What’s the Realistic Ceiling for the 2019 Redskins? Part 1: Offense

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August 22, 2019

by Steve Thomas

We all have our preconceived notions at the start of each year of what’s going to happen to the Redskins, mostly affected by years of discouraging results and silly, pointless drama that seemingly happens every single season.  Without being overly pessimistic (you know who you are) or a hopeless, non-rational optimist (you folks know who you are, too), what’s the ceiling for this group of Redskins? Meaning, if things stay more or less on course, players pan out, and the grim reaper packs up his black cloud and leaves Ashburn, how good can they be?  Let’s take our best guess.

Quarterbacks

Based on what we’ve seen, I don’t think it’s feasible to expect Dwayne Haskins to be ready to play at the beginning of the season.  For his part, Case Keenum hasn’t really showed much in the two preseason games thusfar, but by all accounts has clearly been the best in practice.   With all apologies to Colt McCoy, a player with a never-healing broken leg who has a history of injuries isn’t ideal.  However, I think it isn’t too much of a leap to see Haskins taking over the job at some point during the season (yes, I’ve said on the air that I’d prefer him to just sit the entire year; this the best case scenario, not what I want, so leave me alone).  What can we expect?  To figure this out with some sort of objectivity, here’s a bit of data for you – over the past 10 seasons, only 9 quarterbacks who’ve had over 150 pass attempts in their rookie year have had a quarterback rating of 85 or more:

  • Dak Prescott, Dallas, 2016, 16 games, 16 starts, 459 attempts, 104.9 rating
  • Deshaun Watson, Houston, 2017, 7 games, 6 starts, 204 attempts, 103.0 rating
  • Robert Griffin, Washington, 2012, 15 games, 15 starts, 393 attempts, 102.4 rating
  • Russell Wilson, Seattle, 2012, 16 games, 16 starts, 393 attempts, 100.0 rating
  • Baker Mayfield, Cleveland, 2018, 14 games, 13 starts, 486 attempts, 93.7 rating
  • Cody Kessler, Cleveland, 2016, 9 games, 8 starts, 195 attempts, 92.3 rating
  • Marcus Mariota, Tennessee, 2015, 12 games, 12 starts, 370 attempts, 91.5 rating
  • Nick Mullens, San Fransisco, 2018, 8 games, 8 starts, 274 attempts, 90.8 rating
  • Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota, 2014, 13 games, 12 starts, 402 attempts, 85.2 rating

Over that same time span, 14 rookie quarterbacks have passed for more than 3,000 yards, the top 5 being Andrew Luck (2012; 4,374), Cam Newton (2011; 4,051), Jameis Winston (2015; 4,042), Carson Wentz (2016; 3,782), and Mayfield (2018; 3,725).  The Redskins’ own Robert Griffin had 3,200 yards in 2012.

Finally, only 6 rookie quarterbacks between 2009 and 2018 have an interception percentage of less than 2.00% on the season with at least 150 pass attempts, Prescott (0.87%), Kessler (1.03%), Jeff Driskel (Cincinnati, 2018, 176 attempts, 1.14%), Griffin (1.27%), Lamar Jackson (Baltimore, 2018, 170 attempts, 1.76%), and Nick Foles (Philadephia, 2012, 265 attempts, 1.89%).

The Redskins have Pro Bowlers in the tight end group, but a bunch of possibly talented players but mostly question marks in the receiver group, and an all of a sudden shaky offensive line.  Given those conditions, it seems like a tall order to expect Haskins to perform in the categories I’ve laid out above.  I think his realistic ceiling this year is probably 8 starts, a quarterback rating of somewhere in the 80s, 2000 yards, and an interception percentage somewhere between 2 – 3%.

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson’s 2018 production – 251 carries, 1,042 yards, 4.2 yards per attempt, was arguably the second best season in NFL history for a running back age 33 or more (Click here to see the evidence).  At least based on his game against the Bengals last week, I see no reason why he can’t do that again unless the offensive line craters (which is possible).  We all love Derrius Guice and he seems to have all the potential in the world, but at the end of the day, he hasn’t been cleared to play yet, he’s going to have to split carries with Peterson, and we haven’t actually seen him take a regular season snap.  What’s the realistic ceiling for Derrius?  If Peterson stays healthy, I think 100 carries and 4.5 yards per carry is still possible.  If, god forbid, Peterson goes down early, Guice could realistically end up with over 1,000 yards and at least 4.0 yards per carry, a feat 11 rookie running backs and 30 first or second year backs have accomplished.  As to the rest of this group? Chris Thompson staying healthy and returning to his 2016 form is possible, but seems unlikely. Anyone else’s production is a total guess.

Wide Receivers

This is a very difficult group to forecast, because the best case scenario depends on a number of things, starting with the performance of the quarterback.  Realistically, Terry McClaurin is probably the starter at the “X” spot, Paul Richardson Jr., will be at the “Z”, and Trey Quinn will be in the slot.  The idea that a rookie receiver is going to get 1,000 yards is pretty far-fetched, so McClaurin getting between 50 – 60 balls and 750 yards is probably the ceiling.  Richardson’s ceiling is very much dependent on his health, because his injury history is sub-optimal.  If he can stay on the field for all 16 ganes, the sky’s the limit, because he has the speed and route-running ability to be an elite, Pro Bowl-level player.  Don’t hold your breath on that one, though.  As far as Quinn goes, he’s essentially a rookie playing out of the slot, so his ceiling probably doesn’t include huge numbers.  Quinn ending up with 50 catches would be a significant accomplishment

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed is an All-Pro level talent.  He’s a complete mismatch, has hands of glue, and the Redskins’ offense runs through him.  However, I’m sorry to burst anyone’s bubble here, but he’s just not going to play 16 games.  The surest things in life are the sunrise, taxes, and Jordan Reed’s annual serious injury.  He’s never played 16 games in his entire career, and regardless of how good he’s looked in the preseason so far, I have no reason to think that he can change fate and play an entire season.  His realistic ceiling is his 2015 season: 14 games played, 114 targets, 87 receptions, 952 yards, and 11 touchdowns.  The odds of Reed exceeding that are slim.  As far as the rest of the group goes, the chance that that the 35 year old Vernon Davis is going to post more than 40 carries even in the best circumstances seems small as well.  His ceiling is 40 receptions and 600 yards.

Offensive Line

Offensive line is obviously the hardest group to forecast because they put up no stats.  I refuse to engage in absurd, useless PFF rankings comparisons, because those rankings are essentially fraudulent.  To me, the best case scenario is abundantly obvious: (1) Pro Bowler Trent Williams ends his pathetic pouting session holdout and returns to assume the starting left tackle position, and (2) Ereck Flowers actually looked pretty decent at left guard, outplaying his competition, rookie Wes Martin.  The ceiling for this group is 16 games of health from, going left to right, Trent Williams, Ereck Flowers, Chase Roullier, Brandon Scherff, and Morgan Moses, with Martin learning and becoming ready to take over the starting role next year.  If that happens, the run game will open up and life will generally be significantly easier for this offense.  So without engaging his silly ratings predictions, that’s my prediction for a realistic ceiling for this group.

We’ll do the defense and my overall record prediction next week in part 2.