Who is Washington’s real competition for a quarterback?
February 8, 2021
by Steve Thomas
It’s no secret that Washington has serious problems at quarterback. Last week, I wrote a column advocating for Washington to pursue Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson (click here to read). Despite the free agent and trade possibilities, it’s possible – probably more likely – that the Redskins Washington drafts a quarterback. Either way, the team will have some significant competition, which brings me to the point of this column: what is Washington’s competition to land a quarterback, whether through free agency or the draft?
To set the stage, the only quarterback currently on Washington’s roster is Alex Smith, who carries a $24.4M cap hit for 2021, with $10.8M of pre-June 1 dead cap. This equates to a usage of about 12.8% of the salary cap. This means that Washington can’t add a big-dollar quarterback without running the cap usage up to around 30% or more if Smith remains on the roster. Also, in my view, there’s a bit of a moral dilemma with just cutting Smith considering what he’s sacrificed for this franchise. I’m not saying Washington won’t do it, but it’s not as clear-cut of an issue as some fans seem to think. Head coach Ron Rivera acknowledged as much in the recent introductory press conference for Martin Mayhew and Marty Hurney, when he mentioned that the team needs to wait for Smith to make a decision about his future. Smith could decide that it’s time to retire (which would cause him a financial loss and possibly subject him to an obligation to repay a certain portion of his signing bonus), or he could decide to play another season, putting the team in the position of either accepting him back, trying to find a trade partner, or releasing him. Smith is a classy guy, so I suspect that he will make a decision before the start of free agency. Regardless, what Smith decides is going to be critical to the structure of Washington’s 2021 quarterback group. Washington may need to rebuild their quarterback room from scratch.
Here’s the status of every of other NFL team (feel free to skip to the end for the summary):
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Jurrah Jones and company currently have Cooper Rush and Ben DiNucci on the roster, each on small contracts. Dak Prescott will be a free agent unless Dallas either re-signs him or franchise tags him for the second year in a row. Clearly, as is, the Cowboys have a major problem at quarterback and represent competition for Washington.
New York Giants: The Giants have 2019 round 1st round pick Daniel Jones, plus Joe Webb, Alex Tanney, and Clayton Thorson. New York has shown patience with Jones, who’s had ups and downs, and have plenty of backup candidates, and thus probably aren’t in the market.
Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia is rumored to be getting close to a trade for Carson Wentz. 2020 rookie 1st round pick Jalen Hurts is their future. The Eagles will need to sign or draft a backup to Hurts.
Possible competition: Dallas, Eagles (backup only)
NFC North
Chicago Bears: The Bears only quarterback on the roster is journeyman Nick Foles, who’s signed through 2022. The Bears have a big need here and represent competition for Washington.
Detroit Lions: The Lions are newly engaged to Jared Goff, who is signed to big money through 2024. Detroit also has Chase Daniels and David Blough on the roster. They aren’t looking for a quarterback.
Green Bay Packers: Quarterback drama abounds here. The Packers irritated future hall of famer Aaron Rodgers by drafting last year’s first round pick Jordan Love. If, for whatever reason, Rodgers leaves, then Green Bay will need another quarterback to back up Love, but otherwise, the Packers aren’t in the quarterback race this year.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings jumped in the sack with Kirk Cousins in 2018 and are stuck with Kurt and his fully guaranteed contract through 2022. They also have Jake Browning, and Nate Stanley on the roster. Minnesota is not competition for Washington.
Possible competition: Bears
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have veteran Matt Ryan and Kurt Benkert. Ryan is signed to a huge contract through 2023. There was some thought recently that Atlanta would try to trade Ryan, but that doesn’t appear to be in the plans. Atlanta may try to find an upgrade at their backup position, but otherwise will not pursue a quarterback this year.
Carolina Panthers: Carolina has Teddy Bridgewater signed through 2022, plus Will Grier, who was their 2019 3rd round pick, and Phillip Walker, who is on a minimum salary contract. It’s not impossible to think that the Panthers may want to upgrade from Bridgewater this year, but they aren’t desperate to do so.
New Orleans Saints: If Drew Brees retires, as is widely rumored and expected, then the Saints will be down to Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. Both will be free agents at the end of the 2021 season. Assuming Brees is gone, the Saints have a pretty serious problem on their hands and will definitely be in the market for a starting quarterback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Greatest Human Being in Recorded History, Tom Brady, is signed through 2021, and Mr. Terrific has given every indication that he will keep playing. Tampa has no backup signed for next year, so they will be in the market for a suitable backup to a 44 year old.
Possible competition: Saints, Buccaneers (backup only)
NFC West:
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are set for the foreseeable future with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft Kyler Murray at the helm, with Cole McDonald and Chris Streveler as the backups.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams are now The Matthew Stafford Experience thanks to their big trade with the Lions. Los Angeles has Stafford locked up through 2022, with 3 other quarterbacks also on the roster next year, including John Wolford, Devlin Hodges, and Bryce Perkins. The Rams are not looking for more.
San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco has Jimmy Garoppolo under contract through 2022 at a cap hit of $26.4M this coming season, along with former Redskin Josh Johnson on a one year futures contract. The 49ers have been mentioned in trade rumors, and Garappolo may not be the long-term answer, so they seem to be in the market for both a starter and a backup.
Seattle Seahawks: Future hall of famer Russell Wilson is under contract through 2023, with massive cap hits of $32M, $37M, and $39M. Seattle also has two practice-squad level backups on the roster, Danny Etling and Alex McGough, so they are probably on the lookout for a backup to Wilson.
Possible competition: 49ers, Seattle (backup only)
AFC East:
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, who was Buffalo’s 1st round pick in 2018, is the Bills’ engrained starter. They also have David Webb and Jake Fromm, so Buffalo is not on the lookout for a quarterback.
Miami Dolphins: Miami drafted Tua Tagovailoa with the 5th overall pick last year and also have Reid Sinnett on a minimum value futures contract. Miami has been mentioned in Deshaun Watson trade rumors, which would seem far-fetched except that the Dolphins have Houston’s third overall pick thanks to the Laremy Tunsil trade. They also clearly need a quality backup.
New England Patriots: The Cam Newton experiment was unsuccessful and he’s a free agent again, so the Patriots only have 2019 fourth round pick Jarrett Stidham and Jacob Dolegala on a minimum value futures contract. The Bill Belichicks are definitely in the market for a new starter.
New York Jets: The Jets have Sam Darnold, who was the 3rd overall pick in 2018, as well as 2020 fourth round draft pick James Morgan and Dallas’ 2018 fifth round pick Mike White on a one year futures contract. Darnold’s career thusfar has mostly been sucked into the morass of despair that engulfs everyone who is cursed with having to play for the Jets. The Jets have been involved in several quarterback trade rumors, but the rumors have always been that other teams have called the Jets, not the other way around. At this moment, it appears as though New York is going to keep Darnold, and they don’t really need a new backup. That having been said, they do have the second overall pick in this year’s draft, which automatically puts them in contention.
Possible competition: Dolphins (backup), Patriots, Jets
AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have former league MVP Lamar Jackson signed to his rookie contract through 2021, and also have a team option on him for 2022. The Ravens apparently want to offer Jackson a contract extension. 2019 sixth round pick Trace McSorley is signed through 2022, and practice squad player Tyler Huntley is signed to a one year futures contract. The Ravens are not in the quarterback market.
Cincinnati Bengals: Last year’s #1 overall pick, Joe Burrow, looked good until he suffered a serious knee injury against Washington. The idea that he can be back for week one seems like a long shot, but the Bengals also have 2019 fourth round pick Ryan Finley signed through 2022, as well as practice squad player Kyle Shumur. The Bengals do not need a quarterback long-term, although if Burrow isn’t healthy at the beginning of the season, it’s not impossible to think that they will go find a new backup to Finley.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns are set for this year with Baker Mayfield. His rookie deal expires at the end of next season, but Cleveland also has a fifth year option on him. Case Keenum is the backup and is signed through 2022. Practice squad player Kyle Lauletta is on a one year futures deal. There have been a couple of rumors about the Browns being in on a Watson trade, but I don’t view them as credible.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger is only signed through 2021. Pittsburgh also has Mason Rudolph (third round, 2018) and former Washington quarterback Dwayne Haskins on the roster. Generally speaking, Pittsburgh is probably in search mode for Big Ben’s replacement, which may or may not be Rudolph or Haskins. For that reason, I wouldn’t put it past Pittsburgh to take advantage of an opportunity should one arise, but realistically, they probably don’t represent competition for Washington on the quarterback front this year unless Roethlisberger unexpectedly retires.
Possible competition: none
AFC South:
Houston Texans: The Texans, of course, are patient zero in terms of current quarterback rumors, as incumbent starter Deshaun Watson is currently attempting to whine and snivel his way out of Houston. The Texans also have long-time veteran Josh McCown signed through 2021.
Indianapolis Colts: With Philip Rivers’ retirement, the Colts are down to just Jacob Eason (4th round, 2020) and 2020 undrafted free agent Jalen Morton, who is on a one year futures contract. The Colts are desperate for a quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville only has Gardner Minshew (round 6, 2019) and Jake Luton (round 6, 2020) in their 2021 quarterback group. They are desperate for a starter and have the #1 overall pick in the draft, so odds are that they draft Trevor Lawrence from Clemson, but they are also mentioned in every quarterback trade rumor.
Tennessee Titans: Starter Ryan Tannehill is entering the second year of a 4 year deal with Tennessee. The Titans also have DeShone Kizer and Logan Woodside on the roster on minimum contracts. Tennessee realistically isn’t in the quarterback market.
Possible competition: Colts, Jaguars
AFC West:
Denver Broncos: Denver has last year’s second round pick, Drew Lock, as their starter, with the backup, Jeff Driskel, and 2019 undrafted free agent Brett Rypien both entering the final year of their contracts. The Broncos were rumored to be in the Deshaun Watson trade sweepstakes.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs obviously have the $450M man, Patrick Mahomes, with veteran Chad Henne as the backup and Jordan Ta’amu and Anthony Gordon both on futures contracts. The last thing the Chiefs need is a quarterback.
Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders’ starter is veteran Derek Carr, who has a $22.125M cap hit this coming season. His 5 year contract extension runs through 2022. Marcus Mariota is the backup. He’s entering the final year of a 2 year contract and will have a $10.725M cap hit in 2021. Nathan Peterman, who just signed a one year contract extension, is the third stringer, and Kyle Sloter, who just signed a futures contract, is probably their practice squad quarterback. There have been a few mostly insane people speculating about Washington trading for Carr, but realistically, the Raiders probably aren’t in the market unless something falls into their laps.
Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 first round draft choice, Justin Herbert, is the Chargers’ quarterback of the future. They also have 2019 fifth found pick Easton Stick on the roster. The Chargers will probably sign a practice squad-type to fill out their quarterback room, but they aren’t otherwise in the quarterback hunt.
Possible competition: Broncos
Analysis
So, after going through all of that, six teams are truly desperate for a new quarterback starter: Chicago, Dallas, Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, and Washington. Four other teams appear to be in the market: Denver, Jacksonville, the New York Jets, and San Francisco. The Buccaneers, Eagles, Miami, and Seattle have a need for a strong veteran backup.
As I mentioned above, Jacksonville has the #1 overall pick in the draft, followed by the Jets at 2, Miami at 3, Denver at 9, San Francisco at 12, New England at 15, Washington at 19, and Chicago at 20. I can’t imagine Denver drafting another quarterback so soon, so Washington’s realistic draft competition that is ahead of them are the Jaguars, Jets, Miami, San Francisco, and New England. We’ll preview the draft quarterback group later this offseason, but there probably aren’t six first round-worthy quarterbacks, so if Washington is bound and determined to grab one in round 1, they’ll have to trade up.
The Dallas Cowboys can and probably will solve their problem by either signing or franchise tagging Dak Prescott. If they don’t, then they’ll also need to be thrown into the draft calculus at pick #10.
From a salary cap perspective, the Jaguars, Colts, Jets, Patriots, Dallas, and the Redskins Washington all have significant salary cap room and can swing a big quarterback contract. The 49ers have $21M in space right now and could create more by trading Jimmy Garoppolo. The Saints, on the other hand, are in a “Noah trying to save himself and a bunch of animals from God’s destruction of the planet by building an arc” level of salary cap catastrophe, at at least -$70M, and maybe significantly more. Even Drew Brees’ retirement won’t get them close to being out of that hole, as he’ll only save them a maximum of about $11M, so they simply can’t in any fantasy sign or trade for a big money quarterback this year. The Bears are also in the hole, albeit by just $510K, so they are probably out of big-money free agent contracts.
So who are Washington’s real competition for a quarterback in (1) free agency for Dak Prescott (or maybe a trade if the Cowboys tag him) or a trade for Deshaun Watson, or (2) the draft? The Jaguars will probably draft Trevor Lawrence, but they could send their pick to Houston. The others are the Colts, Jets, and Patriots, and the Bears in the draft only. That’s the realistic universe.
What do you think will happen at quarterback this year?