What are the odds that Dwayne Haskins will make it?

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Steve Thomas

July 8, 2020

by Steve Thomas

It’s not exactly a revelation to suggest that Redskins quarterback Dwayne Haskins had an up and down rookie year in 2019. This offseason, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Haskins has made it abundantly clear mostly via his social media channels that he’s worked hard this offseason, and reports from those who’ve worked out with him have been favorable. The Redskins certainly need Haskins to become the franchise quarterback that he was drafted to be. What are the odds of that happening? This column isn’t going to be a Haskins film study – I will probably get to that, but not today. This effort is going to be a statistical analysis of other quarterbacks in similar situation to find out what the historical odds of success might be. You know you wanted this, so let’s do it.

Here’s my methodology: I’m going to analyze the first and section year stats of all the quarterbacks drafted over the last 20 years in the same portion of the first round as Haskins. These are the quarterbacks who had roughly the same expectations as does Haskins. Then, I’ll do the same thing with every quarterback who started at least 24 games in the first two years of his career. The goal is to see if I can identify a statistical pattern in quarterbacks who ultimately went on to become “franchise quarterbacks” and quarterbacks who ended up as busts, in order to see where Haskins falls in this spectrum. There may be a part two in which I expand this list of players if enough people want it.

This is a list of every quarterback drafted between picks 11 and 22 of round 1 between 2000 and 2018:

Name Pick Team Year

Deshaun Watson 12 Texans 2017

Johnny Manziel 22 Browns 2014

EJ Manuel 16 Bills 2013

Brandon Weeden 22 Browns 2012

Christian Ponder 12 Vikings 2011

Josh Freeman 17 Buccaneers 2009

Joe Flacco 18 Ravens 2008

Brady Quinn 22 Browns 2007

Jay Cutler 11 Browns 2006

Ben Roethlisberger 11 Steelers 2004

J.P. Losman 22 Bills 2004

Kyle Boller 19 Ravens 2003

Rex Grossman 22 Bears 2003

Chad Pennington 18 Jets 2000

If you take a highly subjective wag at a success / not a success evaluation, I’d say 4 of these 14 quarterbacks lived up to their draft status: Watson, Flacco, Cutler, and Roethlisberger. I’ll give Sexy Rexy at least a passing grade as well, since he ended up being roughly a league average long-term starter. On the other hand, 3 of 14 were total failures from day one: Manziel, Weeden, and Quinn. Chad Pennington had promise but was derailed by injuries and the stupidity of the New York Jets. The rest of these guys had careers as backups for awhile and never lived up to their promise, but weren’t total busts. The relevant question is whether there’s some indication in the first year statistics of these players that should have given us a hint about their future success, or lack thereof.

Let’s look at 3 key stats in years 1 and 2 for the 4 who “made it” and lived up to their draft status, completion percentage, interception percentage, and quarterback rating:

Name Year Gms started Comp % Intercept % QB rating

Watson 2017 6 61.8 3.9 103.0 2018 16 68.3 1.8 103.1

Flacco 2008 16 60.0 2.8 80.3 2009 16 63.1 2.4 88.9

Cutler 2006 5 59.1 3.6 88.5 2007 16 63.6 3.0 88.1

Roethlisberger 2004 13 66.4 3.7 98.1 2005 12 62.7 3.4 98.6

The trend in these stats is that all four had a completion percentage of above 60% in year two; for that matter, all but Cutler were also above that level in year 1, and Cutler was almost there at 59.1%. The other thing that jumps out is that these 4 players all have quarterback ratings at least 88.1 in year 2. Also, the interception percentages for all four decreased in year 2. In general, each made improvements across the board.

Now, let’s examine those same stats for the 3 complete busts:

Name Year Gms started Comp % Intercept % QB rating

Manziel 2014 2 51.4 5.7 42.0 2015 6 57.8 2.2 79.4

Weeden 2012 15 57.4 3.3 72.6 2013 5 52.8 3.4 70.3

Quinn 2007 0 37.5 0.0 56.8 2008 3 50.6 2.2 66.6

None of these quarterbacks ever reached 60% completion percentage, an 80 quarterback rating, or consistently started for their teams. Incidentally, it shouldn’t be lost on you that all three of these players were drafted by the Browns, who truly have been the absolute worst franchise in the NFL for a long time.

Here are the same stats for the 5 quarterbacks who were “in the middle”, so to speak, and didn’t become solid starters but were able to hang around the league for awhile:

Name Year Gms started Comp % Intercept % QB rating

Manuel 2013 10 58.8 2.9 77.7 2014 4 58.0 2.3 80.3

Ponder 2011 10 54.3 4.5 70.1 2012 16 62.1 2.5 81.2

Freeman 2009 9 54.5 6.2 59.8 2010 16 61.4 1.3 95.9

Losman 2004 0 60.0 20.0 39.2 2005 8 49.6 3.5 64.9

Boller 2003 9 51.8 4.0 62.4 2004 16 55.6 2.4 70.9

Of this group, only Ponder was able to post a completion percentage of 60 percent or higher in either year (Losman only threw 5 passes in 2004). EJ Manuel and Christian Ponder were the only two who even reached an 80 quarterback rating. Ponder and Freeman were the only two who made real statistical improvement from year 1 to year 2.

I left out Grossman and Pennington because neither one played much in the first two years of his career, but here are their numbers:

Grossman 2003 3 52.8 1.4 74.8 2004 3 56.0 3.6 67.9

Pennington 2000 0 40.0 0.0 127.1 2001 0 50.0 0.0 79.6

These numbers have little to no statistical value because of the lack of game time.

20 quarterbacks have started at least 24 games in his first 2 seasons in the NFL between 2009 and 2018. Here’s the list of these quarterbacks above and beyond the players I already reviewed above:

Name Games started Team Years

Mitchell Trubisky 26 Bears 2017-18

Dak Prescott 32 Cowboys 2016-17

Carson Wentz 29 Eagles 2016-17

Marcus Mariota 27 Titans 2015-16

Jameis Winston 32 Buccaneers 2015-16

Blake Bortles 29 Jaguars 2014-15

Teddy Bridgewater 28 Vikings 2014-15

Derek Carr 32 Raiders 2014-15

Geno Smith 29 Jets 2013-14

Robert Griffin III 28 Redskins 2012-13

Andrew Luck 32 Colts 2012-13

Ryan Tannehill 32 Dolphins 2012-13

Russell Wilson 32 Seattle 2012-13

Andy Dalton 32 Bengals 2011-12

Blaine Gabbert 24 Jaguars 2011-12

Cam Newton 32 Panthers 2011-12

Christian Ponder 26 Vikings 2011-12

Sam Bradford 26 Rams 2009-10

Josh Freeman 25 Buccaneers 2009-10

Mark Sanchez 31 Jets 2009-10

Of this group, Prescott, Wentz, Carr, Luck, Wilson, Dalton, and Newton became true “franchise quarterbacks”, which is admittedly a subjective label, but I think is a fairly accurate representation of what all of them. Here are their stats for years 1 and 2 of their careers:

Name Year Gms started Comp % Intercept % QB rating

Prescott 2016 16 67.8 0.9 104.9 2017 16 62.9 2.7 86.6

Wentz 2016 16 62.4 2.3 79.3 2017 13 60.2 1.6 101.9

Carr 2014 16 58.1 2.0 76.6 2015 16 61.1 2.3 91.1

Luck 2012 16 54.1 2.9 76.5 2013 16 60.2 1.6 87.0

Dalton 2011 16 58.1 2.5 80.4 2012 16 62.3 3.0 87.4

Newton 2011 16 60.0 3.3 84.5 2012 16 57.7 2.5 86.2

As you can see, each of 4 of 5 of these quarterbacks had completion percentages over 60 percent by year 2. Newton was the only one who failed in that regard, but I’d call Newton an outlier since his rushing ability is such an integral part of his game. Also, the lowest quarterback rating in year 2 was Newton’s 86.2.

Here are Dwayne Haskins’ stats from last season:

Name Year Gms started Comp % Intercept % QB rating

Haskins 2019 7 58.6 3.4 76.1

As you can see, these first year stats would put Haskins more in the “middle” group than the franchise group.

Conclusions

What are the trends in these numbers? First, franchise quarterbacks manage to get their completion percentage up into at least the low 60 percent range by year two, if not higher. Second, the quarterback ratings of franchise quarterbacks are universally up to at least 86 in year 2. Also, the franchise quarterback’s interception percentage is at 3.0 or lower, with Ben Roethlisberger being the only exception. When taken together, Haskins’ combination of statistics would put him either in the middle group or at the bottom of the list of quarterbacks who became franchise-level players. That’s not to say that he can’t get there, because a simple look at stats doesn’t tell the whole story. But it is apparent that there’s a baseline in play for quarterback who become franchise players: 62%, 3.0, 86 – Haskins needs to play a full season and hit all three of those marks in 2020 in order to fit the profile of a future franchise quarterback. It should go without saying that stats aren’t everything – some of the quarterbacks listed here suffered through some very trying circumstances, Haskins included, that dramatically affected their play. Some teams had a lack of talent, some had bad coaches, some had injuries, and some, such as the Redskins, had all three. The point is that statistical analysis like this needs to be taken in context. That having been said, the pattern I’ve identified does seem to be the baseline necessary to eventually make it as a franchise quarterback. If Haskins can’t meet those numbers (62%, 3.0%, 86 quarterback rating) this coming season, it doesn’t bode well for him. I think he can do it, though – he really looked good in his last few games and has been working hard this offseason. I can’t wait to find out.