Game Preview, Week 6: Panthers at Redskins

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October 11, 2018

by Steve Thomas

Yes, it’s true that the Redskins laid one of their bigger eggs in recent memory this past Monday night, but that’s done and over with now and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.  Given that, I’d like to invite all of you to put aside the negativity and get excited about another Redskins game; after all, your love of the team is why you’re here, right? To have fun watching Redskins football?   Plus, the old saying “on any given Sunday” really does hold true.  The Panthers are on something of a mini-roll and have definitely had Washington’s number over the past several years, but there is a path to victory on Sunday.  It’ll be a tough game, and the Redskins will have to do something that they haven’t been able to do at all, ever, which is to stop Cam Newton, but this game isn’t exactly the ‘85 Bears versus the Weak Sisters of the Blind.  If the Redskins forget about last week and get their act together and execute properly, a victory is possible.  Let’s get to the game preview and give you a little taste of what could happen.

Game time & location:           Sunday, October 14, 2018, 1:00 p.m. ET, Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, Raljon, MD; Gates                                                            open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.

Television:                               CBS

Television announcers:        Kenny Albert, Charles Davis, Pam Oliver

 

DC-area radio:                         The Team 980

Redskins radio network:        Click here

Panthers radio network:       Click here

Satellite radio:                         XM: 233 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 94 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)

 

Redskins roster:                      Click here

Redskins depth chart:            Click here

Panthers roster:                      Click here

Panthers depth chart:            Click here

 

All-time head-to-head record vs Panthers: 7 – 6 (last 5: 0 – 5)

Last meeting:  L, December 19, 2016, 15 – 26

Early odds: Redskins. -1

 

3 KEYS TO THE GAME

Impersonate a real, honest-to-goodness professional football team

The single most important thing the Redskins need to do this week is the most obvious: forget about what happened against the Saints and start to play up to their capabilities.  This means eliminating the glaring mental breakdowns, give a full effort for 60 minutes, and in the case of quarterback Alex Smith, see the field and make throws like we all know he is capable of doing.  Another performance like last Monday is going to equal a slam-dunk loss against a team like Carolina.

Make the Panthers’ run game inefficient

The Panthers are a running team, and what I mean by that is that they really need to run in order to perform effectively.  As I said on the game preview show (Click here to listen), Cam Newton has had a quality year so far, putting up numbers close to his 2015 MVP year, but don’t fall into the trap of believing this team is something it isn’t.  Cam is a very capable thrower, but the identity of the Panthers’ offense is to pound on you, grind out yards, beat you up over and over again.  Carolina is going to get their rushing yards, but the Redskins defense needs to be stout enough to limit their yards per carry.  Making the Panthers inefficient in this way will be a good sign that the Redskins are in the game and headed for a possible victory.  On the other hand, if Christian McCaffery and Newton are averaging over 5 yards per carry, that probably means bad things are happening for Washington.

Diversify the offense

I feel like a broken record for saying this every week, but if the Redskins offense is going to become a consistent, quality unit, it cannot continue to feature a passing game of running back Chris Thompson and a bunch of other random dudes running wind sprints.  Carolina’s defense hasn’t quite put up the numbers so far this year that it has in previous years, but it’s still a physical, tough unit that can do damage with the front 7, particularly with linebacker Thomas Davis coming back this week.  The Redskins need to figure out how to get pass catchers involved, whether it’s the first round pick, Josh Doctson, the Pro Bowl tight end, Jordan Reed, or someone else, it has to be somebody.  If it isn’t anyone, eventually teams are going to stop respecting the pass and start stuffing the box to limit the inside run game and the swing passes to Thompson (see, e.g., Colts, Indianapolis).  Certainly against a hard-hitting team like the Panthers, some semblance of a passing game threat might just be helpful.

3 KEY MATCHUPS

Daron Payne vs. Ryan Kalil

Cam Newton is fond of quarterback keepers – he does it 8-10 times per game.  One absolute, critical key is for the defensive line to not only get penetration and hit the 6’5” Newton and make him uncomfortable, but also to not allow him to become another effective running back for the Panthers.  To me, this effort starts with the rookie Payne against the Panthers’ longtime, All Pro center Ryan Kalil, who mans the middle of the line of scrimmage.  If Payne can perform well against Kalil in both run and pass defense, it will make Newton’s job significantly tougher.  Watch for this battle.

Christian McCaffrey vs. Zach Brown

Zach Brown is one of the fastest linebackers in the league, maybe the fastest.  Brown was given the multiyear contract that he craved this offseason, but thusfar in 2018 his impact has been much more limited than it was last year.  This week against the Panthers, Brown, as the speedy weak side linebacker, needs to be the principal contain against Panthers’ running back Christian McCaffrey.  While McCaffrey is proving that he might be better between the tackles than he showed last year, there’s no doubt that he’s best in space on the edge, and that’s Brown’s domain.  One key to making the Panthers’ run game inefficient is to not allow McCaffrey to turn the corner and get upfield, and preventing that from happening needs to be a major part of Brown’s individual game plan this week.

Jordan Reed vs. Shaq Thompson, Luke Kuechly, and Thomas Davis

Jay Gruden himself has said in previous years that the offense runs through tight end Jordan Reed, but frankly, this year, that just hasn’t happened.  The Panthers have quality linebackers, including the All-World Kuechly, but Reed needs to do whatever he needs to do in order to beat those three, get open, and make himself a consistently viable target.  Reed having a big day will go a long way towards diversifying the offense enough to make it more effective than it has been.  Reed has a tough job this week, but he needs to come through, and Alex Smith needs to do a better job of looking his way.

OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)

LP – limited practice                           FP – full practice                     DNP – did not practice

NIR – not injury related                      Q – questionable                     O – out

D – doubtful

Redskins Panthers
S T. Apke, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O RB C. Artis-Payne, NIR; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
WR J. Crowder, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q DE M. Haynes, NIR; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
WR R. Richardson, Jr., shoulder/knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q LB J. Norris, toe; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O
TE V. Davis, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP DE J. Peppers, rest; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: LP
WR J. Doctson, heel; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q DT K. Short, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
G S. Lauvao, calf; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: D LB A. Smith, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O
RB A. Peterson, ankle/shoulder/knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q TE G Olsen, foot; Wed: LP; Thurs; FP; Fri: FP; game: Q
G B. Scherff, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP C R. Kalil, neck; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
RB C. Thompson, rib/knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q WR D. Byrd, ankle: Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O
LB Z. Vigil, thigh; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; game: Q  
T. Williams, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP  
LB Z. Brown, oblique/knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP  
QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP  
S M. Nicholson, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP  
CB J. Norman, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP  

TEAM STATISTICS

Redskins:

You should not put much stock into the accumulating stats for Redskins’ offense, such as total yards, rushing yards, and passing yards, since so few teams have had their bye week like the Redskins have, but the stats that stick out this week are rushing yards per attempt, ranked 21st (3.9 yards per attempt), third down conversions (ranked 21st), red zone efficiency (16th), and passing touchdowns (4).  The Redskins running game has undergone wild swings – outstanding against the Packers and terrible against the Saints, for instance, which is why the final number has landed on 3.9 yards per carry, but the variance game to game is wide.  Like previous recent years, Washington has not been particularly good in the red zone, which also meets the eye test.  The 4 touchdown stat shows that this passing offense just isn’t scoring many points – even the Panthers have 7 passing touchdowns so far.

On defense, the run defense isn’t at the level of a top unit, but the dramatic improvement over the last few seasons appears to be real (which is a good thing considering that the team has sunk two first round draft picks into run defense): they are surrendering 4.0 yards per carry, which is good but not great (ranked 11th), but much better than last year (last).  This will be particularly important against a running team like Carolina.  The Redskins defense has been terrible on third downs (ranked 27th) and in the red zone (also ranked 27th), and that needs to dramatically improve, soon.

Record: 2 – 2 (1st) (Home: 1 – 1; NFC: 2 – 1)

All-time franchise record: 595 – 583 – 28

Offense

Offensive rankings 29 (points) (trend -2) / 29 (total yards) (trend -17) / 21 (yards per game) (trend -10) / 11 (yards per play) (trend -8) / 24 (passing yards) (trend -10) / 18 (passing yards per att.) (trend -8) / 25 (rushing yards) (trend -18) / 21 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -2)
Points for 83
Yards per game 385.0
Passing

 

 135 att (30th); 89 comp; 65.9% comp per. (14th); 7.7 Y/A; 980 net yds; 4 TD; 2 Int
       Passing leader Smith (76 att, 1042 yds (22nd), 65.9% comp perc., 4 TDs / 2 Int, 92.9 QB rating (19th)
      Receiving leader Thompson (200 yds (74th), 31 targets (52nd), 26 rec (31st), 1 TD, 7.7 Y/C)
Rushing 117 att (20th); 452 yds; 3.9 Y/A; 113.0 Y/G (13th); 5 TD
      Rushing leader Peterson (60 att, 242 yds (21st), 3 TD, 4.0 Y/A (26th), long 17)
Sacks surrendered / rank 9 /7
Ave time of possession / rank 31:49 / 6
3rd down conversion rate / rank 38.5 / 21
TD percentage in red zone / rank 57.14% / 16

Defense

Defensive rankings 5 (points) (trend -3) / 2 (total yards) (trend -1) / 5 (yards per game surrendered) (trend -4) / 7 (yards per play) (trend -4) / 1 (passing yards) (trend even) / 6 (passing yards per att.) (trend -4) / 5 (rushing yards) (trend +5) / 11 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +8)
Points against 87
Yards per game surrendered 320.2
Opponent’s passing 139 att (2nd); 94 comp; 67.6% comp perc. (25th); 6.9 Y/A; 911 net yds; 7 TDs; QB Rating 95.0 (18th)
Opponent’s rushing 92 att (4th); 370 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 5 TD; 92.5 Y/G (6th)
Sacks / rank / Sack leader 9 /24 / Ioannidis (3.0)
Tackles leader Foster (37)
Int / rank / Int leader 3/ 20th / Swearinger (2)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank 44.68% / 27
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank 75.0% / 27

Special Teams

Kick returns 16.9 Y/R (30th), 7 returns, long 26 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns 6.8 Y/R (18th), 4 returns, long 12 yards (30th), 0 TD
Kick return defense 21.8 Y/R (12th), 4 returns, 0 TD
Punt return defense 10.4 Y/R (23rd), 7 returns, 0 TD
Punting 41.9 Y/P (29th)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 5 / 6 / +1 / 10

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 28 / 6

Panthers:

Carolina had its bye week in week 3 as did the Redskins, so you should ignore their accumulating stats as well.  What to note of the Panthers’ offense stats: they are averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a team, which is 3rd in the NFL, with Newton averaging 4.6 yards per carry and McCaffrey at 5.2 (ranked 7th among runners).  The Panthers have been good, but not great in the red zone (ranked 11th).  As I mentioned above, Newton’s passing is much improved so far this year: 65.4% completion percentage (ranked 18th) and a 93.2 quarterback rating (17th).  This means that the Redskins can’t just totally ignore Newton as a passing threat.

On defense, the Panthers are vulnerable on the ground – this team is allowing opponents to run at a clip of 4.6 yards per carry, which is bad (ranked 24th), albeit not 2016 – 2017 Redskins level of bad.  Nevertheless, the Redskins offensive line should be able to open up holes for Adrian Peterson this week. The Panthers have been outstanding on third down defense (ranked 5th in the NFL, which is part of the reason why they have such a high time of possession (32:34 / ranked 3rd).  They’ve been surprisingly horrible in red zone defense (31st, with teams scoring touchdowns 88.9% of the time), so if the Redskins manage to drive all the way inside the 20, chances for a touchdown are good.

Record: 3 – 1 (1st) (Away: 0 – 1; NFC: 2 – 1)

All-time franchise record: 186 – 185 – 1

Offense

Offensive rankings

 

 22 (points) / 27 (total yards) / 19 (yards per game) / 16 (yards per play) / 30 (passing yards) / 24 (passing yards per att.) / 7 (rushing yards) / 3 (rushing yards per att.)
Points for 104
Yards per game 364.8
Passing 130 att (32nd); 85 comp; 65.4% comp per. (16th); 6.8 Y/A; 843 net yds; 7 TDs; 3 Int
      Passing leader Newton (130 att, 883 yds (27th), 65.4% comp per., 7 TDs / 3 Int, 93.2 QB rating (17th))
      Reception leader Funchess (238 yds (60th), 28 targets (64th), 18 rec (72nd), 1 TD, 13.2 Y/C)
Rushing 122 att (18th); 616 yds; 5.0 Y/A; 154.0 Y/G (1st); 4 TDs
      Rushing leader McCaffrey (63 att, 329 yds (10th), 0 TDs, 5.2 Y/A (7th), long 45 yds)
Sacks surrendered / rank 56 / 32
Ave time of possession / rank 32:34 / 3
3rd down conversion rate / rank 38.8% / 20
TD percentage in red zone / rank 61.54% / 11

Defense

Defensive rankings 6 (points) / 4 (total yards) / 20 (yards per game surrendered) / 29 (yards per play) / 8 (passing yards) / 27 (passing yards per att.) / 6 (rushing yards) / 24 (rushing yards per att.)
Points against 91
Yards per game surrendered 375.5
Opponent’s passing 140 att (3rd); 94 comp; 67.1% comp per. (21st); 8.4 Y/A; 1122 net yds; 7 TD; QB Rating 88.9 (12th)
Opponent’s rushing 83 att (2nd); 380 yds; 4.6 Y/A; 4 TD
Sacks / rank / Sack leader 9 / 24 / Addison (2.5)
Tackles leader Kuechly (29)
Int / rank / Int leader 7 / 5th / Jackson (3)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank 30.75% / 5
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank 88.89% / 31

Special Teams

Kick returns 26.0 Y/R (7th), 1 returns, long 26 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns 9.0 Y/R (13th), 8 returns, long 30 yards (13th), 0 TDs
Kick return defense 30.6 Y/R (30th), 5 returns, 0 TDs
Punt return defense 5.7 Y/R (7th), 7 returns, 0 TD
Punting 46.8 Y/P (12th)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 4 / 9 / +5 / 4

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 23 / 1

 

* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com