Game Preview, Week 11: Texans at Redskins
November 16, 2018
by Steve Thomas
This week’s contest is a pretty big game considering this is an interconference matchup. The Houston Texans march into the nation’s capitol as the leaders of the AFC South, making this a battle of first place teams and one of the NFL’s premiere games of the week. Think back and try and remember how long its been since the Redskins have been involved in a game like this – it might have been the 2012 NFC East title-deciding game against the Cowboys, which goes to show how long its been since the Redskins have been winners. This might not be a Super Bowl preview, but it definitely features two of the more successful teams of the season thusfar. And make no mistake: the Redskins have something to prove after the controversial comments made by Josh Norman and others this week regarding the team’s performance in front of the home crowd. Plus, the team certainly wants to maintain its two game lead over the Eagles in the NFC East via a victory. All of these things are good problems to have, of course, and the Redskins will need to be at the top of their game to beat the Texans, who are a quality team that performs well in most if not all phases of the game. How can a home team victory happen? Read on for our preview.
Game time & location: Sunday, November 18, 2018, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Landover, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.
Television: CBS
Television announcers: Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Bruce Arians, Melanie Collins
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Texans radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 227 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 82 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Texans roster: Click here
Texans depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Texans: 2 – 2
Last meeting: L, September 7, 2014, 6 – 17
Early odds: Texans, -3
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
The rebuilt offensive line needs another good day
The Houston Texans’ front seven is no joke, featuring 3x defensive player of the year J.J. Watt, a former #1 overall draft pick, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, and a pair of linebackers in Whitney Mercilus and Benardrick McKinney who are also quality players. The Redskins may have fallen into a guard with starting potential in Jonathan Cooper last week, but the fact remains that this group is vulnerable, particularly against such a talented group as the Texans feature. The offensive line, once again, needs to keep Alex Smith upright and open up some running lanes against one of the best defensive fronts they’ll face all year. This is a critical battle this week and will be a good indicator of how well this game goes for Washington.
The Redskins passing game needs to open up
The Houston Texans feature one of the stingiest run defenses in the league, surrendering only 3.6 yards per carry, which is tied for best in the NFL. While I do think it’s possible to gain yardage on the ground against Houston, this will ultimately be another game in which the Redskins will need to feature their aerial attack. If the Texans defense has a soft spot, it’s in the secondary, and the Redskins receiver corps needs to figure out how to exploit it. Washington, generally, needs to learn how to win without Adrian Peterson driving the offense. They did this to an extent against Tampa Bay last week, but this is even more important this week with an infinitely more capable Houston defense.
The stout run defense of earlier this year needs to return
The Redskins’ run defense has in recent weeks fallen off of the outstanding precedent it set early in the year. The Falcons and the Buccaneers both gained yardage at a good pace despite somewhat mediocre talent. Houston fits into that boat as well, with Lamar Miller generally doing a passing but not spectacular job overall. He has, however, had flashes of high quality play, and the Redskins can ill-afford to let the Texans establish their run game given the talent they have at the wide receiver position. The Redskins front seven, specifically Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and inside linebacker Mason Foster, all need to step up and lock down the Texans running game, including quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is a mobile guy and good runner in his own right.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
JJ Watt vs the entire Redskins offensive line
JJ Watt is every bit the monster that people think he is. All of his honors and awards are well deserved, and he’s probably the biggest defensive line threat the Redskins will face all year. Watt is most often at the left end position, meaning that right tackle Morgan Moses will probably be matched up against Watt more than the others on the line, but the Texans routinely move Watt around to exploit matchups and keep offenses guessing. You can expect to see him at the other end spot, at nose tackle, and at both interior spots when Houston is in a 4 – 3 configuration. Seeing Tony Bergstrom or for that matter any of the Redskins interior lineman matched up against Watt one-on-one isn’t something anyone should be rooting for, so expect plenty of double teams and chipping from the running backs. If JJ Watt is allowed to run wild in the backfield, it could be a long day for the Redskins.
Deandre Hopkins vs Josh Norman
Hopkins is by any measure one of the top 5 receivers in the NFL. He’s not overly fast, but he’s a very technically sound player who understands how to set up defensive backs. He’s an elite performer, and if the last two weeks are any guide, Josh Norman is probably going to be tasked as his principal defender. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix will no doubt serve as safety help over the top. It would be foolish to leave this as a one on one battle, but considering that the Texans also have Demaryius Thomas on the other side, Norman will be expected to handle this matchup. This is a tall order for any corner, but allowing Hopkins to run wild in the secondary would be a significant boost for Houston’s chances. The Norman-Hopkins battle will go a long way towards determining which team comes out on top.
Josh Doctson versus Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson
The Redskins need offense this week, in particular in the air. The Texans feature one of the best run defenses in the league, but they are a bit less capable against the pass. Josh Doctson is still trying to prove himself and live up to his billing as a first round draft pick. More importantly, he’s the Redskins #1 receiver. The team will need Doctson to produce a few big plays against Houston, which is something that has for the most part been noticeably absent for the Redskins essentially all year long. Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are decent corners, but by no means one of the tops duos in the league. If Doctson is ever going to get to the heights that the team expected when they drafted him, it’s games and matchups like this that he needs to win. If Doctson can finally have a big game, the Redskins offense might finally be able to break out.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Saturday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Texans |
| WR J. Crowder, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | CB A. Colvin, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| CB Q. Dunbar, shin; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q | WR K. Coutee, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| K D. Hopkins, right groin; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q | ILB Z. Cunningham, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O |
| S M. Nicholson, illness; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; game: Q | OLB D. Ejiofor, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O |
| RB C. Thompson, rib; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | S. A. Hal, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP |
| T T. Williams, thumb; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q | WR D. Hopkins, foot; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP |
| T M. Moses, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | CB J. Joseph, ankle/knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| T T. Nsekhe, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | ILB B. Peters, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| DL D. Payne, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | LB W. Mercilus, ankle; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP |
| RB S. Perine, knee/calf; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: O | |
| RB A. Peterson, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| LB R. Anderson, shoulder; Wed: not listed; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| RB K. Bibbs, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| TE V. Davis, rubs; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
From a statistical perspective, the Redskins running game continues to come back down to earth a bit, now averaging 4.4 yards per carry, which is ranked 13th in the league, although Adrian Peterson individually is still near the top of the leaderboard in both carries (5th) and total rushing yardage (also 5th). There’s just not much more that I can write about Washington’s passing game: it isn’t dynamic and lacks playmakers, and the stats reflect this reality. The Redskins are 26th in passing yards, but are also ranked just 26th in passing yards per attempt, which is the best measure we have of downfield passing. The fact that the team’s leading receiver is a tight end with just 391 yards in week 11 is another sign of just how anemic Washington’s aerial attack has been. The statistical saving grace for this offense is the outstanding turnover ratio, which is +11 and ranked 3rd in the league. Quarterback Alex Smith has only thrown three interceptions, which is behind only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees amongst quarterbacks who have started at least 8 games this season.
The Redskins defensive metrics have taken a massive nosedive in the passing numbers thanks to the team having given up nearly 1,000 passing yards in the past two games. The rushing stats have hovered roughly in the same range, with the team surrendering 4.2 yards per carry, ranked 12th. The Redskins still have given up very few rushing yards (5th fewest), but this is more a function of how few carries opponents have attempted more than anything else (2nd fewest). Washington is 5th in points and 7th in the red zone, both quality numbers, but they’ve been atrocious on third down (28th).
Record: 6 – 3 (1st) (Home: 3 – 2; AFC: 0 – 1)
All-time franchise record: 599 – 584 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 27 (points) (trend -2) / 27 (total yards) (trend even) / 26 (yards per game) (trend even) / 26 (yards per play) (trend -1) / 26 (passing yards) (trend +1) / 26 (passing yards per att.) (trend -1) / 11 (rushing yards) (trend +3) /13 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +1) |
| Points for | 176 |
| Yards per game | 337.4 |
| Passing
|
301 att (24th); 193 comp; 64.1% comp per. (21st); 6.8 Y/A; 1946 net yds; 10 TD; 3 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (301 att, 2045 yds (23rd), 64.1% comp perc (22nd), 10 TDs / 3 Int, 90.7 QB rating (22nd) |
| Receiving leader | Reed (391 yds (72nd), 59 tgts (40th), 37 rec (49th), 1 TD, 10.6 YPC) |
| Rushing | 250 att (12th); 1091 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 121.2 Y/G (10th); 7 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (155 att (5th), 672 yds (5th), 4 TD, 4.3 Y/A (26th), long 64) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 19 / 10 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 31:27/ 3 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 38.02 / 21 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.00% / 23 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 5 (points) (trend +3) / 15 (total yards) (trend -8) / 17 (yards per game surrendered) (trend -7) / 17 (yards per play) (trend -4) / 24 (passing yards) (trend -10) / 17 (passing yards per att.) (trend -5) / 5 (rushing yards) (trend -1) / 12 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +1) |
| Points against | 175 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 361.0 |
| Opponent’s passing | 340 att (23rd); 228 comp; 67.1% comp perc. (24th); 7.3 Y/A; 2431 net yds; 15 TDs; QB Rating 93.3 (19th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 194 att (2nd); 818 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 7 TD; 90.9 Y/G (5th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 25 / 12 / Ioannidis (7.5) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (79) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 9 / 11 / Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 43.93% / 28 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 50.0% / 7 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 17.3 Y/R (31st), 16 returns, long 26 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.7 Y/R (26th), 7 returns, long 12 yards (32nd), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 22.5 Y/R (14th), 8 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 6.8 Y/R (9th), 17 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 43.9 Y/P (19th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 7 / 18 / +11 / 3
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 64 / 22
Texans:
The Texans’ offensive statistics are mediocre overall, 18th in points scored and 16th in total yards. This is more of a volume rushing team than it is an efficient one, with feature back Lamar Miller having gained 525 yards at 4.2 yards per carry, and ranked just 26th in yards per attempt overall as a team. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is a runner himself, with 286 rushing yards on 50 carries on the season. Despite the mediocre overall passing numbers, Deandre Hopkins is an elite talent with 894 yards and 63 receptions on the season (ranked 4th and 7th, respectively). The Texans don’t have many glaring statistical holes on offense; the one area that they do poorly is red zone efficiency – they’ve only scored touchdowns on 45.95% of their red zone trips, which is ranked just 27th.
Statistically, the Texans feature a high-quality defense and the perhaps top rushing defense in the NFL – they are #1 in the NFL in yards per attempt, with just 3.6 yards per carry. Overall, they’ve only given up 184 points, which is 7th in the league, and 9th in total yards. Houston is not quite as good against the pass, with opposing quarterbacks completing 64.8% of their passes and earning an average quarterback rating of 92.9 (17th and 15th, respectively). The star of this defense is All-World defensive lineman JJ Watt, who already has 9 sacks on the year. The Texans have been terrible in red zone defense, with opponents scoring touchdowns on 73.91% of their trips inside the 20. With a defense as tough as Houston’s, the Redskins can ill afford to settle for field goals this week.
Record: 6 – 3 (1st) (Away: 3 – 2; NFC: 1 – 1)
All-time franchise record: 116 – 149 – 0
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
18 (points) / 16 (total yards) / 14 (yards per game) / 15 (yards per play) / 18 (passing yards) / 7 (passing yards per att.) / 14 (rushing yards) / 26 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 216 |
| Yards per game | 369.1 |
| Passing | 286 att (28th), 185 comp; 64.7% comp per. (19th); 8.4 Y/A; 2240 net yds; 17 TDs; 7 Int |
| Passing leader | Watson (285 att, 2389 yds (15th), 64.9% comp per., 17 TDs / 7 Int, 100.8 QB rating (13th); 50 carries, 286 yds, 5.4 Y/A) |
| Reception leader | Hopkins (894 yds (4th), 90 targets (8th), 63 rec (7th), 7 TD, 14.2 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 274 att (8th); 1082 yds; 3.9 Y/A; 120.2 Y/G (11th); 4 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Miller (125 att, 525 yds (17th), 2 TDs, 4.2 Y/A (30th), long 58 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 30 / 27 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 29:55 / 19 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 38.66% / 17 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 45.95% / 27 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 7 (points) / 9 (total yards) / 9 (yards per game surrendered) / 4 (yards per play) / 13 (passing yards) / 5 (passing yards per att.) / 6 (rushing yards) / 1 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 184 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 336.3 |
| Opponent’s passing | 332 att (20th); 215 comp; 64.8% comp per. (17th); 7.1 Y/A; 2191 net yds; 16 TD; QB Rating 92.9 (15) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 232 att (14th); 836 yds; 3.6 Y/A; 3 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 23 / 18 / Watt (9.0) |
| Tackles leader | McKinney (65) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 7 / 17 / Mathieu, Jackson, Reid (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 40.3% / 21 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 73.91% / 29 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 24.2 Y/R (8th), 11 returns, long 36 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 8.3 Y/R (16th), 21 returns, long 27 yards (16th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 17.2 Y/R (2nd), 13 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 6.1 Y/R (7th), 19 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 44.5 Y/P (16th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 11 / 15 / +4 / 9
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 66 / 25
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com