How Close are the Redskins to Being a Contender?
June 12, 2018
by Steve Thomas
Congrats to the Washington Capitals for winning the Stanley Cup for the first time. This column was published on the day of their championship parade in downtown D.C., and the party hasn’t stopped since their victory last Thursday night. I’m not going to pretend that I’m a big hockey fan or a big Caps fan, because I’m not, but I’m truly happy for the team and the city.
The Caps’ continuing success, culminating with this championship, made me think about the future of our favorite team. The Washington Capitals have been on the precipice of a Stanley Cup for many years, only to see the dream die one way or the other deep in the playoffs. That’s been tough for fans of the team, but it’s far better than what the Redskins have been through over the last 25 years. We’re now about to enter year 5 of the Jay Gruden era. Is the team any closer to the Redskins being truly relevant again than they were when Gruden arrived?
My first column for this site three years ago was something called Hope Springs Eternal (read it here). In that piece, I discussed the hope and excitement that Redskins fans had for decades, how it was destroyed, and then rebuilt in the midst of the fervor that came with the hiring of Scot McCloughan as general manager. Unfortunately, that particular piece of sports goodness infamously blew up in the team’s face in very public fashion, leaving the hated Bruce Allen in charge of a season that ended in losing fashion – which, of course, is how the Jay Gruden era began in the first place. Over the past 10 seasons, the Redskins have finished, in order, 4th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 1st, 4th, 4th, 1st, 3rd, and most recently, 3rd, in the NFC East. Does that look like the records of a team on the cusp? We’re fond of saying that the Redskins have graduated from NFL laughingstock to mediocre. I’ve said something similar on the show more than once, but at least at this moment, I’m not sure it’s true. Or, if it is true, if that kind of step actually matters.
With that having been said, I’d like to take a look at all phases of the organization to see how it stacks up now in comparison to the dream that is a competitive franchise. The grades are my subjective wag on how I view each team area in comparison to the rest of the NFL.
Ownership
Dan Snyder obviously remains the owner of the team, and that isn’t going to change any time soon, perhaps for decades. After all, in spite of the fact that he took control of the franchise 18 years ago, he’s still only 53 years old. Owning the Redskins was his childhood dream, so selling the team isn’t likely. He could conceivably remain in charge for better or worse for another 40 years. The key question is whether Mr. Snyder’s ownership skills have improved to a level reflective of a top NFL franchise. It’s tough to objectively measure this except for the team’s win-loss record. His influence as an NFL owner doesn’t seem to have changed much. He’s known as one of the least powerful owners amongst his peers. His committee assignments as of September 2016 (which is the latest information I could find) were the stadium committee, the media committee, the digital media committee, the business ventures committee, and the international committee. This is certainly a good number of assignments, and of those, the stadium committee is the most important, but none of them are the key committees that truly shape the future of the on the field product or that guide the direction of the NFL.
Snyder obviously began his tenure as a meddlesome, micromanaging owner who personally made critical but poor roster decisions. Let’s not relive that particular Chucky movie. He’s been through a number of senior executives, Cerrato, Shanahan, McCloughan, and Allen, but now seems to have at least stopped the fantasy football-style decision making that highlighted the early part of his tenure. Having said, that, though, Snyder still refuses to put a traditional management structure in place (I discussed this in a column that I released 24 hours before the hiring of Brian Lafemina became known, but the information in it is still relevant. Read it here).
To conclude, I’d say that he’s changed for the better, but has given little indication that he’s risen or is ready to rise up into the ranks of the best owners who produce consistent winners.
Current Grade: D+
Trend: Even
Management
Bruce Allen may be the most hated non-politician in the greater Washington DC metro area. Much is self-inflicted, but some of it is just fan frustration directed at the most visible target. Either way, judging from the team record, he hasn’t been successful. Allen hasn’t been “good” (read about his track record here), but in one sense he hasn’t been quite as bad an executive as one might think (read about his draft record here; read about his free agency record here). On the other hand, he’s presided over public relations disaster after disaster, most of them being avoidable. With the hiring of Doug Williams and Senior Vice President of Player Personnel and Lafemina as COO and President of Business Operations, Allen’s stranglehold on team operations seems to be in an oddly diminished and questionable place, but it’s going to take awhile before we can see how all of this shakes out.
So while changes have been made, I can’t conclude that management is reflective of a consistent winner. The hiring of Doug Williams rescues this grade from being an F.
Current Grade: D
Trend: Questionable
Coaching
Head coach Jay Gruden is about to enter what might be a seminal year for him. For whatever reason, Mr. Snyder has shown more patience with Gruden than any other head coach he’s ever had, but the good will won’t last forever without results. I have to think that if the team has another losing season in which it ends up in 3rd or 4th place, then it seems likely that Gruden may have his seat pulled out from under him. All the same, though, Gruden has made tremendous strides in all areas since his terrible rookie 2014 campaign.
He’s also built what appears to be a solid corps of lieutenants, particularly offensive line coach Jim Callahan and defensive line coach Jim Tomsula, both of whom are considered to be in the top echelon of their peers. Coaches like Randy Jordan (running backs) and Greg Manusky (defensive coordinator) still have to prove they can develop their groups into quality performers
Current Grade: B
Trend: Even
Offense
This unit has gotten younger and more stable, which is good. Some aren’t wild about the swap of Kirk Cousins for Alex Smith, but at a minimum the move brings stability and competence to the most important position for the next 4 years. This isn’t the forum for a Smith/Cousins debate – we’ll get to that in a few weeks. The point is short-to-mid term stability. All the same, this isn’t a case where the Redskins have a 10 year franchise quarterback. They don’t.
Elsewhere, the team has gotten younger along the offensive line, and at running back and receiver. The addition of Chase Roullier at center and the emergence of Morgan Moses at right tackle will give the Redskins a core group to go along with their Pro Bowlers Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff. Yes, more help is needed, particularly at left guard, but this is a solid group which added more depth via Geron Christian.
The running back group hopefully found its franchise back of the future in rookie Derrius Guice. Chris Thompson is still in his prime at age 27 and is the third down and scat back for the next few years. The team has depth in Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine, and Kapri Bibbs, as well as a potential replacement for Chris Thompson in Martez Carter. The problem, of course, is that at the top end, Guice and 2017 draft pick Perine, the group is unproven.
The wide receiver group is similarly stocked. 2016 first round pick Josh Doctson has come to the point at which he needs to start producing. If he can, Washington will have found its #1 receiver for the next decade. If he can’t, then the team is most likely back to square 1 in that regard. Paul Richardson, Jr., was given a large contract without an equivalent amount of production in Seattle to justify it (read my analysis of Richardson here), so in my view he’s a question mark. Jamison Crowder has become a top-flight slot receiver, but he’s a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. The team does have several promising up and comers behind the starters, most prominently including Maurice Harris, but most of those players have much to prove.
At tight end, the team has elite, All Pro-level talent that is either old and approaching the end of the line (Vernon Davis), or extremely injury prone and very expensive (Jordan Reed). Replacements for either those two do not appear to be on the roster.
What’s the big-picture conclusion as to the offense, then? It’s that this unit has many young, unproven pieces that may or may not work out. Only time will tell. If all goes well, the offense can be a top-notch unit, but if not enough of those same things work out, it’ll continue to be mired in mediocrity. We just don’t know at this point.
Current Grade: B-
Trend: Up
Defense
It doesn’t take a towering intellect or the elite football mind of Skip Bayless to know that the Redskins defense has, in a word, sucked. They’ve been utterly unable recently to even slow down an opposing team’s run game for the most part, and despite having significant assets in the secondary, they haven’t been much better against the pass, either.
However, the Redskins have shown an unwavering commitment to improve against the run, spending two first round draft picks in a row on defensive lineman (Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne) and re-signing weakside tackling machine Zach Brown despite his coverage limitations. Assuming health (which is an open question), those three alone should allow for a much better run defense for the future going forward.
The pass rush has a Pro Bowl talent in Ryan Kerrigan and a bunch of question marks behind him. Preston Smith has quality advanced statistics but has yet to put it all together and fulfill his promise for an entire year. The pass rush has some talent, but needs another piece or two in order to be solidified.
The defensive backfield has been up and down despite the presence of a true #1 corner in Josh Norman and an improving safety core. It’s possible that the team has its starting safety tandem of the future in D.J. Swearinger and Montae Nicholson, but certainly Nicholson has more yet to prove. Question marks remain at corner, with Norman turning 31 this year and open jobs to be claimed at the #2 and slot positions.
Overall, there’s work left to be done here, but the defensive line, in particular, is promising. The team’s slight statistical improvement over 2017 despite the injuries rescues this unit from an F.
Current Grade: D+
Trend: Up
Special Teams
The Redskins are in a good place in their punting and kicking game, finally, for the first time in what seems like a decade or more. Both kicker Dustin Hopkins and punter Tress Way are signed through 2020 and are quality players.
The opposite is true with regard to the team’s punt and kickoff return teams, because the Redskins are awful, one of the worst teams in the NFL, at both. The team tried desperately to find new blood this offseason via the arrival of Greg Stroman, Trey Quinn, and Martez Carter. Expect one or two of those players to be the team’s new punt and kickoff returner.
From a coverage perspective, the Redskins are neither great nor terrible, and have brought in Troy Apke to hopefully become a unit stalwart.
Current Grade: C
Trend: Questionable
Conclusion
After going through this exercise, I can’t honestly say that it’s clear that the Redskins are ready to take the next step back into the ranks of the solid contenders. There are just too many open questions on the roster, and the team’s management is still an overall negative. What’s different now is that the team has hope. There are players at most of the position groups who, given time and a few lucky breaks, can at some point in the next couple of years become the foundation of a contending team. However, if Jay Gruden gets fired, and with team management being in flux, there’s no telling what may happen next. We just don’t know how things are going to turn out.
Overall, there are reasons for optimism, though, and this coming year will go a long way towards answering the open questions.