The 2018 Run Game After Derrius Guice

August 14, 2018

by Steve Thomas

Now that we’ve had time to process the initial shock of the Redskins losing their second round draft pick and franchise back of the future, Derrius Guice, for the 2018 season to a torn ACL, it’s time to think about what Washington’s run game is going to look like for this coming season.  Let’s not sugarcoat it: losing Guice, who had quickly become a fan favorite thanks largely to an infectious, charismatic personality, does completely change the look of the Redskins offense.  The hope, of course, is that Guice is going to develop into the Redskins’ next great franchise back in the vein of John Riggins, Earnest Byner, Stephen Davis, Clinton Portis, and the rest.  I personally think that head coach Jay Gruden finally learned his lesson about the value of the running game and wants to have an effective one, with Guice as the centerpiece.  Gruden is never going to be Marty Schottenheimer, nor do we want him to, but an effective running game led by a back who has burst, power, and moves and can consistently gain between 4 and 4.5 yards per carry isn’t too much to ask and is something Gruden can and will use.  That was supposed to be Guice’s role this year, and hopefully will be next year.  There’s probably no substitute for losing a player of Guice’s caliber – at least what he appeared poised to become – but the Redskins do have options.

Free Agency

The more unlikely course of action the team could take is to try and find a new franchise back to replace Guice.  The most drastic thing the Redskins could do is to try and trade for a replacement.  That seems so improbable at this point that I’m not even going to speculate on possibilities.  What the team could more realistically do, though, is sign someone to fill the lead back role for this year.  Right now, it doesn’t appear likely, but if things don’t go well in Guice’s absence, it’s possible.  Therefore, let’s go over some candidates.

I’m not going to list every single running back on the market.  The team certainly could sign an undrafted free agent to fight for a back of the roster or practice squad spot, but the goal here is to identify some players who could possibly fill the starter role and take the bulk of the carries.

Let’s get one name off the board immediately: Adrian Peterson.  We’ve had more than a few folks tweet us that the team should break down and sign AP for the year.  That would be a huge mistake – Peterson, who is now 33 years old, only averaged 3.4 yards per carry last season on 156 carries.  His best game in 2017 was on October 15 against Tampa Bay after he had been traded to the Cardinals when he had 134 yards on 26 carries for 5.2 yards per carries.  He also rushed for 159 yards on 37 carries for 4.3 yards per carry against the 49ers on November 5, but other than that he was for the most part ineffective.  He was released by Arizona during the offseason.  A 33 year old, even a first ballot hall of famer like Peterson, who might capture the fountain of youth a couple times over the season is not what the Redskins need.  In short, Peterson is too old and has lost too much to be an every down player.

Next: DeMarco Murray – he’s retired and not coming out of retirement.  He’s 30 years old and averaged 3.6 yards per carry last season on 184 carries for the Titans last season.  That isn’t what the Redskins need.  Enough said.

Orleans Darkwa, formerly with the New York Giants, is a possibility.  I wrote about Darkwa in my free agent running back piece back in February (read it here).  At the time, I ranked him as #4 on my list of free agent backs who would be good for the Redskins, and I still think he would be good here.  Darkwa did well on a terrible Giants team, with 4.4 yards per carry on 171 rushes, and improved over the course of four seasons.  His performance tailed off in the latter half of the season, but the Giants were an abomination, and Orleans demolished the Redskins in week 17 when he went for 154 yards on just 20 carries.  He’s only 26 years old and has just 246 career carries, so he’s not beat up and washed up.  He has a good combination of size, speed, and power.  If the Redskins were to sign someone, he would be a solid choice.

Jamaal Charles is probably the best option remaining on the market as a one year fill-in.  Yes, he’s 31 years old, but he played well in a limited role for Denver last year, with 296 yards on 69 carries for 4.3 yards per carry.  He tore his ACL in October, 2015, and wasn’t fully recovered in 2016.  He ended up needing a second surgery on his meniscus and was placed on injured reserve on November 1.  Yes, I realize that doesn’t sound like the resume of a franchise back, but he did rebound in 2017.  Charles could theoretically come into Washington and do well for a year.  The challenge with someone like this is health, of course, but there aren’t perfect options to replace a highly touted rookie at this point in the preseason.

My first draft of this column had a writeup about Alfred Morris as well (the basics: we love Alf, but he’s a 29 year old who excelled in a zone scheme and nowhere else), but since he reunited with Kyle Shanahan by signing in San Francisco on Monday, he’s no longer an option.

A few other players are probably out there under the radar who have the capability of surprising a team, but there isn’t anyone else on the market who the Redskins would bring in for the purpose of filling the starter’s role.  What’s important to remember is that the perfect candidate won’t be found in mid-August.  Darkwa and Charles (and for that matter, the other backs still on the market) are flawed, and I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise.

In-house options

The best thing that could happen is that one of the remaining backs grabs ahold of the job and becomes what we were hoping Guice would be.  Unfortunately, that’s fairly unlikely.  Two players realistically have a shot at earning that role this year, Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine.  If it happens, I think Kelley is the most likely do be able to do it.  Despite a mediocre showing in last week’s preseason game against the Patriots, Kelley has looked good in camp thusfar and appears to have the confidence of the coaching staff.  A good showing in the next two preseason games could mean that Kelley possibly earns the job.

I was more down on Samaje Perine than some others.  He didn’t show enough last year to make me believe that his ceiling is more than average.  I don’t believe that he has the vision or the burst to become a solid starter, and for such a big back, he frequently doesn’t use his size effectively.  He rushed for 603 yards on 175 carries for an average of 3.4 yards per carry last year.  He did have two 100 yards games last year, against the Saints and Giants in successive weeks; other than that, he was mediocre at best.  But anything’s possible – perhaps Perine steps up in Guice’s absence.

The none of the rest of the running back group – Chris Thompson, Kapri Bibbs, and Byron Marshall – are going to grab a franchise back-type role this year.  Chris Thompson is obviously the most accomplished of this group, and he’s an outstanding third down back, but if 2017 taught us anything, it’s that his highest and best use is in that role, not as an every down back who defenses can key on.  Bibbs and Marshall both showed promise, but it’s not probable that either will do enough in the next three weeks to earn a full-time starter role.

The most likely path for 2018 is a running back by committee situation in which Kelley and/or Perine and/or Bibbs/Marshall are rotated into the game on a regular basis.  No matter what Gruden says now about the team drafting Guice because he was the best player available and not because they were unhappy about the running backs they had last year, the truth in the opposite and everyone knows it.  We’re just going to have to accept the fact that 2018 is probably going to be more of the same, sadly.  Get well soon, Derrius.  We need you.