Game Preview, Week 1: Redskins at Cardinals
September 6, 2018
by Steve Thomas
Well, boys and girls, football Christmas has finally arrived. Week one of the 2018 season is in a nice maroon and black gift box under our politically correct, non-religious festivus tree. This offseason has seemed like it’s lasted forever, for some reason, but we can now look forward to a full five months of nonstop football, which makes me happy. As to this particular matchup, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden has the tide of history of his own making running against him, as his Redskins are 0 – 4 in week one during his tenure. He’d obviously like to change that, and that effort starts with a cross-country trip to the west coast to face the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals, of course, have a new head coach and quarterback, but largely the same fearsome defense that they had last season as well as a certain future hall of fame receiver, so this is by no means a cakewalk. It’s frankly a tall order, but by no means does Arizona outclass our Redskins. It should be a good matchup, so get your popcorn ready and enjoy the return of the NFL. Our first preview of the season is below.
Game time & location: Sunday, September 9, 2018, 4:25 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ; Main Gates open 2:55 p.m. ET; parking lots open 12:25 p.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Thom Brennaman, Chris Spielman, Shannon Spake
DC-area radio: ESPN 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Cardinals radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 228 (Cardinals broad.) Sirius: 119 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Cardinals roster: Click here
Cardinals depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Cardinals: 76 – 46 – 2 (last 10: 8 – 2)
Last meeting: W, December 17, 2017, 20 – 15
Early odds: Even
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Defeat of week one malise
It’s no secret that the Redskins have performed badly on week one during the entirety of Jay Gruden’s tenure in Washington. The most important thing the Redskins can do to ensure a victory against the Cardinals is to reverse that trend and look like they actually care about the game of football. Playing like it actually matters from the opening bell, which this team hasn’t done in a long time, will go a long way. If you wish for nothing else this week, wish for this.
Run defense
It’s time for all of the gyrations the Redskins have gone through to raise the quality of their run defense from horrible up to something better than that to come through. The new and improved defensive front 7 needs to represent a challenge to Cardinals running back David Johnson, who is one of the best in the league. In years past, facing a First Team All Pro running back on week one would be a negative overall event for Washington. This year, the revamped defensive front needs to step up and not let Johnson run wild.
Alex Smith lives up to his billing
We’ve been debating the merits and value of Alex Smith for 7 months now, and the moment has come for this move to pay off. Smith needs to perform like the top-quality quarterback that he’s been for over a decade. Simply put, if this team is going to succeed, Smith is going to have to produce like a top 10 quarterback, and he needs to do it right from the start. The concern is that he’s had precious few live reps this offseason, and even fewer with his full complement of starters, but the time for that excuse is past.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Trent Williams and Morgan Moses vs Chandler Jones
Jones might be the best pass rusher in the NFL. Fortunately, we’re catching him early in the season when Trent Williams is still healthy. The Redskins can’t afford to let Jones run wild and put a ton of pressure on the quarterback. Morgan Moses needs to also do a good job during plays when Jones flips to the defensive left side, because the Cardinals do not leave him strictly on one edge. Arizona will want to maximize his effectiveness, and that means moving Jones around.
Larry Fitzgerald vs Josh Norman
Larry Fitzgerald is one of the greatest receivers ever to play, and even at age 35 is still the key cog to the Cardinals passing offense. Fitzgerald’s 2017 season was one of the best of his career, and there’s no reason to suspect that he’s going to slow down just because another year has gone by. Josh Norman is the big money guy in the defensive backfield, and I’m rooting for him to travel this week and take Fitzgerald for the bulk of the game. Norman needs to come through for the Redskins and not let Fitzgerald rack up the catches, yardage, and touchdowns.
Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne vs David Johnson
Allen and Payne were both brought to Washington specifically to improve run defense more than anything else, and for this week, they represent the front-line challenge to one of the top running backs in the league. These two players, more than anyone else, need to keep Johnson from consistently breaking through to the second level and gaining significant yardage. To do this, Allen and Payne need to be able to shed blocks from the questionable Cardinals offensive line and not be bullied. This represents a huge test for these two young players right off the bat, and is definitely a key to the game.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Cardinals |
| WR M. Harris, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | DE M. Golden, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| LB Z. Brown, oblique; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | TE J. Gresham, achilles; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | RB T.J. Logan, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| T T. Williams, knee; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP | DT R. Nkemdiche, foot; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| LB R. Kerrigan, hip; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: LP | DT C. Peters, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP |
| DT O. Pierre, toe; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| OL K. Cunningham, thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
The Redskins 2017 offense is easy to summarize based on the season statistics shown below: terrible rushing team, medicore passing team, terrible on 3rd down, mediocre in the red zone. Quite a bit has changed from 2017, so there’s no point in giving a long, complicated statistical rehashing of 2017 and have it mean something. In 2018, I expect the Redskins to be much, much better in their ground game thanks to the presence of Adrian Peterson (assuming health). Even an average running game should mean a better third down and red zone percentage. In the passing game, Alex Smith’s record of performance over many years gives us a good indication of what to expect from him, but the statistical results are unknown thanks to the question marks at receiver in Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson, Jr. If all goes well, expect Smith to post a quarterback rating between the high 90s and low 100s, and a completion rating in the mid to upper 60s. If the receivers fail to perform there’s no telling how the numbers will turn out.
Defensively, the 2017 Redskins were, by and large, awful. They were one of the very worst teams in the league against the run and in the most important stat, total points scored. The hope is that the return of Jonathan Allen from injury and the addition of 2018 first round pick Daron Payne allows the team to make a big turnaround in that regard. The Redskins were mediocre against the pass, and nothing has happened to suggest that those numbers will substantially improve this year except for the (hopefully) improved defensive line.
There’s not an adjective that adequately describes the level of horrendous that was the Redskins’ 2017 punt return game and punt return defense. To that end, the Redskins return the exact same punt returner as they had last year, Jamison Crowder, despite trying out a glut of rookies at the position. I can’t say I totally understand this move unless it’s just a practical joke by Jay Gruden.
Record: 7 – 9 (3rd) (Away: 2 – 6; NFC: 5 – 7)
All-time franchise record: 593 – 581 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings (2017) | 16 (points) / 16 (total yards) / 17 (yards per game) / 14 (yards per play) / 12 (passing yards) / 9 (passing yards per att.) / 28 (rushing yards) / 29 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for (2017) | 342 |
| Yards per game (2017) | 324.9 |
| Passing (2017)
|
540 att (18th); 347 comp; 64.3% comp per. (8th); 7.6 Y/A; 3751 net yds; 27 TD; 13 Int |
| Passing leader (2017) | Cousins (540 att, 4093 yds (7th), 64.3% comp perc., 27 TDs / 10 Int, 93.9 QB rating (12th) |
| Receiving leader (2017) | Crowder (789 yds (34th), 103 targets (33rd), 66 rec (27th), 3 TD, 12.0 Y/C) |
| Rushing (2017) | 401 att (24th); 1448 yds; 3.6 Y/A; 90.5 Y/G (27th); 10 TD |
| Rushing leader (2017) | Perine (175 att, 603 yds (32nd), 1 TD, 3.4 Y/A (43rd), long 30) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank (2017) | 41 / 21 |
| Ave time of possession / rank (2017) | 29:40 / 20 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank (2017) | 32.4% / 31 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank (2017) | 54.35% / 16 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings (2017) | 28 (points) / 21 (total yards) / 22 (yards per game surrendered) / 15 (yards per play) / 9 (passing yards) / 16 (passing yards per att.) / 32 (rushing yards) / 29 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against (2017) | 388 |
| Yards per game surrendered (2017) | 347.9 |
| Opponent’s passing (2017) | 531 att (12th); 306 comp; 57.6% comp perc. (3rd); 7.0 Y/A; 3420 net yds; 23 TDs; QB Rating 81.0 (10th) |
| Opponent’s rushing (2017) | 472 att (29th); 2146 yds; 4.5 Y/A; 13 TD; 134.1 Y/G (32nd) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader (2017) | 42 / 7 / Kerrigan (13.0) |
| Tackles leader (2017) | Brown (84) |
| Int / rank / Int leader (2017) | 16 /9 / Fuller, Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank (2017) | 36.73% / 7 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank (2017) | 50.88% / 12 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns (2017) | 19.8 Y/R (25th), 35 returns, long 35 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns (2017) | 6.1 Y/R (27th), 29 returns, long 29 yards (22nd), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense (2017) | 18.7 Y/R (2nd), 24 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense (2017) | 11.2 Y/R (31st), 39 returns, 1 TD |
| Punting (2017) | 45.7 Y/P (13th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank) (2017): 27 / 23 / -4 / 23
Penalties (total accepted # / rank) (2017): 92 / 3
Cardinals:
The numbers show that the 2017 Cardinals’ offense was one of the worst in the league, the presence of All-Everything receiver Larry Fitzgerald and current Redskin Adrian Peterson notwithstanding. Like Washington though, it’s a totally different unit, with a new head coach, Steve Wilks, a new starting quarterback in Sam Bradford and the return of All Pro running back David Johnson. Bradford has been at least above average when healthy; his problem is that he can’t stay healthy more than him not being able to effectively play. What the Redskins face on offense, statistically, will likely be a dramatically improved rushing attack at a minimum, and likely a far more effective passing attack.
Defensively, the 2017 Arizona defense was above average or even elite in most areas with the exception of red zone scoring (25th) and total points (19th), which is a direct reflection of their struggles in the red zone. Considering that sack artist Chandler Jones and the bulk of his 2017 teammates return, with the notable exception of Tyrann Mathieu (now with the Texans), it’s safe to assume that this defense should represent a top-quality test for the Redskins.
Record: 8 – 8 (3rd) (Home: 5 – 3; NFC: 5 – 7)
Offense
| Offensive rankings (2017)
|
25 (points) / 22 (total yards) / 22 (yards per game) / 30 (yards per play) / 15 (passing yards) / 19 (passing yards per att.) / 30 (rushing yards) / 32 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for (2017) | 295 |
| Yards per game (2017) | 314.4 |
| Passing (2017) | 598 att (5th); 339 comp; 56.7% comp per. (31st); 6.7 Y/A; 3640 net yds; 21 TDs; 18 Int |
| Passing leader (2017) | Palmer (267 att, 1978 yds (29th), 61.4% comp per., 9 TDs / 7 Int, 84.4 QB rating (21st)) |
| Reception leader (2017) | Fitzgerald (1156 yds (8th), 161 targets (3rd), 109 rec (2nd), 6 TD, 10.6 Y/C) |
| Rushing (2017) | 410 att (20th); 1386 yds; 3.4 Y/A; 86.6 Y/G (30th); 6 TDs |
| Rushing leader (2017) | Peterson (156 att, 529 yds (39th), 2 TDs, 3.4 Y/A (43rd), long 27 yds) (Saints + Cardinals) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank (2017) | 52 / 29 |
| Ave time of possession / rank (2017) | 30:55 / 7 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank (2017) | 35.2% / 24 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank (2017) | 41.67% / 30 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings (2017) | 19 (points) / 6 (total yards) / 4 (yards per game surrendered) / 3 (yards per play) / 14 (passing yards) / 8 (passing yards per att.) / 6 (rushing yards) / 3 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against (2017) | 361 |
| Yards per game surrendered (2017) | 310.8 |
| Opponent’s passing (2017) | 564 att (25th); 343 comp; 60.8% comp per. (14th); 6.7 Y/A; 3541 net yds; 24 TD; QB Rating 83.9 (14th) |
| Opponent’s rushing (2017) | 407 att (10th); 1432 yds; 3.5 Y/A; 12 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader (2017) | 37 / 17 / Jones (17.0) |
| Tackles leader (2017) | Dansby (74) |
| Int / rank / Int leader (2017) | 15 / 12th / Bethea (5) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank (2017) | 35.71% / 6 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank (2017) | 58.70% / 25 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns (2017) | 20.4 Y/R (22nd), 29 returns, long 55 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns (2017) | 7.0 Y/R (22nd), 41 returns, long 20 yards (28th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense (2017) | 22.0 Y/R (20th), 40 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense (2017) | 10.5 Y/R (29th), 48 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting (2017) | 47.3 Y/P (6th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank) (2017): 25 / 21 / -4 / 23
Penalties (total accepted # / rank) (2017): 111 / 19
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com