Let’s Talk Redskins Draft Tendencies

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By Steve Thomas

This piece started as my attempt to prove that the Redskins don’t draft enough starting quality defensive lineman (newsflash) after seeing a chart to that effect put out by Steve Czaban from ESPN 980, and in typical fashion, it somehow morphed into a project larger in scope.  With the draft coming up, instead I decided to tackle an issue that I’ve always wanted to delve into: the Redskins’ historical draft tendencies. As everyone is well aware, the Redskins have been one of the least successful teams in terms of win-loss record since the 1992 Super Bowl, and have simultaneously been one of the league leaders in drama.  The most basic reason why the Redskins have been so bad is that they usually do not have nearly enough quality players.  Clearly, these problems have only gotten worse since Dan Snyder bought the team in 1999.  As a result, I decided to do a breakdown of the Redskins’ draft picks by position group since both the 1992 draft and Dan Snyder’s first draft, which was in 2000[1].

There are a couple of big, obvious caveats to this data.  First and foremost, a host of different people have been in charge of the Redskins draft process since 1992, and as a result, attempting to read too much into this might not be overly valuable.  Second, the time period that I’ve labeled as the ‘Dan Snyder era” is also somewhat arbitrary for the same reasons – Mr. Snyder has employed five different people who ostensibly had final authority over the draft, Vinny Cerrato (twice!), Marty Schottenheimer, Mike Shanahan, Bruce Allen (twice!), and Scot McCloughan. We do not have any solid evidence as to the extent of Snyder’s influence on the draft, although it seems clear and obvious that Snyder has consistently wielded influence to one degree or the other over the years on both on the draft and on roster decisions in general.  Therefore, take this for what it is: interesting draft trends, but not necessarily gospel when it comes to predicting the future.

A couple of notes: I decided to include players in the position group that they played for the Redskins in their first year with the Redskins, and not the position group in which they were included coming out of college.  This means that I counted Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan, Trent Murphy, and Su’a Cravens as linebackers, not defensive linemen, or in the case of Cravens, as a safety, and Niles Paul as a wide receiver and not a tight end.  Second, I combined corners and safeties into one group for a similar reason; it became too hard to categorize certain players given that the Redskins used a couple of these players as both corners and safeties even early in their careers.  Suffice to say that the only true safeties the Redskins have drafted at the very top of the draft in the last 25 years are the late Sean Taylor and Mr. Muscles, Leron Landry.

All picks since 1992

The following is the combined positional breakdown of players selected in all rounds of the draft between 1992 and 2016:

  • QB: 13                                ● DL: 17
  • RB: 16                                ● LB: 31
  • OT: 14                                ● CB/S: 34
  • G/C: 19                              ● P: 2
  • Total OL: 33                        ● K: 2
  • TE: 13                                ● LS: 1
  • WR: 24

What sticks out in this data?  For one thing, the number of defensive linemen drafted (17) compared to the number offensive linemen drafted (33).  Even taking into account that the offensive line group is bigger than the defensive line group, i.e., five starters versus a max of 4 starters, this is a gross imbalance.  Similarly, the Redskins have drafted far more linebackers (31) and defensive backs (34) than defensive linemen.  The fact that the team switched to a 3-4 system under Mike Shanahan does not account for the abnormally high number of linebackers drafted.  The number of drafted defensive backs (a position group with 4 starters) is disproportionately high compared to the other position groups.  The Redskins love their defensive backs.

All picks in the Dan Snyder era

The following is the combined positional breakdown of players selected in all rounds of the draft in the Dan Snyder era, between 2000 and 2016:

  • QB: 10                               ● DL: 11
  • RB: 12                               ● LB: 19
  • OT: 9                                 ● CB/S: 24
  • G/C: 11                             ● P: 1
  • Total OL: 20                       ● K: 1
  • TE: 8                                 ● LS: 1
  • WR: 16

The Redskins have drafted an insanely high number of defensive backs during the Dan Snyder era as well, and a relatively small number of defensive linemen.  Also, drafting 16 wide receivers seems like a stretch compared to the other position groups considering that only two can start.  As an aside, sadly, only 1 of the 10 quarterbacks drafted has proven to have long-term starter potential, and of course, the Redskins seem to be intent on letting this quarterback leave the team.

Top 3 rounds since 1992

The following is the combined positional breakdown of players selected in the first three rounds of each draft between the draft after the last Super Bowl, 1992, and 2016:

  • QB: 4                                  ● DL: 4
  • RB: 4                                  ● LB: 10
  • OT: 6                                  ● CB/S: 12
  • G/C: 8                                ● P: 1
  • Total OL: 14                        ● K: 0
  • TE: 4                                  ● LS: 0
  • WR: 10

The top three rounds are where teams expect to find their starters.  With that in mind, what immediately jumps out of this list is the fact that the Redskins have only drafted four defensive linemen.  Not only that, but those four were Shane Collins (1992), Kenard Lang (1997), Jeremy Jarmon (2009), and Jarvis Jenkins (2011).  Of those four, only Kenard Lang played more than 4 years for the Redskins and was a solid starter, although he left the Redskins after his 5th season.  Jarvis Jenkins played 4 years in Washington, but was suspended for substance abuse in 2013, never lived up to his potential, and moved on to Chicago after his rookie contact expired.  The Redskins have drafted as many quarterbacks who they viewed as potential starters (Shuler, Ramsey, Campbell, Griffin) as they have defensive linemen.  And, of course, none of those combined 8 players (QBs + DL) ended up as long-term starters – of that entire group, Jason Campbell might have had the best Redskins career.  Let that sink in for a moment.

It is also noteworthy that the Redskins drafted 10 wide receivers in the top 3 rounds, six more than for the entire defensive line, for a position group with only 2 starters.  Not only that, but not a single one of those wide receivers panned out to become a long-term starter for the Redskins.  Only Josh Doctson has a chance to fill his draft potential.  This is outright draft abuse by the Redskins.  Go ahead and wonder why the Redskins have had so many years of poor performance.

Top 3 rounds in the Dan Snyder era

The following is the combined positional breakdown of players selected in the first three round of each draft of the Dan Snyder draft era, 2000 through 2016:

  • QB: 3                                  ● DL: 2
  • RB: 2                                  ● LB: 7
  • OT: 3                                  ● CB/S: 9
  • G/C: 5                                ● P: 0
  • Total OL: 8                          ● K: 0
  • TE: 3                                  ● LS: 0
  • WR: 7

In examining this data, the same trends are evident: very high number of defensive backs and wide receivers; very few defensive lineman.  The fact that so few offensive tackles might be distressing until one realizes that both Chris Samuels and Trent Williams are in this group, and between those two players, left tackle has been covered at a Pro Bowl/All-Pro level for 18 years; plus, Jon Jansen (selected in 1999, one year before Mr. Snyder bought the team) manned the right tackle position for 10 years in his own right.  Tackle might be the one draft area in which the Redskins have consistently succeeded.  Of course, the most telling stat of all: 3 quarterbacks (Ramsey, Campbell, Griffin), none of whom ended up being long-term starters, versus only 2 defensive linemen (Jarmon, Jenkins), neither of whom worked out either.

So what does this mean for this year?  Possibly nothing.  After all, each draft is a new effort.  However, if historical trends hold, you will most likely hear the names of a defensive back and a linebacker in the top few rounds; plus, expect at least one wide receiver.  Mostly, though, these numbers validate my initial thought, which was that the Redskins have for the most part ignored the defensive line in the draft for the past 25 years.  As it turns out, there’s a reason why the defensive line is in the poor shape that it’s in today.  It isn’t just a myth or hyperbole to suggest that the Redskins have relied heavily on free agency to fill this position group.  Don’t be overly surprised if the Redskins once again somehow avoid drafting defensive line in the top 3 rounds.

It’s time for things to change, Redskins.  Your move.

 

 

[1] All draft data in this column is the result of my tabulations taken from the Redskins’ draft history article at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Redskins_draft_history.