Game Preview, Week 9: Falcons at Redskins
November 2, 2018
by Steve Thomas
Are you as shocked as I am that the Redskins are on a three game winning streak? Who would’ve thought that this would happen at the beginning of the year? Okay, probably a few of you, but not me. This is what happens when you have an effective running game and a powerful defense. Those two qualities will get you far in the NFL. This week’s contest, though, presents a challenge unlike anything else Washington has faced this year with the possible exception of the Saints. You see, the Atlanta Falcons are an elite passing team with a seemingly unlimited supply of weapons to which Matt Ryan can toss the rock. The Falcons have scored a ton of points in almost every game and present a serious challenge for the Redskins, even with their newfound addition of free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Make no mistake, the Falcons are no joke in the air, and the Redskins secondary is going to have to play their best game of the year in order to win. 2018 Falcons games are always in danger of becoming shootouts because as good as the passing game has been, the opposite is true of their defense. Alex Smith and company should have no excuses for not putting up big numbers this Sunday. A win is possible, folks, despite Atlanta’s daunting roster. Our game preview starts below.
Game time & location: Sunday, November 4, 2018, 1:00 p.m. ET, Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, Raljon, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis, Pam Oliver
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Falcons radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 226 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 81 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Falcons roster: Click here
Falcons depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Falcons: 14 – 9 – 1 (last 10: 4 – 6; streak: 0 – 5)
Last meeting: L, October 11, 2015, 19 – 25
Early odds: Redskins, -1.5
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Limit the Falcons big plays
It’s no secret that the Falcons have a significant number of weapons, the most dangerous of which being star receiver Julio Jones, who already has 812 yards in just 7 games. Matt Ryan has 19 completed passes over 25 yards thusfar this season, which is tied for 4th-most in the NFL. Washington’s offense is not geared to compete with a big-play offense in a shootout. One key to this game is for the highly-ranked Redskins defense to keep the Falcons in check and not allow cheap and easy big chunks of yardage.
Keep the Falcons offense off the field
The Redskins are a grind it out offense that chews up massive amounts of clock – they are second in the NFL in average time of possession. The best way to avoid a shootout with a team like Atlanta is to keep their offense off the field via the type of long, ball control drives the 2018 Redskins have become known for. There’s most likely no way to avoid the Falcons putting up points, but limiting the damage and controlling the tempo will be key. Washington needs to force Atlanta to play a Redskins-type of game, not the other way around.
Alex Smith must be sharper
Yes, the Redskins need to control the tempo this week in order to avoid a shootout, but this can’t be a game that Washington can reasonably expect to win by scoring 20 points or less in the first half and none in the second half. They do need to score points at a rate that they haven’t been able to do yet in 2018, and frankly, that means Alex Smith needs to be sharper on his deep balls. Driving the tempo and using Adrian Peterson maximum affect doesn’t mean that this game can turn into 1968-style football. Smith will need to do more downfield than he has done so far this season in order to drive the Redskins to a win.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Josh Norman vs Julio Jones
This matchup isn’t that complicated. Julio is Atlanta’s biggest threat, and Josh Norman is the Redskins’ #1 corner. Julio is absolutely going to get his yardage on Sunday, because he always does, but Norman will play perhaps the most important role on the team on Sunday. Norman needs to travel with Julio, and he needs to limit Jones’ impact on the game to the maximum extent possible. This is the kind of matchup that Josh was brought to Washington to face. He’s the team’s highly-paid top corner andhe needs to come through. The defensive coaching staff needs to help him do it by allowing him to travel and providing safety help over the top.
Takkarist McKinley vs Trent Williams and Morgan Moses
No, the Falcons’ defense isn’t very good and hasn’t been successful, but Takkarist McKinley has 6 sacks and the ability to make the lives of opposing quarterbacks miserable. Trent has an apparently mangled thumb, so if he plays, he needs to have a good day and keep Alex Smith upright. This matchup is the most important one of the day in the trenches. McKinley will very likely also flip sides and face Morgan Moses at times, so the same goes for Morgan – McKinley cannot be allowed to dominate the line of scrimmage. If Trent can’t go on Sunday, substitute Ty Nsekhe into this point, because he’ll take up the mantle and be tasked with blocking McKinley. Keep a close eye out on this matchup as the game progresses.
Adrian Peterson vs. the Falcons linebackers
As is the case seemingly every week, the Redskins are going to rely on Peterson to provide a significant amount of the team’s offense, particularly against a weak defense like Atlanta’s. For a back like Adrian and an offensive line that will most likely open up holes into the second level, this means that he needs to use his elite vision and agility to defeat the Atlanta’s linebackers for significant yardage. In other words, Peterson needs to continue to do what he’s been doing all year. This isn’t exactly an earth-shattering revelation, but it is important. Watch for how the Falcons linebackers handle Peterson in the gaps, because it’s pretty likely that this game won’t go well for the home team if Adrian is continually stopped.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Thursday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Falcons |
| WR J. Crowder, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | CB R. Alford, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| G S. Lauvao, calf; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | K M. Bryant, right hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| RB A. Peterson, shoulder; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | CB J. Bethel, back; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP |
| WR P. Richardson, Jr., shoulder/knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | C A. Mack, back; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| RB C. Thompson, rib; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | WR M. Sanu, hip; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP |
| S M. Nicholson, neck/hip; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | DT D. Senat, neck/shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: LP |
| T T. Williams, thumb/shoulder; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | LS J. Harris, hand; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: LP |
| LB R. Anderson, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| RB K. Bibbs, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| CB Q. Dunbar, shin; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| TE J. Reed, neck; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| G B. Scherff, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| LB Z. Brown, oblique; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR M. Harris, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| CB D. Johnson, forearm; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| T M. Moses, elbow; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
On offense, from a statistical standpoint, the Redskins have been rolling along in much the same fashion as they’ve been doing for several weeks: run heavy (210/228 run/pass balance, which is fairly slanted for a modern-day NFL team). Peterson’s heroics on the ground have started to drag the team rushing numbers up despite the bye week (15th in yards per attempt). As you already know, the Redskins aren’t passing for many yards (27th including teams that haven’t had their bye) and aren’t passing deep much (24th in passing yards per attempt). The Redskins will definitely have a chance to open up their passing offense this week against a weak Atlanta defense.
Defensively, the Redskins continue to be outstanding against the run (6th in rushing yards per attempt) and don’t get run on very much with only 146 runs against, which is the lowest in the NFL even among those teams that have had their bye week already. Atlanta isn’t much of a rushing team, so expect the rushing defense numbers to be at or near the top against next week. The Redskins have been good but not quite as successful against passing attacks, their defensive numbers having been hurt by both the Saints game and Eli Manning this past week. Opposing quarterbacks have an average quarterback rating of 90.9, which is 12th, and have allowed a 66.3% completion percentage (22nd in the NFL). Atlanta, of course, has an elite passing offense, so the Redskins – who bolstered their secondary this week with the addition of free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – will most likely surrender significant passing yardage this week even in the case of a victory.
Record: 5 – 2 (1st) (Home: 3 – 1; NFC: 5 – 1)
All-time franchise record: 598 – 583 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 26 (points) (trend +1) / 27 (total yards) (trend +1) / 25 (yards per game) (trend -1) / 25 (yards per play) (trend +2) / 27 (passing yards) (trend even) / 24 (passing yards per att.) (trend -4) / 14 (rushing yards) (trend +6) /15 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +6) |
| Points for | 146 |
| Yards per game | 340.7 |
| Passing
|
228 att (28th); 144 comp; 63.2% comp per. (23rd); 6.8 Y/A; 1489 net yds; 8 TD; 2 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (228 att, 1561 yds (23rd), 63.2% comp perc (25th), 8 TDs / 2 Int, 91.3 QB rating (22nd) |
| Receiving leader | Reed (306 yds (74th), 47 tgts (48th), 29 rec, 1 TD, 10.6) |
| Rushing | 210 att (9th); 896 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 128.0 Y/G (8th); 6 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (127 att (4th), 587 yds (5th), 4 TD, 4.6 Y/A (17th), long 64) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 13 / 8 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 32:27/ 2 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 37.9 / 22 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 47.62% / 25 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 4 (points) (trend -1) / 2 (total yards) (trend -1) / 4 (yards per game surrendered) (trend +1) / 6 (yards per play) (trend +1) / 8 (passing yards) (trend -2) / 4 (passing yards per att.) (trend +1) / 2 (rushing yards) (trend even) / 6 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +1) |
| Points against | 134 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 322.4 |
| Opponent’s passing | 261 att (13th); 173 comp; 66.3% comp perc. (22nd); 7.0 Y/A; 1696 net yds; 11 TDs; QB Rating 90.9 (12th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 146 att (1st); 561 yds; 3.8 Y/A; 6 TD; 80.1 Y/G (2nd) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 21 / 10 / Ioannidis (5.5) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (64) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 6 / 16 / Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 36.9% / 9 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 60.0% / 18 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 16.2 Y/R (31st), 10 returns, long 26 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.7 Y/R (22nd), 6 returns, long 12 yards (32nd), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 22.5 Y/R (13th), 8 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 6.9 Y/R (9th), 15 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 42.2 Y/P (29th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 6 / 13 / +7 / 3
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 46 / 10
Falcons:
The Falcons offense is easy to describe: elite passing game, bad rushing game. Atlanta has had its bye week already, so don’t let the accumulating stats like total yardage, passing yardage, and points fool you. This is a dangerous offense that is converting 50% of its third downs (2nd in the league) and scores touchdowns on 69.5% of their red zone trips (6th). Quarterback Matt Ryan is having an outstanding season (114.2 quarterback rating, which is 5th in the NFL, and 15 touchdowns already). The number and depth of receiving weapons on this team is stunning, but Julio Jones leads the way with 812 yards (2nd in the NFL), 81 targets (6th), and 53 receptions (8th). Their run game just isn’t effective this year without Devonta Freeman, but that hasn’t slowed this team down. This is Washington’s toughest aerial matchup of the season thusfar, with apologies to the Saints.
The Falcons are as bad defensively as they are successful offensively. There’s really nothing they do well at all: Atlanta gives up 4.8 yards per carry on the ground, allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.5% of their passes and earn an average quarterback rating of 105.9. They have allowed opponents to convert third downs at a 54.12% rate (31st) and are ranked 29th in red zone defense. In other words, the Falcons allow opposing quarterbacks to look like Matt Ryan and opposing running backs to look like Adrian Peterson. There is no excuse for the Redskins to not put up their best overall offensive numbers of the year this week.
Record: 3 – 4 (4th; tied) (Away: 0 – 2; NFC: 3 – 2)
All-time franchise record: 354 – 447 – 6
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
15 (points) / 16 (total yards) / 7 (yards per game) / 5 (yards per play) / 7 (passing yards) / 5 (passing yards per att.) / 31 (rushing yards) / 29 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 192 |
| Yards per game | 401.1 |
| Passing | 270 att (21st); 192 comp; 71.1% comp per. (3rd); 8.7 Y/A; 2224 net yds; 15 TDs; 2 Int |
| Passing leader | Ryan (263 att, 2335 yds (5th), 71.1% comp per., 15 TDs / 2 Int, 114.2 QB rating (5th)) |
| Reception leader | Jones (812 yds (2nd), 81 targets (6th), 53 rec (8th), 0 TD, 15.3 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 157 att (30th); 583 yds; 3.7 Y/A; 83.3 Y/G (30th); 7 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Coleman (82 att (25th), 310 yds (31st), 2 TDs, 3.8 Y/A (33rd), long 36 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 20 / 17 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:08 / 17 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 50.0% / 2 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 69.5% / 6 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 26 (points) / 23 (total yards) / 30 (yards per game surrendered) / 29 (yards per play) / 26 (passing yards) / 26 (passing yards per att.) / 15 (rushing yards) / 26 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 212 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 419.4 |
| Opponent’s passing | 278 att (21st); 196 comp; 70.5% comp per. (30th); 8.1 Y/A; 2147 net yds; 17 TD; QB Rating 105.9 (28th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 164 att (8th); 789 yds; 4.8 Y/A; 9 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 14 / 28 / McKinley (6.0) |
| Tackles leader | Riley (39) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 6 / 16 / Kazee (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 54.12% / 31 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 71.88% / 29 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 23.4 Y/R (14th), 13 returns, long 53 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 4.8 Y/R (30th), 9 returns, long 14 yards (31st), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 22.5 Y/R (13th), 16 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 7.9 Y/R (16th), 14 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 41.1 Y/P (32nd) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 4 / 7 / +3 / 10
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 49 / 13
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com, http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/