2020 NFL Playoff Preview
January 3, 2019
by Steve Thomas and Jamual Forrest
For those of you who haven’t read our playoff previews in years past, we first provide the basics of the schedule and an overview of each of the four wildcard games. Beyond that, in order to give you a somewhat objective picture of each team’s playoff chances (rather than the useless and ubiquitous subjective “power rankings”), we developed a system wherein we list objective rankings for each of the twelve playoff teams in a number of different important offensive and defensive statistics, as compared to just the playoff teams, meaning that, on both offense and defense, we’ve listed the 1 through 12 rankings for each team for a number of different categories, all of which are listed at the top of each chart. For example, the Ravens have the number 1 in the offense chart for the “points” column, meaning that Baltimore is the top-scoring offense in this year’s playoffs. As was the case last year, we’ve tweaked the various ranked statistics that we used in last year’s preview. I’ve described some of the changes below. Then, we averaged all of the offensive and defensive statistics to provide one number for each team – the lower the overall number, the better. We’ve sorted each chart by overall rank order, from lowest ranking (meaning, best) to highest ranking (meaning, worst). This method doesn’t necessarily show the “best” team, or serve as a prediction, per se, but it demonstrates which teams are the most complete and capable based on their regular season statistical results. Usually, one or two teams really stick out, and these rankings normally get pretty close to how the games actually turn out. Hopefully, the results will give you an idea of which teams are most primed and ready to face off for the Super Bowl title.
Isn’t this better than a simple list of power rankings? I hope so. It’s long, but please bear with us to the end if you can, even though it’s yet another case of The Hog Sty (really, just Steve) drowning you in numbers.
If this is all way too much for you and you want the bottom line, first glance at the schedule, then continue with Jamual’s Wild Card Matchup Preview, read that, and then go to the “Rankings Summary” section at the bottom of the page.
2020 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Wild Card Weekend Divisional Weekend
Saturday, Jan. 4 Saturday, Jan. 11
4:35 p.m. ET – Bills (#5) at Texans (#4) (ESPN) 4:35 p.m. ET – #4/#5/#6 at 49ers (#1) (NBC)
8:15 p.m. ET – Titans (#6) at Patriots (#3) (CBS) 8:15 p.m. ET – #4/#5/#6 at Ravens (#1) (CBS)
Sunday, Jan. 5 Sunday, Jan. 12
1:05 p.m. ET – Vikings (#6) at Saints (#3) (Fox) 3:05 p.m. ET – #3/#4/#5 at Chiefs (#2) (CBS)
4:40 p.m. ET – Seahawks (#5) at Eagles (#4) (NBC) 6:40 p.m. ET – #3/#4/#5 at Packers (#2) (Fox)
Championship Weekend Super Bowl
Sunday, Jan. 19 Sunday, Feb. 2
3:05 p.m. ET – AFC (CBS) 6:30 p.m. ET – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida (Fox)
6:40 p.m. ET – NFC (Fox) TV Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink, Chris Meyers, Mike Pereira
Super Bowl Halftime show: Jennifer Lopez, Shakira
JAMUAL’S WILD CARD MATCHUP PREVIEW
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
The Seahawks travel to Philadelphia to face off against the Eagles for a second time this season. The first game was messy, with seven turnovers between the two teams; however, Seattle forced five Eagle’ turnovers. Carson Wentz had four of his team turnovers, so there will be an evident focus on protecting the football for Philadelphia. For Seattle, what has worked best this year, besides Russell Wilson himself, is their overall balance offensively. They pass the football among the least amount times in the NFL, yet they are the top half of the league in production. Additionally, they run the football amongst the most in the NFL and are top four in production. It will be a strength of theirs heading into the wild card weekend. However, what Seattle does best offensively caters to the strengths of the Eagles defense. Eagles have a top three rush defense that has been consistently good all season. It should be noted that Philadelphia gave up nearly 175 rushing yards to the Seahawks in their first matchup. For either team to advance, it will come down to the quarterback play and their offensive lines. Whichever team can control the line of scrimmage and protect its quarterback will be most successful. Furthermore, whichever quarterback can take advantage of their offensive lines’ good play by extending drives, converting in opponents’ territory, and protecting the football will lead their team to a victory this weekend.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have made the playoffs four times in the last five years under head coach Bill O’Brien and two straight years behind the spectacular play of quarterback Deshaun Watson. On the other end, Buffalo has made the playoffs two of the first three years under head coach Sean McDermott, who has seemingly turned around the Buffalo Bills. Defense travels, and in the case of the Buffalo Bills, they will pose a significant challenge for the Houston Texans. The Bills boast a top-three defense in yards allowed, and a top ten defense in turnovers forced and sacks. Although the nature of Watson’s game plays a factor, Houston has notoriously struggled to protect its quarterback. Watson has been sacked 44 times this season, which is sixth-most in the NFL. Time of possession will be crucial for a Houston Texans victory. In the Bills two most significant losses against the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots, both teams were able to dominate the time of possession against Buffalo. The ability to control the clock and keep the Bills defense on the field for 37 minutes (the average of the two games) has proven to lessen the effectiveness of their defense. To me, his game will be all about how Houston attacks this solid Bills defense.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
The Patriots are in trouble. With a significant let down in week 17, losing to the Miami Dolphins in a game that clinched a bye week, the “great” New England defense touted by the national media, failed the Patriots in multiple spots this past Sunday. It is not to say they will lose against Tennessee, and the Patriots still do great things that do not play in the Titans favor. Though the Titans boast the third-best rush offense, teams have run on the Patriots the fifth-fewest times in the NFL this year. The Patriots’ ability to get quick leads on teams gets them away from a balanced gameplan. The key for the Titans heading into this game will be protecting the football, limiting mistakes, and staying on the field by converting on third downs. The Patriots are number one in third down defense, and this can create opportunities for the Patriots to have a shortened field for their offense. The simple fact that the Patriots are playing at home creates a mental disadvantage for their opponents – not many teams beat New England in Foxboro, and it is even worse in the playoffs. Tom Brady has played his best football this season and the team is vulnerable, but can the Titans capitalize?
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are back for their third-straight playoff appearance. In terms of luck, the Saints have had the worst of it the past two years – can they finally get past that this season? The Minnesota Vikings are first-up for the Saints this year. Kirk Cousins is entering his first playoff game with the Vikings, and he is looking to get past some of his football demons. The Saints are one of, if not the most, efficient passing and scoring teams in the NFL this year. Drew Brees and Michael Thomas have become a duo that creates headaches for opposing defenses and their coordinators. Though the Vikings are top five in points allowed, what has kept them from being considered dominant on the defensive side of the ball, is matching an offenses physicality. The Saints offense brings a ton of physicality, and that will pose an excellent challenge for Minnesota. Assuming the trends do not stop here in this playoff game, the Vikings offense will have to keep pace with New Orleans, and with running back Dalvin Cook expected to start, they have a good chance. Cousins has played well for the majority of the season, but his biggest issue throughout his career has been making that one big mistake that compromises his football team. Kirk must be able to stay within the Vikings’ gameplan, which usually revolves around the short game and getting the ball quickly to his playmakers and protecting the football while doing so. There will be an occasional “shot” play by the Vikings, but Kirk must avoid the blind prayer of a throw that kills drives before they start. Can Kirk and his offense keep up with the Saints offense this week?
ANALYSIS OF SCHEDULE & WIN-LOSS RECORDS
The records for each of the playoff teams on the season, in their last 8 games, and their current win – loss streak are:
San Francisco 49ers (#1): 13 – 3; 6 – 2; W2 Baltimore Ravens (#1): 14 – 2; 8 – 0; W12
Green Bay Packers (#2): 13 – 3; 6 – 2; W5 Kansas City Chiefs (#2): 12 – 4; 7 – 1; W6
New Orleans Saints (#3): 13 – 3; 6 – 2; W3 New England Patriots (#3): 12 – 4; 4 – 4; L1
Philadelphia Eagles (#4): 9 – 7; 5 – 3; W4 Houston Texans (#4): 10 – 6; 5 – 3; L1
Seattle Seahawks (#5): 11 – 5; 5 – 3; L2 Buffalo Bills (#5): 10 – 6; 4 – 4; L2
Minnesota Vikings (#6): 10 – 6; 4 – 4; L2 Tennessee Titans (#6): 9 – 7; 5 – 3; W1
What sticks out from this data is that the Raven have been on an epic-level roll, with the Chiefs not too far behind. The Ravens haven’t lost a game since September 29 against the Cleveland Browns (???? Nobody’s perfect, I guess). The other thing that is noticeable is that the Patriots had an uncharacteristic swoon, at least by their standards, going only .500 in the second half of the season. There’s nothing too extraordinary about the NFC data, except that Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are the teams that played the most poorly in the second half of the season, with a 4 – 4 record. The Packers own the NFC’s most impressive win streak, having won their last 5 games in a row.
The next table shows the number of games each team played against winning teams this season versus the number of games played against winning teams that each team won this season and the number of road wins:
| NFL Playoff teams regular season schedule info | ||||
| # gms plyd against winning tms | # gms won against winning tms | Road Wins | Streak | |
| San Francisco (13-3, #1) | 7 | 5 | 7 | W2 |
| Baltimore Ravens (14-2, #1) | 7 | 6 | 7 | W12 |
| Green Bay Packers (13-3, #2) | 5 | 3 | 6 | W5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, #2) | 6 | 3 | 7 | W6 |
| New Orleans Saints (13-3, #3) | 4 | 3 | 7 | W3 |
| New England Patriots (12-4, #3) | 6 | 3 | 6 | L1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #4) | 5 | 2 | 4 | W4 |
| Houston Texans (10-6, #4) | 6 | 3 | 5 | L1 |
| Seattle Seahawks (11-5, #5) | 8 | 4 | 7 | L2 |
| Buffalo Bills (10-6, #5) | 5 | 1 | 6 | L2 |
| Minnesota Vikings (10-6, #6) | 5 | 1 | 4 | L2 |
| Tennessee Titans (9-7, #6) | 5 | 2 | 5 | W1 |
It isn’t a surprise that the Ravens are the NFL’s top team against opponents that finished the season with winning records and on the road. They played 7 games against winning teams, with 6 victories, and won 7 road games. The 49ers, who are tops in the NFC by these measures, also won 7 road games and played 7 games against winning teams, but only won 5 of those contests. The big outliers on the negative side of things are the Bills, Eagles, and Titans. The Bills played 5 games against winning teams but won just 1 of those games, whereas the Eagles and Titans both played 5 but won just 2, which doesn’t bode well for their chances for deep playoff runs. The Chiefs, Patriots, Texans, and Seahawks were each just .500 against winning teams, suggesting they may be vulnerable in the playoffs as well. The Packers and Saints both had winning records in games against teams that finished the season with winning records.
OFFENSE ANALYSIS
The following chart shows the offensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 12 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| NFL Playoff teams offensive rankings | ||||||||||||||
| wPts | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rtg | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Time of poss | Ave | Overall Rank | |
| Baltimore Ravens (14-2, #1) | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3.308 | 1 |
| San Francisco (13-3, #1) | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 4.231 | 2 |
| New Orleans Saints (13-3, #3) | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4.692 | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, #2) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 5.615 | 4 |
| Seattle Seahawks (11-5, #5) | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6.000 | 5 |
| Tennessee Titans (9-7, #6) | 8 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 6.154 | 6 |
| Minnesota Vikings (10-6, #6) | 6 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 6.538 | 7 |
| Houston Texans (10-6, #4) | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 7.154 | 8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #4) | 9 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7.231 | 9 |
| New England Patriots (12-4, #3) | 5 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 8.154 | 10 |
| Green Bay Packers (13-3, #2) | 11 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 8.692 | 11 |
| Buffalo Bills (10-6, #5) | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 10.231 | 12 |
The “Ave” column is the key stat in each chart. It shows the average of each team’s rankings for all of the categories shown. The idea is that is gives one a snapshot of how good each playoff team is as compared to the other playoff teams, from a statistical perspective. Obviously, the lower the better. Lower is good; higher is bad.
One additional note: “wPts” stands for “Weighted Points”. I tweaked the formula this year as compared to last year’s preview from a straight average of all of the categories to give “Points Scored” double weight as compared to the rest of the categories in recognition of the fact that points scored is obviously the most important factor for any offense. All of the stats have merit, but rest of these measurables in some way describe how a team scores points, which is the end goal.
This data shows that, from a statistical perspective, the Baltimore Ravens have the overall top ranked offense in the playoffs, and it isn’t close. They are the #1 ranked team in every rushing category, in no small measure due to the incredible talent of quarterback Lamar Jackson. The only area in which they lag is total passing yards, but from an on-field perspective, that is offset by their great ability to run the ball. The 49ers and the Saints are in the second tier, with San Francisco being are a distant second to Baltimore.
The middle tier of the offensive rankings are the Chiefs, Seahawks, Titans, and Vikings.
Buffalo is by far the lowest ranked offensive team in the playoffs. As measured here, they look like they don’t belong, but keep reading to see how they stack on defensively.
The team that really sticks out here as compared to their season record and playoff seeding is the Green Bay Packers. Surprisingly, in spite of the presence of future hall of famer Aaron Rodgers, this team is ranked in the lower-middle in most categories, and 11th overall. This is unusual for a 13 – 3 team seeded 3rd.
When sorted to just include the 6 NFC playoff teams:
| NFC Playoff teams offensive rankings | ||||||||||||||
| wPts | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rtg | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Time of poss | Ave | Overall Rank | |
| San Francisco (13-3, #1) | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.385 | 1 |
| New Orleans Saints (13-3, #3) | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2.923 | 2 |
| Seattle Seahawks (11-5, #5) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3.538 | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings (10-6, #6) | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3.538 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #4) | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.846 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers (13-3, #2) | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4.769 | 6 |
As I said above, the real surprise here is the Packers, who are ranked last in the offensive rankings by a wide margin, including in the passing rankings despite the presence of Rodgers. The 49ers are far and away the NFC’s top overall offense. They aren’t great in the red zone (ranked 6th of 6), and their time of possession isn’t great, but they score the most points, have the most rushing yards and the third-best passing yardage. The Saints, in second place featuring the top-ranked Drew Brees-led passing attack, are a cut above the remaining teams. The Seahawks, Vikings, and Eagles are a closely-ranked hodge-podge in the middle.
When sorted to just include the 6 AFC playoff teams:
| AFC Playoff teams offensive rankings | ||||||||||||||
| wPts | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rating | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Time of poss | Ave | Overall Rank | |
| Baltimore Ravens (14-2, #1) | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.077 | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, #2) | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3.000 | 2 |
| Tennessee Titans (9-7, #6) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3.231 | 3 |
| Houston Texans (10-6, #4) | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.538 | 4 |
| New England Patriots (12-4, #3) | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4.154 | 5 |
| Buffalo Bills (10-6, #5) | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5.000 | 6 |
The Ravens are the class of the AFC (and the entire NFL) on offensive, being ranked #1 or #2 in the conference in every category except passing yards, passing yards per attempt, and completion percentage. Regardless, Jackson is still highly effect as a passer, as evidenced by the Ravens’ first-place ranking in the AFC in quarterback rating. The Chiefs are a distant second to the Ravens, whereas the Bills are the last place offense in the conference by a wide margin.
DEFENSE ANALYSIS
The following chart shows the defensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 12 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole:
| NFL Playoff teams defensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| wPts | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Ave | Overall Rank | |
| New England Patriots (12-4, #3) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2.600 | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens (14-2, #1) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 4.467 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills (10-6, #5) | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4.667 | 3 |
| San Francisco (13-3, #1) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 4.867 | 4 |
| New Orleans Saints (13-3, #3) | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 6.400 | 6 |
| Minnesota Vikings (10-6, #6) | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6.400 | 6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #4) | 10 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6.533 | 7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, #2) | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 6.867 | 8 |
| Green Bay Packers (13-3, #2) | 7 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 7.733 | 9 |
| Tennessee Titans (9-7, #6) | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 8.133 | 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks (11-5, #5) | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10.200 | 11 |
| Houston Texans (10-6, #4) | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 10.400 | 12 |
Defensively, it’s the New England Patriots and then everyone else. As they’ve been all season, the Patriots are the class of the NFL in overall defense. Statistically, they are without peer in nearly every category except interception percentage. This is a dominant defense that has saved the Patriots in a down offensive year. They are #1 amongst all playoff teams in points, yards, passing touchdowns, quarterback rating, rushing touchdowns, and third down conversions. As you will see below, New England is so dominant that it saves their overall ranking despite their poor offensive numbers.
The Ravens, Bills, and 49ers are all closely ranked in the second tier down behind the Patriots.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks and Texans are by far the worst defensive teams in the playoffs. One or the other of those teams are ranked either last or second to last in every defensive category except completion percentage and interception percentage. Those two teams just don’t match up and look like they don’t belong in this group.
When sorted just to include the 6 NFC playoff teams:
| NFC Playoff teams defensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| wPts | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Ave | Overall Rank | |
| San Francisco (13-3, #1) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2.533 | 1 |
| Minnesota Vikings (10-6, #6) | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3.133 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #4) | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3.333 | 3 |
| New Orleans Saints (13-3, #3) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3.400 | 4 |
| Green Bay Packers (13-3, #2) | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3.667 | 5 |
| Seattle Seahawks (11-5, #5) | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5.133 | 6 |
In the NFC, the 49ers are clearly ranked #1, but all of the rest of the playoff teams except the Seahawks are closely ranked, meaning those defenses have had roughly the same amount of overall success. Seattle is in last place in the conference by a wide margin.
When sorted to just include the 6 AFC playoff teams:
| AFC Playoff teams defensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| wPts | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Ave | Overall Rank | |
| New England Patriots (12-4, #3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.533 | 1 |
| Buffalo Bills (10-6, #5) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2.800 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens (14-2, #1) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2.933 | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, #2) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4.267 | 4 |
| Tennessee Titans (9-7, #6) | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4.733 | 5 |
| Houston Texans (10-6, #4) | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5.333 | 6 |
The gap in the defensive rankings between the Patriots and everyone else in the AFC is even more pronounced when compared to just the AFC. As I said above, the Patriots have the best defense in the conference. It is so good that it might just carry them to yet another Super Bowl if they can figure out how to slow down Lamar Jackson.
It’s merely a statistical coincidence resulting from the fewer number of teams in the AFC as compared to the NFL as a whole that the Bills and Ravens are statistically tied in third place in the NFL rankings, yet the Bills are slightly ahead of the Ravens in the AFC rankings. Those two defenses are basically evenly matched in terms of overall success.
The Texans defense is way behind all of their AFC competition.
RANKINGS SUMMARY
This chart shows the combined offensive and defensive rankings for each of the 12 playoff teams, along with the average of both rankings and the difference between the offensive and defensive rankings for each team, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| NFL Playoff Teams Average Rankings | |||||||
| Offense | Defense | Combined Average | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | |||
| Baltimore Ravens (14-2, #1) | 3.308 | 4.467 | 3.887 | 1 | 1.159 | ||
| San Francisco (13-3, #1) | 4.231 | 4.867 | 4.549 | 2 | 0.636 | ||
| New England Patriots (12-4, #3) | 8.154 | 2.600 | 5.377 | 3 | 5.554 | ||
| New Orleans Saints (13-3, #3) | 4.692 | 6.400 | 5.546 | 4 | 1.708 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, #2) | 5.615 | 6.867 | 6.241 | 5 | 1.251 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings (10-6, #6) | 6.538 | 6.400 | 6.469 | 6 | 0.138 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #4) | 7.231 | 6.533 | 6.882 | 7 | 0.697 | ||
| Tennessee Titans (9-7, #6) | 6.154 | 8.133 | 7.144 | 8 | 1.979 | ||
| Buffalo Bills (10-6, #5) | 10.231 | 4.667 | 7.449 | 9 | 5.564 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks (11-5, #5) | 6.000 | 10.200 | 8.100 | 10 | 4.200 | ||
| Green Bay Packers (13-3, #2) | 8.692 | 7.733 | 8.213 | 11 | 0.959 | ||
| Houston Texans (10-6, #4) | 7.154 | 10.400 | 8.777 | 12 | 3.246 | ||
This chart combines each team’s offensive and defensive average rankings to show how each team stacks up against the competition. The last column, “Diff btwn off & def” shows the difference between each team’s offensive and defensive rankings to give you an idea as to how balanced, or not balanced, each team has been this season.
Drum roll please………
The Baltimore Ravens are the top statistically ranked team in the playoffs and are therefore my favorite to win the Super Bowl. They have the #1 offense and are tied with the Bills for the second-best defense, so it’s no surprise that they came out on top of the overall rankings. The 49ers are in overall second place, which also should surprise no one. Interestingly, the difference between their offensive and defensive numbers are actually less than that of the Ravens, but since both of the 49ers rankings are lower than the Ravens’ rankings, the difference is irrelevant.
The team that should first jump off the page at you is New England – notice that the gap between their offensive and defensive rankings is the second largest of any team in the playoffs as a result of their relatively poor offense and top ranked, dominant defense. Their defense is so good that it actually brought their overall ranking up to #3 despite having the 10th ranked offense. They will be an interesting team to keep an eye on, because as the old saying goes, defense wins championships.
Three teams look like they don’t belong, at least statistically: the Seahawks, Packers, and Texans. The Packers 11th place ranking is very surprising given that they are the #2 seed in the NFC and went 13 – 3 in the season. However, take a look at the Packers win streak listed at the top of the page – they’ve won 5 in a row, although only one game came against a team with a winning record. The Packers are mostly likely a situation where the overall season analysis doesn’t do them justice since they’ve had much better results toward the end of the season. This is why I included the record analysis at the beginning of the column. As to the Texans, they aren’t a competitive playoff team. They might get past Buffalo, but that’s most likely the end of the road for them. The Seahawks will probably suffer the same fate.
When sorted and run just to include the NFC teams, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| NFC Playoff teams Average rankings | ||||||||
| Offense | Defense | Combined | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | ||||
| San Francisco (13-3, #1) | 2.385 | 2.533 | 2.459 | 1 | 0.149 | |||
| New Orleans Saints (13-3, #3) | 2.923 | 3.400 | 3.162 | 2 | 0.477 | |||
| Minnesota Vikings (10-6, #6) | 3.538 | 3.133 | 3.336 | 3 | 0.405 | |||
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, #4) | 3.846 | 3.333 | 3.590 | 4 | 0.513 | |||
| Green Bay Packers (13-3, #2) | 4.769 | 3.667 | 4.218 | 5 | 1.103 | |||
| Seattle Seahawks (11-5, #5) | 3.538 | 5.133 | 4.336 | 6 | 1.595 | |||
This chart clearly shows that the 49ers are the class of the NFC and should be considered the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, at least from a statistical perspective – one can never count out Drew Brees, and the Saints happen to be the #2 team in the conference.
The gap between the Seahawks and every other team in the conference is even more evident in these NFC rankings. However, the Eagles have been inconsistent all year and lost to Seattle at home in Philadelphia back in November, so this will most likely be a competitive game.
When sorted and run just to include the AFC teams, sorted by lowest combined ranking:
| AFC Playoff teams Average rankings | ||||||||
| Offense | Defense | Combined | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens (14-2, #1) | 2.077 | 2.933 | 2.505 | 1 | 0.856 | |||
| New England Patriots (12-4, #3) | 4.154 | 1.533 | 2.844 | 2 | 2.621 | |||
| Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, #2) | 3.000 | 4.267 | 3.633 | 3 | 1.267 | |||
| Buffalo Bills (10-6, #5) | 5.000 | 2.800 | 3.900 | 4 | 2.200 | |||
| Tennessee Titans (9-7, #6) | 3.231 | 4.733 | 3.982 | 5 | 1.503 | |||
| Houston Texans (10-6, #4) | 3.538 | 5.333 | 4.436 | 6 | 1.795 | |||
The AFC rankings demonstrate that the Baltimore Ravens are the class of the conference. The Patriots graded out as the second place team largely due to their poor offense. The Ravens defeated New England in Baltimore back in week 9, and while it’s hard to believe that any bill Belichick team could possibly lose to any team twice in one year, the Ravens should nevertheless be the favorites.
The statistics show that the Houston Texans, in particular, are probably the team that doesn’t belong in the AFC playoffs.
CONCLUSION
I feel obligated to repeat that all of this data isn’t the be-all, end-all of playoff football evaluation. These games must be played on the field, and it is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty even for professional evaluators. These rankings do show the pattern of performance for these teams and gives an indication of which teams should probably do well and which should have early exits. However, no statistical analysis or ranking can possibly take the place of the intangibles of performance on any given day by both teams and individuals, which is why we watch and don’t just award the Lombardi Trophy on the basis of statistical results. That having been said, it appears as though the Ravens and 49ers are justifiably the top seeds in their respective conferences and should be the odds-on favorites to reach the Super Bowl.