NFL Divisional Round Playoff Preview
January 15, 2021
Washington bowed out of the this year’s playoffs last weekend with their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the tournament continues for the eight remaining teams. Their aren’t any obvious teams to left for Redskins Washington fans to love and hate, which makes this a perfect opportunity to just sit back and enjoy football for what’s left of the 2020-21 season. Without further ado, here’s a short preview of this week’s divisional round matchups:
Schedule
Saturday, January 16
4:35 p.m. ET – Rams (#6) at Packers (#1) (Fox)
8:15 p.m. ET – Ravens (#5) at Bills (#2) (NBC)
Sunday, January 17
3:05 p.m. ET – Browns (#6) at Chiefs (#1) (CBS)
6:40 p.m. ET – Buccaneers (#5) at Saints (#2) (Fox)
Unlike prior seasons, the NFL has not announced the broadcast schedule for conference championship weekend. We will publish the remainder of the playoff schedule when available.
DIVISIONAL MATCHUP PREVIEW
Los Angeles Rams (11 – 6) at Green Bay Packers (13 – 3) (-6.5)
In some ways, the 2020 season has been the Aaron Rodgers Revenge Tour, no doubt the result of the Packers having drafted his replacement in the form of Jordan Love in last year’s draft instead of a new, immediately useful offensive weapon. The 13 – 3 Packers have been the best team in the NFC all year, but this game is a case of strength on strength: the Packers’ #1 scoring offense versus the Rams’ #1 defense. The Rams’ offense has been decidedly less successful, scoring only 372 points this season, which is ranked 23rd, and that’s ignoring the fact that Los Angeles’ first string quarterback Jared Goff has a busted thumb on his throwing hand, and his backup, somebody named John Wolford, was in the hospital last Sunday. As a result, this game will come down how well the Rams can hold Green Bay’s offense in check. If the game turns into a shootout, look for Green Bay to win, particularly since Rams All Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald has a rib injury. Green Bay has been on a roll recently, winning their last 6 games in a row, including three games over two playoff teams, the Bears and the Titans. The Rams are 4 – 2 over their last six, including last week’s Wild Card win over the Seahawks. Given the circumstances, plus the fact that the Rams have to travel to Green Bay in mid-January, I predict a solid Packers win. Give the 6.5 points and take Green Bay.
Baltimore Ravens (12 – 5) at Buffalo Bills (13 – 3) (-2.5)
Both the Ravens and the Bills both played well to end the season, with the Ravens on a 6 game winning streak, and the Bills winning their last 7. Both teams are high scoring offenses, but have very different skills: the Ravens are the NFL’s top rushing team, thanks in large part to running ability of quarterback Lamar Jackson, whereas the Bills have piled up passing yards. The difference in this game is Baltimore’s highly-rated defense, which held every team but the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans to under 30 points this season. Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen has improved greatly since his college days. This season, he posted a 69.2% completion percentage, 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and a quarterback rating of 107.2. The Ravens defense only allowed 303 points, and were ranked 6th in the NFL in passing yards surrendered and 7th in quarterback rating, so this game features another “strength on strength” situation. This game will most likely be a close, hard-fought affair, but this seems like Allen’s year, so I predict that Buffalo will end up on top.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
At first glance, this game should be the blowout of the weekend. The 14 – 2 Chiefs lost only one game in which they played all of their starters, to the Raiders in week 5, their only other loss coming in week 17 against the Chargers. The 12 – 5 Browns, on the other hand, have had a few ups and downs this year, highlighted – or lowlighted – by their week 16 loss to the pathetic New York Jets. The Chiefs are the #1 passing team in the league, as measured by passing yards, and have the league’s best young quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, whereas Cleveland’s defense is ranked 22nd in passing yards surrendered, so there’s no reason to think that Kansas City can’t rack up points in this game. From a statistical perspective, the Chiefs defense has been mediocre, having given up 27 or more points six times this season. The Browns offense, led by Baker Mayfield, has had their moments of extreme hot and cold – they scored 49 points on the Cowboys, and 27 or more points 9 times, including against the Steelers last week. Cleveland has also looked cold as ice at times, though, with 4 games at 10 points or less. Therefore, it isn’t impossible to think that Good Cleveland shows up and gives the Chiefs a battle, but the more likely result is a fairly easy Kansas City victory. Give the points and take the Chiefs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
There’s a reason why this game is the Sunday evening prime time matchup. Future first ballot hall of famer Tom Brady versus future first ballot hall of famer Drew Brees is a battle we will almost assuredly not see again, as Brees is rumored to be headed to retirement and the broadcast booth after the Saints’ season ends, and the 43 year old Brady can’t possibly have many years left. There’s no telling how this game may turn out considering the talent of the two quarterbacks, but on the whole, the teams’ offenses are fairly even, with the Buccaneers having scored just 10 more points, 492 to New Orleans’ 482. The 13 – 4 Saints beat the 12 – 5 Buccaneers twice this season, so at first glance, that might give the Saints the advantage. However, the Saints lost two games they should have won this season, one to the Raiders and one to the Eagles. This is the premier matchup of the weekend, so if you only have time to watch one game, this is it. I’m going to go with the Saints, but I don’t feel good about it. Please don’t make your bets on the game based on my advice.
STATISTICS
The following chart shows the relevant offensive rankings for each remaining team:
| Team | Seeding | Points | Total Yds | Passing Yds | Passing Yds per Att | Rushing Yards | Rushing Yds per Att | Sacks Surrendered |
| Chiefs | AFC #1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 5 |
| Packers | NFC #1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| Bills | AFC #2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 9 |
| Saints | NFC #2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 12 |
| Ravens | AFC #5 | 7 | 19 | 32 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| Buccaneers | NFC #5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 27 | 4 |
| Browns | AFC #6 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Rams | NFC #6 | 23 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
The following chart shows the relevant defensive rankings for each remaining team:
| Team | Seeding | Points | Total Yds | Passing Yds | Passing Yds per Att | Rushing Yards | Rushing Yds per Att | Sacks Surrendered |
| Chiefs | AFC #1 | 11 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
| Packers | NFC #1 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 11 |
| Bills | AFC #2 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 16 |
| Saints | NFC #2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Ravens | AFC #5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 14 |
| Buccaneers | NFC #5 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Browns | AFC #6 | 21 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 16 |
| Rams | NFC #6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |