Do The Redskins Really Need to Run More?

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by Steve Thomas

One of the major themes coming out of the 2016 Redskins season was that Jay Gruden should have called more running plays. The average fan, the beat writers, football experts, and elite-level podcasters and bloggers (…ahem…) alike all made this a consistent point throughout the majority of the season. I felt like I said it on just about every episode of The Hog Sty this season. It’s fine to have that thought, and, just watching the games this year, it sure seemed to be true. As a result, the question that’s been rolling around in my head is whether this is the objective truth in comparison to other NFL teams. Therefore, in this piece, we’ll take a look at the Redskins’ run/pass balance in the context of the entire NFL.

First, a bit of background – as you all know, Gruden has an Arena League background. I wrote a column in the 2015 offseason describing his unusual path to becoming an NFL head coach (click here to read: http://thehogsty.com/blog/HowDoesJayGrudenCompareReally.html). If you are an Arena League fan (looking at you, Alex Zeese), you know that it is primarily a passing league. As an example, here are the run/pass stats for Gruden’s 1998-2001 Orlando Predators team, for which he was the head coach:

  • 1998 Orlando Predators:
  • passing: 240 comp / 427 att / 3369 yards / 67 TDs
  • rushing: 130 att / 433 yards / 18 TDs
  • pass to run ratio: 77% pass / 23% run
  • 1999 Orlando Predators:
  • passing: 220 comp / 420 att / 3068 yards / 64 TDs
  • rushing: 133 att / 432 yards / 12 TDs
  • pass to run ratio: 76% pass / 24% run
  • 2000 Orlando Predators:
  • passing: 235 comp / 405 att / 3163 yards / 54 TDs
  • rushing: 176 att / 513 yards / 24 TDs
  • pass to run ratio: 70% pass / 30% run
  • 2001 Orlando Predators:
  • passing: 256 comp / 450 att / 3457 yards / 65 TDs
  • rushing: 113 att / 194 yards / 24 TDs
  • pass to run ratio: 80% pass / 20% run

I could go into a more detail here – Gruden was the head coach of that same Predators team during a second stint from 2004-08 – but it is unnecessary, because the point is obvious: Gruden’s Arena League teams passed a whole lot, and did not run very much at all. Start of a trend? I don’t think so – ever watched an Arena League game? It is a passing game on a field that is half as big as an NFL field. I’m not going to bore you, dear readers, with average Arena league team numbers here, even though I could. Just take my word for it: Gruden’s teams’ offensive numbers are in line with standard Arena league offensive results. In other words, while he was an Arena League coach, his teams played like Arena League teams. Hardly surprising or wrong.

Following his Arena League stint, Jay was the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals under head coach Marvin Lewis from 2011-13. Understanding that the team, including the offense, ultimately belonged to Lewis, not Gruden, nonetheless, how did the offense operate under Gruden’s leadership? Below are the percentage of rushing plays, and the rankings of each in the NFL (higher rankings=higher rushing percentage) for those 3 Bengals teams:

  • 2011 Bengals:
  • rushing percentage: 45.96% / ranked 12th
  • passing: 308 comp / 535 att / 3340 yards / 21 TDs
  • rushing: 455 att / 1778 yards / 3.9 yards per carry / 10 TDs
  • 2012 Bengals:
  • rushing percentage: 44.33% / ranked 14th
  • passing: 335 comp / 540 att / 3578 yards / 28 TDs
  • rushing: 430 att / 1745 yards / 4.1 yards per carry / 11 TDs
  • 2013 Bengals:
  • rushing percentage: 45.04% / ranked 11th
  • passing: 364 comp / 587 att / 4136 yards / 33 TDs
  • rushing: 481 att / 1755 yards / 3.6 yards per carry / 14 TDs

It is not possible to determine how much of the play selection and offensive style should be attributed to Gruden and how much should be attributed to Lewis. Regardless, as you can see, the Bengals certainly “leaned” towards the passing game in each of these three years; however, these offenses were not dramatically slanted towards the essentially pure passing game of Gruden’s Arena League teams. In fact, these Bengals teams actually each ranked in the top half of the league by rushing percentage; plus, if you recall the personnel the Bengals had (and still have), there was a talented quarterback – receiver combination in Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, and a decided lack of top-end running back talent.

Now, let’s take a peek at the basic numbers for the Redskins during Gruden’s tenure:

  • 2014 Redskins
  • rushing percentage: 42.30% / ranked 16th
  • passing: 364 comp / 547 att / 4047 gross yards / 18 TDs
  • rushing: 401 att / 1691 yards / 4.2 yards per carry / 15 TDs
  • 2015 Redskins
  • rushing percentage: 43.60% / ranked 11th
  • passing: 386 comp / 555 att / 4095 gross yards / 30 TDs
  • rushing: 429 att / 1566 yards / 3.7 yards per carry / 9 TDs
  • 2016 Redskins
  • rushing percentage: 38.44% / ranked 26th
  • passing: 407 comp / 607 att / 4758 gross yards / 25 TDs
  • rushing: 379 att / 1696 yards / 4.2 yards per carry / 17 TDs

Of all 6 of these teams, only the 2016 Redskins featured a rushing attack dramatically out of balance with the passing attack. The criticism therefore appears warranted for 2016, but Gruden’s history suggests that this might be more aberration than pattern. The Redskins’ lack of ability to score in the red zone this season was possibly caused by the Redskins’ failure to properly use the run game. Teams recognized that the Redskins were not going to run much near the goal line and sold-out to protect against the pass in those situations.

One could speculate endlessly on this subject, but the bottom line is that it does not appear that, with the exception of the 2016 season, Gruden is an outlier in comparison to other NFL coaches with regard to his calling of passing and rushing plays. He was not “pass happy” in the Arena League to a greater extent than any other Arena League coach, as offensive coordinator of the Bengals, or as head coach of the 2014 or 2015 Redskins. Certainly, his NFL coaching style is most likely influenced by his Arena League days, and one could justifiably criticize Gruden’s play selection in 2016, but this data does not establish quantitatively that Gruden has been running some sort of pass-centric Arena League offense in the NFL. Based on Gruden’s historical precedent, it appears more likely than not that the 2017 season will see an uptick in the number of run plays called.

Bottom line: objectively, Gruden has not been significantly more of a passing coach than other NFL coaches, although 2016 was, as expected, somewhat out of balance. I suspect 2017 will be different. We’ll find out in about eight months.

Do you have any thoughts? Let us know.