2019 Carolina Panthers Offensive Patterns
September 1, 2020
By Noonefromtampa
In this column, I will look in some detail at the offensive patterns used by the 2019 Carolina Panthers. New Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner was on the offensive staff for the Panthers last year and took over as offensive coordinator after Ron Rivera was fired. Looking at these patterns will hopefully provide some insight into what the Washington Football Team’s offense will look like in 2020.
There is a great site for football stats, sharpfootballstats.com, run by Warren Sharp. If you’re into innovative breakdowns and data visualizations, this is a site you should visit and bookmark.
First, let’s expand on the personal groupings that I mentioned in my previous column on offensive terminology (click here to read). In 2019, the offensive play breakdown for the Panthers and the Washington Football Team was as follows:
| Overall | ||
| Category | Panthers | WFT |
| Total Plays | 1,070 | 881 |
| Successful Play Rate | 45% | 42% |
| Passing Game | ||
| Pass Rate | 64% | 60% |
| Successful Pass % | 45% | 42% |
| Pass Plays | 684 | 525 |
| Pass Attempts | 626 | 476 |
| Sacks | 58 | 49 |
| Pass Completions | 380 | 297 |
| Passer Rating: | 76.3 | 84.7 |
| Pass TD:INT Ratio | 18:20 | 20:13 |
| Yards Per Attempt | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| Air Yds Per Attempt | 8.3 | 7.6 |
| Running Game | ||
| Run Rate | 36% | 40% |
| Successful Run % | 45% | 43% |
| Rush Attempts | 386 | 356 |
| Rush TDs | 20 | 10 |
| Yards Per Carry | 4.7 | 4.3 |
The Panthers won only two more games than Washington, but ran almost 200 more plays – that’s how anemic Washington’s offense was in 2019. Washington ranked 27th in yards per play, 31st in total yards, 32nd in scoring, 32nd in passing and 22nd in rushing.
Now let’s look at the breakdown on play calls by personal group for the Panthers:
| Personnel Grouping | 00 Group | 10 Group | 11 Group | 12 Group | 13 Group | 20 Group | 21 Group | 22 Group | 23 Group | 32 Group |
| % of Total Plays | 0% | 0% | 68% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| Total Plays | 5 | 1 | 725 | 188 | 17 | 1 | 60 | 71 | 1 | 1 |
| Successful Play Rate | 60% | 0% | 44% | 49% | 35% | 0% | 52% | 39% | 100% | 0% |
| Pass Rate | 60% | 100% | 74% | 48% | 35% | – | 58% | 17% | – | – |
| Successful Pass % | 67% | 0% | 44% | 49% | 17% | – | 54% | 33% | – | – |
| Pass Plays | 3 | 1 | 536 | 91 | 6 | – | 35 | 12 | – | – |
| Pass Attempts | 3 | 1 | 490 | 82 | 6 | – | 33 | 11 | – | – |
| Sacks | 0 | 0 | 46 | 9 | 0 | – | 2 | 1 | – | – |
| Pass Completions | 2 | 1 | 294 | 53 | 1 | – | 23 | 6 | – | – |
| Passer Rating | 93.8 | 95.8 | 71.8 | 98.2 | 39.6 | – | 94.6 | 90.3 | – | – |
| Pass TD:INT Ratio | 0:00 | 0:00 | 13:18 | 3:01 | 0:00 | – | 1:01 | 1:00 | – | – |
| Yards Per Attempt | 8.7 | 7 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 1.8 | – | 8.9 | 0.6 | – | – |
| Air Yds Per Attempt | 3.7 | 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 6.6 | – | 8.2 | 5.6 | – | – |
| Run Rate | 40% | – | 26% | 52% | 65% | 100% | 42% | 83% | 100% | 100% |
| Successful Run % | 50% | – | 44% | 48% | 45% | 0% | 48% | 41% | 100% | 0% |
| Rush Attempts | 2 | – | 189 | 97 | 11 | 1 | 25 | 59 | 1 | 1 |
| Rush TDs | 0 | – | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Yard Per Carry | 4.0 | – | 5.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 1 | -1 |
Carolina used the 11 personnel group with the greatest frequency, followed by the 12, 22, and 21 groups. Between the 11 and 12 groups, 12 was slightly more successful at 49%. The run/pass rate in 12 was fairly balanced at 52% run to 48% pass with that passer rating the highest at 98.2.
I think Washington will use the 12 group frequently on early downs as it tries to establish their rushing identity during the first few weeks of the season.
Another great feature of the Sharp Football Stats site is that it gives the user the ability to drill down into specific situations such as down and distance. For example, on 1st down in the 1st quarter, the Panthers used the following groupings: 11 (45%), 12 (33%), 21 (13%), and 22 (8%). On 1st and 10 from their own 21 to 40-yard line, the Panthers would pass 54% of the time and run 46% of the time.
The Run Game
What can be expected from the run game in 2020?
Christian McCaffrey was the primary ball carrier for the Panthers in 2019. For the season, McCaffrey had 1,387 yards for a 4.8 average per attempt and 15 touchdowns. Another important point is that he also had 116 receptions for 1,005 yards with an 8.7 average per reception with 4 touchdowns.
Now let’s see how those carries are broken down directionally:
The interior “A” gap type runs were the most frequently run with 102 carries. For “B”, “C” and “D” gap runs, there was a slight edge in runs to the right (117 carries) over runs to the left (98 carries).
The “A” gap runs also had the highest yards per carry with an average of 6.0 yards. “B” gap runs were 4.7 yards (left) and 3.5 yards (right). “C” gap runs were 3.9 yards (left) and 4.3 yards (right). “D” gap runs were 4.6 yards (left) and 5.8 yards (right).
Lastly, these are the directions from which runs of 10 or more yards came:
- “A” gap – 12
- Left “B” gap – 3
- Right “B” gap – 2
- Left “C” gap – 5
- Right “C” gap – 4
- Left “D” gap – 3
- Right “D” gap – 4
Again, the interior runs produced the biggest plays of ten yards or greater.
The Pass Game
In this section, we’ll look where the Panthers threw the ball and how effective the passing game was for the team. The break down for completion percentage of throws (1) between left, center and right, and (2) under and over 15 yards, is as follows:
| Distance | Left | Center | Right |
| 15 or more yards | 42% | 20% | 23% |
| Less than 15 yards | 76% | 69% | 68% |
Overall, the Panther offense was very effective at the short passing game, equally across the field. Deep center and right were the least effective parts of the passing game.
The completion percentages for the 15+ yard throws went down on 2nd and 3rd downs. A team is more likely to throw on those downs when they have gotten little yardage on 1st down. The offense was still effective at the shorter throws, but depending on distance to the first down marker you might get the yards needed to make the first down.
I expect Washington will keep to a shorter pass game early on in the season as they get settled in on the players for the offensive line and wide receiver positions.
Conclusion
Improving the offense from being in the bottom five of the league is one of the key factors to the team’s chances to improve on last year’s win-loss total. Just improving to being ranked around 19-22 would be a huge improvement.
The information in this column is the type of information that the game scouts for the Eagles will develop for the week one game against Washington. There is no film on what Scott Turner is going to do with the current Team personnel, other than what the Panthers did last season with their personnel. They will have to mine the tendencies and formations used by the Panthers last year to scheme was defensive fronts and coverages they will employ in the game.
This enables Washington’s offense to have a slight edge going into week 1 by virtue of being an unknown quantity. Based on Ron Rivera’s press conferences over the last couple of weeks, he appears to be keeping as much detail of what his team is going to do under wraps as much as possible to keep opponents guessing.
Data Source: sharpfootballstats.com