Adrian Peterson may be on the verge of something (else) great
September 27, 2018
by Steve Thomas
If we’ve learned one thing about Adrian Peterson this year, it’s that, at least through three games, he looks remarkably like a much younger version of himself. Indeed, Peterson – who yesterday was awarded the FedEx Ground NFL Player of the Week for his performance against the Packers – appears to have lost very little of his hall of fame-level vision, agility, and burst, all of which are mandatory for top-quality running backs. What’s unique about Peterson’s opportunity with the Redskins is that he has the chance to have a very special year for 33 year old running back, which is absolutely ancient by NFL running back standards. Everyone knows that as a general rule the NFL isn’t kind to older players, most particularly running backs. In fact, the list of backs at age 33 or older who’ve had impressive seasons is remarkably short. Peterson is actually on pace for one of the greatest seasons in league history for a back of his age.
After week 3, Peterson has rushed for 236 yards on 56 carries for an average of 4.2 yards per attempt. Projected out to a full 16 games, he is on pace for 1,277 yards on 304 carries. Amazingly enough, only four players have rushed for 1,000 or more yards at age 33 or older:
Name Team Age Year Yardage Carries YPC
John Riggins Redskins 34 1983 1,347 375 3.59
John Riggins Redskins 35 1984 1,239 327 3.79
John Henry Johnson Steelers 33 1962 1,141 251 4.55
John Henry Johnson Steelers 35 1964 1,048 235 4.46
Frank Gore Colts 33 2016 1,025 263 3.90
Franco Harris Steelers 33 1983 1,007 279 3.61
If Peterson can keep up his current pace, it would slot him right under John Riggins’ 1983 season as the second-best season in NFL history, as measured by total yards gained, for a running back aged 33 or more. Whether or not he can actually do that remains to be seen.
To demonstrate just how rare success for older running backs is, there have only been 24 seasons in which a running back aged 31 or older gained at least 1,000 yards, the most recent beyond Gore being Thomas Jones with the Jets (age 32) and Ricky Williams with the Dolphins (age 32) in 2009, and then Fred Taylor (age 31) from the Jaguars in 2007. So, what Peterson is shooting for is highly unusual.
As a matter of fact, there have been only 7 backs in 14 seasons in which a running back age 33 or older has had 200 or more carries: Riggins (1983, 1984), Harris (1983), Gore (2016, 2017), Johnson (1962, 1964), Emmitt Smith (2002, 2004), Otis Anderson (1990), Larry Csonka (1979), and Marcus Allen (1993, 1995, 1996). Peterson is on pace for that accomplishment as well.
Finally, only 5 backs age 33 or older have averaged 4.0 yards per carry or more with at least 150 carries in a season: Johnson (1962, 1963, 1964), Allen (1995 at age 35 and 1996 at age 36), Williams (2010 at age 33), Warrick Dunn with the Buccaneers (2008 at age 33), and Joe Perry with the Baltimore Colts (1961 at age 34).
As you can see, Peterson is aiming for some very exclusive company in multiple categories. In fact, given the rarity of 200 carries, 1,000 yards, and 4.0 yards per carry, if Peterson keeps up this pace I listed above, a legitimate argument could be made that only John Henry Johnson – who played from 1953 through 1966 and was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1987 – will have equaled Peterson’s feat. Adrian has a very long way to go in order to make this a reality, for sure; after all, we’re only in week 3 and any number of things could happen. But now you know what’s at stake.
It’s highly likely that if Peterson actually pulls off this feat, the Redskins will have had a successful season to one extent or the other, because it will mean that the offense has been effective, so I recommend that we all root for Peterson to make history. I’ll leave you with this: if he does run this well, should the Redskins re-sign him for the 2019 season?
What do you think? Leave me a comment below.