Game Preview, Week 3: Packers at Redskins
September 21, 2018
by Steve Thomas
The 2018 home opener couldn’t have been a bigger disaster. The Redskins played terribly in basically every phase of the game against a mediocre-at-best team in the Colts in front the first non-sellout game in 50 years. Yikes. That’s what you call, “a low point”. Don’t worry: the Redskins are only facing Aaron Rodgers this week. As in, future first ballot Hall of Famer, Super Champion, MVP, best quarterback in the game. That Aaron Rodgers. He comes in limping, though, as he suffered a knee injury in week one, so he’s likely still not himself, and the Packers don’t quite have the receivers that they’ve had in the past. In other words, there’s hope, and as most of you know, the Jay Gruden Redskins have an odd historical habit of playing down to bad teams and up to good teams. It’s therefore entirely possible that this game may be far more competitive than one might think. Quite a bit has to go right in order for the Redskins to get the win, for sure, but it’s not completely ridiculous to harbor thoughts of victory. Our game preview is below.
Game time & location: Sunday, September 23, 2018, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Landover, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis, Pam Oliver
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Packers radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 234 (Cardinals broad.) Sirius: 134 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Packers roster: Click here
Packers depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Packers: 14 – 18 – 1 (last 10: 4 – 6)
Last meeting: W, November 20, 2016, 42 – 24
Early odds: Packers, -2.5
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Be prepared and ready to play
Not to beat a dead horse, but the Redskins can’t afford to have two bad games in a row. I wish I didn’t have to actually write this: it’s mandatory that the team come ready to play, be well-prepared, and in a positive, aggressive frame of mind. Washington won’t be able to win any game, let alone against a team like the Packers, if the team is as sloppy and lacksidaisical in attitude as it was this past Sunday. For the love of all that’s good and holy, Redskins, please look like a real NFL team on Sunday. A win obviously isn’t in the cards otherwise. Enough said.
The offensive line must be better
The offensive line played very poorly as a unit last week. They missed blocking assignments, failed to recognize stunts, used poor technique, got multiple false start penalties, and generally played one of their worst games in a long time. This group must open up rushing lanes against an underrated Green Bay defensive front seven in order to allow Washington to control the clock and keep the Packer offense off the field as much as possible.
Make Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable
Aaron Rodgers played his week two contest against the Vikings essentially on one leg. He was an immobile pocket passer who was favoring his healthy leg even during his throwing motion. Normally, Rodgers improvises, rolls out, and scrambles as a regular part of his playing style, and bails his team out on a routine basis. If he is still very limited against the Redskins, which seems likely given that he hasn’t practiced yet week, Washington’s defensive front, in particular the edge rushers, need to collapse the pocket, make Rodgers uncomfortable, force him to move, and put him on the ground. Normally, using the ends to contain Rodgers in the pocket is a key; this week, because of his injuries, the edge rushers must pursue him and make him step up in the pocket and scramble on that bad knee.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Kerrigan has achieved very little in the way of results thusfar this season. As I mentioned above, this is the week that his particular skillset will be of immense value. Kerrigan must be able to beat Packers right tackle Bryan Bulaga on a regular basis and get to Rodgers. Kerrigan’s historical tendency is to have a few fairly quiet games, but then come back with a stat sheet-filling amazing effort. This is the week to see that version of Ryan.
Aaron Jones vs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne
Packers second year running back Aaron Jones returns from his two game suspension this week, which is a bit of unfortunate timing for Washington. In my view, Jones is clearly Green Bay’s best back; that’s certainly true from a statistical standpoint. The Redskins’ young pair of Alabama defensive linemen need to continue their impressive performances this season and keep Jones in check. I think the return of Jones and an injured Rodgers will mean more of a ground game from the Packers than we’d otherwise see, despite the fact that the Redskins have been fairly good against the run, so keep an eye out on this matchup.
Josh Doctson vs Tramon Williams and Kevin King
It’s no secret that the Redskins’ #1 receiver needs to start consistently producing for the passing game to be fully productive. Doctson will have ample opportunities against the Packers corners. The Redskins need to be able to use its wide receiver corps as a threat against a team like the Packers who has a vulnerable defense, and it starts with Doctson. The Packers are vunerable, and Jay Gruden’s offense is far more effective with more big threat options. You can do it, Josh.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Packers |
| S T. Apke, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | LB O. Burks, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; game: Q |
| LB Z. Brown, oblique; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | CB D. House, biceps; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| WR P. Richardson, shoulder/knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | S J. Jones, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| S. Lauvao, calf; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | S K. King, groin; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| G B. Scherff, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | QB A. Rodgers; knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
| T T. Williams, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | |
| LB S. Dion-Hamilton, elbow; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR M. Harris, concussion; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; game: Q | |
| T M. Moses, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri | |
| CB J. Norman, illness; Wed: not listed; Thurs; LP; Fri: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
First of all, the cumulative stats and rankings are very deceiving this early in the season, and you shouldn’t put a ton of stock into any of them for a few more weeks. At this point, it’s more of a loose indication, at most, of where the Redskins stand. Offensively, what should jump out at you is that the Redskins are doing fairly well in the yardage stats – 12th in total yards, 14th in passing yards, 7th in rushing yards – but more less so in scoring: 27th in points and 19th in red zone efficiency. This is a direct result of the dud the team laid last week against the Colts, but it’s also been Washington’s statistical pattern for several years now. The team is fairly good at piling up yards, but less so in scoring touchdowns, and thanks to the Colts game, the pattern continues.
The Redskins defensive stats are a great example of why statistics that are not based in a statistically relevant sample size have limited value. The numbers below show that, in essence, Washington’s defense is the #1 defense in the NFL. Anyone who’s watched these two games knows that while they’ve been fairly good at times, calling them the best in the NFL is a gross exaggeration. These numbers are due largely to the fact that the Redskins played a terrible Cardinals team and a mediocre Colts team. Right now, today, the Redskins defense is 2nd in points, 1st in total yards, 1st in passing yards, and 10th in rushing yards, and that’s great, but get ready to see these rankings fall to one extent or the other as the season progresses.
Much like last year, Washington continues to struggle on special teams. Nothing tragic has happened, yet, but the team still can’t return kicks (28th) or punts (20th), or defend very well either (29th in punt returns). Punter Tress Way is off to a lousy start, with the team ranked 29th in yards per punt.
Record: 1 – 1 (1st (tied)) (Home: 0 – 1; NFC: 1 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 594 – 582 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 27 (points) / 12 (total yards) / 12 (yards per game) / 19 (yards per play) / 14 (passing yards) / 18 (passing yards per att.) / 7 (rushing yards) / 19 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 33 |
| Yards per game | 381.5_ |
| Passing
|
76 att (12th); 54 comp; 71.1% comp per. (7th); 7.2 Y/A; 516 net yds; 2 TD; 0 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (76 att, 547 yds (14th), 71.1% comp perc., 2 TDs / 0 Int, 100.1 QB rating (11th) |
| Receiving leader | Thompson (155 yds (24th), 21 targets (17th), 19 rec (3rd), 1 TD, 8.2 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 64 att (2nd); 247 yds; 3.9 Y/A; 123.5 Y/G (7th); 1 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (37 att, 116 yds (14th), 1 TD, 3.1 Y/A (38th), long 17) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 6 /22 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 35:44 / 1 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 39.3 / 13 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 50.00% / 19 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 2 (points) / 1 (total yards) / 1 (yards per game surrendered) / 3 (yards per play) / 1 (passing yards) / 2 (passing yards per att.) / 10 (rushing yards) / 19 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 27 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 247.1____ |
| Opponent’s passing | 65 att (9th); 41 comp; 63.1% comp perc. (12th); 5.1 Y/A; 322 net yds; 2 TDs; QB Rating 67.0 (4th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 43 att (7th); 172 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 2 TD; 86.0 Y/G (10th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 3 /23 / Ioannidis (2.0) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (11) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 3 /5th / Swearinger (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 41.67% / 24 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 80.0% / 25 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 13.3 Y/R (28th), 3 returns, long 24 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.0 Y/R (20th), 3 returns, long 12 yards (20th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 19.0 Y/R (8th), 1 return, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 22.0 Y/R (29th), 2 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 40.9 Y/P (29th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 2 / 4 / +2 / 4
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 16 / 20
Packers:
The same caveat about statistical relevance of rankings applies here – the small sample size doesn’t give us an accurate picture of where Green Bay actually falls. That having been said, Green Bay is off to fairly strong start on offense, at least in the most important category, points (10th), as well as passing yards (11th), even despite quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ knee injury. The Packers have been fairly lousy in rushing again, like most years, ranked just 25th in rushing yards, but 16th in rushing yards per attempt. These numbers should also come with the caveat that Green Bay has played two good defenses in the Bears and the Vikings. Interestingly, the Packers have been terrible in the red zone (ranked 30th), which means that a fairly large number of their points have come from outside the red zone.
Green Bay’s defensive numbers are rankings aren’t very good, but they also faced one of the top offenses in the NFC in the Vikings. The Packers are currently ranked 23rd in points, 24th in yards surrendered, 26th in passing yards, and 18th in rushing yards. Statistically, Green Bay’s best statistical feature is red zone defense, in which they are ranked 8th.
Record: 1 – 0 – 1 (1st (tied)) (Away: 0 – 0; NFC: 1 – 0 – 1)
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
10 (points) / 17 (total yards) / 17 (yards per game) / 16 (yards per play) / 11 (passing yards) / 9 (passing yards per att.) / 25 (rushing yards) / 16 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 53 |
| Yards per game | 360.5 |
| Passing | 79 att (9th); 54 comp; 68.4% comp per. (12th); 7.9 Y/A; 554 net yds; 4 TDs; 1 Int |
| Passing leader | Rodgers (72 att, 567 yds (11th), 69.4% comp per., 4 TDs / 0 Int, 111.3 QB rating (5th)) |
| Reception leader | Cobb (172 yds (17th), 16 targets, 13 rec (33rd), 1 TD, 13.2 Y/C); Adams (152 yds, 20 targets (20th), 13 rec (33rd), 2 TDs, 11.7 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 42 att (27th); 167 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 83.5 Y/G (25th); 0 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Williams (31 att, 106 yds (17th), 0 TDs, 3.4 Y/A (35th), long 11 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 8 / 27 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:31 / 11 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 34.6% / 21 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 28.57% / 30 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 23 (points) / 24 (total yards) / 24 (yards per game surrendered) / 21 (yards per play) / 26 (passing yards) / 14 (passing yards per att.) / 18 (rushing yards) / 24 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 52 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 387.0 |
| Opponent’s passing | 83 att (28th); 58 comp; 69.9% comp per. (22nd); 7.2 Y/A; 567 net yds; 4 TD; QB Rating 101.3 (23rd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 45 att (10th); 207 yds; 4.6 Y/A; 1 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 6 / 8 / Clark, Daniels, Perry (1.0) |
| Tackles leader | Brice (12) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 1 / 17 / Clinton-Dix (1) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 45.16% / 27 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 42.86% / 8 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 19.0 Y/R (23), 4 returns, long 25 yards, 0 TD |
| Punt returns | 5.7 Y/R (22), 3 returns, long 17 yards (11), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 30.7 Y/R (28th), 3 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 19.3 Y/R (28th), 3 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punting | 50.1 Y/P (9th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 2 / 2 / 0 / 13
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 15 / 16
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com