Game Preview, Week 10: Vikings at Redskins

Posted on November 10, 2017 by Steve Thomas

by Steve Thomas and Sean Conte

Now is as good a time as any for each and every one of of you to sing a rousing rendition of “Hail to the Redskins”. Go ahead. I’ll wait……Okay, done? Good. It was the perfect moment for that because the Redskins are coming off of one of their biggest wins of the past few years, a somewhat stunning victory over the Seahawks in Seattle. As we mentioned on the game recap show, though, the key is for Washington to maintain their momentum through the next game, which happens to be the Vikings this Sunday in Raljon. After all, how many times have we seen the Redskins play well in a game that they weren’t expected to do so, only to follow it up with a poor performance the very next week? I don’t know about you, but I’ve seen that movie too many times. Well, kids, unfortunately, there’s no time for slacking off, as the first place Vikings are sporting a 6 – 2 record and have one of the better defenses in the NFL. Injuries have taken a toll on Minnesota, for sure – they lost rookie running back sensation Dalvin Cook for the year, and Sam Bradford had his annual knee injury a few weeks ago, which is looking more and more like a potentially season-ending problem. Despite that, though, the Vikings offense has continued to play well with Case Keenum now at the helm, continuing to score points at a significant clip. Make no mistake: this will be one of the toughest games of the season, and also one of the most important non-division matchups of the second half of the season. The Redskins are fortunate that this is a home game. What do we think about it? Read on for our preview.

Game time & location: Sunday, November 12, 2017, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Raljon, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.

Television: Fox

Television announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis, Pam Oliver

DC-area radio: ESPN 980

Redskins radio network: http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/radio-network.html

Vikings radio network: http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/radio.html

Satellite radio: XM: 225 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 134 (Redskins broad.); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)

Redskins roster: http://www.redskins.com/team/roster.hml

Redskins depth chart: http://www.redskins.com/team/depth-chart.html

Vikings roster: http://www.vikings.com/team/roster.html

Vikings depth chart: http://www.vikings.com/team/depth-chart.html

All-time head-to-head record vs Vikings: 10 – 10 (last 10: 4 – 6)

Last meeting: W, November 13, 2016, 26 – 20

Early odds: Minnesota, -2

SEAN’S 5 KEYS TO THE GAME

Keep the Pressure Off

Everson Griffen is a beast, posting a sack in every game this season. Our O-line is decidedly un-beastly, especially in it’s current injury-ravaged state. Morgan Moses is just about the only healthy guy we have right now, which is the same story from last week. Kirk better put on his dancing shoes this weekend.

Watch Thielien

In addition to watching for Keenum – no stranger to scrambling outside of the pocket – the Redskins’ defensive front will have to contend with Adam Thielen. He’s got the fifth most receiving yards from the slot this season, which means our guys up front will have quite the job on Sunday. This guy is speedy and has the right moves.

Case (Keenum) Closed

One way to help with Case Keenum and Thielen would be to keep them consistently under pressure. Ryan Kerrigan leads the team with pressures and easily the team’s best pass rusher, so this week is a major job opportunity for him. And honestly, considering how well the defense played last week against Seattle, this scenario is not out of the question. We were able to pick off Wilson, sack him a few times, and make a major stop when it most counted. That should be enough here too.

Attack Through the Air

Because how else are you going to attack? Doctson, Davis, and Thompson are the guys we can count on this year to get things done. Reed’s been banged up and inconsistent, Crowder only makes the occasional appearance, and I’m sick of talking about Pryor. Let’s put pressure on guys in the Vikings’ backfield by stretching the field with some deep balls.

Reanimate a Dead Running Game

There are few signs of life in the Redskins rushing attack. Still, we’ll need to do what we can to draw defensive backs down into the box and give our receivers a chance. Word on the street is that guys like Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao are practicing again, so let’s pray they can create some gaps and running lanes.

SEAN’S 3 KEY MATCHUPS

Redskins Defense vs. Thielen, Murray, and McKinnon

With Thielen operating out of the slot much of the time and guys like Murray and McKinnon taking snaps, the Redskins have much to contend with up front. Good luck.

Davis and Doctson vs. Vikings Secondary

Davis is a matchup nightmare for LBs, so he might get some extra attention from the Viking’s secondary. Doctson had a great showing last week that essentially saved the game in Seattle. I have high hopes for both of these guys this week.

Kyle Rudolph vs. Redskins Defense

Who’s covering Rudolph? This guy is a genuine Redskins-killer, logging TDs in his last 3 consecutive games against us. I still have flashbacks to him running down the middle of the field, uncovered.

SEAN CUTS TO THE CHASE

Initially I predicted a loss this week. I’ve changed my mind. The Redskins are a little healthier and their 4-4 season record is anchored by the insanely difficult schedule to this point. Minnesota isn’t quite as good as their record suggests. It’s a tough, defensive game, but the Redskins win: 21-17.

OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)

LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice

NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out

D – doubtful

Redskins	Vikings
DL M. Ioannidis, hand; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O	DE E. Griffen, foot; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q
DL A. Jones, shoulder; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O	T M. Remmers, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O
T T. Williams, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q	G J. Sirles, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O
WR J. Crowder, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	DE S. Weatherly, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; game: Q
TE V. Davis, hand/hand; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP	S A. Harris, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; game: Q
G S. Lauvao, stinger; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	G D. Isidora, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
C S. Long, knee/knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q; Fri: LP; game: Q	QB T. Bridgewater, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
T M. Moses, ankle/ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	G N. Easton, calf; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
S M. Nicholson, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	WR M. Floyd, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
T T. Nsekhe, core muscle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	WR L. Treadwell, toe; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
TE N. Paul concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP ; Fri: DNP; game: Q	WR S. Diggs, tooth; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP
WR B. Quick, concussion; Wed: LP ; Thurs: LP; ; Fri: LP; game: Q
TE J. Reed, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: Q
G B. Scherff, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
CB B. Breeland, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
CB F. Moreau, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
LB Z. Brown, ankle; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q

TEAM STATISTICS

Redskins:

From a statistical perspective, the Redskins took a hit as a result of the Seattle game, the win notwithstanding. Some of the drops in the rankings of the accumulating stats, such as total yards (18th) and passing yards (14th) are the result of normalization as a result of most (but not all) teams having now had their bye week. Regardless, the Redskins trends that are apparent simply from watching the games continue to show up in these metrics; for example, the Redskins are averaging only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt, which is ranked 23rd in the NFL, despite the stellar numbers posted by running back Chris Thompson. Also, quarterback Kirk Cousins has a career normal 67.9% complettion percentage despite being on track for fewer total passing yards in comparison to 2016. This is, of course, due to poor production from the wide receiver group. Thompson continues to be the team’s leading receiver, which is bad. Other statistical notes: the Redskins sack ranking continues to drift downwards, particularly in comparison to last year, having given up 22 on the season (ranked 18th). This is clearly due to the downright scary injury situation. Finally, red zone efficiency is decent, much, much better than 2016, with 56% of trips being converted into touchdowns, good for a 14th place ranking.

Defensively, the Redskins are essentially an average team by most measures – such as, points (21st), total yards (16th), rushing yards per attempt (19th). While this doesn’t sound positive, considering just how bad this team was almost across the defensive board in 2016, the fact that they are now “average” is a testament to the great job the coaches and players have done to improve.

One special teams note: the Redskins are one of the very worst punt return teams in the NFL. They are averaging only 5.0 yards per return, which is ranked 30th.

Record 4 – 4 (3rd) (Home: 2 – 2; NFC: 3 – 3)

All-time franchise record: 590 – 576 – 28

Offense

Offensive rankings	17 (points) (trend -1) / 18 (total yards) (trend -2) / 14 (yards per game) (trend even) / 14 (yards per play) (trend -7) / 14 (passing yards) (trend -2) / 5 (passing yards per att.) (trend -1) / 22 (rushing yards) (trend even) / 23 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -7)
Points for	177
Yards per game	343.0
Passing	268 att (24th); 182 comp; 67.9% comp per. (4th); 8.0 Y/A; 1955 net yds; 13 TD; 4 Int
Passing leader	Cousins (268 att, 2147 yds (8th), 67.9% comp perc., 13 TDs / 4 Int (35th), 102.0 QB rating (7th)
Receiving leader	Thompson (453 yds (28th), 46 targets (58th), 35 rec (34th), 3 TDs, 12.0 Y/C)
Rushing	205 att (20th); 789 yds; 3.8 Y/A; 98.6 Y/G; 6 TD
Rushing leader	Thompson (51 att, 251 yds (41st), 2 TDs, 4.9 Y/A, long 61); Kelley (58 att (43rd), 184 yds, 3 TDs, 3.2 YPC
Sacks surrendered / rank	22 / 18
Ave time of possession / rank	30:33/ 15
3rd down conversion rate / rank	37.3% / 21
TD percentage in red zone / rank	56.0% / 13

Defense

Defensive rankings	21 (points) (trend +3) / 16 (total yards) (trend -8) / 18 (yards per game surrendered) (trend -6) / 20 (yards per play) (trend -5) / 16 (passing yards) (trend -6) / 20 (passing yards per att.) (trend -2) / 16 (rushing yards) (trend -4) / 19 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -3)
Points against	194
Yards per game surrendered	336.9
Opponent’s passing	271 att (13th); 165 comp; 60.9% comp perc. (13th); 7.2 Y/A; 1811 net yds; 12 TDs; QB Rating 85.3 (14th)
Opponent’s rushing	210 att (15); 884 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 6 TD; 110.5 Y/G (16th)
Sacks / rank / Sack leader	22/ 12 / Kerrigan (6.0)
Tackles leader	Brown (57)
Int / rank / Int leader	8 / 10/ Fuller (3)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank	40.19% / 19
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank	58.33% / 21

Special Teams

Kick returns	18.9 Y/R (27th), 11 returns, long 24 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns	5.0 Y/R (30th), 15 returns, long 18 yards (26th), 0 TD
Kick return defense	18.0 Y/R (3rd), 11 returns, 0 TD
Punt return defense	9.0 Y/R (21st), 17 returns, 0 TD
Punting	44.2 Y/P (23rd)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 14 / 12 / -2 / 21

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 45 / 2

Vikings:

Offensively, the Vikings are one of the rare teams for which these running season-long stats are not particularly applicable. The reason for that is that (1) quarterback Sam Bradford put up tremendous numbers for two games, but then suffered and injury and is now on injured reserve, and (2) that rookie running back Dalvin Cook put up numbers for a few games that were scary good, but then also went to injured reserve. Bradford and Cook were replaced with Case Keenum and Latavius Murray, neither of whom have posted numbers matching that of their predecessors. Regardless, the Vikings have continued to score points (now ranked 16th), are great on third downs (ranked 6th) and in time of possession (7th). Receiver Adam Theilen has posted some of the better numbers in the league thusfar, with 627 receiving yards on 48 receptions. The Vikings are not susceptible to sacks, having only surrendered 10 on the year (ranked 2nd). Therefore, the Redskins cannot sleep on this Vikings offense.

The Vikings defense is the strength of this team right now. Overall, this defense is one of the best in the NFL, ranked in the top 5 in points surrendered, total yards, yards per play, passing yards, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, and more. They have 24 sacks on the year and are one of the very best teams in the NFL at third down defense (2nd) and red zone defense (3rd). Without a doubt, this is the biggest challenge the Redskins offense has faced so far this year.

Record: 6 – 2 (1st) (Away: 2 – 1; NFC: 4 – 1)

Offense

Offensive rankings	16 (points) / 12 (total yards) / 11 (yards per game) / 14 (yards per play) / 16 (passing yards) / 15 (passing yards per att.) / 11 (rushing yards) / 18 (rushing yards per att.)
Points for	179
Yards per game	358.5
Passing	277 att (19th); 181 comp; 65.3% comp per. (7th); 7.2 Y/A; 1908 net yds; 10 TDs; 3 Int
Passing leader	Keenum (233 att, 1610 yds (25th), 63.9% comp per., 7 TDs / 3 Int, 88.8 QB rating (16th))
Reception leader	Thielen (627 yds (6th), 75 targets (5th), 48 rec (11th), 1 TD, 13.1 Y/C)
Rushing	239 att (11th); 960 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 120.0 Y/G (9th); 7 TDs
Rushing leader	Cook (74 att, 354 yds (26th), 2 TDs, 4.8 Y/A (9th), long 33 yds); Murray (78 att (29th), 249 yds, 1 TD, 3.2 Y/A
Sacks surrendered / rank	10 / 2
Ave time of possession / rank	31:27/ 7
3rd down conversion rate / rank	42.7% / 6
TD percentage in red zone / rank	46.43% / 26

Defense

Defensive rankings	3 (points) / 3 (total yards) / 4 (yards per game surrendered) / 1 (yards per play) / 5 (passing yards) / 4 (passing yards per att.) / 2 (rushing yards) / 3 (rushing yards per att.)
Points against	135
Yards per game surrendered	282.1
Opponent’s passing	279 att (17th); 175 comp; 62.7% comp per. (18th); 6.4 Y/A; 1606 net yds; 9 TD; QB Rating 81.2 (8th)
Opponent’s rushing	188 att (3rd); 651 yds; 3.5 Y/A; 3 TD
Sacks / rank / Sack leader	24/ 8 / Griffen (10.0)
Tackles leader	Kendricks (40)
Int / rank / Int leader	7 / 15 / Smith (3)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank	27.72% / 2
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank	40.0% / 3

Special Teams

Kick returns	25.0 Y/R (4th), 15 returns, long 39 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns	10.8 Y/R (5th), 16 returns, long 46 yards (8th), 0 TDs
Kick return defense	22.7 Y/R (23rd), 23 returns, 0 TDs
Punt return defense	4.3 Y/R (4th), 10 returns, 0 TDs
Punting	41.1 Y/P (32nd)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 8 / 10 / +2 / 13

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 48 / 5

* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com