Game Preview, Week 16: Panthers at Washington
December 26, 2020
by Steve Thomas
With the loss last week to the Seahawks, this week 16 matchup against the Carolina Panthers has taken on a new level of importance. This is essentially a do or die game for Washington because a loss makes it very difficult for them to win the NFC East. Therefore, what appeared before the season to probably just be Ron Rivera’s revenge meeting has become a must-win event for the Redskins the home team. Fortunately for Washington, the Panthers has struggled all season and aren’t a good team. This is one of the few weeks this season in which Washington is actually favored to win, and legitimately so. The stars should be aligned for Washington to go all out in order to get the victory. We can’t downplay the importance of this game: if the Giants lose to the Ravens – which is a 1:00 pm game, so the results will most likely be known prior to kickoff of this game – then Washington can improbably secure the NFC East crown. Our preview begins below.
Game time & location: Sunday, Dec 27, 2020, 4:05 p.m. ET, Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, Waldorf, MD; no fans
Television: CBS
Television announcers: Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn
TV broadcast map: click here
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Washington radio network: click here
Panthers radio network: click here
Satellite radio: XM: 228 (Wash. broad.) Sirius: 134 (Wash. broad); internet: 831 (Washington broad.)
Redskins roster: click here
Redskins depth chart: click here
Panthers roster: click here
Panthers depth chart: click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Panthers: 9 – 6 (last 5: 2 – 3; streak: 2 – 0)
Last meeting: W, December 1, 2019, 29 – 21
Early odds: -2, Washington
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Establish a running game
Regardless of whether Washington’s starter is Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Taylor Heinicke, or Alex Zeese, this team simply must figure out a way to have some semblance of a rushing attack. Alex’s athletic prowess aside, none of the quarterbacks on the roster are good enough to carry a team completely by themselves, and it’s when the rushing attack is a big zero, like last week, that the offense really stalls. The Panthers do not have a particularly successful run defense: they have given up an average of 4.7 yards per carry this year and they’ve had a couple of games where this aspect of their defense was really exposed. This is the biggest key to this game.
Make Teddy Bridgewater inefficient
Bridgewater is a good starting quarterback. So far this year, he has a 69.8% completion percentage and a quarterback rating of 95.1, and has 14 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions. Bridgewater has had 4 games with 280 yards or more passing. He is athletic, but not mobile to the same extent that some of the top running quarterbacks are. He only has 265 rushing yards this season. Bridgewater can hurt Washington if he’s given time and space to operate, and Carolina isn’t a great rushing team without Christian McCaffrey. Bridgewater’s performance is a key to this game.
Limit the Carolina big plays
Carolina’s D.J. Moore is averaging just under 19 yards per reception and has over 1,000 yards on the season, which is second in the NFL, and Robby Anderson is also over 1,000 yards. Washington needs to keep these two from making big, back-breaking touchdown receptions, because those plays have been the bane of Washington’s existence this season. Keeping the Panthers from getting cheap and easy touchdowns via big plays caused by blown coverages is an important key to this game.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Defensive end Brian Burns has 8 sacks this season, which leads the Panthers, and is normally lined up on the left side, which puts him opposite right tackle Morgan Moses. Washington has given up a fairly high number of sacks this year and needs to do a better job at protecting the quarterback, whether that is Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, or someone else. If Burns, who is injured, plays, this is a marquee matchup this week, so keep an eye on how much pressure is coming from the right side of the offensive line.
D.J. Moore vs. Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby
As I mentioned above, Moore has averaged almost 19 yards per reception. He’s a big play receiver, so Fuller and Darby need to have a good day on Sunday in order to limit Moore’s opportunities to make big plays. I expect Washington to play more zone than man against Carolina, so watch for how much safety help Jack del Rio rolls to Moore’s side. This is another important key to Washington if they intend to win this game.
Russell Okung vs. Montez Sweat
Russell Okung was a highly touted first round pick who never did live up to his elite billing coming out of college, although he has made two Pro Bowls. Sweat is Washington’s most successful pass rusher this year, so this matchup is a case of best on best and should be fun to watch. I expect Washington to flip Sweat and Chase Young, and also bring Ryan Kerrigan in at times, so it won’t be Okung versus Sweat all day long, but this is still a highly visible battle to keep an eye on.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (active roster only) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful NL – not listed
| Washington | Panthers |
| LB T. Davis, NIR; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | DE B. Burns, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
| LB C. Holcomb, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | RB C. McCaffrey, thigh; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: D |
| WR T. McLaurin, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: D | T R. Okung, calf; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: D |
| RB A. Gibson, toe; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | CB T. Pride, Jr., hip; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: D |
| T M. Moses, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | DE A. Larkin, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| LB K. Pierre-Louis, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | DT B. Roy, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| G W. Schweitzer, hip; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP | DE Y. Gross-Matos, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| QB A. Smith, calf; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; game: Q | DE M. Haynes, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| DE E. Obada, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR C. Samuel, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| LB A. Taylor, ankle; Wed: NL; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
TEAM STATISTICS
Washington:
From a statistical perspective, Washington’s offense continues to chug along about as it has been all season. They have scored 302 points, which is ranked 26th, and are 29th in total yards, 29th in average yards per game, and 25th in passing yards, rushing yards, and rushing yards per attempt. They are 17th in time of possession and 27th in red zone efficiency.
As a defense, Washington continues to produce mostly top 10 or top 5 results. They have surrendered just 295 points, which is 5th in the NFL, and are 4th in total yards, yards per game, and yards per play. They are 3rd in total passing yards. Washington’s weakness is rushing yards, where they are ranked 13th in total yards surrendered. Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per attempt, which is ranked 15th. Washington’s defense has been outstanding in the red zone, giving up touchdowns at a rate of just 51.35%, which is second in the NFL.
Record: 6 – 8 (1st) (Home: 3 – 4; NFC: 4 – 6)
All-time franchise record: 609 – 611 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 26 (points) / 29 (total yards) / 29 (yards per game) / 30 (yards per play) / 25 (passing yards) / 28 (passing yards per att.) / 25 (rushing yards) / 25 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 302 |
| Yards per game | 317.3 |
| Passing
|
522 att (11th); 341 comp; 65.3% comp per. (17th); 6.4 Y/A; 3042 net yds; 13 TD; 12 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (220 att (34th), 1420 yds (34th), 66.4% comp perc (17th), 4 TDs / 6 Int, 79.0 QB rating (31st); Haskins (213 att, 1285 yds, 62.9% comp perc, 5 TDs / 5 Int, 77.7 QB rating) |
| Receiving leader | McLaurin (1078 yds (10th), 126 tgts (10th), 80 rec (16th), 3 TDs, 13.5 YPC) |
| Rushing | 354 att (23rd); 1400 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 100.0 Y/G (25th); 18 TDs (8th) |
| Rushing leader | Gibson (141 att (23rd), 659 yds (21st), 11 TDs (5th), 4.7 Y/A (19th), long 40) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 44 / 29 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:14 / 17 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 38.46% / 27 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 58.14% / 22 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 5 (points) / 4 (total yards) / 4 (yards per game surrendered) / 4 (yards per play) / 3 (passing yards) / 4 (passing yards per att.) / 13 (rushing yards) / 15 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 295 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 312.6 |
| Opponent’s passing | 468 att (8th); 298 comp; 63.7% comp perc. (10th); 6.6 Y/A; 2803 net yds; 20 TDs; QB Rating 85.2 (5th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 364 att (13th); 1574 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 11 TDs; 112.4 Y/G (13th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 40 / 8 / Sweat (7.0) |
| Tackles leader | Bostic (102) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 13 / 11 / Fuller (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 37.43% / 8 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 51.35% / 2 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 20.7 Y/R (21st), 29 returns, long 46 yards (19th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.6 Y/R (19th), 28 returns, long 22 yards (19th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 25.8 Y/R (17th), 8 returns (2nd), 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 6.0 Y/R (7th), 32 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punting | 48.3 Y/P (5th); 64 punts (4th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 21 / 18 / -3 / 21
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 77 / 16
Panthers:
Statistically, the Panthers’ offense is mediocre across the board. They have scored 323 points, which is ranked 22nd, and are 20th in total yards and average yards per game. Carolina is ranked 16th in passing yards, 20th in rushing yards, and average 4.3 yards per rushing attempt, which is 18th in the league. They are not good in the red zone, scoring touchdowns at a rate of just 52%, which is ranked 17th.
Carolina’s defense is similarly mediocre. They have given up 356 points, which is ranked 20th in the NFL, and are 19th in total yards, yards per play, and passing yards. They are 18th in total rushing yards, and are allowing 4.7 yards per rushing attempt, which is ranked 29th. The Panthers’ defense is terrible on third down, allowing opponents to convert first downs at a 50% rate, which is ranked 30th in the NFL.
Record: 4 – 10 (4th); Away: 2 – 5; NFC: 3 – 7)
All-time franchise record: 199 – 214 – 1
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
22 (points) / 20 (total yards) / 20 (yards per game) / 12 (yards per play) / 16 (passing yards) / 13 (passing yards per att.) / 20 (rushing yards) / 18 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 323 |
| Yards per game | 356.6 |
| Passing | 485 att (19th); 336 comp; 69.3% comp per. (5th); 7.5 Y/A; 3475 net yds; 15 TDs; 10 Int |
| Passing leader | Bridgewater (441 att (15th), 3360 yds (17th), 69.8% comp per. (4th), 14 TDs / 8 Int, 95.1 QB rating (19th)) |
| Reception leader | Anderson (1017 yds, 119 targets (12th), 85 rec (9th), 2 TDs, 12.0 Y/C); Moore (1055 yds (11th), 97 targets, 56 rec, 4 TDs, 18.8 Y/C (2nd) |
| Rushing | 352 att (24th); 1517 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 108.4 Y/G (20th); 17 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Davis (151 att (19th), 614 yds (24th), 5 TDs, 4.1 Y/A (36th)), long 25 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 29 / 15 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:47 / 12 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 40.35% / 22 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.0% / 27 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 20 (points) / 19 (total yards) / 19 (yards per game surrendered) / 23 (yards per play) / 19 (passing yards) / 12 (passing yards per att.) / 18 (rushing yards) / 29 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 356 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 359.1 |
| Opponent’s passing | 506 att (24th); 350 comp; 69.2% comp per. (27th); 7.0 Y/A; 3356 net yds; 24 TDs; QB Rating 100.5 (25th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 359 att (11th); 1672 yds; 4.7 Y/A; 6 TDs |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 24 / 25 / Burns (8.0) |
| Tackles leader | Chinn (101) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 5 / 31 / Jackson (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 50.0% / 30 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 64.0% / 20 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 25.3 Y/R (7th), 27 returns, long 98 yards (5th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.7 Y/R (27th), 19 returns, long 20 yards (27th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 20.3 Y/R (7th), 6 returns (1st), 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 10.9 Y/R (27th), 15 returns, 1 TD |
| Punting | 46.2 Y/P (12th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 16 / 20 / +4 / 11
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 91 / 28
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com