It’s Time to Talk About Brandon Scherff (Again)
March 17, 2020
by Steve Thomas
Last June, I wrote a word-laden missive about a possible long-term contract between Brandon Scherff and the Washington Redskins (click here to read), and arrived at either 6 years / $88M, or 5 years / $72M. Those numbers would’ve been pretty close if a deal had been reached, I think. However, the Redskins changed the calculus this past Saturday by placing the non-exclusive franchise tag on Scherff. I wrote about what the franchise tag means on that same day (click here to read). The next step for the team, assuming that Scherff actually signs the franchise tender offer, is to finish negotiation of a long term deal. Therefore, it seems like a perfect time to update my numbers from last year.
First, as a supplement to Saturday’s column, various contract sources, after a bit of struggle, have now agreed on Scherff’s tag number. Over the Cap’s figure that I cited in my column last week, $16.102M, has been revised down to $14.187M. NFL agent turned analyst and friend of the show Joel Corry and salary cap website Spotrac both agree with that figure. Corry then cited $16.25M as a hypothetical average of the 2020 tag and the Redskins’ use of the 2021 franchise tag on Scherff.
Background
Scherff was drafted with the fifth pick in round 1 of the 2015 draft out of the University of Iowa. A tackle for the Hawkeyes, he was universally considered to be the best offensive line prospect in the draft that year. Some analysts pegged him as a better guard in the NFL, but that year the Redskins were desperate for a right tackle and brought Scherff to Washington to fill that role. However, Morgan Moses (who was the teams’ third round pick in 2014) came out of nowhere in training camp to take a major step forward from a shaky rookie year and was able to take over the starting right tackle role, allowing Scherff to move inside to his more natural position of guard. With that, the future of the right side of the Redskins’ offensive line was born.
Since his arrival in DC, Scherff has played and started in 65 games in five seasons and was elected to the 2016, 2017, and 2019 Pro Bowls. His first serious injury happened in 2018 when he tore his pectoral muscle in week 9 against the Falcons. He then suffered elbow and shoulder injuries that again forced him to injured reserve in early November, 2019.
Scherff’s rookie contract, signed in 2015, was valued at $21.125M over 4 years. The Redskins exercised their CBA-mandated fifth year option on Scherff for 2019 and he played the 2019 season on a fully-guaranteed $12.525M. As said above, we’ll use Over the Cap’s $14.187M as our franchise tag estimate for the 2020 season, assuming Scherff signs the tender.
Contract Estimate
This was my original proposed contract for Scherff, as stated in last year’s column:
Year Age Base Salary Cap hit Dead Money
2019 27 $12.525M $12.525M $12.525M
2020 28 $10M $13.67M $47.5M
2021 29 $10M $13.67M $33.83M
2022 30 $11M $14.67M $20.16M / $25.66M
2023 31 $11.5M $15.17M $11M
2024 32 $11.5M $15.17M $7.33M
2025 33 $12M $15.67M $3.67M
My criteria for this contract was beating Andrew Norwell’s five year, $66.5M deal with Jacksonville and Zack Martin’s six year, $84M deal with Dallas. Martin’s deal had $40M guaranteed and a $14M average annual value.
The new inputs into this issue are, first, the Redskins’ use of the franchise tag that has an estimated value of $14.187M, and second, the fact that the Eagles signed Brandon Brooks to a 4 year, $56.35M contract last year that had a $14,087,500 in average annual value and $30M in what Spotrac calls “practical guarantees”, which equals 53.24% in guarantees.
It is important to note that Corry stated on his Twitter feed that it’s possible that Scherff’s agent may use the $16.25M tag average number as a guide for Scherff’s long term deal. I’m going to bump that number up to a non-scientific $16.5M out of an abundance of caution.
Therefore, assuming that Scherff will demand to be the highest-paid guard in the league, I think the targets for Scherff’s long term deal are now probably Martin’s $84M total value and $40M in guarantees, $16.5M in average annual value, and Brooks’ 53.24% in guarantees.
Under those criteria, a hypothetical 6 year contract is pretty eye-popping: (1) 6 years / $99.5M, $53.8M guaranteed at signing, a $16.5M average annual value, or (2) 5 years / $82.5M, $44.6M guaranteed, with $16.5M average annual value in both scenarios. Now, before you freak out and start typing up ugly tweets and comments to me telling me that I don’t know what I’m talking about (again), bear in mind that I view this as a max contract, not a bargain deal; hopefully the Redskins can strike a better deal. I just think that this is approximately what it’s ultimately going to take to get Brandon to voluntarily stick around. This can be structured many ways, but in my opinion, the most reasonable is to fully guarantee the year 1 and 2 base salary, and year 3 for injury only at signing but becoming fully guaranteed 10 days after the end of the 2021 season.
July 15 is the last day for tagged players to sign a multiyear deal; after that day, they have to play on the one year tag. Before that date, the Redskins and Scherff could (1) agree to void the tender in favor of a multiyear deal beginning in 2020, or (2) keep the 2020 tender contract in place and sign a multiyear extension. For simplicity’s sake, I’m going to assume that the parties agree to a deal that begins in 2020.
Taking all of this into account, here’s what a hypothetical 6 year contact could look like, assuming an even distribution and a $25M signing bonus:
Year Age Base Salary Cap hit Dead Money
2020 28 $14.4M $18.57M $53.8M
2021 29 $14.4M $18.57M $35.23M
2022 30 $13.44 $17.61M $16.66M / $30.1M
2023 31 $11.42 $15.59M $12.49M
2024 32 $10.42 $14.59M $8.34M
2025 33 $10.42 $14.59M $4.17M
The $30.1M dead money hit in 2022 is the amount that the team will incur after Brandon’s 2022 salary becomes fully guaranteed after the 2021 season in my hypothetical.
So there it is, revised from a year ago: 6 years / $99.5M, $53.8M guaranteed at signing (54%), $67.24M in overall guarantees, and $16.5M average annual value, making Brandon Scherff the highest paid guard in the NFL by almost every measure. The Redskins could do some other things like paying out the signing bonus in chunks or giving him incentives that would change these numbers, but that’s too much detail for this column.
I designed this contract to be front loaded in recognition of Scherff’s advancing age, to give the Redskins an out after year 2, and to make it more appealing to Scherff by getting all of the money guaranteed at signing to him in the first two years. It gives the Redskins control over Scherff through age 33 while reducing his cap hit as he ages and allows them to get rid of him if his performance suffers or he continues to be injury plagued.
If $18.57M is too high of a cap hit for 2020, Washington could either reduce his base salary or his signing bonus to reduce his cap number. However, trust me when I say that it would be very hard to calculate numbers that substantially reduces the 2020 cap hit while allowing the Redskins to still have an out at year 2 and maintaining this level of overall guaranteed money. Reducing the cap hit in year 1 comes at a price.
I’m not going to reprint another chart here, but this same general setup will work with similar year to year numbers on a five year schedule.
Once again, I stress that this is a “max” contract, and not where Washington should start negotiations. The team might not be willing to make Scherff the highest paid guard in the league. If they don’t, though, someone else probably will next year, or, in an unlikely scenario, offer a similar contact this year that will allow the Redskins to gain two first round compensatory picks. Also, Scherff may not be willing to take a reduction in base salary.
I realize that this is a huge contract, but remember, the pending departure of Trent Williams gives the team a bit more flexibility in terms of the percentage cap spent on the offensive line. Trent almost assuredly won’t appreciate the Redskins offering this kind of contract to Brandon, but:
Are you in favor of a contract like this? Let me know what you think in the comment section below.