It’s Time to Look at the 2020 Salary Cap
January 9, 2020
by Steve Thomas
Now that the regular season is over and our beloved Washington Redskins have decisively moved into the 2020 offseason, it’s a good time to take a look at where the team stands regarding the 2020 salary cap. If you aren’t aware, we have a comprehensive salary cap chart on our website that has all of the info you’ll ever need (click here). So, without further ado, let’s get started.
First of all, the NFL’s official 2020 base salary cap number has not been announced yet, but it is projected to rise to between 196.8 and $201.2M. The Redskins should have approximately $12M in rollover cap space as a result of the team’s cap usage during the just-finished 2019 season. Those two figures puts Washington’s 2020 adjusted cap space somewhere between approximately $209M and $213M.
For these purposes, I’ve structured the analysis to assume that the Redskins are into offseason cap rules – meaning, the end of the injured reserve list, increased in roster size from 53 to 90, the use of the Rule of 51[1], and I’ve treated the players who are on futures contracts as being regular members of the roster – even though the NFL obviously isn’t technically in the offseason yet.
In total, as of today, the Redskins have 62 players under contract for the 2020 season, including the 5 futures contracts[2], for a total cap hit of approximately $170.3M. Under the Rule of 51, the cap hit drops to approximately $166.9M. Therefore, without making any moves at all, Washington has somewhere between $29.9M and $34.3M in free cap space. Some as of yet unknown portion of that space will have to be allocated for the rookie draft picks. The rookie pool is established pursuant to the terms of the Collective Bargaining Agreement to establish the slotting system for rookie contracts. As a rough guide, last year, the Redskins’ rookie pool was $8.4M for 10 selections, whereas the team only has 6 picks this year; however, the fact that the team holds the second overall pick will offset the lack of picks somewhat, so for the sake of this analysis let’s assume that their rookie pool is approximately $7.5M. This leaves the team with between roughly $22.4M and $26.8M in practical cap space without making any moves.
OFFENSE
Quarterbacks
The quarterback room currently has only two inhabitants, the injured Alex Smith and second-year player Dwayne Haskins. Smith’s contract is a doozy, as you know, accounting for $21.4M of cap space in 2020. The Redskins supposedly hold an insurance policy on Smith’s contract; if so, and Smith still isn’t able to play, his cap hit will be offset by that amount. Whether that’s true, and if so, how much, is just speculation. For now, let’s assume the worst about his cap number. The Redskins are most likely stuck with Smith’s deal this season. He has $32.2M in dead money, meaning that if he’s released, then that amount will be assigned to the Redskins salary cap as a result. In other words, he’ll be an $11.8M loss of cap space in the event he is released (and healthy enough to be released, which is no sure thing). This loss could be spread of two years via the post-June 1 rule, but still: big loss. Smith can’t retire from the NFL if he is healthy enough to play because he could end up having to pay back millions of dollars of his signing bonus that he’s already been paid. If his doctors tell him that he can’t play again, then that’s a different story, but it doesn’t seem to be the case based on Smith’s apparent intention to play again. The only realistic way out is for the Redskins and Smith to negotiate a settlement, but really, why would Smith do that? Players like Smith who have leverage negotiate guarantees into their contracts for precisely this reason. The odds are that Smith is a Redskin this year even if he doesn’t take a single snap.
Haskins is in year 2 of his rookie deal, which is still a relative bargain at $3.3M, so the total amount obligated to the quarterback group in 2020 is currently approximately $24.7M.
Offensive Line
The elephant in the room for this position group is obviously the status of Trent Williams, who will count for $14.75M in 2020. Williams is in the last year of his contract and only has a $2M dead cap hit, so he is both cuttable and tradeable at great savings. New head coach Ron Rivera is supposedly going to make an effort to bring Williams back into the fold, so he’s a big open question both from an on-field standpoint and because of his salary cap ramifications. The other big number amongst the tackles is Morgan Moses, who is in year 3 of a 5 year contract extension and will count for $8.7M next year. Moses’ dead cap figure will finally shrink to the point at which he is realistically cuttable and tradeable at a savings of nearly $4.9M if assigned just to the 2020 cap year. The other three players are minimum cap hits. The tackles currently occupy $24.4M of cap space.
The Redskins have an extreme and dire situation at guard, with neither Ereck Flowers and Brandon Scherff currently under contact. The only guards on the roster at the moment are Wes Martin and Ross Pierschbacher, both entering their second season, and Chase Roullier, who is a center. Their collective cap hit is very low, thankfully, occupying only $2.2M.
Together, the entire offensive line counts for $26.6M, the bulk of which being Williams and Moses.
Wide Receivers
There are a whole slew of receivers signed to the roster for 2020, currently 10, but the only player not on a rookie or minimum deal is Paul Richardson, Jr. Richardson is entering year 3 of his 5 year deal and will count for $8.5M. His dead cap money is $6M, so he is cuttable, albeit at a savings of just $2.5M (if put on the 2020 cap year and not split between 2020 and 2021 as a post-June 1 release). The entire position group counts for just $11.9M under the Rule of 51, and everyone can be released.
Running Backs
This is a position in flux, with the two big questions being the status of future hall of famer Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson’s free agency. The team holds an option on Peterson for the 2020 that the team must exercise no later than 22 days prior to the start of the new league year, which begins on March 18. Therefore, the Redskins have until February 25 to exercise their option. If they do not, Peterson will become a free agent. If the Redskins choose to bring him back, he will count for $3.25M. Thompson is an unrestricted free agent.
The only running backs currently on the roster are second year players Derrius Guice and Bryce Love and street free agent Josh Ferguson, who was signed to the practice squad in October and added to the active roster in mid-December. Together, those three players count for just $2.7M. All of them can be either cut or traded. If Washington chooses to bring Peterson back, the number jumps to approximately $6M.
Tight Ends
This position group is yet another one that is an open question for the Redskins. The team currently has $11.7M obligated towards tight ends, including Jordan Reed at $10.3M and Hale Hentges, Jeremy Sprinkle, and Caleb Wilson all on rookie deals. Vernon Davis’ contract expired with the 2019 season, so he will become an unrestricted free agent.
The big issue here is obviously the status of Jordan Reed, who missed the entire season after a dirty hit by Falcons’ safety Keanu Neal resulted in another concussion for Reed. Whether Reed chooses to return to the team remains a mystery, but he did put his house up for sale during the season, which doesn’t seem like a sign that he intends to come back. Reed is entering year 4 of his 5 year contract extension. For the most part, a retirement is treated like a release, so if Reed retires or is released, he will save the team $8.5M if treated like a pre-June 1 release. A post-June 1 release would split the dead cap hit over the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
DEFENSE
Defensive Line
The big news on defense is that the Redskins are transitioning from their base 3-4 to a base 4-3, which will have an effect on both personnel and the salary cap. In recognition of this transition, I have moved Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat, Chris Odom, and Ryan Bee from the outside linebacker group to the defensive line group. If it becomes apparent that these players or others will be linebackers in 2020, I’ll move them back; for now, this represents my best guess as to who will play where.
The net result of this change to the 4-3 is that the defensive line position group has grown to 10 players. Kerrigan, who is entering the final year of his contract, counts for $11.75M but has zero dead money. Matt Ioannidis, who signed a three year contract extension through the 2022 season, occupies $6M in cap space in 2020. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have cap hits of $3.7M and $3.9M, respectively. 2019 first round pick Montez Sweat comes with a $2.6M cap hit. The remaining players, including Ryan Bee, Jordan Brailford, Cameron Malveaux (who signed a futures contract last week) Chris Odom, and Tim Settle, are all on cheap rookie deals.
All of this means that the Redskins have a serious amount of money obligated to this position group, over $30M under the Rule of 51. Ioannidis has an $8.7M dead cap hit this year and this isn’t cuttable (not that the Redskins would want to do that). Allen and Payne were both first round draft picks with fully guaranteed contracts and thus aren’t cuttable at a savings, although they could be traded at a savings. All other players can be cut at a salary cap savings.
Linebackers
Long time fans of my salary cap chart (do any of those people exist?) will see that I changed the “inside linebacker” designation to “middle linebacker” in recognition of the team’s transition to the 4-3. Since 2019 starter Jonathan Bostic is once again hitting free agency, the middle linebacker position is downright barren, with only 2019 fifth round pick Cole Holcomb and 2018 sixth round pick Shaun Dion Hamilton on the roster. I hesitate to put Holcomb in the middle, but someone has to do it, right? I put fourth year linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemons in the outside linebacker group. Holcomb and Dion Hamilton together count for just $1.3M against the cap in 2020.
With several players being moved to the defensive line group, the outside linebacker group is almost as barren, with just Ryan Anderson (who might be a defensive end himself), Reuben Foster (who could possibly be a middle linebacker if necessary), and the aforementioned Harvey-Clemons on the roster. Foster was drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft by the 49ers, but lost his guaranteed money when he was cut and thus only costs $1.7M against the cap. Anderson and Harvey-Clemons are on their rookie deals as well, so together, the outside linebackers currently only cost $4.1M. The entire linebacker group only occupies $5.5M worth of cap space.
Secondary
The secondary as a whole is by far the biggest drain on Washington’s salary cap space, almost $43.2M under the Rule of 51, although to be fair it is also the largest position group on the roster. There are 11 corners and 5 safeties signed for the 2020 season. Josh Norman, who fell out of favor this past season, is the albatross of the bunch as he enters the final year of his contract with a $15.5M cap hit. Starter Quinton Dunbar also enters the last year of his contract and has a $4.4M cap hit. All of the other corners, including 2020 third round pick Fabian Moreau (who is also entering the last year of his contract), 2018 undrafted free agent Danny Johnson, 2018 seventh round pick Greg Stroman, 2019 seventh round pick Jimmy Moreland, and a slew of other street free agents and undrafted rookie free agents brought to the roster in the face of massive injury problems, are all on minimum and/or rookie deals. All told, the corners collectively cost $25.7M in cap space under the Rule of 51, and all of them can be cut or traded.
Landon Collins is the big money guy of the safety group. He’s entering year 2 of a 6 year, $84M deal. His 2019 cap hit was small, just $4M. The bad news is that his small 2019 hit is in part responsible for a much bigger 2020 hit of $14.2M. He also has an $18M dead cap hit for 2020 and $18.8M in 2021, meaning he isn’t realistically cuttable until 2022. Deshazor Everett is entering year 1 of his three year contract extension he signed last season and has a $1.535M cap his and $1.5M in dead money, meaning that he could be cut, but only at a minimal overall savings (which, again, could be done as a post-June 1 designation to spread the dead cap hit over two years). The remaining safeties, Troy Apke, Kenny Ladler, and Montae Nicholson, are all on cheap rookie contracts. Together, the safeties cost approximately $17.5M.
Specialists
Of the specialists, punter Tress Way is locked up through 2024, having recently signed a new 4 year contact extension worth $13.25M in the final week of the season. He will have a cap hit of $2.6MM in 2020. Long snapper Nick Sundberg, who has been with the Redskins since 2010, and placekicker Dustin Hopkins are each entering the final year of their contracts and have cap hits of $1.2M and $3.3M, respectively. Together, the specialists occupy almost $7.1M of cap space. Sundberg and Hopkins can be cut at a savings.
How can the Redskins realistically create more cap space?
This, of course, is the question of the day. What are the easiest and most likely cuts the team can make to improve their fortunes and give them space to pursue expensive free agents if they so choose?
First, at least prior to the hiring of Rivera, it seemed inevitable that Josh Norman would be cut. If so, and he’s cut early in the preseason as a pre-June 1 cut, he would save $12.5M.
Second, if Jordan Reed does not retire, the team should make the tough decision to move on from him. He’s at the point where everyone cringes every time he gets hit, and he’s never played a full 16 game season in his entire career. As talented as Reed is, and even though he’s been the focus of the offense when he’s on the field, he is just not reliable. I’ll reserve judgment about whether he should retire for health reasons, because that’s nobody’s business but him and his family; however, it’s time for the Redskins to move on. He will save the Redskins $8.5M on the 2020 salary cap.
Third, Morgan Moses has (1) underperformed and is (2) expensive, so if the Redskins could find another starting-quality right tackle, they could move on from him as well at a savings of $4.85M if done as a pre-June 1 designation. This is a tougher call, because they already have a huge question mark at left tackle, and the team shouldn’t create another problem just to save cap space; however, if Williams can be brought back, and there’s an adequate replacement available in free agency, the Redskins should consider this move.
Fourth, as tough as it would be, if Rivera is comfortable with the running back group – which, frankly, seems unlikely – they should consider not bringing Peterson back, which would save $3.25M.
In summary:
Definitely should do:
Josh Norman: $12.5M
Jordan Reed: 8.5M
Subtotal: $20.0M
Should consider doing:
Morgan Moses: $ 4.85M
Adrian Peterson $ 3.25M
Subtotal: $ 8.10M
TOTAL: $28.1M
These four moves would result in the Redskins having between approximately $50.5M and $54.9M in free cap space, which is more than enough to make any moves they want to make. In fact, it’s probably much more than they need. If they only cut Norman and Reed, and brought Peterson back, they could still have between $42.4M and $46.8M in space, which is also enough to make significant moves.
Ryan Kerrigan is another candidate to be cut, at least from a financial standpoint, as he could hypothetically bring the total savings to just under $40M and the total available cap space to between about $62.2M and $66.7M if all other moves were made, although it seems unlikely that the Redskins would actually do this. The Redskins almost certainly do not need this much cap room in 2020. If the team cut only Norman, Reed, and Kerrigan, but kept Moses and Peterson, the savings would be approximately $31.75M, which would bring between approximately $54.2M and $58.6M in available cap space.
The obvious candidates for big money contracts are Brandon Scherff and Ereck Flowers. I’ve already written about what a potential contract for Scherff could look like, and Flowers should be in the neighborhood of $6-7M per year. In the worst case scenario, then, those two together could be a cap hit of between $20M and $25M. Therefore, if both are signed, subtract $25M from the numbers above. Even if just Norman and Reed are cut, the Redskins still should have between $17M and $26M of remaining free space, at worst.
Do you have any thoughts on the salary cap? Let me know in the comment section below.
[1] The Rule of 51 is a CBA mechanism through which only the top 51 contracts count towards the salary cap during the offseason in order to allow teams to expand their roster to 90 without being in breach of the salary cap.
[2] A futures contract is a method teams can use to maintain control of practice squad players during the offseason. Practice squad contracts end after the team’s season ends, so teams (including the Redskins) sign these players to a contract that technically doesn’t begin until the start of the new year but allows teams to hold the rights of the player in question, and allows the players to be involved with the team in the early offseason.