Game Preview, Week 14: Redskins at Chargers

Posted on December 7, 2017 by Steve Thomas

December 7, 2017

by Steve Thomas and Sean Conte

Well, folks, here we are, with the Redskins entering the final quarter of the season without realistic playoff hopes. As negative as that is, I’d like to point out that this is the first time since 2014 that the Redskins have been in this position, so things have improved, right? Right? The truth is that the team would very much like to finish the year out strong and with a winning record. Standing in the way of that goal this week are the San Diego Anywhere They’ll Build Us a Stadium Rams’ Red-Headed Stepchild Los Angeles Chargers. Shockingly, the Chargers, who started out the year at a rousing 0 – 4, are actually smack in the middle of the AFC West title hunt after proceeding to reel off 6 wins in the next 8 games. Therefore, this game isn’t a pushover for Washington, and in fact is most likely the toughest game remaining on the schedule. Most so-called expert prognosticators, including the Vegas bookmakers, strongly favor Los Angeles in this contest; however, the Redskins really do have a chance to win if they can play some mistake free football (tall order, based on recent history) and attack the Chargers’ glaring weaknesses. How, exactly, might all of this go down, you ask? We just happen to have answers. Read on.

Game time & location: Sunday, December 10, 2017, 4:05 p.m. ET, Stubhub Center, Carson, CA; Parking lots open at 12:05 p.m. PT; bowl seating opens at 2:05 p.m. PT

Television: CBS

Television announcers: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn

DC-area radio: ESPN 980

Redskins radio network: http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/radio-network.html

Chargers radio network: http://www.chargers.com/schedule/radio-network

Satellite radio: XM: 81 (Chargers broad) Sirius: 134 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)

Redskins roster: http://www.redskins.com/team/roster.hml

Redskins depth chart: http://www.redskins.com/team/depth-chart.html

Chargers roster: http://www.chargers.com/team/roster

Chargers depth chart: http://www.chargers.com/team/depth-chart

All-time head-to-head record vs Chargers: 7 – 3 – 0 (last 5: 2 – 3)

Last meeting: W, November 3, 2013, 30 – 24

Early odds: Chargers, -6

SEAN’S 5 KEYS TO THE GAME

A River(s) Runs Through It

Our defense, that is. Rivers is on fire of late, and the Chargers are fresh off four wins. He likes to find Keenan Allen (tops in the NFL) for scores, which every team in the league likely knows by now. Tyrell Williams and Antonio gates are also around, as is the Chargers’ bruising tight end Hunter Henry. Hopefully the Redskins defense can overcome their coverage issues. It’s not enough to shut these guys down in terms of yardage production but to allow touchdowns in the red zone.

Lock down the Running Game

Sticking with the defensive improvement theme, the Redskins will have to play better against the run this week. They looked atrocious against former teammate Alfred Morris last week in Dallas, but they should have a chance to rebound against a struggling Melvin Gordon. Locking down the run will force Rivers and the Chargers’ offense to get one-dimensional, exactly what our struggling defense needs. Let’s stay aggressive up front and stuff the run with guys like McGee and McClain.

Embrace the Role of Spoiler

Let’s face it; this year is virtually over for the Redskins. That’s not the case for the Chargers, who, despite holding a record that isn’t terribly far off our own, still have post-season hopes. In fact, they’re tied for the divisional lead with Kansas City and Oakland. That means the Redskins will be able to do what oh so many teams have done to us in the last few years: drag the Chargers dreams down into the NFL doldrums with us. If this team comes out limp and lackadaisical, it’ll cement to me that Jay Gruden is a clown with no control over this undisciplined group of slackers. Playing well, however, might change that.

Hold onto the Football

Sadly, the Redskins have not been able to hold onto the football of late. That’s not a recipe for success, as we know the team that limits turnovers has a far greater chance of winning. That’s not going to happen if Jamison Crowder – Washington’s leading receiver – continues to cough up possession to opposing teams. And Kirk can’t eat hits like he did last week, or we can expect to see more Chargers defenders gobbling up loose balls. The Redskins must capitalize on scoring opportunities this week, and holding onto the ball is a major part of that.

Run It

The Chargers are not great at stopping the run. As in, they’re ranked 31 of 32 possible teams. This means that Washington’s underperforming stable of running backs might have a chance this week. At the very least, we need, as always, to show we’re committed to a balanced offensive attack.

SEAN’S 3 KEY MATCHUPS

Keenan Allen vs. Josh Norman

This one’s a no brainer: LA’s speedy receiver needs to be kept in check with our best guy in coverage. Norman hasn’t quite been playing up to his billing as a top-tier corner, though it’s difficult to say whether that’s because of a lingering rib injury, a lack of weapons around him, or something else.

Ryan Kerrigan vs. Joe Barksdale

While a good pass rush is critical to any defense, word on the town is that the right side of the Charger’s offensive line is critically underperforming, due in large part to 3rd year man Joe Barksdale’s poor play. The Chargers o-line is patchwork like ours is. While it’s been playing better later in the season, we should be able to find paydirt.

Zach Brown vs. Everyone

The league’s leading tackler needs to get back into top form this week. Brown’s dealing with lingering injury issues (who isn’t?), and we’ve now seen the obvious defensive regression with him playing at a B level. It isn’t pretty. Come back to us, Zach.

SEAN CUTS TO THE CHASE

The Redskins have too little to play for, the Chargers too much. Everyone’s too beaten up to play with heart this week, and we see a number of defensive implosions and missed scoring opportunities before LA runs away with it. It’s Redskins 14, Chargers 28.

OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)

LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice

NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out

D – doubtful

Redskins	Chargers
LB Z. Brown, hamstring/achilles; Wed; DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	TE A. Gates, rest; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP
T M. Moses, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	CB C. Hayward, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP
S M. Nicholson, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O	DT C. Liuget; toe; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP
TE J. Reed, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O	S A. Phillips, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP
T T. Williams, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q	C S. Pulley, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP
WR M. Harris, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: O	WR M. Williams, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP
DL T. McClain, toe; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
C C. Rouiller, hand; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
LB M. Spaight, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
DL M. Ioannidis, hand; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
DL A. Lanier II, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
T T. Nsekhe, core muscle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
G B. Scherff, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP

TEAM STATISTICS

Redskins:

The Redskins offense statistics continue to hold form, as they should this late in the season, and show that Washington remains a mediocre offense (injuries aside) in terms of the major stats: points (12th), total yards (12th), net passing yards (12th), rushing yards (23rd). Kirk Cousins, individually, is having an outstanding season, numbers-wise. He is on pace to pass for over 411 yards and a QB rating of roughly 100. Sacks surrendered are becoming a problem in recent weeks (35 surrendered, ranked 22nd), and the team still isn’t very good on third downs (36.3%). The one category that has remained a dramatic improvement is red zone efficiency, with the team now at 57.89%, compared to 46% last season.

Defensively, the Redskins remain one of the worst in the NFL in points allowed (30th) and red zone defense (29th). The Dallas game is the cause of the plummeting rushing yards ranking (down 7 places from last week, to 22nd. It’s safe to say that, statistically, despite the massive injury problem, this defense remains slightly better than the 2016 version in most categories except the most important one (points). We’ll see if that remains true by the end of the year.

Lastly, I would be remiss in pointing out that the Redskins are now the 2nd-worst punt return team in the NFL and the worst in the NFL at punt return defense. Good times.

Record 5 – 7 (3rd) (Away: 2 – 4; AFC: 1 – 1)

All-time franchise record: 591 – 579 – 28

Offense

Offensive rankings	12 (points) (trend even) / 12 (total yards) (trend -1) / 12 (yards per game) (trend -1) / 11 (yards per play) (trend -3) / 12 (passing yards) (trend -1) / 4 (passing yards per att.) (trend -1) / 23 (rushing yards) (trend -5) / 23 (rushing yards per att.) (trend even)
Points for	272
Yards per game	349.8
Passing	413 att (15th); 275 comp; 66.6% comp per. (7th); 8.0 Y/A; 2993 net yds; 21 TD; 8 Int
Passing leader	Cousins (413 att, 3289 yds (5th), 66.6% comp perc., 21 TDs / 8 Int, 99.6 QB rating (7th)
Receiving leader	Crowder (628 yds (35th), 79 targets (35th), 51 rec (30th), 1 TD, 12.3 Y/C)
Rushing	315 att (19th); 1204 yds; 3.8 Y/A; 100.3 Y/G (23rd); 9 TD
Rushing leader	Perine (125 att, 465 yds (33rd), 1 TD, 3.7 Y/A (29th), long 30)
Sacks surrendered / rank	35 / 22
Ave time of possession / rank	30:44 / 10
3rd down conversion rate / rank	36.3% / 25
TD percentage in red zone / rank	57.89% / 9

Defense

Defensive rankings	30 (points) (trend -5) / 19 (total yards) (trend +1) / 19 (yards per game surrendered) (trend +1) / 18 (yards per play) (trend +5) / 13 (passing yards) (trend +12) / 19 (passing yards per att.) (trend +5) / 22 (rushing yards) (trend -7) / 19 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +3)
Points against	314
Yards per game surrendered	340.1
Opponent’s passing	390 att (8th); 239 comp; 61.3% comp perc. (13th); 7.3 Y/A; 2669 net yds; 20 TDs; QB Rating 87.9 (15th)
Opponent’s rushing	330 att (20th); 1412 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 10 TD; 117.7 Y/G (22nd)
Sacks / rank / Sack leader	29 / 15 / Kerrigan (9.0)
Tackles leader	Brown (79)
Int / rank / Int leader	12 / 7th / Fuller (4)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank	40.25% / 19
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank	64.1% / 29

Special Teams

Kick returns	20.2 Y/R (24th), 20 returns, long 29 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns	5.0 Y/R (31st), 20 returns, long 18 yards (31st), 0 TD
Kick return defense	19.7 Y/R (7th), 19 returns, 0 TD
Punt return defense	12.3 Y/R (32nd), 24 returns, 1 TD
Punting	44.7 Y/P (20th)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 20 / 16 / -4 / 22

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 71 / 6

Chargers:

The Chargers are an outstanding passing offense. Quarterback Phillip Rivers is 4th in the NFL in total passing yards, and the team as a whole is 2nd in the NFL in net passing yards. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. Despite this, the Chargers are only ranked 17th in points scored. The reason for this appears to be their run game, ranked 26th in rushing yards and 25th in rushing yards per attempt. The poor run game seems to be contributing to poor red zone performance (ranked 27th). The Redskins pass defense will have its hands full against a team that gives up very few sacks (13, #1 in the NFL) and has a big-time target in Allen.

The Chargers defense is a dichotomy. It has been outstanding against the pass in almost every way, ranked 4th in interceptions, 4th in sacks, and 5th in passing yards. At the other end of that spectrum, however, is the run defense, which is terrible (31st in total rushing yards surrendered and 31st in rushing yards per attempt). If ever there was a team for the Redskins offense to finally start to run the ball consistently against, it’s the Nobody Wants Us Los Angeles Chargers.

Record: 6 – 6 (1st, tied) (Home: 3 – 3; NFC East: 2 – 1)

Offense

Offensive rankings	17 (points) / 9 (total yards) / 9 (yards per game) / 6 (yards per play) / 2 (passing yards) / 8 (passing yards per att.) / 26 (rushing yards) / 25 (rushing yards per att.)
Points for	268
Yards per game	363.1
Passing	436 att (9th); 277 comp; 63.5% comp per. (11th); 7.6 Y/A; 3238 net yds; 21 TDs; 7 Int
Passing leader	Rivers (431 att, 3292 yds (4th), 63.1% comp per., 21 TDs / 7 Int, 96.0 QB rating (13th))
Reception leader	Allen (1032 yds (5th), 121 targets (4th), 77 rec (4th), 5 TD, 13.4 Y/C)
Rushing	302 att (21st); 1119 yds; 3.7 Y/A; 93.3 Y/G (25th); 7 TDs
Rushing leader	Gordon (207 att, 775 yds (9th), 5 TDs, 3.7 Y/A (29th), long 87 yds)
Sacks surrendered / rank	13 / 1
Ave time of possession / rank	29:41 / 20
3rd down conversion rate / rank	40.0% / 12
TD percentage in red zone / rank	44.12% / 27

Defense

Defensive rankings	4 (points) / 17 (total yards) / 17 (yards per game surrendered) / 12 (yards per play) / 5 (passing yards) / 3 (passing yards per att.) / 31 (rushing yards) / 31 (rushing yards per att.)
Points against	212
Yards per game surrendered	335.4
Opponent’s passing	411 att (17th); 257 comp; 62.5% comp per. (18th); 6.5 Y/A; 2468 net yds; 13 TD; QB Rating 76.6 (3rd)
Opponent’s rushing	324 att (16th); 1557 yds; 4.8 Y/A; 9 TD
Sacks / rank / Sack leader	35 / 4 / Bosa (11.5)
Tackles leader	Addae (57)
Int / rank / Int leader	15 / 4 / Boston/Hayward (4)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank	41.76% / 24
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank	37.93% / 2

Special Teams

Kick returns	18.8 Y/R (30th), 23 returns, long 44 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns	8.0 Y/R (19th), 22 returns, long 65 yards (6th), 1 TDs
Kick return defense	25.5 Y/R (29th), 36 returns, 0 TDs
Punt return defense	7.9 Y/R (19th), 35 returns, 0 TDs
Punting	48.5 Y/P (4th)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 10 / 21 / +11 / 3

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 79 / 15

* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com