The Kids are Alright

May 10, 2019

By Jay Evans

The Redskins youth movement has been growing for quite some time. In the past five seasons the team has drafted 46 players (including one supplemental draft pick). 27 of those draftees are likely to open the season on the 53-man roster and the number of homegrown, drafted players on the roster could be as many as 30 come September. The emphasis to get the roster younger has been clear and it’s time to start seeing the results of those drafts on the field.

The 2015 roster is a good example of the team’s typical roster construction. They had a top five draft pick and selected who the Redskins hoped was going to be a franchise tackle in Brandon Scherff. The unexpected improvement of second year right tackle Morgan Moses allowed Scherff to move to guard where he has been a pro bowl player ever since. Although only one player remains from 2015, the rest of the draft produced solid depth players and is viewed as an overall successful draft.

However, Brandon Scherff is the only player remaining on the Redskins roster, even though seven of the ten draft picks from that draft are still in the league. Two of those picks signed substantial contracts in free agency and the three players not on rosters last season were sixth-round selections. One of those sixth-round selections, Kyshoen Jarrett, showed tons of promise in his rookie season, but his career was cut short due to a horrific spinal injury. In a feel-good story, Kyshoen was hired this week as the Redskins’ new defensive quality control coach and remains with the team.

One of the arguments for the lack of success in recent seasons is that the Redskins haven’t been able to land the “stars” of the draft. However, the biggest defense of recent Redskins drafts has been their ability to mine capable players throughout the 7 rounds.

Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap analyzed NFL teams and their draft prowess over the past four drafts. The Redskins ranked as the seventh best “hit rate” at 83.3% over that time despite ranking as the fourth lowest “expected hit rate” with a 73.1%. In other words, the Redskins have selected players who outperform expectations and finished first in overall success rate. Winning off the field!

Most impressive about the Redskins draft “hit rate” grade is the weighted property of the score. Missing on a top pick would significantly penalize the score and hitting on late round picks wouldn’t necessarily mean huge positive swings. The Redskins might not have been finding the future stars of the NFL, but the team hasn’t been wildly missing either and in turn have built substantial depth.

The full analysis can be found here.

The OtC report reveals something else significant…the Redskins haven’t been playing these prospects. The Skins are drafting well and making smart depth picks, yet the playing time seen by young players ranks in the bottom five of the league with a 25.7% “expected playtime.” Even more confounding, in 2018, the Redskins ranked seventh with a 28.1% playtime experience, with a positive 9.2% in “playtime performance.” The Redskins have managed the snaps of young players until they are able to be successful and once they are thrust into live games the results have revealed the young players are responding accordingly.

The kids are all right.

But I know sometimes I must get out in the light

Better leave her behind with the kids, they’re alright

The kids are alright

A similar approach is likely to be taken with the 2019 draft class. Only edge defender Montez Sweat, replacing Preston Smith who departed in the offseason for Green Bay, has a clear path to significant playing time.

Quarterback Dwayne Haskins could start his NFL career on the sideline as he adjusts to the NFL and fellow Ohio State teammate Terry McLaurin will need to earn playing time in a crowded yet unspectacular receiving group.

One of the two offensive lineman selected in the fourth round, Wes Martin or Ross Pierschbacher, could see time on the offensive line as well, but the fact is the majority of the selections are likely to sit and grow.

The team seems to have made a conscious effort to draft players a year prior to their need to make an impact on the field. For example, the Redskins selected Josh Doctson in the first round of the 2016 draft when it wasn’t an apparent need since they still had both Pierre Garçon and Desean Jackson on the roster. It was a seemingly questionable yet shrewd move at the time, as there were more apparent needs on the roster at the time. Both Garcon and Jackson were on the last years of their contracts, and when they left via free agency there was a replacement on the roster.

Defensive backs Fabian Moreau, Montae Nicholson, Adonis Alexander, and Greg Stroman have all been selected in the past three years with the expectation that their services would not be required in year one. Some have seen the field sooner than others and to varying degrees of success. The Redskins need to see these players in action, especially with openings in the secondary especially in the base nickel and dime defense where multiple cornerbacks are deployed.

Two players drafted in 2018, Geron Christian and Troy Apke, were selected in similar fashion. After a “red-shirt” year the players will be expected to contribute in their second campaigns. The Redskins need to replace last year’s swing tackle, Ty Nskehe, and fill a hole opposite safety Landon Collins in the secondary. After these two players, who were consecutive picks in the third and fourth rounds, finished last year on injured reserve it won’t be certain how effective they can be until they are on the field in situations that matter.

These are the young players who are going to receive plenty of opportunities in training camp and who could see significant playing time this season filling holes on the depth chart. The majority of these young players have special teams duties as well and while they don’t get the attention that starters on offense and defense do, their improvements are vital to an average team becoming good. They are the difference makers that propel a good team to becoming great.

The best teams operate in similar fashion. Teams have to proactively retool their rosters and stay ahead of impending free agent contracts. The salary cap is too prohibitive to rely on free agents and big name first round draft picks. Teams that are able to draft effectively and remain flexible in their roster construction will always retain a strict advantage.

The Over the Cap report is a nice snap shot at the efficiency at which the Redskins, as well as the rest of the league, have been in their recent years at scouting and projecting talent. If the Redskins front office is going to continue to soak up the national media’s effusive praise for a successful draft then only one step remains. Let the kids play.