Game Preview, Week 17: Eagles at Redskins
December 28, 2018
by Steve Thomas
We should all be used to a drama-filled Redskins season, since it seems to happen just about every year, but the 2018 campaign has been off the charts even by Washington standards. In the midst of all of the nutty things going on at Redskins Park is the final game of the season against the hated Philadelphia Eagles and the sub-humanoid fans who will no doubt follow them down to Fed Ex Field. The Eagles are still in the playoff hunt and will therefore be highly motivated to put this game away early to maximize their chances of continuing their season. The Redskins, on the other hand, are just trying to get out of the season without anything else bad happening. Still, though, this is the Eagles and the team and fans alike should be rooting for the home team to ruin Philly’s playoff chances. I don’t want to hear about draft position lost in the event of a victory. I’ll start to care about that in the offseason. For now, please just end the season on a good note and send the Eagles home in shame, Redskins. Our last preview of the season starts below.
Game time & location: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Landover, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Chris Myers, Daryl Johnson, Laura Okmin
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Eagles radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 225 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 83 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Eagles roster: Click here
Eagles depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Eagles: 85 – 77 – 6 (last 10: 5 – 5) (streak: 0 – 3)
Last meeting: L, December 3, 2018, 13 – 28
Early odds: Eagles, -7.5
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Overcome the malise of the final week
It’s entirely possible that this game ends up being a tough one for the players to exert a full effort. On the other hand, they are professionals playing for future contracts. At a minimum, key players such as quarterback Josh Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Jonathan Allen are all self-motivated, and in Peterson’s case, psychotically competitive. Johnson, for his part, is clearly trying to make the most of his shot in DC and wants to have a good game. It’s possible that those key leaders rub off on the team, shut out the chaos of the past week, and play well. If they are going to win, they’ll have to do that. Coming out flat and unmotivated against the Eagles, who are still fighting for their playoff lives, is a recipe for a blowout. On the other hand, what’s better than spoiling the Eagles season? Nothing is more important this week than the attitude of the Redskins players, and it’s likely that we’ll be able to immediately see which version of the team shows up at Fed Ex Field on Sunday.
Find a way to limit Zach Ertz’s effectiveness
Zach Ertz has taken the banner of the NFL’s #1 tight end away from Rob Gronkowski, at least in terms of production. Ertz has an astounding 113 receptions so far and looks to add to the total against a team with linebackers who are either unathletic or weak in coverage. The Redskins must, somehow, some way, figure out how to limit Ertz and keep him from being the lynchpin to the Philadelphia offense like he’s been all year. Yes, I realize it’s a tall order, and it’s a case of me pointing out what needs to happen rather than what will happen, simply due to the massive matchup problem, but this is an important key to a Redskins victory.
Take advantage of the Eagles’ poor run defense
The 2018 Redskins must run the ball in order to be effective. That’s not news, but it’s even more true against the Eagles, who have been bad all season in stopping opposing teams’ running games. Philadelphia has given up an average of 4.8 yards per carry this season and is ranked 28th in total rushing yards surrendered. Quite simply, the Redskins must have a big day on the ground from Adrian Peterson in order to have any chance of scoring even an NFL average number of points and winning this game. This is a plan that truly can work for Washington, and has the added advantage of keeping the ball out of the hands of the high-flying Eagles. Watch for whether Adrian Peterson has another big game; if he doesn’t, it could be a long day.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Mason Foster and Zach Brown vs Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz is the most productive tight end in the NFL, by alot, and that includes the 2018 versions of the aforementioned Gronkowski and Kansas City’s Travis Kelce. This matchup certainly doesn’t scream “advantage, Redskins”, but the simple truth is that if the Redskins are going to win this game, the inside linebacker group is going to have to play well enough to keep Ertz from going crazy. It’s most definitely a huge challenge considering that Foster is one of the more athletically limited starting linebackers you’ll find and Zach Brown, for all of his athletic gifts, is lousy in coverage. Regardless, expect the Eagles to lean heavily on Ertz to power the offense. If he gets rolling, it most likely won’t turn out well for the home team.
Nick Foles was a passing maniac last week against the Texans in relief of the yet again injured Carson Wentz, but he’s not best runner in the world. Ryan Kerrigan, he of the 83.5 career sacks, has a tough matchup against one of the better right tackles in the league, but the Redskins need him to make life uncomfortable for Foles and try to throw Foles off his game. The Eagles are very likely going to be extremely pass-centric on Sunday, so Kerrigan needs to be the elite pass rusher that his stats say he is. The Redskins will need to put a significant amount of pressure on the quarterback in order to give the secondary a chance against Ertz and company.
Fletcher Cox vs. the Redskins no-name interior linemen
Fletcher Cox is the Eagles’ best defensive lineman. You may have heard that the Redskins have had an injury or two along their offensive line, particularly in the interior. Considering that Tony Bergstrom, Zach Kerin, and Ty Nsekhe are all on the injury report (look below), there’s no telling who, exactly, will get to face off against one of the NFL’s best. The Redskins need Johnson to be able to guide at least a somewhat capable passing game, and they more need Adrian Peterson to have a big day. Neither of those things can happen if Cox is constantly in the backfield.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Thursday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Eagles |
| LB R. Anderson, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | DE M. Bennett, foot; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| WR M. Harris, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: IR | S C. Graham, illness; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| DL M. Ioannidis, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q | CB S. Jones, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| QB C. McCoy, fibula; Wed: DNP; Thurs: IR; Fri: IR; game: IR | T J. Peters, quadricep; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| T T. Nsekhe, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | G I. Seumalo, pectoral; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O |
| TE J. Reed, ankle/foot; Wed: DNP; Thurs: IR; Fri: IR; game: IR | QB C. Wentz, back; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| OL T. Bergstrom, knee/ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | LB D.J. Alexander, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| WR J. Crowder, wrist; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | DT F. Cox, hip; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| TE V. Davis, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: D | C J. Kelce, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| G Z. Kerin, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | WR M. Wallace, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O |
| RB A. Peterson, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | LB J. Hicks, calf; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| T T. Williams, thumb/wrist; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| QB J. Johnson, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR J. Doctson, illness; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
The Redskins offense continues to chug along with the rest of the NFL’s bottom dwellers in nearly every category that doesn’t involve Peterson. They are now 29th in total points scored, 28th in yards gained, 28th in passing yardage, and 24th in touchdowns scored in the red zone. Jordan Reed, who hasn’t played in three weeks, remains the team’s leading receiver with 54 receptions and 558 yards. Washington is in the middle of the pack in time of possession (15th), third down conversions (19th), and total rushing yardage (17th). For his part, Peterson is one of the most productive backs in the NFL, with 247 receptions (3rd-most in the league) and 1,042 yards (6th) and is essentially the lone bright spot on an otherwise well below average offense.
Defensively, the Redskins continue to be a middle of the pack team as measured by total points scored (14th), total yards (15th), passing yardage (15th), and rushing yards surrendered (17th). Opposing quarterbacks have a 66.2% completion percentage (22nd) and an average quarterback rating of 93.4 (14th). This defense has been terrible on third downs, allowing opposing offenses to convert on 42.86% of attempts (ranked 29th), yet are a top 10 team in the red zone, only giving up touchdowns 51.02% of the time, which is the 8th-lowest in the league.
It won’t surprise you to learn that the Redskins have been statistically bad all season on kickoff and punt returns and punt return defense, ranked 26th in all three. However, Washington is at least average in kickoff defense, ranked 16th.
Record: 7 – 8 (3rd) (Home: 3 – 4; NFC: 6 – 5; NFC East 2 – 3)
All-time franchise record: 600 – 589 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 29 (points) (trend -1) / 28 (total yards) (trend even) / 28 (yards per game) (trend even) / 28 (yards per play) (trend even) / 28 (passing yards) (trend -2) / 28 (passing yards per att.) (trend even) / 17 (rushing yards) (trend even) / 16 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +3) |
| Points for | 281 |
| Yards per game | 313.7 |
| Passing
|
481 att (26th); 298 comp; 62.0% comp per. (25th); 6.6 Y/A; 2953 net yds; 16 TD; 14 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (328 att, 2180 yds (29th), 62.5% comp perc (25th), 10 TDs / 5 Int, 85.7 QB rating (27th) |
| Receiving leader | Reed (558 yds (75th), 84 tgts (54th), 54 rec (59th), 2 TD, 10.3 YPC) |
| Rushing | 402 att (11th); 1753 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 116.9 Y/G (17th); 12 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (247 att (3rd), 1042 yds (6th), 7 TD, 4.2 Y/A (33rd), long 90) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 40 / 20 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:29 / 15 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 38.1% / 19 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.5% / 24 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 14 (points) (trend even) / 15 (total yards) (trend +3) / 15 (yards per game surrendered) (trend +3) / 19 (yards per play) (trend +3) / 15 (passing yards) (trend +3) / 25 (passing yards per att.) (trend -3) / 17 (rushing yards) (trend +1) / 21 (rushing yards per att.) (trend even) |
| Points against | 335 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 352.9 |
| Opponent’s passing | 503 att (14th); 333 comp; 66.2% comp perc. (22nd); 7.7 Y/A; 3563 net yds; 24 TDs; QB Rating 93.4 (14th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 379 att (13th); 1731 yds; 4.6 Y/A; 11 TD; 115.4 Y/G (17th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 43 /10 / Kerrigan (12.0) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (123) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 14 / 11 / Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 42.86% / 29 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 51.02% / 8 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 19.8 Y/R (26th), 26 returns, long 44 yards (17th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.0 Y/R (26th), 15 returns, long 30 yards (19th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 22.7 Y/R (16th), 13 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 10.0 Y/R (26th), 30 returns, 1 TD |
| Punting | 45.4 Y/P (12th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 18 / 25 / +7 / 7
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 113 / 29
Eagles:
The 2018 Eagles are a passing team, with 565 attempts on the year, which is the 7th highest number in the league. They have scored 343 points which, while more than Washington, is nonetheless a middle of the pack number (18th). They are ranked 13th in total yardage and 8th in passing yardage, but only 28th in rushing yardage. However, the Eagles have only made 364 rushing attempts this season, which is ranked 22nd. They’ve averaged just 4.0 yards per attempt as a team. Josh Adams is better than that, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt on 109 attempts, most of which have come in the latter half of the season. The Eagles are mediocre on third down (ranked 13th) and in the red zone (ranked 18th). This team’s real achilles heel has been turnovers. Philadelphia has a -6 turnover ratio on the season, with 22 lost on 10 interceptions.
Defensively, the Eagles are 16th in total points surrendered, 28th in total yards, 27th in yards per play, 32nd and last in total passing yardage, and 27th in rushing yards per attempt. Philadephia is a team on whom the Redskins should be able to move the ball and score. What’s keeping the Eagles in games despite the massive amounts of yardage is decent third down defense (ranked 11th) and outstanding red zone defense. The Eagles have only surrendered touchdowns in the red zone on 44.64% of opponent’s visits, which is 3rd best in the NFL. The statistics say this is a classic “bend but don’t break” defense.
Record: 8 – 7 (2nd) (Away: 3 – 4; NFC: 5 – 6; NFC East: 3 – 2)
All-time franchise record: 576 – 601 – 26
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
18 (points) / 13 (total yards) / 13 (yards per game) / 16 (yards per play) / 8 (passing yards) / 14 (passing yards per att.) / 28 (rushing yards) / 29 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 343 |
| Yards per game | 365.7 |
| Passing | 565 att (7th); 393 comp; 69.6% comp per. (3rd); 7.6 Y/A; 4044 net yds; 26 TDs; 10 Int |
| Passing leader | Wentz (401 att, 3074 yds (20th), 69.6% comp per., 21 TDs / 7 Int, 102.2 QB rating (7th)); Foles (162 att, 1192 yds, 69.8% comp per., 5 TDs / 3 Int, 93.4 QB rating |
| Reception leader | Ertz (1148 yds (14th), 152 targets (5th), 113 rec (2nd), 8 TD, 10.2 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 364 att (22nd); 1441 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 96.1 Y/G (28th); 12 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Adams (109 att, 461 yds (44th), 3 TDs, 4.2 Y/A (33rd), long 29 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 37 / 15 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 31:41 / 3 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 39.8% / 13 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 57.41% / 18 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 16 (points) / 28 (total yards) / 28 (yards per game surrendered) / 27 (yards per play) / 32 (passing yards) / 20 (passing yards per att.) / 7 (rushing yards) / 27 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 348 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 384.7 |
| Opponent’s passing | 598 att (30th); 404 comp; 67.6% comp per. (27th); 7.6 Y/A; 4240 net yds; 22 TD; QB Rating 95.9 (20th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 488 att (30th); 1927 yds; 4.8 Y/A; 15 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 40 / 13 / Cox (7.5) |
| Tackles leader | Jenkins, Bradham (93) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 9 / 25 / Douglas, Maddox (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 37.31% / 11 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 44.64% / 3 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 22.1 Y/R (18th), 33 returns, long 48 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.7 Y/R (21st), 32 returns, long 42 yards (13th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 23.1 Y/R (19th), 21 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 6.0 Y/R (5th), 29 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 48.5 Y/P (2nd) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 22 / 16 / -6 / 24
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 95 / 10
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com