With tragedy comes opportunity
August 14, 2020
by Steve Thomas
Washington lost Derrius Guice last week, in ugly, potentially unforgivable circumstances that, if the worst case is true, could essentially end his football career and his freedom, plus have a lasting impact on his alleged victim. If you know me at any level, you are aware that I have very little sympathy for guilty criminals, but no matter how you look at it, Guice’s story is a tragedy – he grew up in extremely tough circumstances, in poverty, with a father who was murdered and a brother who was charged with attempted murder resulting from a 2016 drive-by shooting and eventually plead guilty to a weapons charge and sentenced to 2 years in prison. Derrius was supposed to be the one who persevered through his circumstances and overcame those long odds, bringing his thousand-watt smile and fan friendly attitude to DC thanks to a life and generation-changing lightning strike of God-given elite athletic ability and NFL size.
However, it’s been nothing but downhill since draft day in 2018, with two season-ending injuries, and now, this. His time in Washington, and perhaps both his freedom and NFL career, comes to an end with just 5 total regular season games played, 42 carries for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns. His story is a true Shakespearean tragedy, dreams shattered by personal flaws from which Guice clearly couldn’t escape. He leaves Washington as one of the most disappointing busts of a decade full of draft busts. His background aside, one’s past should never be an excuse for one’s present – if the charges are true, he made choices that ruined his life. If he did what he’s accused of, then good riddance to him. If not, then I wish him the best in continuing his NFL career somewhere else.
That brings us to Bryce Love, who was drafted out of Stanford by the then-Redskins last year with the express understanding that he was recovering from a serious knee injury and would most likely need at least a season to recover and rehab himself back up to the point that he would be able to play at a high level again. Nobody thought when Love was drafted that he was going to be on the field in 2019. His story was always one of promise and future potential more than immediate production. Now, with Guice’s tenure with the franchise having come to an end, Love’s opportunity in Washington just moved from the background to the foreground. As the roster stands, Love has the chance to become Washington’s undisputed franchise back. Whether we’ll ever see the awesome force of nature running back of 2017 at Stanford, or whether he goes down in the large and distinguished trash heap of discarded Washington players who were never, ever the same remains to be seen. What can we reasonably expect from Love? Let’s try and find out.
Background
Love (5’9” and 200 pounds) spent four years at Stanford and played in a total of 49 games, with 569 rushing attempts for 3,865 yards, for an average of 6.8 yards per attempt, and 30 touchdowns. He also had 49 receptions for 465 yards and 2 additional touchdowns. In 2018, Love had 166 for the Cardinal, gaining 739 yards, for an average of 4.5 yards per attempt, which is significantly below is average for his first three collegiate years. Love was highly celebrated after his 2017 junior season in which he averaged 8.1 yards per carry, gained 2,118 yards, won the Doak Walker Award, was named as a Unanimous First Team All-American, and the runner up for the Heisman Trophy, but elected to return to Stanford to earn his degree and finish off his collegiate career. Disaster struck, however, as he missed some time during the season due to injuries and then tore his ACL in Stanford’s final game of the regular season that was not nearly as successful at 2017 even before his injury. Love was only able to average 4.5 yards per carry, with just 166 carries for 739 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2018. He was not able to run at the 2019 Combine, but comes from a family of track stars and when healthy is expected to run 4.35 second range. He did do the bench press, however, posting 18 reps at 225 pounds.
Washington drafted Love with the 10th pick of round four last season, and then put him on the Physically Unable to Perform list for the entire 2019 season, and he’s been rehabbing his knee ever since. Notably, new head coach Ron Rivera did not put him back on PUP to start this year’s training camp along with quarterback Alex Smith and Reuben Foster (who has since been moved to the active roster), which means that the team’s medical staff believes that Love can be a full-go for the 2020 season.
What can we expect from Love?
Washington’s running back group still has the potential to be very good for the next several years even without Guice, with Love and rookie Antonio Gibson each bringing different skillsets to the table and future hall of famer Adrian Peterson most likely taking the lead for the immediate future. For Love in particular, there’s obviously no guarantee that he’s going to be the same as he was in 2017 ever again, but at a minimum, the team needs to give him the chance in training camp to get mentally comfortable with his knee and prove that his speed and agility are still intact. If he’s fully healthy, Love is probably the most talented back on the team beyond Peterson. He’s not a bruising, downhill, A gap power runner – he’s lightning quick, has great moves, and can get to the edge, but he had a great deal of success in college by bursting through interior gaps. Love isn’t just an edge runner; he’s very skilled at finding a tiny crease and exploding through it into the second level. At his best, he was an explosive home run hitter. Guice and Love together could’ve been a two headed monster, with Guice taking most of the power runs. Love fulfilling his half of that promise depends on how far he can come back mentally and physically, because a back who relies on speed and an ability to move laterally can be especially hurt by ACL tear-induced losses in mobility. Love’s game is particularly vulnerable to this injury, more than perhaps others would be, and the lack of a preseason is going to make his status even more questionable.
In order to keep me from having to spend hours and hours watching Stanford games to recreate a highlight package that’s already been done, here are Love’s 2017 highlights courtesy of YouTube user “ClemsoNation”, posted on January 8, 2018:
Hey, sue me – this column was never supposed to be one of my famously-detailed film studies. The point is that these highlights show this player’s explosiveness and ability to find a tiny seam and break out for touchdowns. If Love’s knee is all the way back, he can do this sort of thing in the NFL, too, albeit obviously not with the same frequency as he did against PAC-12 defenses.
Now that Guice is gone, Peterson is going to be the undisputed starter to begin the season. Gibson is a roster lock, as is Love pending 100% health. That leaves J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber left to fight for most likely one additional spot. The team cut Josh Ferguson before the Guice news broke, an action which new head coach Ron Rivera might now regret. It wouldn’t surprise me much to see either Ferguson’s return or another running back from either the waiver wire or off the street brought in as some additional competition. With Guice’s departure, the potential of this position group definitely got weaker, but there’s still plenty of talent left to ensure a solid future.