Road to the Draft, Part 3

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January 28, 2020

by Noonefromtampa

Periodically, I will cover the multitude of mock drafts that proliferate starting in December and going right up to the actual draft.  Players will rise, players will fall based on performances in all-star games, the combine, pro days and just plain rumors that may have no foundation in reality.

Key Upcoming Dates

January 25 – Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama

February 24 to March 2 – NFL Combine in Indianapolis, Indiana

February 25 to March 10 – Franchise/Transition Tag period

March 16 to March 18 – Pre-free agency negotiation period

March 18 4pm – Rule of 51 takes effect, new league year officially begins

April 23 to April 25 – NFL Draft in Las Vegas, Nevada

Why are these dates so important?

Team rosters and draft plans will be impacted by players released for salary caps issues to meet the “Rule of 51” and new free agents will be signed. Draft eligible players get their chance to showcase their skills at the combine and their college pro days. All this happens in the days leading up to the draft.

What is the “Rule of 51” I keep hearing about?

It’s pretty simple: the players with the 51 largest cap hits must be less than the total team salary cap for the 2020 season. For the 2020 season, the salary cap is projected to be between $196.8M and $201.2M for each NFL team.

The Rest of the Story

We’re going to help Hog Sty readers out with a lot of draft coverage, including tracking of mock drafts published on various Internet sites. The Hog Sty draft coverage will include:

  • Summaries of who the top picks will most likely be
  • Analysis of draft prospects by position group
  • Who some of the more famous prognosticators have as their top picks
  • The prognosticators who have been the most accurate historically
  • Track mock drafts for the most likely candidates for the Redskins to draft at the number two pick in the draft

These players are the most likely candidates for selection at the number two spot, as stated by mock draft consensus:

Player Position College Choice %
Chase Young DE Ohio State 86%
Andrew Thomas OT Georgia 10%
Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama 2%
Derrick Brown DT Auburn 2%

The reason Andrew Thomas is still so high in percentage is a number of mock drafts have not been updated since before the end of the season when the Redskins were picking in the 3-5 slot. Two sports writers who don’t seem to understand the Redskins’ offseason needs mocked Tua and Brown to Washington. So, there you have it: the Redskins are taking Chase Young at #2. Sorry, Steve.

Seriously, a lot can happen between now and the draft, and quite a bit can happen on draft day too. The Bengals could take Young or another player beside Joe Burrow. The Redskins could even engineer a trade for a number of picks later in the draft.

For those of you who want to be adventurous and create your own mock draft (maybe even post it as a comment on the Hog Sty), there are several sites that you can use:

fanspeak – Link_to_fanspeak_simulator

First-Pick – Link_to_firstpick_simulator

The Draft Network – Link_to_TheDraftNetwork_simulator

Each of the sites has its own strengths and weaknesses.  Steve Shoup, creator of Fanspeak.com, has been a guest on The Hog Sty Podcast.

My next column will cover who some of the best rated people doing mock drafts are, who they are picking.

Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com