2019 NFL Playoff Preview
January 4, 2019
by Steve Thomas and Jamual Forrest
The 2019 NFL playoffs are finally here. Our beloved Redskins aren’t involved, of course, but that’s par for the course and you already knew that. I realize that some of you had your hopes raised by the 6 – 3 start, but you should’ve known what was going to happen, so that’s on you. Now, you have the pleasure of watching the New England Patriots, again, as well as both the Cowboys and the Eagles taking their shot at Super Bowl LIV. To that end, we have helpfully once again provided our annual playoff preview, chock full of every bit of data we could reasonably include.
For those of you who haven’t read our playoff previews in years past, we first provide the basics of the schedule and an overview of each of the four wildcard games. Beyond that, in order to give you a somewhat objective picture of each team’s playoff chances (rather than the useless and ubiquitous subjective “power ranking”), we developed a system wherein we list the objective rankings for each of the twelve playoff teams in a number of different important offensive and defensive statistics, as compared to just the playoff teams, meaning that, on both offense and defense, we’ve listed the 1 through 12 rankings for each team for a number of different categories, all of which are listed at the top of each chart. For example, the Chiefs have the number 1 in the offense chart for “points”, meaning that the Chiefs are the top-scoring offense in this year’s playoffs. As was the case last year, we’ve tweaked the various ranked statistics that we used in last year’s preview. Then, we averaged all of the offensive and defensive statistics to provide one number for each team – the lower the overall number, the better. We’ve sorted each chart by overall rank order, from lowest ranking (meaning, best) to highest ranking (meaning, worst). This method doesn’t necessary show the “best” team, or serve as a prediction, but it demonstrates which teams are the most complete and capable based on their regular season statistical results. Usually, one or two teams really stick out, and these rankings normally get pretty close to how the games actually turn out. Hopefully, the results will give you an idea of which teams are most primed and ready to face off for the Super Bowl title.
Isn’t this better than a simple list of power rankings? I hope so. Bear with us to the end, though, because it is yet another case of The Hog Sty (really, just me) drowning you in numbers. So, onward.
First things first – the 2019 NFL Playoff schedule:
Wild Card Weekend Divisional Weekend
Saturday, Jan. 5 Saturday, Jan. 12
4:35 p.m. ET – Colts (#6) at Texans (#3) (ESPN) 4:35 p.m. ET – #4/#5/#6 at Chiefs (#1) (NBC)
8:15 p.m. ET – Seahawks (#6) at Cowboys (#4) (ESPN) 8:15 p.m. ET – #3/#4/#5 at Rams (#2) (Fox)
Sunday, Jan. 6 Sunday, Jan. 13
1:05 p.m. ET – Chargers (#5) at Ravens (#4) (CBS) 1:05 p.m. ET – #3/#4/#5 at Patriots (#2) (CBS)
4:40 p.m. ET – Eagles (#6) at Bears (#4) (NBC) 4:40 p.m. ET – #4/#5/#6 at Saints (#1) (Fox)
Championship Weekend Super Bowl
Sunday, Jan. 20 Sunday, Feb. 3
3:05 p.m. ET – NFC (Fox) 6:30 p.m. ET – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia (CBS)
6:40 p.m. ET – AFC (CBS)
Jamual’s Wild Card Matchup Preview
Colts vs. Texans
The Colts and Texans face off for the third time this year and will undoubtedly bring in the 2019 NFL playoffs with a bang. The Colts, winners of their last nine of ten games, are surging as they head into Houston this Saturday. The most significant improvement for the Colts this season has been the offensive line play. The Colts rank fifth in points and seventh in yards so protecting Andrew Luck, who has been bit heavily by the injury bug over the past two seasons, is critical. Luck has only been sacked 18 times on the year; however, six of the 18 sacks came against Houston, which points to Houston’s strength coming into this game. Houston boasted the fourth best scoring defense and tied for sixth in the NFL in defensive sacks. The front seven of Houston is what would be the reason the Colts will be neutralized in their third match-up of the year. Overall, it will be a trench war for the most part, but make no mistake, star quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson will duke it out and make for a great game.
Seahawks vs. Cowboys
Russell Wilson, one of the best active playoff quarterbacks in the league, heads into Jerry World to face off against the Dallas Cowboys in the Saturday nightcap. Russell has never been one-and-done in the NFL playoffs and boasts an 8-4 playoff record heading into the Seahawks match-up against the Cowboys. However, the Seahawks will have their hands full against the Cowboys this particular season, who will match-up very nicely against this 2018 Seattle team. In week three in Seattle, the Seahawks dominated the Cowboys, winning 24-13 and forcing three turnovers between quarterback Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. It was a rough game for the two Dallas stars; however, they have a chance for revenge in Dallas, in the postseason. Dallas boasts the fifth-best rush defense in yards allowed and yards per attempt; also, Dallas also has the sixth-best defense in points allowed. Their strength on defense plays well against the Seahawks offensive strength, which is to run the ball. Seattle has the number one ranked rush offense in yards per game, which is what brought stability to a lost offense early on in the year. For Dallas, the run game and defense is what will give them the best chance to win Saturday. For Seattle, as always, Russell Wilson will need to will this team to a victory in their biggest game of the season to date. Now, he will have help offensively, since running back Chris Carson is a quality player, as well are receivers Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. However, Wilson is the bottom-line answer to Seattle victories following the post-Marshawn Lynch era.
Chargers vs. Ravens
The third-consecutive revenge opportunity in the 2018 postseason for a team features the Los Angeles Chargers heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Baltimore, who made the trip to Los Angeles and thoroughly dominated the Chargers on their home field, has entirely transformed under their new quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens, behind the Seahawks, has the number two ranked rush offense. Their recent offensive success is largely in part due to the versatility Lamar Jackson provides as a quarterback. He is an elite rusher of the football and makes it very difficult for a defense to contain him. In their first matchup two weeks ago, turnovers killed the Chargers opportunities to stay in the game and even cost them for good, late. This time around, the Chargers must find a way to protect pocket passer Phillip Rivers, and protect Rivers from himself. Rivers’ aggressive nature is a gift and a curse. It makes him one of the best active quarterbacks in the NFL, but it is also what gets him into trouble many times. Chargers have an uphill climb against the Ravens this week; however, expect them to well-prepared their second time around.
Eagles vs. Bears
The last game of the Wild Card slate ends in Soldier Field as the Eagles take on the Chicago Bears. The Bears have one of the best win improvements of the year, a seven-win improvement from a season ago and an NFC North division title. Meanwhile, Philadelphia finished their season strong winning five of the last six, and with the help of the Vikings folding against the Bears, earned the sixth seed. Nick Foles has been excellent again for the Eagles, and now faces one of the league’s best defenses on their home field. The challenge of this game will once again be in the trenches. Both the Bears and Eagles have some of the best defensive lines in the NFL and wreak havoc amongst opposing offensive lines. For the Eagles to stand a chance, it is imperative that they win the turnover battle and create short fields for an offense that is hitting its stride right now. A short field will make it easier for the Eagles to put up points, preventing the need to have to drive the entire field each possession. The Bears’ explosiveness offensively and powering defense must continue to stay true to themselves; points will be hard to come by in this game so Chicago must continue to play the same way they did to earn the three seed. Stay aggressive on both sides of the football.
Analysis – Schedule & Win-Loss Records
The records for each of the playoff teams in their last 8 games are:
New Orleans (#1): 6 – 2 Kansas City Chiefs (#1): 5 – 3
Los Angeles Rams (#2): 5 – 3 New England Patriots (#2): 5 – 3
Chicago Bears (#3): 7 – 1 Houston Texans (#3): 6 – 2
Dallas Cowboys (#4): 7 – 1 Baltimore Ravens (#4): 6 – 2
Seattle Seahawks (#5): 6 – 2 Los Angeles Chargers (#5): 6 – 2
Philadelphia Eagles (#6): 5 – 3 Indianapolis Colts (#6): 7 – 1
What sticks out here is that the Bears, Cowboys, and Colts have all been on a roll in the second half of the season, with each team suffering only 1 loss. None of the other teams were outliers, either in a good or bad way. No team backed into the playoffs – the Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots had the worst second half records amongst the playoff teams, they each still had 5 wins. There’s a good bit of parity, at least from a record perspective.
The next table shows the number of games each team played against winning teams this season versus the number of games played against winning teams that each team won this season and the number of road wins:
| # gms plyd against winning tms | # gms won against winning tms | Road Wins | ||
| New Orleans (13-3, #1) | 6 | 5 | 7 | |
| Kansas City (12-4, #1) | 7 | 4 | 5 | |
| Los Angeles Rams (13-3, #2) | 8 | 5 | 6 | |
| New England Patriots (11-5, #2) | 7 | 2 | 3 | |
| Chicago Bears (12-4, #3) | 5 | 4 | 5 | |
| Houston Texans (11-5, #3) | 7 | 3 | 5 | |
| Dallas Cowboys (10-6, #4) | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Baltimore Ravens (10-6, #4) | 6 | 3 | 4 | |
| Seattle Seahawks (10-6, #5) | 7 | 3 | 4 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers (12-4, #5) | 7 | 4 | 7 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #6) | 8 | 3 | 4 | |
| Indianapolis Colts (10-6, #6) | 7 | 4 | 4 |
In what should be no surprise, the Saints were the best team amongst the 12 playoff teams against teams with winning records, playing 6 and winning 5. The Bears were next with 4 wins in 5 games. Unusually, the Patriots have been the worst among all playoff teams by this measure, playing 7 games against winning teams but winning only 2. The Cowboys and the Texans follow behind with just 3 wins each.
In terms of road wins, the Patriots and the Cowboys are the worst on the road with just 3 wins each. The Saints (who won’t have to play on the road until the Super Bowl) and the Chargers were the best this season, with 7 road wins each. The Rams and Texans were next, with 5 wins. Most importantly, though, are how the teams that will have to play on the road throughout the playoffs faired, and by that measure, the Chargers stick out like a sore thumb. By this measure, the Chargers seem poised to do well in the playoffs. All of the other wildcard teams were .500 on the road.
Analysis – Offense
The following chart shows the offensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 12 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| NFL Playoff teams offensive rankings | |||||||||||||
| Points | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rating | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conversion | Sum | Overall Rank | |
| Kansas City (12-4, #1) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3.000 | 1 |
| New Orleans (13-3, #1) | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4.182 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Rams (13-3, #2) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 4.455 | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts (10-6, #6) | 5 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 5.909 | 4 |
| NE Patriots (11-5, #2) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6.091 | 6 |
| LA Chargers (12-4, #5) | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6.091 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks (10-6, #5) | 7 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 6.909 | 7 |
| Houston Texans (11-5, #3) | 9 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 8.000 | 10 |
| Baltimore Ravens (10-6, #4) | 10 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 8.000 | 10 |
| Phil Eagles (9-7, #6) | 11 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 8.000 | 10 |
| Chicago Bears (12-4, #3) | 8 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 8.364 | 11 |
| Dallas Cowboys (10-6, #4) | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 9.182 | 12 |
When sorted to just include the 6 NFC playoff teams:
| NFC Playoff teams offensive rankings | |||||||||||||
| Points | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rating | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conversion | Sum | Overall Rank | |
| New Orleans (13-3, #1) | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2.000 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams (13-3, #2) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2.273 | 2 |
| Seattle Seahawks (10-6, #5) | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3.545 | 3 |
| Phil Eagles (9-7, #6) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4.091 | 4 |
| Chicago Bears (12-4, #3) | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4.364 | 5 |
| Dallas Cowboys (10-6, #4) | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4.727 | 6 |
When sorted to just include the 6 AFC playoff teams:
| AFC Playoff teams offensive rankings | |||||||||||||
| Points | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rating | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conversion | Sum | Overall Rank | |
| Kansas City (12-4, #1) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.909 | 1 |
| Indianapolis Colts (10-6, #6) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3.273 | 2 |
| LA Chargers (12-4, #5) | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.455 | 3 |
| NE Patriots (11-5, #2) | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.364 | 4 |
| Houston Texans (11-5, #3) | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4.455 | 5 |
| Baltimore Ravens (10-6, #4) | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4.545 | 6 |
The offensive rankings show that the three most effective offensive teams are the Chiefs, Saints, and Rams, and then everyone else. Those three teams produced the most points and yards throughout the regular season, by far. Between those three teams, they are number one amongst playoff teams in every offensive category with the exception of sacks surrendered and third down conversions. The next most successful team overall was the Indianapolis Colts, who (as you can see) were ranked an average of 2.5 points behind the Chiefs and over 1.5 points below the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are the best passing team in the playoffs, and in the NFL at large, and it isn’t close. The Chiefs are not quite as successful in the run game, ranked third, but nonetheless produced the most points and yards of any team. On the other end of the spectrum, the Dallas Cowboys are the lowest-ranked offensive team, by far, having scored the least amount of points and total yards, and the second-least passing yards, and are in the bottom three in sacks surrendered, quarterback rating, and touchdowns in the red zone. The Texans, Ravens, Eagles, and Bears round out the bottom half of the rankings. The 2018 Super Bowl champion Eagles did not have a consistent season and were ranked 10th. The New England Patriots saw a dramatic dropoff from last year, even in passing stats. While they were ranked 4th in points, overall they graded out in the middle of the pack.
Analysis – Defense
The following chart shows the defensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 12 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole:
| NFL Playoff teams defensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| Points | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conversion | Sum | Overall Rank | |
| Chicago Bears (12-4, #3) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2.214 | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens (10-6, #4) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3.571 | 2 |
| LA Chargers (12-4, #5) | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 5.786 | 3 |
| Houston Texans (11-5, #3) | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 6.143 | 4 |
| NE Patriots (11-5, #2) | 5 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 6.429 | 5 |
| Indianapolis Colts (10-6, #6) | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 7.071 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks (10-6, #5) | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7.214 | 7 |
| Dallas Cowboys (10-6, #4) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 7.286 | 8 |
| Phil Eagles (9-7, #6) | 9 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 7.500 | 9 |
| New Orleans (13-3, #1) | 10 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8.429 | 10 |
| Los Angeles Rams (13-3, #2) | 11 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 8.571 | 11 |
| Kansas City (12-4, #1) | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9.500 | 12 |
When sorted just to include the 6 NFC playoff teams:
| NFC Playoff teams defensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| Points | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conversion | Sum | Overall Rank | |
| Chicago Bears (12-4, #3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.286 | 1 |
| Seattle Seahawks (10-6, #5) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3.429 | 2 |
| Dallas Cowboys (10-6, #4) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3.786 | 4 |
| Phil Eagles (9-7, #6) | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3.786 | 4 |
| New Orleans (13-3, #1) | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4.286 | 5 |
| Los Angeles Rams (13-3, #2) | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4.571 | 6 |
When sorted to just include the 6 AFC playoff teams:
| AFC Playoff teams defensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| Points | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conversion | Sum | Overall Rank | |
| Baltimore Ravens (10-6, #4) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2.071 | 1 |
| NE Patriots (11-5, #2) | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3.286 | 3 |
| LA Chargers (12-4, #5) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3.286 | 3 |
| Houston Texans (11-5, #3) | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3.571 | 4 |
| Indianapolis Colts (10-6, #6) | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3.786 | 5 |
| Kansas City (12-4, #1) | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5.286 | 6 |
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears and the Ravens are head and shoulders above everyone else. Those two teams, across the board, by far had the stingiest defenses of any of the playoff teams this year. The Bears, in particular, are 1.3 points ahead of even the Ravens, and gave up the fewest points, the second fewest yards, were #1 in opposing quarterback rating, and rushing yards, and were #2 in third down conversion defense. The differential between the Bears and the other NFC teams was even more pronounced. The Bears’ defense is in a class by itself. The Ravens are clearly the best defense in the AFC, and were #2 behind only the Bears in points and #1 in yards. On the other end of the spectrum, it is very noteworthy that each of the top offensive teams have the three worst defenses. The Saints, Rams, and in particular the Chiefs have the least-successful defenses amongst all playoff teams. The Chiefs have the ironic distinction of achieving the top offensive ranking and the lowest defensive ranking by a healthy margin, which is not normal for most teams, but was similar to the 2017 team.
Rankings summary
This chart shows the combined offensive and defensive rankings for each of the 12 playoff teams, along with the average of both rankings and the difference between the offensive and defensive rankings for each team, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| NFL Playoff teams Average rankings | |||||||
| Offense | Defense | Combined Average | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | |||
| Chicago Bears (12-4, #3) | 8.364 | 2.214 | 5.289 | 1 | 6.149 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens (10-6, #4) | 8.000 | 3.571 | 5.786 | 2 | 4.429 | ||
| Los Angeles Chargers (12-4, #5) | 6.091 | 5.786 | 5.938 | 3 | 0.305 | ||
| Kansas City (12-4, #1) | 3.000 | 9.500 | 6.250 | 4 | 6.500 | ||
| New England Patriots (11-5, #2) | 6.091 | 6.429 | 6.260 | 5 | 0.338 | ||
| New Orleans (13-3, #1) | 4.182 | 8.429 | 6.305 | 6 | 4.247 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts (10-6, #6) | 5.909 | 7.071 | 6.490 | 7 | 1.162 | ||
| Los Angeles Rams (13-3, #2) | 4.455 | 8.571 | 6.513 | 8 | 4.117 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks (10-6, #5) | 6.909 | 7.214 | 7.062 | 9 | 0.305 | ||
| Houston Texans (11-5, #3) | 8.000 | 6.143 | 7.071 | 10 | 1.857 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #6) | 8.000 | 7.500 | 7.750 | 11 | 0.500 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys (10-6, #4) | 9.182 | 7.286 | 8.234 | 12 | 1.896 | ||
When sorted and run just to include the NFC teams, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| NFC Playoff teams Average rankings | |||||||
| Offense | Defense | Combined | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | |||
| Chicago Bears (12-4, #3) | 4.364 | 1.286 | 2.825 | 1 | 3.078 | ||
| New Orleans (13-3, #1) | 2.000 | 4.286 | 3.143 | 2 | 2.286 | ||
| Los Angeles Rams (13-3, #2) | 2.273 | 4.571 | 3.422 | 3 | 2.299 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks (10-6, #5) | 3.545 | 3.429 | 3.487 | 4 | 0.117 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #6) | 4.091 | 3.786 | 3.938 | 5 | 0.305 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys (10-6, #4) | 4.727 | 3.786 | 4.256 | 6 | 0.942 | ||
When sorted and run just to include the AFC teams, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| AFC Playoff teams Average rankings | |||||||
| Offense | Defense | Combined | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | |||
| Baltimore Ravens (10-6, #4) | 4.545 | 2.071 | 3.308 | 1 | 2.474 | ||
| New England Patriots (11-5, #2) | 3.364 | 3.286 | 3.325 | 2 | 0.078 | ||
| Los Angeles Chargers (12-4, #5) | 3.455 | 3.286 | 3.370 | 3 | 0.169 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts (10-6, #6) | 3.273 | 3.786 | 3.529 | 4 | 0.513 | ||
| Kansas City (12-4, #1) | 1.909 | 5.286 | 3.597 | 5 | 3.377 | ||
| Houston Texans (11-5, #3) | 4.455 | 3.571 | 4.013 | 6 | 0.883 | ||
In a bit of a surprise, the Chicago Bears graded out as the most complete team in the playoffs. This isn’t necessarily because they are the best team; what it means is that the are the most consistent across the board. That having been said, they still have a fairly wide disparity compared to leading teans in prior years. The 2018 playoff contenders, in particular the AFC, are for the most part a very hit of miss group. Unlike most years, no one or two teams really stick out above the rest with the most successful offenses and defenses. This means that the AFC tournament is most likely much more wide open than in prior years. It is not a misnomer to suggest that this might finally be the year that the Patriots don’t make it back. New England graded out #2 in the AFC because they were fairly mediocre in both offense and defense, not because they excel in either area. On the NFC side, as you can see, the numbers say that both Dallas and Philadelphia should both have early exits.
Conclusion
I feel obligated to repeat that all of this data isn’t the be-all, end-all of playoff football evaluation. These games must be played on the field, and it is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty even for professional evaluators. But what these rankings do is show the pattern of performance for these teams and gives an indication of which teams should probably do well and which should have early exits. This year is an odd year since so many teams are outstanding in one area, yet poor in another. What can’t be measured by statistics is playoff experience and intangibles, which teams like the Patriots and the Eagles have in spades, and the Bears and Ravens, for example, do not. We hope that this provides you with some additional information to make your playoff experience a bit more enjoyable. Let us know if you have any suggestions.