2021 NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview
January 7, 2020
by Steve Thomas and Jamual Forrest
This preview is going to be a bit different than our playoff previews from years past. Since Washington is in this season’s tournament, I’ve focused on their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in lieu of doing the intense number crunching it takes to do the preview I’ve published in prior seasons. Therefore, in this column is Jamual’s preview of each Wild Card game and a limited look at offensive and defensive rankings for each team. We will also have our regular Hog Sty Podcast preview of the Tampa Bay – Washington game as well as our normal, full written preview of that contest later in the week.
2020 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Wild Card Weekend
Saturday, Jan. 9
1:05 p.m. ET – Indianapolis (#7) at Buffalo (#2) (CBS)
4:40 p.m. ET – Los Angeles Rams (#6) at Seattle (#3) (FOX)
8:15 p.m. ET – Tampa Bay (#5) at Washington (#4) (NBC)
Sunday, Jan. 10
1:05 p.m. ET – Baltimore (#5) at Tennessee (#4) (ESPN/ABC)
4:40 p.m. ET – Chicago (#7) at New Orleans (#2) (CBS)
8:15 p.m. ET – Cleveland (#6) at Pittsburgh (#3) (NBC)
Unlike years past, the NFL has not announced the broadcast schedule for the remainder of the playoffs. We will publish that when available.
JAMUAL’S WILD CARD MATCHUP PREVIEW
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
The Colts, led by the future hall of fame quarterback Phillip Rivers, are leaving right where they left off in 2018. 2019 was a transitional period for them, as quarterback Andrew Luck‘s sudden retirement from the NFL in August left the team scrambling for answers at the position. This year is an excellent matchup for the Colts, the faceoff in western New York against the Buffalo Bills. Quarterback Josh Allen is having an MVP caliber season, and truthfully, it will come down to just Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers and Allen.
Both teams boast a top ten offensive unit, while the Bills rank 2nd in the league. I expect plenty of points on Saturday; the question will end up being which team’s defense will make the most significant play? Both teams’ defense is top 15 in the league, so they are just as respectable as their offenses. For me, though, I think Buffalo’s defense stands tall when it mattered most on Saturday, and Bills move on to the divisional round.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-4)
Rams and Seahawks’ rivalry games are typically great battles from both a head coaching and defensive standpoint. Unfortunately for the third matchup, both teams have major injury concerns, most notably quarterback Jared Goff. Goff missed last week’s game due to a fractured thumb, and he may likely miss this week’s game too. For Seattle, safety Jamal Adams and defensive tackle Jarran Reed are among the injured players whose status is up in the air for Saturday.
In the end, outside of the quarterback position, the absence of players at other positions does not significantly impact a team’s ability to win a game. So it will come down to Goff’s playing status on game day to determine how much of a chance Los Angeles will have against their divisional rival. Either way, I think Seattle prevails in the wild card, as I believe they are real Super Bowl contenders along with the Green Bay Packers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Washington Football Team
Tom Brady‘s first regular season as a non-New England Patriot went just as he expected, 11-5 and a chance at winning another Super Bowl. His path to ring number seven begins in Washington, as he faces off against the 7-9 NFC East division champion. This matchup is intriguing because the Buccaneers face off against the second-best defense in yards allowed, which is a test for them as they have not faced a top ten unit since week 11 in the Los Angeles Rams. However, Washington has issues of its own, too. Washington’s offense is nowhere close to the Rams’ level, who beat the Buccaneers on the road that Monday night.
The Buccaneers will end up taking care of business and advancing to the divisional round because of Washington’s inability to score points, which is required against such an explosive offense.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
In last year’s divisional round, the Titans came into Baltimore and completed the upset against the heavily favored Ravens. The playoff rematch between these two teams makes for a great Sunday watch. Derrick Henry rushed for over 2,000 yards in the Titans’ 2020 division title run, averaging over five yards per carry and taking over in nearly every game this season.
The Ravens have a challenging task Sunday, but they aren’t the underdog in this game; Tennessee is. Baltimore has one of the better defenses in the league and has one of the best rushing attacks on offense. They know how to manage the game; the problem is how they react and perform when they are trailing. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has not proven he can keep his teams in a game as a passer in critical moments. I am sure that his coaches are aware and will do their best to keep the offense ahead of the sticks capitalizing on key situational moments.
You need a quarterback in the playoffs who can win you a game; both of these teams have them. However, I think the Titans have the best shot to make it to the divisional round, as the combination of Derrick Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be too much for the Ravens this week.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-10)
The Bears could not take care of business against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, but luckily for them they still sneaked their way into the playoffs following a Cardinals loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The Saints are currently the biggest favorite of the Wild Card weekend. This playoff is potentially quarterback Drew Brees‘ last of his career, and the hope is that the Saints can pull off a moment similar to the 2015 Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning before his retirement. It is as simple as taking care of business for them on a week-to-week basis, which entails just managing the game and minimizing the potential for mistakes. With that being said, I don’t think Brees will be out on the field Sunday throwing the ball more than 25 times. This is a game where Taysom Hill and the Saints running backs will be a heavy presence against Chicago’s defense.
The Bears are not being given a shot to win this game by anyone, including me! However, I think they will have a shot to cover in the game because of the Saints’ approach. The question mark only surrounds how head coach Matt Nagy calls the game and how many turnover-worthy decisions quarterback Mitchel Trubisky will make against New Orleans. How much of a game can Chicago make it on Sunday? We will see.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
The Browns and Steelers face off for a third time this season, with this matchup holding all of the fanbase’s bragging rights. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is having a solid bounceback season, as his 2019 year created chatter about his future as a Brown. That being said, Mayfield has a tough ask of him this week; the Steelers defense is a top-three defense this year and had cut him and the rest of the Browns offense slack last week, sitting some of their key starters. Browns head coach Kevin Stefansky will not coach Sunday’s game due to a positive COVID-19 test, and that will have an impact on the Browns come gameday, though the degree to which it will is unknown right now. With a defense that is middle of the pack overall, the Browns will have to find a way to prevent big plays from happening from the Steelers’ passing game, as that is what typically sparks Pittsburgh’s offense.
As for the Steelers, their three-game losing skid in early December was eye-opening, but it is also how they won their first 11 games, to begin with. They live and die with the big play offensively and have a defense that will hold them down in nearly every game. It all comes down to the Steelers being able to score at least 20 points because they’re only giving up 19.5 per game. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger may be one of the three dinosaurs left in the NFL at his position. Still, they use him as if he plays in a pure Air Raid offense, which speaks volumes about the level of confidence in him and the increased risk-potential he carries with as many passes he throws per game, which is third-most in the league. I think the Steelers’ playstyle will slow the game down for both teams and allow Cleveland more opportunities to stay in this game. It is a toss-up in that regard, with the Browns can steal one on the road, but I think the Steelers win this in a close game.
STATISTICS
The following chart shows the relevant offensive rankings for each playoff team:
| Team | Seeding | Points | Total Yds | Passing Yds | Passing Yds per Att | Rushing Yards | Rushing Yds per Att | Sacks Surrendered |
| Chiefs | AFC #1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 5 |
| Packers | NFC #1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| Bills | AFC #2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 9 |
| Saints | NFC #2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 12 |
| Steelers | AFC #3 | 12 | 24 | 15 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 1 |
| Seahawks | NFC #3 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 28 |
| Titans | AFC #4 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Washington | NFC #4 | 25 | 30 | 25 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 31 |
| Ravens | AFC #5 | 7 | 19 | 32 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| Buccaneers | NFC #5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 27 | 4 |
| Browns | AFC #6 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Rams | NFC #6 | 23 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
| Colts | AFC #7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 3 |
| Bears | NFC #7 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 28 | 25 | 23 | 17 |
The following chart shows the relevant defensive rankings for each playoff team:
| Team | Seeding | Points | Total Yds | Passing Yds | Passing Yds per Att | Rushing Yards | Rushing Yds per Att | Sacks Surrendered |
| Chiefs | AFC #1 | 11 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
| Packers | NFC #1 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 11 |
| Bills | AFC #2 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 16 |
| Saints | NFC #2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Steelers | AFC #3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 1 |
| Seahawks | NFC #3 | 15 | 22 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Titans | AFC #4 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 30 |
| Washington | NFC #4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 6 |
| Ravens | AFC #5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 14 |
| Buccaneers | NFC #5 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Browns | AFC #6 | 21 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 16 |
| Rams | NFC #6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Colts | AFC #7 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| Bears | NFC #7 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 8 | `17 |