Five Reasons Why Jay Gruden Won’t Survive 2019

March 27, 2019

by Eric Hill

Jay Gruden isn’t exactly a polarizing figure in DC sports. Sure, he has a few staunch defenders who point to his beautiful passing schemes and lack of help from his bosses, while a handful of harsh critics point out his losing record and stupid face.  The vast majority of Redskins observers, however, view his tenure here with a resounding yawn.

The Redskins front office has been equally lukewarm on Gruden. He has been kept around longer than any other coach under Dan Snyder, but the feeling is that it’s only because they can’t get anyone better.

With leaks coming from Redskins Park recently about Gruden being much less involved in player acquisition this offseason, it seems that the team is finally ready to move on.

Here are five reasons why Jay Gruden is on his way out:

He’s Approaching the Last Season of His Contract.

In early 2017, the Redskins were going through a self-induced PR crisis brought on by the benching of Scot McCloughan for the scouting combine and by leaking that it was related to Scot dabbling a bit too much in the happy juice. At the same time, Jay Gruden was entering the fourth year of his five-year contract. There was rampant speculation that he would be a short timer, as fifth-year head coaches under Dan Snyder are rarer than playoff games under Dan Snyder.

So, facing a front office embarrassment and a lame duck coach, the Redskins killed zero birds with one stone by giving Gruden a contract extension, thinking they could distract the media from the McCloughan debacle by extending the coach they weren’t thrilled with.  Just like how adopting a puppy saves a troubled marriage, everyone magically forgot about the team humiliating its only respected employee and they all lived happily ever after.

The end result of that flatulent pile of dumbassery was the first coaching extension under Dan Snyder.  Jay rewarded this vote of confidence with two sub .500 seasons and a whopping zero playoff appearances.  And here we are, with Jay once again a season away from being a lame duck, which is essentially a lame duck season, like how black Friday now starts on Tuesday.

Will Gruden earn another contract extension?  Short of a Jason Garrett-like 13-3 miracle season, the answer is no.  In fact, if things aren’t trending towards a playoff run in the early going, don’t be surprised to see Jay shown the door early.

Consistent Inconsistency

Jay Gruden is a competent coach.  Even though his run game consists of only two plays—inside zone and inside zone for loss—his passing schemes are highly regarded around the league and many observers give him the benefit of the doubt simply because of the clown show he works for.  He has shown the ability to get the absolute best from his players when the chips are down, such as in the 2017 Seattle game, when he led the team to an improbable win in as hostile an environment as there is despite only suiting up 43 players due to injury (more on that below).

The issue isn’t so much when the chips are down but when the chips are up.  (Side note, I want some chips).  One of the hallmarks of Jay Gruden’s Redskins is the inability to sustain any type of success. The Redskins have had a few winning streaks here and there, but each one has been countered by an equally long losing streak in the same season.  This irritating trend of hot and cold streaks has been Gruden’s M.O. through his five seasons.

The win one, lose one roller coaster has been frustrating, for sure, but even more maddening is the tendency of Gruden’s Redskins to produce an absolute dud on the biggest stage. The primetime curse that seems to have followed Kirk Cousins to Minnesota hasn’t left the Redskins completely, as evidenced by last season’s no-shows on Monday night against the Saints and the Thanksgiving day game against the hated Cowboys. There are times when this team looks completely unprepared to play a football game.  That is 100% on the head coach. If that trend continues, Jay’s time here won’t.

The Injury Bug

It’s easy to say this team is cursed with injuries.  The past two seasons have ended with 20+ players on injured reserve. Some of these injuries can be attributed to bad luck, such as the broken legs suffered by Alex Smith and Colt McCoy, Darrius Guice’s ACL tear and Jordan Reed’s existence.  But the sheer amount of joint strains and muscle tears and over multiple seasons points to a systemic problem with how the team is training.

Gruden has often been maligned for his ‘Club Jay’ training camps, where tough practices are few and far between and sweating is generally frowned upon.  This strategy is highlighted when other, more accomplished teams like the Patriots or Texans come to town for joint practices and out work the Redskins in their own house.

That said, reducing injuries by having 300 pound guys smash into each other more often seems counterintuitive. Maybe Jay is working them too hard and needs to factor in more recovery time.

So, what’s the answer? Tougher practices? Easier practices? More stretching? Jane Fonda workouts?  I don’t know but I don’t get paid $5M per year to watch my guys drop like balls thrown to Josh Doctson either. The only thing I can tell you is that whatever Jay is doing isn’t working.  Gruden needs to get this figured out soon because the injury excuse won’t fly three years in a row.

The Redskins Are Boring

This isn’t all on Gruden. The Redskins draft strategy of building the offensive and defensive lines in the early rounds (which I agree with) isn’t exactly sexy. The team has reduced locker room drama by letting diva players like Robert Griffin III, Desean Jackson and Kirk Cousins walk away, reducing both headaches and headlines. Finally, check down heavy play by Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson last season made watching the offense as exciting as watching paint dry, without the benefit of huffing the fumes.

The lunch pail attitude of this team is refreshing for diehard fans, but the results haven’t been any better than when the team was a soap opera. For all the chatter about improving the trenches, playing physical, removing distractions and getting everyone on the same page, the wins still haven’t come.

In years past, the team’s mediocrity was overshadowed by off the field drama. Dan Snyder is a marketing guy, and as such, he knows there’s no such thing as bad press. Even though the team was finishing in third place, people were talking about the Redskins.

The only thing worse than mediocrity is irrelevance. If Jay can’t generate some sizzle or some steak, he’s not going to be around for dessert.

There Is A Head Coach-In-Waiting Already On The Staff

It’s not a coincidence that Kevin O’Connell was promoted from quarterback coach to passing game coordinator this year. Make no mistake, his job title may not be offensive coordinator, but he will be given game planning and, more likely than not, play calling responsibilities this season while Offensive Coordinator in name only Matt Cavanaugh will remain on as Assistant (to the) Regional Manager.

When Matt LaFluer was recently named head coach of the Packers, he joined Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay on the growing list of former Redskins assistants who became head coaches before the age of 40.  This fact is not lost on the Redskins brass. While they are not the most astute observers of things that make a football team successful, Snyder and Bruce Allen have surely noticed that their staff has been a wellspring of young coaching talent.  Probably.

Once again, the football gods have gifted the Redskins with a young, savvy and respected assistant coach who is viewed as a rising star.  The team will–and should–do whatever it can to keep this one. If Jay gets this team off to a bad start, a move could even be made in season.

Dan Snyder’s cycle of hiring and firing has been held in check for the past five seasons, but Jay Gruden’s inconsistency and lack of results as a head coach could give Snyder reason to dust off the pink slip pad and move on to the next shiny object.