, and if so, could that relate to his coaching performance? Now, I am the first to admit that the data you are about to read is not a scientific study and is subject to a host of outside factors, not the least of which would be the talent of the players on the team with regard to the team’s win-loss record. Nonetheless, a look at the standard profile of the average head coach may be useful information – it may be that Jay fits the profile to a tee, or it may be that Jay is an outlier of sorts in one area or another, which in turn may be at least some explanation of the results we all saw last season. For part 1 of this 2 part article, let’s take a look and find out – get your underwater breathing gear on, folks, because we are about to drown in numbers.
For this project, I analyzed the backgrounds of all 32 NFL head coaches for the 2015 season, including their playing careers, their coaching experience, their ages, and their results as a first year head coach. In order to limit the scope and keep this article to a reasonable length, I did not venture into former NFL head coaches, including former Redskins head coaches – this data shows just how Jay stacks up to his 2015 peers.
Here’s a profile of Jay Gruden prior to being named as the Redskins head coach:
● Division 1 collegiate QB at the University of Louisville
● Played 12 years in the World League and the Arena League
● Coached for 10 years in the Arena League, including head coaching experience
● Assistant in the NFL for the Buccaneers and the Bengals for 8 years
● 47 years old during his first season with the Redskins
● First year win-loss record: 4 – 12
Coaches’ Playing Experience
Of the 32 current NFL coaches (including Gruden), this is the breakout of their experience as a football player:
| Collegiate Division I-A: | 20 coaches |
| Collegiate Division I-AA and below: | 13 coaches |
| Professional other than NFL: | 3 coaches |
| NFL experience: | 7 coaches |
Jay is one of only three active coaches who played in a professional league other than the NFL, so he is an outlier in this regard. Furthermore, of the 3 coaches who played professionally in another league other than the NFL (Gruden, Sean Payton (Saints), and Mike McCoy (Chargers)), he is the only coach who played more the 2 years in such other league; in addition, only Payton spent any time at all in the Arena League. McCoy played 2 years in the CFL and NFL Europe. Please note that one coach played in both Division I-A and a lower collegiate division; hence, the collegiate numbers do equal 32.
Prior Coaching Experience
This is the breakout of coaching experience for the 32 current NFL coaches prior to being hired for their first NFL head coaching position (as distinguished from their current position, which in most cases is not a first head coaching experience):
| High school coach: | 4 |
| No collegiate coaching experience: | 7 |
| Collegiate assistant 5 years or less: | 4 |
| Collegiate assistant more than 5 and less than 10 years: | 4 |
| Collegiate assistant 10 or more years: | 17 |
| Collegiate head coach: | 5 |
| Pro coach other than NFL: | 3 |
| No NFL assistant experience: | 1 |
| NFL assistant 5 years or less: | 1 |
| NFL assistant more than 5 and less than 10 years: | 16 |
| NFL assistant greater than 10 years: | 15 |
Most coaches fit into multiple categories on this chart; therefore, the numbers do not equal 32. Jay is once again an outlier with his experience coaching in the Arena League. Only 2 other current coaches coached in another pro league, and of those two other coaches, Jay spent the most number of years outside the NFL structure, by far. Jim Tomsula, the head coach of the 49ers, spent 9 years as a coach in NFL Europe. John Fox, the head coach of the Bears, spent one year coaching in the USFL.
Jay is also one of only 7 coaches who did not spend any time in the collegiate ranks. Of those 5 other coaches who did not spend time as college coaches, 4 of 7 (Jason Garrett (Dallas), Ron Rivera (Panthers), Jeff Fisher (Rams), Jack Del Rio (Raiders)) had significant NFL playing experience, all of them having spent 4 or more seasons as NFL players. Of the remaining two, Mike McCoy from the Chargers, played in the CFL and NFL Europe. Only the Patriots’ head coach, Bill Belichick, was hired directly into the NFL without either collegiate coaching experience or NFL playing experience. Certainly, given Belichick’s future Hall of Fame status, he is a special case.
Overall coaching experience is fairly consistent: 29 of 32 current NFL head coaches spent at least 10 years as an assistant coach somewhere or a head coach at another level prior to being hired as an NFL head coach for the first time. Of those 29, 10 had more than 10 and less than 20 years experience, and 19 had 20 or more years of coaching experience prior to being hired as an NFL head coach for the first time. Only 3 head coaches (Garrett, Andy Reid (Chiefs), Fisher)) had 10 or fewer years of experience as a coach prior to being hired as an NFL head coach for the first time, and all three of those men had significant NFL playing careers.
Age at Time of First Hire
The median age for the 32 current head coaches when they were awarded their first NFL head coaching position was 46, and 22 of 32 head coaches were somewhere in their 40. The range of ages was from 35 to 59 years old. Jay was 47 during his first year with the Redskins, so he is right in the “sweet spot” of the age range data.
First Year Win – Loss Records
The following chart shows the win – loss records of each of the 32 current NFL head coaches in their first year as head coach (three coaches are entering their first year as an NFL head coach):
|
0-16:
|
0 |
9-7:
|
3 |
|
1-15:
|
0 |
10-6:
|
4 |
|
2-14:
|
0 |
11-5:
|
2 |
|
3-13:
|
0 |
12-4:
|
0 |
|
4-12:
|
3 |
13-3:
|
0 |
|
5-11:
|
4 |
14-2:
|
1 (Jim Caldwell, Colts) |
|
6-10:
|
4 |
15-1:
|
0 |
|
7-9:
|
5 |
16-0:
|
0 |
|
8-8:
|
4 |
In summary, only 7 of the 32 current head coaches earned winning records in their first year as a head coach; however, all but 3 earned records better than the 4 – 12 posted by Jay Gruden’s Redskins in 2014. As stated above, win – loss records are most certainly the result of a wide variety of factors in addition to the ability of the head coach, including player talent level, injury, strength of schedule, and a host of other factors, so it is most certainly neither fair nor scientifically valid to assign all of either blame or praise on the head coach for his team’s record. Nonetheless, it is relevant, at some level, at least, that Jay is once again an outlier, this time in results achieved.
Conclusion
This data shows that Jay Gruden’s age, experience as an NFL assistant, and overall coaching experience prior to being hired as the head coach of the Redskins is unremarkable and right in line with the bulk of his coaching peers. However, Jay was an outlier in two respects with regard to his background: playing time as a pro outside the NFL and collegiate coaching experience. The data as a whole shows that there may be two “standard” or “average” paths to becoming an NFL head coach: (1) many years as a collegiate assistant, followed by several years as an NFL assistant, or (2) a career as an NFL player, followed by a few years as an NFL assistant (or sometimes as a collegiate assistant as well), both paths concluding most often in the coach’s mid-40s to late 40s.
Jay Gruden most certainly took an alternative path to his job, in that (1) he is the only head coach in the NFL that spent any significant time in the Arena League, let alone 22 years (12 years as a player and 10 years as a coach), and (2) he is not an NFL player but did not coach in college. This information alone does not prove or establish anything – he may or may become a successful head coach in time, either with the Redskins or another team, regardless of his background. Nonetheless, when one acknowledges that Jay stands alone with his Arena League experience, it should at a minimum raise legitimate questions.
As most readers know, one of the biggest criticisms of Jay by fans and media alike last season was that he abandoned the run game far too often. Given the Arena League’s tendencies toward the quick-strike passing game – in contrast to the NFL – it certainly begs the question whether Jay’s AFL experience is a good fit in the NFL. Jay’s Win – Loss record from 2014 is another outlier data point – could his lack of “traditional” experience for a head coach have contributed to this poor result, or was it more a symptom of the undeniably low talent level on the 2014 roster? At this point, we do not have any conclusions, mind you, just the open question.
Readers who have made it to the end of this article awake, with eyes open, can see the fairly clear trends in the backgrounds of NFL head coaches. This article most certainly is not an academic study: it ignores the scores of head coaches who came before this current crop of 32, and does not account for player talent and many other factors in analysis of the win – loss records. I, for one, do not deem to pretend that it is conclusive in any regard; that having been said, enough of a trend in the backgrounds of head coaches is present to raise an issue about whether Jay Gruden’s background is suitable for an NFL head coaching position. I am, of course, rooting for him to succeed, as are all real Redskins fans.
In part 2 of this article, we will examine the history of Jay’s offenses in the Arena League as both a player and coach in order to attempt to discover whether that experience holds any similarities to the way Jay is running the Redskins today, and whether the Redskins’ offense is noticeably different than other NFL offenses.
Do you have any thoughts? Email us or provide your comments below.