Game Preview, Week 15: Redskins at Jaguars
December 14, 2018
by Steve Thomas
Another week, another embarrassing mess for the Redskins; it’s par for the course at this point. This week, in addition to having the fourth starting quarterback of the year, it was inside linebacker Mason Foster criticizing the fan base in vulgar terms, and worse, on private social media messages that were subsequently leaked by the recipient, who was an anonymous “regular person”. If it’s not one thing with this franchise, it’s another. In terms of football, the Redskins are basically playing out the string at this point; this week, it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have had their own drama and poor play this year. Yes, the playoffs are technically possible, but it would require Washington to win its last 3 games and get some help. Don’t get me wrong; I’m rooting for that outcome, because for that to happen, it would mean that new quarterback Josh Johnson has led the team out of the abyss and that the defense has overcome its struggles to turn the season around despite overwhelming odds. I’d love to see that happen, but I’m just not confident that it will. It’s possible the Redskins can win this game, but a loss is far more likely. Our game preview begins below.
Game time & location: Sunday, December 16, 2018, 1:00 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL; Gates open 10:00 a.m. ET; parking lots open 8:00 a.m.
Television: CBS
Television announcers: Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, Steve Tasker
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Jaguars radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 231 (Jacksonville broad.) Sirius: 134 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Jaguars roster: Click here
Jaguars depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Jaguars: 5 – 1 (streak: 3 – 0)
Last meeting: L, September 14, 2014, 41 – 10
Early odds: Jacksonville, -7
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
The defense needs to prove that they aren’t quitters
The Giants game was a new low for the Redskins defense, not just in the final score, but in the attitude the defensive starters showed. It appears as though the vast majority of players on defense weren’t overly interested in the game and didn’t care whether Washington won or lost. They quit. The Redskins definitely aren’t going to win any more games this year if the defense doesn’t show that they actually have some heart and some willingness to give a full effort. There isn’t a whole lot of analysis that needs to be said, because everyone, from the fans, to the players, the coaches, and the other team, knows what the Redskins defense put on film last week. Watch for whether the defense looks motivated or lacksidasical on Sunday, because it’s a huge key to the game.
Josh Johnson must generate offense with his legs
I loved what Josh Johnson said at his press conference this week. It showed that he cared, is mature, and has prepared for this moment as best he could given his circumstances. I’m rooting for the guy to succeed, and not just because he’s the new Redskins starter. That aside, though, the reality is that Johnson probably isn’t going to be able to just sit back in the pocket and operate a traditional west coast-style scheme on just one week’s practice, particularly against one of the best pass defenses in the league. The Redskins are going to have to let Johnson do what he does best, and that means RPOs, shotgun and pistol formations, read options, and designed quarterback keepers. Johnson did appear to read the field better than Sanchez and seemed to have a quicker release, so he can be effective. The point is, though, that this is about as tall an order for a new starter as it gets, even despite Jacksonville’s inconsistency this season. Watch for whether Jay Gruden lets Johnson do his thing or whether he tries to force Johnson into his system. Based on the practice film we’ve seen this week, I suspect it’s the former.
More than other weeks, Adrian Peterson needs to lead the way
As I’ve said elsewhere, the Redskins are going to have to rely on their running game this week in order to have a successful offense, and that means a big dose of the feature back. Peterson needs to have a big day in order to allow the Redskins have a shot at winning the field position battle in what is likely going to be a low-scoring affair, particularly against the Jaguar’s highly rated pass defense. The problem, of course, is that the Redskins’ offensive line has done a terrible job in run blocking recently, partially as a result of the mountain of injuries the team has sustained, but also because this group has had an unacceptable number of penalties, and quite a few missed assignments. The offensive line is going to have to take a major step up for Peterson this week. Watch for whether he’s getting repeatedly hit in the backfield or whether he has time to let the holes develop.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon vs Mason Foster and Zach Brown
The Redskins have had an unfortunate habit this season of letting otherwise unremarkable running backs look better than they are, and in the case of Saquon Barkley, making a rookie look like a hall of famer. Mason Foster and Zach Brown have both been in hot water this week for obvious reasons that I’m honestly sick of talking about. Both of them need to show the football world that they are professionals who can effectively play their roles. If Foster and Brown have more scheme breakdowns, as has been the pattern this season, we might be in for another long day, defensively. However, neither Fournette not Yeldon are having particularly good seasons, so if Foster and Brown play mistake-free football, there’s no reason why the Redskins can’t hold those two to reasonable days. Because the Jaguars are limited in their aerial attack, thanks to the fact that Cody Kessler is the quarterback and that receiver Marquise Lee is on injured reserve, it’s likely going to be the Fournette – Yeldon show on Sunday. Mason Foster and Zach Brown are the keys.
Ryan Kerrigan vs. Jeremy Parnell
When the other team benches a mediocre quarterback like Blake Bortles for another medicore quarterback like Kessler, and doesn’t feature receivers that really scare anyone, this ought to be a billboard-sized sign to make said new quarterback immensely uncomfortable in the pocket. Ryan Kerrigan is Washington’s most reliable pass rusher, and he needs to come through this week. The likes of Jeremy Parnell at the right tackle position should not be allowed to be a serious impediment to success for Kerrigan. This is even more true if Parnell, who’s hurt and hasn’t practice at all as of Thursday, can’t go and is replaced by a second stringer. If you see Kerrigan getting home quite a bit on Sunday, it most likely means that the Jacksonville passing game is even more limited than normal, which is a good sign. Keep an eye out for how well Kerrigan is doing against competition that he should be able to handle.
Greg Stroman and Fabian Moreau vs Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief
I realize that I just spent significant words talking about how the Jaguars are going to run the ball and how Ryan Kerrigan needs to be the guy to put pressure on the quarterback. However, Greg Stroman, who’s been pressed into a much larger role that he’s really ready for thanks to the injury to Quinton Dunbar (and a lack of a seasoned, competent backup, but that’s another question for another day), has been repeatedly abused by opposing wide receivers. The whole “pressure Kessler and limit the effectiveness of the running backs” gameplan goes out the window if the Jaguars’ starting receivers, Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief, can take advantage of the rookie corner. For as much grief as Josh Norman has taken this year, mostly of his own doing, it isn’t likely that the Jaguars are going to spend a ton of time challenging him. That honor is going to go to Stroman and Fabian Moreau, who’s had many awful moments of his own this season. These two men need to come through for Washington and not allow the Jaguars receivers to start getting wide open catches, because if that happens, the game plan is going to change for the worse.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Thursday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Jaguars |
| LB R. Anderson, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | WR DJ Chark, quadricep; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| OL T. Bergstrom, knee/ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | S C. Davis, illness; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP |
| WR J. Doctson, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP; game: Q | LB Leon Jacobs, quadricep; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: IR |
| DL M. Ioannidis, shin; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | OL J. Parnell, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| QB C. McCoy, fibula; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | K J. Lambo, right groin; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
| T T. Nsekhe, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | NT A. Jones, shin; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| TE J. Reed, ankle/foot; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | TE J. O’Shaughnessy, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| LB S. Dion-Hamilton, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | OL J. Walker, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: LP; game: O |
| RB A. Peterson, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | LB L. McCray, illness; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
| C C. Roullier, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| T M. Moses, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| T T. Williams, thumb/wrist; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR J. Crowder, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| CB G. Stroman, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| S M. Nicholson, illness; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: DNP; game: Q | |
| LS N. Sundberg, lower back; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: FP; game: Q | |
| RB C. Thompson, illness; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
Trying to glean nuggets of wisdom about the Redskins offense out of their statistics is almost laughable at this point given the incredible number of injuries. On the year, Washington is 28th in points, 27th in total yardage, 26th in passing yards, and 17th in rushing yards, all of which matches the eye test. It’s been a fairly anemic ride all year that was made worse when Alex Smith went down. The Redskins are now 26th in third down conversions, an area that has been a problem all year. It’s almost impossible to predict with any degree of certainty the effect Josh Johnson will have on the offensive statistics except to say that rushing numbers should rise somewhat based on Johnson’s ability on the ground. That will also likely make things easier for Adrian Peterson as well, so keep at eye out on a rise in the rushing numbers. Plus, the Jaguars defense is weaker against the run, so the Redskins will most likely have to rely on that aspect of their offense in order to succeed. Take note of the Redskins’ plummeting turnover ratio – it was at +13 just a few weeks ago. This is due to the fact that the post-Smith quarterbacks, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, and even Johnson, have all been turnover machines during their time on the field. Finally, time of possession has downright fallen off a cliff – Washington at one point led the league, but have fallen to just 19th.
Defensively, the tailspin continues. The Redskins have been one of the worst, if not the worst, defense in the league over the last few weeks. Overall on the season, the Redskins have surrendered 297 points, which is ranked 14th. The fact that this ranking is still this high is solely the result of the level of success early in the season. Opposing offenses are now averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the ground thanks to a horrific past few weeks. The glaring statistical weakness that has been present all year, even in the best of times, has been third down conversions. The Redskins are allowing opponents to convert at a rate of over 43%, which is ranked 29th in the league.
Record: 6 – 7 (3rd) (Away: 3 – 3; AFC: 0 – 2)
All-time franchise record: 599 – 588 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 28 (points) (trend -1) / 27 (total yards) (trend even) / 27 (yards per game) (trend even) / 28 (yards per play) (trend +1) / 26 (passing yards) (trend -1) / 28 (passing yards per att.) (trend +1) / 17 (rushing yards) (trend -2) /1 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -2) |
| Points for | 249 |
| Yards per game | 320.7 |
| Passing
|
433 att (20th); 269 comp; 62.1% comp per. (23rd); 6.7 Y/A; 2686 net yds; 14 TD; 12 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (328 att, 2180 yds (27th), 62.5% comp perc (24th), 10 TDs / 5 Int, 85.7 QB rating (26th) |
| Receiving leader | Reed (558 yds (59th), 84 tgts (36th), 54 rec (43rd), 2 TD, 10.3 YPC) |
| Rushing | 335 att (15th); 1483 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 114.1 Y/G (17th); 12 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (202 att (5th), 872 yds (8th), 7 TD, 4.3 Y/A (31st), long 90) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 35 / 16 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:05 / 19 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 35.7% / 26 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 54.29% / 21 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 14 (points) (trend -6) / 20 (total yards) (trend even) / 20 (yards per game surrendered) (trend even) / 24 (yards per play) (trend -4) / 22 (passing yards) (trend +5) / 24 (passing yards per att.) (trend +1) / 14 (rushing yards) (trend -5) / 18 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -5) |
| Points against | 297 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 370.1 |
| Opponent’s passing | 461 att (20th); 307 comp; 66.6% comp perc. (22nd); 7.8 Y/A; 3351 net yds; 23 TDs; QB Rating 94.8 (17th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 326 att (15th; 1460 yds; 4.5 Y/A; 11 TD; 112.3 Y/G (14th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 34 / 17 / Kerrigan (9.0) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (108) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 13 / 10 / Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 43.04% / 29 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.27% / 8 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 19.8 Y/R (25th), 23 returns, long 44 yards (17th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.6 Y/R (23rd), 12 returns, long 30 yards (17th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 21.7 Y/R (11th), 11 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 7.7 Y/R (13th), 26 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 45.0 Y/P (15th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 16 / 23 / +7 / 9
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 99 / 30
Jaguars:
The Jaguars feature an inconsistent and largely incapable offense that does not move the ball much (25th in total yards) and can’t score many points (30th). Their run game, generally, is only average at best, with prized former first round pick Leonard Fournette only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and T.J. Yeldon averaging 4.0. Blake Bortles leads the team in passing stats overall, but the Redskins will face Cody Kessler, who took over the starting quarterback role two weeks ago. Jacksonville really doesn’t do anything well, statistically, although they’ve had their moments at times over the course of the season. Essentially, this is a bad offense, so if the Redskins defense – which is clearly fractured and in a terrible state right now – are ever going to have a get-well game, this is it.
Defensively, Jacksonville has been far more inconsistent this year than essentially this same group of players was last season when they reached the AFC Championship game without much offensive help. Despite a few hiccups here and there, the pass defense numbers are still elite: 2nd in total passing yards, 4th in passing yards per attempt, 2nd in average opposing quarterback rating (83.4), and 3rd in opposing completion percentage (61.4%). The Jaguars are not nearly as successful against the run – they’ve surrendered 4.5 yards per carry, so if the Redskins offense is going to gain some traction, it’s most likely going to be on the ground.
Record: 4 – 9 (4th) (Home: 3 – 4; NFC: 1 – 2)
All-time franchise record: 169 – 212 – 0
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
30 (points) / 25 (total yards) / 25 (yards per game) / 29 (yards per play) / 24 (passing yards) / 28 (passing yards per att.) / 20 (rushing yards) / 28 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 212 |
| Yards per game | 329.0 |
| Passing | 467 att (13th); 288 comp; 61.7% comp per. (26th); 6.7 Y/A; 2882 net yds; 15 TDs; 11 Int |
| Passing leader | Bortles (369 att, 2572 yds (22nd), 60.4% comp per., 13 TDs / 10 Int, 81.9 QB rating (29th)) |
| Reception leader | Westbrook (641 yds (41st), 81 targets (42nd), 53 rec (45th), 5 TD, 12.1 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 342 att (12th); 1395 yds; 4.1 Y/A; 107.3 Y/G (20th); 6 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Yeldon (101 att, 408 yds (46th), 1 TD, 4.0 Y/A (37th), long 20 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 38 / 23 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:32 / 14 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 41.4% / 11 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 48.28% / 19 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 8 (points) / 6 (total yards) / 6 (yards per game surrendered) / 8 (yards per play) / 2 (passing yards) / 4 (passing yards per att.) / 21 (rushing yards) / 17 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 273 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 324.1 |
| Opponent’s passing | 417 att (5th); 256 comp; 61.4% comp per. (3rd); 6.8 Y/A; 2648 net yds; 15 TD; QB Rating 83.4 (2nd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 350 att (23rd); 1565 yds; 4.5 Y/A; 14 TD; 120.4 Y/G (21st) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 25 / 28 / Campbell, Ngakoue (7.0) |
| Tackles leader | Smith (111) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 10 / 21 / Ramsey (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 38.01% / 14 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.63% / 10 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 19.5 Y/R (27th), 24 returns, long 47 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 7.8 Y/R (16th), 24 returns, long 25 yards (19th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 17.9 Y/R (1st), 16 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 4.0 Y/R (1st), 26 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 44.4 Y/P (21st) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 24 / 14 / -10 / 30
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 95 / 26
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com