The present and future of the Redskins running back group
June 4, 2020
by Steve Thomas
This is installment number 2 of my written position group breakdown series. We’ve been doing this as a segment on the show for years, of course, but this is the first year I’ve done a separate written version. Part 1 was on the Redskins’ offensive line (click here to read). Next up is the running back group.
The Redskins’ running back room is one of the more interesting ones on the team. Here’s a summary of what’s happened thusfar this offseason:
Departures
Derrick Gore (from practice squad)
Arrivals
Returning players
Bryce Love
The short and long-term future of this group depends on Bryce Love (5’9” / 200). He was essentially given a planned redshirt rookie year as a result of his ACL tear he sustained on December 1, 2018, at Stanford. By the time training camp starts at the end of July, Love will be over 19 months removed from his surgery. Even if Love has, as rumored, had some infection-related complications, a year and a half is still a significant amount of time for an ACL recovery. For that reason, I don’t think Love is going to be put back on the PUP list this year – he’s going to be ready to play. Whether he can get back to his peak 2017 form, when he was the best running back in college football, is another story, but the smart money is on Love to be active. If Love is in fact able to come all the way back, he could end up being the franchise back the Redskins have lacked since the 2012 version of Alfred Morris. If he’s still not ready to play, or he is a shell of his 2017 self, then opportunities open for others. Everything hinges on Love.
The status of Derrius Guice (5’11” / 218) is the other critical component to the running back room. Guice has played well in the very limited opportunities he’s had, but he’s obviously been injury prone and not able to stay on the field. The challenge for Guice is clear, and it’s likely that the team gives him at least another year to prove himself since he was a second round draft pick. Guice’s regular season NFL stats include 5 games played, with 1 start, 42 carries for 245 yards, 5.8 yards per attempt, and 2 touchdowns, and 7 catches in 9 receptions for 79 yards and 1 touchdown. Guice missed all of the 2018 season due to an ACL tear suffered in the first preseason game. Last season, he tore his meniscus in his right knee in week 1. Guice returned in week 11, but sprained his MCL in week 14 and missed the remainder of the season. There’s no question that Guice has the talent to be a starting-level running back, at a minimum, but trusting him to remain healthy isn’t a smart bet.
The old man, Adrian Peterson (6’1” / 220), can obviously still play at a high level and is definitely the most reliable back on the team. The problem is that at 35 years old he isn’t the future, and given that this is a young team, it’s entirely possible that he won’t have a place on the roster if both Guice and Love end up being ready to play. At times, Peterson has been the Redskins’ most valuable offensive player over the last two years. In his two years in Washington, he’s had 462 carries for 1940 yards, for an average of 4.2 yards per carry, and he’s such a freak of nature even by NFL standards that there’s no reason to think that he can’t do it again. I shudder to think what this offense would’ve been like without him, but don’t be surprised if he’s not on the roster in 2020. It’s tough for me to envision Peterson filling the third string back role at a $3.25M cap hit.
Conventional wisdom says that J.D. McKissic, (5’10” / 195), who was a 2016 undrafted free agent out of Arkansas St., has the third down back role locked up, at least for now. He’s had a good balance of successful running and receiving throughout his career: 88 carries for 402 yards and 4.6 yards per carry and 1 touchdown, and 70 receptions on 91 targets for 515 yards and 7.4 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. McKissic’s competition for this role is the versatile Antonio Gibson (my film study on Gibson is here). If Gibson really comes on strong in training camp, it’s not impossible to think that the team chooses to save a little bit of cap space and just let Gibson have the job. Gibson can be a true hybrid player, although in my view is farther along as a runner than as a receiver at the moment. The point is, this is a battle to keep an eye on in training camp. McKissic is on a 2 year contract, but his dead money is low enough that he can be cut at any time at a modest savings.
Peyton Barber (5’11” / 225) seems to be competing for the third string role. He is experienced, playing 63 games and 28 starts in 4 seasons, with 551 total carries for 1,987 yards and 3.6 yards per attempt and 15 touchdowns. Barber’s principal downside is that his average yards per attempt has gone down each year, from 4.1 yards per attempt in 55 carries as a rookie in 2016 down to 3.1 yards per attempt in 154 carries last year. Given the level of competition in this position group, Barber may have a tough hill to climb if the Redskins end up keeping Guice, Love, and Peterson. He has some talent but he hasn’t demonstrated versatility in his NFL career, has never been a receiving threat, and has never been a punt or kick returner. Barber is going to have to prove himself and hope for some luck to stick on the roster.
Finally, Josh Ferguson (5’10” / 200) is a holdover from last year who spent most of 2019 on the Redskins’ practice squad before being promoted to the active roster in December. He’s been active for 28 games in three seasons, with 23 carries for 152 yards and an average of 6.6 yards per carry, with all but 4 of those carries coming in Indianapolis in 2016. Prior to the Redskins, Ferguson spent most of his career on the practice squads for the Colts, Texans, and Patriots. Certainly, Ferguson is last on the depth chart right now, but he’s going to get his shot to prove to the new coaching staff that he belongs, or at least should be kept on the practice squad.
Given all of this, what could the 2020 depth chart look like? The most optimistic and capable version, irrespective of cost, is this:
RB1/2: Bryce Love (cap hit $863K) and Derrius Guice (cap hit $1.238M)
RB3: Adrian Peterson (cap hit (cap hit $3.25M)
RB4: J.D. McKissic (3rd down) (cap hit $1.6M)
RB5: Antonio Gibson (hybrid RB/WR) (cap hit around $1M)
Practice squad: Josh Ferguson (minimal cap hit)
That group would have a total combined cap hit of a bit less than $8M.
If Love and Guice are both healthy and ready to go, the team may choose to save cap space by cutting Peterson, which would put the depth chart like this:
RB1/2: Bryce Love (cap hit $863K) and Derrius Guice (cap hit $1.238M)
RB3: Peyton Barber (cap hit $1.36M)
RB4: J.D. McKissic (3rd down) (cap hit $1.6M)
RB5: Antonio Gibson (hybrid RB/WR) (cap hit around $1M)
Practice squad: Josh Ferguson (minimal cap hit).
This group would have a total combined cap hit of around $6M.
The real controversy starts if either Guice gets hurt again or Love either isn’t ready to play or isn’t able to get back to 100 percent. If that’s the case, then both Peterson and Peyton Barber both probably stay and the cap hit will be around $8M, with Guice or Love on either IR or PUP, respectively.
The nightmare scenario is if Guice gets hurt again and Love also isn’t ready. At that point, Peterson becomes the starter, Barber is the backup, with Ferguson perhaps getting a shot at sticking on the active roster. That scenario is the most expensive, with the cap hit rising up close to $9M.
As far as the future goes, this group is truly up in the air. Washington may have one, two, or zero young franchise-quality running backs. The only player who is guaranteed to be around for a few seasons is Antonio Gibson, but even he hasn’t proved anything in the NFL yet. Unlike some other position groups, no crystal ball can predict the fate of the running backs. Too much is up in the air, namely whether Derrius Guice can finally stay healthy and whether Bryce Love is able to live up to his potential.
What do you think? Let me know in the comment section.
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