Game Preview, Week 7: Cowboys at Redskins
October 19, 2018
by Steve Thomas
It’s Dallas week!!!! A bit bittersweet this year, with the death of longtime beat reporter and friend of our show Rich Tandler still fresh on the minds of Redskins fans everywhere, but from a football perspective it doesn’t get any bigger than this. With a win, the Redskins have a rare chance to both solidify an early hold on the NFC East and break the tide of recent history by beating a Cowboys team for the first time in three seasons. Yes, this game is set up to be the most important contest of the year thusfar for Washington, and it would be great if they don’t blow it. Please, please, please, Redskins, don’t come out flat, uninspired, and lazy. Let’s look instead like the motivated team from last week against the Carolina Panthers. It’s possible that nowdays the fans care more about the Redskins-Cowboys rivalry than the players do, but even putting that aside, this is a critical contest. The Redskins have a path to victory here, I promise. Let’s hope the team gets it done. Our game preview starts below.
Game time & location: Sunday, October 21, 2018, 4:25 p.m. ET, Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, Raljon, MD; Gates open 2:25 p.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 11:25 a.m.; all other parking lots 12:25 p.m.
Television: CBS
Television announcers: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Cowboys radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 227 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 82 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Cowboys roster: Click here
Cowboys depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Cowboys: 42 – 70 – 2 (last 10: 2 – 8; streak: lost 4)
Last meeting: L, November 30, 2017, 14 – 38
Early odds: Redskins, -1.5
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Zeke Elliott is the key to everything and should be job #1
Ezekiel Elliott is the heart and soul of the Dallas offense, and he is their biggest threat. This is a running offense that goes through Elliott first and foremost. Doing well against this team means limiting Elliott’s effectiveness. There’s no doubt whatsoever that he’s going to get his carries; the Redskins’ goal needs to be to keep him from averaging 5 yards per carry and thereby successfully moving the offense up and down the field. Making anyone else but Elliott beat them needs to be the first priority on Sunday. This is the single biggest key to a Redskins victory.
Keep Dak Prescott in the pocket
If Elliott is Dallas’ biggest weapon, then Dak Prescott is #2 on the list, but not for the obvious reasons. Prescott’s quarterbacking ability is mediocre by NFL standards, but he is a talented runner, and in fact has 203 rushing yards on just 34 attempts for an average of 6.0 yards per attempt, and 1 rushing touchdown. Prescott’s rushing is a key part of his game. The Redskins game plan needs to make keeping Prescott in the pocket as much as possible a priority. Preventing him from escaping for big rushing yardage, and instead forcing Prescott to run the offense with just his arm, without the benefit of significant scrambling, will limit what the Cowboys do. If slowing down Elliott is job #1, then job #2 is Prescott. Keep an eye out on Prescott’s rushing yardage as the game goes on.
Focus on the short passing game
The Cowboys have been remarkably stingy against opposing running backs. In six games this season, only Chris Carson of the Seahawks has reached the 100 yard mark, and it took him 32 carries to earn his 102 yards. Unless the Redskins do drastically better than the teams that have preceded them, this isn’t a game to expect Adrian Peterson to rush for 120 yards. To go along with that, Dallas has also put significant pressure on opposing quarterbacks, 18 sacks on the year (as compared to 10 by the Redskins). However, Dallas also has allowed quarterbacks to find success and has allowed a 70% completion percentage and an opposing quarterback rating of 99.5. Therefore, quick, short passing will be a key to a productive Redskins offense. Fortunately, Jay Gruden is typically good at this type of thing, so watch for a higher dose than normal of Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson, if he’s available.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
With the departure of Jason Witten to retirement and Dez Bryant to his couch, Cole Beasley is now Dallas’ biggest receiving threat. Beasley isn’t Jarvis Landry, but he’s a quality slot receiver who can cause problems if not accounted for. Moreau, who is the Redskins’ principal slot corner, therefore has a huge job ahead of him. I expect the Redskins to bring him help over the top from the safeties and not just leave Moreau isolated for 60 minutes. In terms of defense, think #1 Elliott, #2 Prescott, #3 Beasley.
Sean Lee vs the Redskins offensive line
Sean Lee has a hamstring problem and has been out since week 3, but is scheduled to return this week. Lee’s presence, when he’s not hurt (which he is, alot), makes a direct, immediate impact on the Cowboys defense and their win-loss record. The Redskins need to focus on limiting Lee’s impact. That’s not necessarily a job for just one offensive lineman – this is a group effort that will require proper diagnosis of blocking schemes and solid play from all five starters. The effect of a healthy Lee on the Cowboy defense is real and should not be underestimated.
Demarcus Lawrence vs Trent Williams and Morgan Moses
This matchup is a handful, and it’s critically important. Demarcus Lawrence is one of the most dangerous edge rushers in the NFL. Given the strength of Dallas’ run defense, the Redskins will need to account for Lawrence at all times and keep him from terrorizing Alex Smith long enough for Smith to progress through his reads. Dallas isn’t just going to line Lawrence up on one side or the other all day long, so I anticipate that both Trent Williams and Morgan Moses will have their turn at this matchup. Both need to have quality outings, as Lawrence has the ability to significantly alter and dampen Washington’s ability to run a successful offense. Watch for this matchup and how much of an impact Lawrence makes as the game progresses.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Thursday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Cowboys |
| S T. Apke, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: D | WR T. Austin, groin; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| WR J. Crowder, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri:DNP; game: O | LB J. Thomas, foot; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| CB D. Johnson, forearm; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | CB C. Awuzie, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| WR P. Richardson Jr., shoulder/knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: D | DE R. Gregory, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| G S. Lauvao, calf; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | OL D. Irving, NIR; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| RB A. Peterson, ankle/shoulder; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | DE D. Lawrence, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| G B. Scherff, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | LB S. Lee, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| CB Q. Dunbar, shin; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: LP; game: Q | WR B. Butler, groin; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| LB R. Kerrigan, chest; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | DE T. Charlotn, thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| RB C. Thompson, rib/knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | DT M. Collins, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| LB Z. Brown, oblique/shin; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | T T. Smith, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| WR J. Doctson, heel; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | WR D. Thompson, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| T T. Williams, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
For the third week in a row, I urge you to ignore the rankings for the accumulating stats such as yardage; the Redskins’ bye week means that they’ve played one fewer game than all but a handful of teams. Regardless, the offensive stats continue to show what we all know: this is a running team, but an inconsistent enough one that as a team, they are averaging only 4.0 yards per carry, which is ranked 23rd, and 116.8 yards per game, which is 12th. I didn’t bother to calculate the variance for those numbers, because even I’m not that crazy, but there would be a massive game by game variance, which would confirm this team has been hot and cold on the ground. Not earthshattering. On the passing side, pay attention to yards per passing attempt: 7.0, which is 23rd, with a running back, Chris Thompson, who missed a game, and a tight end, Jordan Reed. This supports the idea that the Redskins are a dink and dunk team and no one that is wide open and receiver based. Again, not a stunning conclusion, but the data serves to confirm what is plainly obvious.
On the defensive side, Washington has done well in limiting opponents’ rushing yards, to the tune of just 90.2 yards per game, which is 6th in the NFL, but less so as measured by yards per carry, at which they are ranked 12th at 4.1 yards per carry. The Dallas offense is a big-time rush heavy team, most definitely top 3 in the NFL, so the Redskins will have to outperform their season rankings in order to minimize the strongest part of Dallas’ offense. The Redskins pass defense has below average rankings, particularly completion percentage (26th) and quarterback rating (21st), but again, the run game is what’s important this week.
Record: 3 – 2 (1st) (Home: 2 – 1; NFC: 3 – 1; NFC East: 0 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 596 – 583 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 29 (points) (trend even) / 29 (total yards) (trend even) / 25 (yards per game) (trend -4) / 26 (yards per play) (trend -15) / 27 (passing yards) (trend -3) / 23 (passing yards per att.) (trend -5) / 21 (rushing yards) (trend +4) / 23 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -2) |
| Points for | 106 |
| Yards per game | 344.0 |
| Passing
|
171 att (25th); 110 comp; 64.3% comp per. (18th); 7.0 Y/A; 1136 net yds; 6 TD; 2 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (171 att, 1205 yds (23rd), 64.3% comp perc., 6 TDs / 2 Int, 91.9 QB rating (18th) |
| Receiving leader | Thompson (200 yds, 31 targets (69th), 26 rec (47th), 1 TD, 7.7 Y/C); Reed (225 yds (82nd), 31 tgts, 20 rec, 1 TD, 11.3) |
| Rushing | 145 att (16th); 584 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 116.8 Y/G (12th); 5 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (77 att, 339 yds (15th), 3 TD, 4.4 Y/A (21st), long 41) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 12 / 12 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 33:32 / 3 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 39.7 / 17 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 56.25% / 13 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 4 (points) (trend +1) / 2 (total yards) (trend even) / 5 (yards per game surrendered) (trend even) / 9 (yards per play) (trend -2) / 4 (passing yards) (trend -3) / 6 (passing yards per att.) (trend even) / 4 (rushing yards) (trend +1) / 12 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -1) |
| Points against | 104 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 326.2 |
| Opponent’s passing | 179 att (4th); 121 comp; 67.6% comp perc. (26th); 6.9 Y/A; 1180 net yds; 9 TDs; QB Rating 94.6 (21st) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 110 att (2nd); 451 yds; 4.1 Y/A; 5 TD; 90.2 Y/G (6th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 10 /26 / Ioannidis (3.0) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (37) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 4/ 20 / Swearinger (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 42.86% / 23 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 66.67% / 24 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 15.8 Y/R (31st), 9 returns, long 26 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 7.4 Y/R (18th), 5 returns, long 12 yards (31st), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 20.7 Y/R (7th), 6 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 9.1 Y/R (20th), 8 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 41.8 Y/P (29th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 5 / 9 / +4 / 4
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 33 / 7
Cowboys:
The Dallas offense begins and ends with the run game: they are 2nd in both rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt, and running back Ezekiel Elliott is 2nd in the NFL in total rushing yards and is averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. Furthermore, Dallas has called 172 rushing plays, which is 7th in the league. Quarterback Dak Prescott has a 62.0% completion percentage, which in today’s NFL is below average (24th). However, Prescott has also contributed another 203 yards on the ground. Dallas’ leading receiver, Cole Beasley, has just 294 yards (ranked 52nd) and just 26 receptions (47th). Stop the run and you stop the Cowboys.
Defensively, the Dallas Cowboys are for real, statistically speaking. This unit doesn’t have many areas to exploit – they are 3rd in points surrendered, 9th in yardage, 4th in yards per play, and 2nd in rushing yards per attempt. They’ve also been outstanding the red zone (41.18%, ranked 4th). If the Cowboys defense has a weakness, it’s in the underneath passing game. They have done poorly in completion percentage (70.4%, ranked 28th), but middle of the pack in passing yards per attempt (15th).
Record: 3 – 3 (2nd, tied) (Away: 0 – 3; NFC: 2 – 2; NFC East: 1 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 505 – 377 – 6
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
23 (points) / 25 (total yards) / 29 (yards per game) / 24 (yards per play) / 29 (passing yards) / 26 (passing yards per att.) / 2 (rushing yards) / 2 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 123 |
| Yards per game | 319.5 |
| Passing | 171 att (25th); 106 comp; 62.0% comp per. (24th); 6.7 Y/A; 1032 net yds; 7 TDs; 4 Int |
| Passing leader | Prescott (171 att, 1144 yds (26th), 62.0% comp per., 7 TDs / 4 Int, 85.5 QB rating (26th)) |
| Reception leader | Beasley (294 yds (52nd), 35 targets (56th), 26 rec (47th), 2 TD, 11.3 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 172 att (7th); 885 yds; 5.1 Y/A; 147.5 Y/G (2nd); 4 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Elliott (117 att, 586 yds (2nd), 3 TDs, 5.0 Y/A (8th), long 41 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 19 / 24 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:04 / 15 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 31.2% / 30 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.94% / 12 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 3 (points) / 9 (total yards) / 4 (yards per game surrendered) / 4 (yards per play) / 11 (passing yards) / 15 (passing yards per att.) / 8 (rushing yards) / 2 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 103 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 315.2 |
| Opponent’s passing | 196 att (9th); 138 comp; 70.4% comp per. (28th); 7.5 Y/A; 1347 net yds; 7 TD; QB Rating 99.5 (24th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 157 att (22nd); 544 yds; 3.5 Y/A; 4 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 18 / 5 / Lawrence (5.5) |
| Tackles leader | Smith, Vander Esch (50) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 2 / 28 / Heath, Woods (1) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 41.46% / 20 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 41.18% / 4 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 24.5 Y/R (10th), 4 returns, long 35 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.8 Y/R (23rd), 11 returns, long 22 yards (17th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 25.1 Y/R (23rd), 7 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 9.1 Y/R (20th), 14 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 45.1 Y/P (17th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 6 / 6 / 0 / 16
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 35 / 8
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com