Alex Smith, through the lens of hindsight one year later
February 5, 2019
by Steve Thomas
It was one year ago this week that the Redskins made their trade for former Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith. In fact, it was one year to the day that I published my initial Alex Smith analysis column. This trade ultimately proved to be ill-fated, as Smith suffered a gruesome, season and career-threatening leg injury in week 11 against the Houston Texans. Smith seems to be a great guy, by all accounts is a quality leader, and led the team to a 6 – 3 record. Given the circumstances, though, the Redskins may now, in hindsight, wished they had gone a different direction.
In his nine and a half games with the Redskins, Smith completed 205 of 328 passes, for a 62.5% completion percentage, 10 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and an 85.7 quarterback rating. Not great numbers, although it is undeniable that Washington was a far better team with him than without him. Given the circumstances, though – which, frankly, includes a slow post-Super Bowl Tuesday – I thought I’d take a quick look at what the Redskins passed on in order to bring in Smith as their quarterback of the here and now, if not the future.
Washington did not draft a quarterback in 2018 on the strength of the players they had on the roster (which at the time included Kevin Hogan, who was not long for DC). Who did the Redskins decline in the draft as a result of this belief? As it turns out, nobody special. The only quarterback who was taken after the Redskins’ #13 pick in round 1 was Lamar Jackson, who was selected by the Ravens with pick 32. I like Jackson’s skills (although he needs to continue to develop his pocket passing ability), but he’s not in the mold favored by Jay Gruden and wasn’t worth the #13 pick. No quarterback was selected in round 2. Washington definitely passed on Mason Rudolph, who was drafted by the Steelers but didn’t take a single snap in 2018. In round 4, the Giants selected Kyle Lauletta one pick before the Redskins took safety Troy Apke, and no other quarterback was selected in that round. The Cowboys selected Mike White eight picks after the Redskins’ selection of Tim Settle in round 5. White didn’t play a single down in 2018. The Redskins passed on Luke Falk from Washington St in round 6, who was selected by the Titans; Falk was waived by the Titans, picked up by the Dolphins, then placed on injured reserve in October. Washington also passed on Tanner Lee, who was taken by the Jaguars but also didn’t take a snap all year. The Redskins passed on quarterback Logan Woodside out of Toledo in round 7. He is now out of the NFL.
The bottom line to the draft is that unless you think that Mason Rudolph could have started for the Redskins in a manner that was more effective than Smith (which is very unlikely), Washington missed nothing by ignoring the quarterback position in the 2018 draft.
What about free agency? Who did the Redskins pass on in favor of the Alex Smith trade? First of all, looking back now, Kirk Cousins was never an option, so he doesn’t count. Drew Brees re-signed with the Saints and Jimmy Garoppolo re-upped in San Francisco. None of those players were ever going to come to Washington.
The Redskins did pass on Case Keenum, who signed with Denver for $36M over 2 years. Keenum started all 16 games for the Broncos, ultimately completing 62.3% of his passes, throwing 18 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, and earning an 81.2 quarterback rating. Keenum isn’t a better quarterback than Smith, but his two year contract with the Broncos is infinitely more appealing than Smith’s cap-demolishing monstrosity.
The only other starting quality quarterbacks who changed hands last year were Teddy Bridgewater, who signed with the Jets and was subsequently traded to the Saints, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, who did the tango with Jameis Winston all season. Both of those players could have come to DC and likely replicated at least some of Smith’s statistics at a fraction of the long-term cost. Bridgewater, in particular, did not play much this year but is expected to be fairly sought after again this offseason. Washington also passed on AJ McCarron, who went to the Bills on a value contract, but if you think McCarron would have been better than either Alex Smith or Colt McCoy, I have a bridge to nowhere to sell you. All of the rest of the quarterbacks signed last offseason were backups at best.
What’s the conclusion here? The Redskins declined to draft Mason Rudolph (no big deal) and did not want Teddy Bridgewater (maybe a mistake), Case Keenum, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don’t think Keenum or Fitzpatrick, at a minimum, would have been able to lead the Redskins to 6 – 3, whereas my opinion of Bridgewater is slightly higher, but the bottom line is that, in hindsight, any of the three would’ve put the Redskins in an infinitely better salary cap position than they are in now, and they’d most likely be looking to draft a quarterback this year like they are anyway. The Redskins might have made the playoffs with Alex Smith; I’m not sure the same can be said for any of the alternatives. All the same, though, the Redskins weren’t winning a championship this year with any of these guys and given how things turned out, the team would have rather had one of the alternatives simply for financial reasons.
I like Alex Smith, and I wish him the best, but history has shown that the team could’ve gone a different direction and ended up in the same place, only with more money to spend.