The Industrial Draft Complex
By Jay Evans
April 11, 2019
The Redskins are on the precipice of the greatest draft trade since 1999. In the past twenty years they have attempted many trades, but the possible addition of Arizona Cardinal Josh Rosen for a second-round pick would be the Redskins best draft maneuver since Mike Ditka gave them the Saints’ entire draft for Ricky Williams.
Jimmy Johnson revolutionized the NFL with his “Draft Value Chart” in 1989. Since then every team has placed a premium on the NFL draft and developed their own draft chart because of the success the Cowboys had during the early 90’s.
Hope springs eternal every April. The draft has become the great engine that runs the NFL. Once held in hotel banquet rooms out of the public eye, the NFL draft is now broadcast across multiple networks and multimedia platforms. The first night of the 2018 NFL draft averaged 11.2 million viewers and for the first time ever ABC will broadcast all three days of the 2019 draft.
With greater attention, comes increasing scrutiny and every move thoroughly analyzed. General Eisenhower warned of the military industrial complex. NFL franchises would have been wise to heed such warnings.
We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications…The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists, and will persist.
The worst franchises have a serious problem. They don’t know how to utilize the draft. They fail to accurately evaluate stocks and even when they correctly identify ones of value, the teams often miscalculate their worth.
The traditional manner to build championship rosters is through the draft. The widely respected path requires teams is to wallow for years, slowly collect an abundance of high-end potential prospects in turn, and then rise like a phoenix as a championship competitor.
Arizona needs the draft to facilitate the rebuild, but is failing to adhere to one philosophy. One year, they trade up for their quarterback and the next they are willing to sell the product at fifty cents on the dollar. This incongruent strategy has weakened the infrastructure of the Cardinals and left them as the worst team in the league, drafting first overall.
Josh Rosen is the most recent casualty of the NFL’s “Industrial Draft Complex.” Teams intent on rebuilding invest further capital into the draft, without calculating the estimated costs of the current or future consequences. Teams in the win now approach take full advantage and exploit teams willing to give up on talent early in their development.
The 2018 Cardinals were one of the most talent-bereft teams in the league last season. They sacrificed three picks for their current quarterback. A steep price considering the team had deficiencies at every level. They fired their offensive coordinator halfway through the season and finished last in every major offensive category, including team offensive efficiency. The Cardinals went 3-13 and head coach Steve Wilks was done after one season.
Driven by a bad driver and maintained by a poor mechanic, Josh is now a used car in Arizona’s garage. His value began to diminish the moment he was drafted. Now he’s back on the market with the price slashed in half.
When shiny and undriven, Josh was an A+ talent, possibly the best quarterback in the 2018 draft, worthy of a first, a third, and a fifth-round picks. Using a recent trade value chart, the three picks the Cardinals traded were valued at 1275 points (15th pick-1050 points, 79th-200, 152nd-30). Josh was roughly worth 1300 pts or the equivalent of the tenth overall pick where the Cardinals drafted him.
Reports of the trade for Rosen involve the Redskins second-round pick this year, a future third, and an undercoating package. According to the draft chart, the 46th pick is worth 440 points and a pick in the middle of the round three is roughly 210 points. Josh Rosen’s value in one year has effectively dropped by 650 points, half his initial worth, or roughly the value of the 27th overall pick. Whether or not Josh Rosen ever lives up to the hype, the Redskins would double the value of their picks in the event of this trade alone.
The Redskins represent a significant upgrade for Josh Rosen in terms of talent and stability. A solid foundation includes a stable group of running backs to keep a young quarterback safe and a burgeoning young defense to keep opposing offenses from controlling the game. The Redskins had fourteen different offensive linemen and the Cardinals managed to surrender eight more sacks than the Redskins in 2018.
Josh Rosen struggled during his first year with poor management and an awful supporting cast. Kyler Murray, the expected first overall draft pick played for Kliff Kingsbury, the new Cardinals head coach, in college at Oklahoma.
The Cardinals being enamored with Kyler just one year after choosing a first-round quarterback is a failure of an entire organization to assess value. Based on what it cost to draft Josh, it is fiscally irresponsible to entertain the idea the Cardinals are seemingly intent upon making – but who are the Redskins to stop the Cardinals from making poor investments?
The great draft machine is not going to slow for either team and the opportunity comes around only once a year. If the Redskins are to ever pull out of their middling nature they have to manipulate the draft with impunity. The Redskins have to seize the opportunity to acquire a franchise quarterback for below market value. It is a deal too good to pass up.