How much help does Washington need at wide receiver?
February 17, 2021
by Steve Thomas
We’ve spent quite a bit of time and website space here on The Hog Sty talking about the Redskins’ Washington’s quarterback situation, whereas it has been implicitly understood that the team needs a big upgrade at wide receiver. I don’t disagree with that notion, but I wanted to take a bit of time to take a quick look at whether the statistics back up belief, or whether it shows that Washington’s struggles were more about the problems at quarterback.
What I’m going to do here is examine the production of Washington’s 2020 wide receiver group, then compare them to the wide receiver groups of a small number of rival teams in order to get some perspective on the true talent and production here in DC heading into the 2021 season.
First, here’s the group of receivers currently signed to Washington’s roster for the 2021 season:
Starters:
X – Terry McLaurin
Z – unknown
Slot – Steven Sims Jr.
Backup level: Kelvin Harmon, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Isaiah Wright, Emanuel Hall
Practice squad level: Jeff Badet, Tony Brown, Trevor Davis
Note that Washington doesn’t have a clear and obvious starter for the Z role. Cam Sims took over the job from Dontrelle Inman halfway through last season, but Inman is now an unrestricted free agent and Cam is an unsigned exclusive rights free agent. Of the players currently on the roster, the obvious candidates are, first, Kelvin Harmon, followed by Antonio Gandy-Golden. That having been said, unfortunately, neither player has enough regular season stats to be overly useful in a statistical analysis. We’ll take a quick look at a few different measures of performance below. In order to simplify the analysis, I’m going to stick to 2020 results.
One caveat here is that Washington got significant receiving production from its starting tight end, Logan Thomas, and the running backs, particularly J.D. McKissic. This column only deals with the wide receiver group, so I’m going to leave those players out of this analysis.
Basic stats[1]:
Starters:
McLaurin: 134 targets, 87 receptions, 1118 yards, 12.9 yards/reception, 4 TDs
Sims: 37 targets, 27 receptions, 265 yards, 9.8 yards/reception, 1 TD
Total 2020 production from 2021 starters: 171 targets, 114 receptions, 1383 yards, 12.1 yards/reception, 5 TDs
Backups and practice squad level:
Harmon: none
Gandy-Golden: 7 targets, 1 reception, 3 yards, 3.0 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Wright: 35 targets, 27 receptions, 197 yards, 7.3 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Hall: None
Badet: None
Brown: None
Davis: None
Total 2020 production from all receivers currently on 2021 roster: 205 targets, 142 receptions, 1,583 yards, 11.1 yards per reception, 5 TDs, 69.2% catch percentage
Current free agents from 2020 roster:
Robert Foster: 6 targets, 2 receptions, 37 yards, 18.5 yards per reception, 0 TDs, 33% catch %
Cam Sims: 48 targets, 32 receptions, 477 yards, 14.9 yards/reception, 1 TD,
Dontrelle Inman: 28 targets, 18 receptions, 163 yards, 9.1 yards per reception, 2 TDs
Total current free agent wide receiver production: 82 targets, 52 receptions, 677 yards, 13.0 yards per reception, 3 TDs, 63.4% catch percentage
Total 2020 wide receiver production: 287 targets, 194 receptions, 2,260 yards, 11.6 yards per reception, 8 TDs, 67.6% catch percentage
In glancing at the basic numbers produced by Washington’s 2020 wide receiver group, it shows what we already knew: Terry McLaurin is the most productive receiver on the team, by far. He accounted for 46.7% of the targets and 49.5% of the yardage gained by the receivers. Nobody else came even close, although if you put Cam Sims and Inman together, they roughly produced numbers akin to a low-level starter. Beyond that, none of the receivers from last season produced much. That’s not to say they can’t do it in the future, but they don’t have a history of significant performance.
Now let’s dive into a few advanced stats in order to see what they can tell us about the performance of these players:
Catch %: McLaurin: 64.9%; S. Sims: 73.0%; Wright: 77.1%; C. Sims: 66.7%; Inman: 64.3%
Yards after catch per reception: McLaurin: 5.5 (ranked 55); S. Sims: 4.7; Wright: 5.3; C. Sims: 7.8; Inman: 2.4
Drop %: McLaurin: 2.2% (ranked 36); S. Sims: 5.4%; Wright: 2.9%; C. Sims: 2.1%; Inman 3.6%
Passer rating for QB when targeted: McLaurin: 91.6 (ranked 133); S. Sims: 90.5; Wright: 89.8; C. Sims: 79.9; Inman: 74.0
I have a few caveats to this data: first, neither Gandy-Golden nor Foster had enough targets to have statistically relevant advanced data, and thus their stats didn’t have significant probative value. I therefore intentionally left them out. Second, the raw catch percentage numbers can be deceiving because that statistic is calculated using a simple receptions divided by targets formula, meaning that it doesn’t take into account the quality of the pass and whether the quarterback was actually making a legitimate attempt at a completion or was just throwing the ball away. Finally, the drop percentage stat isn’t a truly objective statistic because it requires an analyst to make a subjective determination as to whether a ball was catchable and deserves a “drop” designation as opposed to simply being affected by a defender.
With those caveats out of the way, the biggest thing that jumps off the page is Cam Sims – he has the highest yards after catch (7.8) and the lowest drop rate (2.1%).
As a team, Washington had a combined quarterback rating of 80.1, including the two gadget play throws by Logan Thomas and Isaiah Wright. That means that McLaurin, Steve Sims, and Wright were all “value added” in terms of quarterback rating. That stat isn’t perfect, of course, so take it for what you will. Quarterback rating is heavily weighted towards touchdowns and against interceptions, so I suspect Cam Sims is a bit lower because 1 or more interceptions came on passes intended for him. It’s also possible that his slightly lower catch percentage (again, not a great stat) has something to do with it. Generally, all of the quarterback rating numbers are most likely lower because of the high number of interceptions.
Finally, at first glance, it doesn’t seem that Washington’s receivers averaged significant yards after catch, with Cam Sims in the lead at 7.8 yards after catch per reception, followed by McLaurin at 5.5 and Wright at 5.3. However, as we’ll see below, these numbers actually aren’t bad.
The Competition
It would take way too much space and time to compare Washington’s production to every team in the NFL, but I will take a look at Washington’s NFC East rivals, plus the Tennessee Titans and the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Tom Bradys. I picked Tennessee because they are a quality playoff team which didn’t have a Hall of Fame or All-Pro caliber quarterback at the helm. Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl and is therefore in the mix.
Dallas Cowboys:
Basic 2020 receiver stats:
Amari Cooper: 130 targets, 92 receptions, 1114 yards, 12.1 yards per reception, 5 TDs
Michael Gallup: 105 targets, 59 receptions, 843 yards, 14.3 yards per reception, 5 TDs
CeeDee Lamb: 111 targets, 74 receptions, 935 yards, 12.6 yards per reception, 5 TDs
Noah Brown: 24 targets, 14 receptions, 154 yards, 11.0 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Cedrick Wilson Jr.: 28 targets, 17 receptions, 189 yards, 11.1 yards per reception, 2 TDs
Total production: 398 targets, 256 receptions, 3,235 yards, 12.6 yards per reception, 17 TDs, 64.3% catch percentage
Advanced stats:
Cooper: 4.5 yards after catch per reception, 2.3% drop percentage, 96.8 QB rating
Gallup: 4.3 yards after catch per reception, 5.7% drop percentage, 98.2 QB rating
Lamb: 4.2 yards after catch per reception, 7.2% drop percentage, 100.2 QB rating
Brown: 3.4 yards after catch per reception, 0.0% drop percentage, 77.4 QB rating
Wilson: 6.6 yards after catch per reception, 10.7% drop percentage, 89.7 QB rating
Notice how heavily dependent on receivers Dallas was compared to Washington – they have 3 receivers with more than 100 targets, which is more than all of Washington’s receivers combined. Also, only Cedric Wilson can match the average yards after catch of Terry McLaurin, Steve Sims, and Cam Sims. Finally, Dallas’ receivers drop far more balls than do Washington’s, on average.
New York Giants:
Basic 2020 receiver stats:
Sterling Shepard: 96 targets, 66 receptions, 656 yards, 9.9 yards per reception, 3 TDs
Darius Slayton: 96 targets, 50 receptions, 751 yards, 15.0 yards per reception, 3 TDs
Golden Tate: 52 targets, 35 receptions, 388 yards, 11.1 yards per reception, 2 TDs
C.J. Board: 16 targets, 11 receptions, 101 yards, 9.2 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Austin Mack: 11 targets, 7 receptions, 91 yards, 13.0 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Dante Pettis: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 76 yards, 19.0 yards per reception, 1 TD
Damion Ratley: 10 targets, 4 receptions, 63 yards, 15.8 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Total production: 286 targets, 177 receptions, 2,126 yards, 12.0 yards per reception, 9 TDs, 61.9% catch percentage
Advanced stats:
Shepard: 3.1 yards after catch per reception, 1.1% drop percentage, 100.0 QB rating
Slayton: 3.2 yards after catch per reception, 6.3% drop percentage, 79.8 QB rating
Tate: 2.1 yards after catch per reception, 1.9% drop percentage, 94.1 QB rating
The Giants have two receivers with more than 95 targets, but none of them get significant yards after catch.
Philadelphia Eagles:
Basic 2020 receiver stats:
Travis Fulgham: 67 targets, 38 receptions, 539 yards, 14.2 yards per reception, 4 TDs
John Hightower: 29 targets, 10 receptions, 167 yards, 16.7 yards per reception, 0 TDs
DeSean Jackson: 26 targets, 14 receptions, 236 yards, 16.9 yards per reception, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 13 targets, 6 receptions, 115 yards, 19.2 yards per reception, 1 TD
Jalen Reagor: 54 targets, 31 receptions, 396 yards, 12.8 yards per reception, 1 TD
Greg Ward: 79 targets, 53 receptions, 419 yards, 7.9 yards per reception, 6 TDs
Deontay Burnett: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 19 yards, 6.3 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Quez Watkins: 13 targets, 7 receptions, 106 yards, 15.1 yards per reception, 1 TD
JJ Arcega-Whiteside: 8 targets, 4 receptions, 85 yards, 21.3 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Total production: 293 targets, 166 receptions, 2,082 yards, 12.5 yards per reception, 14 TDs, 56.7% catch percentage
Advanced stats:
Fulgham: 2.6 yards after catch per reception, 3.0% drop percentage, 96.5 QB rating
Hightower: 5.7 yards after catch per reception, 10.3% drop percentage, 15.2 QB rating
Jackson: 4.6 yards after catch per reception, 7.7% drop percentage, 81.6 QB rating
Reagor: 6.2 yards after catch per reception, 1.9% drop percentage, 63.5 QB rating
Ward: 3.1 yards after catch per reception, 2.5% drop percentage, 94.9 QB rating
The Eagles spread the ball around pretty well, with 5 receivers with 26 or more targets. John Hightower and Jaylon Reagor both get decent yards after catch, although Hightower’s drop percentage is about as high as it gets for a receiver with significant playing time.
Tennessee Titans:
Basic 2020 receiver stats:
A.J. Brown: 106 targets, 70 receptions, 1,075 yards, 15.4 yards per reception, 11 TDs
Corey Davis: 92 targets, 65 receptions, 984 yards, 15.1 yards per reception, 5 TDs
Adam Humphries: 35 targets, 23 receptions, 228 yards, 9.9 yards per reception, 2 TDs
Cameron Batson: 13 targets, 12 receptions, 100 yards, 8.3 yards per reception, 1 TD
Kalif Raymond: 15 targets, 9 receptions, 187 yards, 20.8 yards per reception, 0 TD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 8 targets, 3 receptions, 33 yards, 11.0 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Total production: 269 targets, 182 receptions, 2,607 yards, 14.3 yards per reception, 19 TDs
Advanced stats:
Brown: 6.2 yards after catch per reception, 4.7% drop percentage, 126.1 QB rating
Davis: 4.5 yards after catch per reception, 3.3% drop percentage, 123.6 QB rating
Humphries: 2.0 yards after catch per reception, 2.9% drop percentage, 91.1 QB rating
Tennessee also has two receivers with more than 90 targets, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Brown’s drop percentage is a bit high, but he also averages more than 6 yards after catch per reception. Notice that only Brown is in the same class as Washington’s three receivers in the yards after catch metric.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Basic 2020 receiver stats:
Mike Evans: 109 targets, 70 receptions, 1006 yards, 14.4 yards per reception, 13 TDs
Antonio Brown: 62 targets, 45 receptions, 483 yards, 10.7 yards per reception, 4 TDs
Chris Godwin: 84 targets, 65 receptions, 840 yards, 12.9 yards per reception, 7 TDs
Tyler Johnson: 17 targets, 12 receptions, 169 yards, 14.1 yards per reception, 2 TDs
Jaydon Mickens: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 58 yards, 8.3 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Scott Miller: 53 targets, 33 receptions, 501 yards, 15.2 yards per reception, 3 TDs
Justin Watson: 11 targets, 7 receptions, 94 yards, 13.4 yards per reception, 0 TDs
Total production: 346 targets, 239 receptions, 3,151 yards, 13.2 yards per reception, 29 TDs, 69.1% catch percentage
Advanced stats:
Evans: 3.8 yards after catch per reception, 3.7% drop percentage, 126.0 QB rating
Brown: 5.6 yards after catch per reception, 0.0% drop percentage, 109.8 QB rating
Godwin: 4.3 yards after catch per reception, 3.6% drop percentage, 131.1 QB rating
Miller: 3.3 yards after catch per reception, 3.8% drop percentage, 96.5 QB rating
Note than Tampa had 4 receivers with more than 50 targets, with none of them especially high drop percentages. Only Antonio Brown was able to get significant yards after catch.
Conclusions
What can we glean from this information? Honestly, understanding that a comparison to just five other teams isn’t conclusive, Washington fared much better than I thought they would in some respects.
First, both Dallas and Tampa Bay got more than 3,000 total yards from their receiver group, with the Cowboys at 3,235 and the Tom Bradys at 3,151 yards. Washington’s 2,260 yards is obviously significantly behind those two other teams, but they are ahead of both the Giants and the Eagles. In addition, Washington’s average of 11.6 yards per reception is last among these six teams, with Tennessee leading the way at 14.3, followed by Tampa at 13.2.
Note the Cam Sims’ 7.8 average yards after catch per reception is the highest of any player on these six teams. In addition, Washington is the only team to have three receivers over 5 yards in this statistic. Also, Washington’s drop percentages aren’t terrible and are well within the rough range of the other teams on this list, and in some cases, better.
Washington’s deep-level receiver stats are fairly decent other than quarterback rating – the problem is that only Terry McLaurin produced them on a volume level. These numbers tell me that the biggest problem Washington may have isn’t necessarily receivers without talent; it may just be the high number of interceptions thrown by the quarterbacks. Washington had 16 interceptions on the year, which was ranked 27 and more than every team on this list but the terrible 4 – 11 – 1 Eagles, who had 20 this past season (ranked 31st).
Washington needs to bring back Cam Sims, and considering that he’s an exclusive rights free agent, they almost assuredly will do so. The team will probably draft a receiver, and that’s a good thing, but these numbers give me hope that the players on the roster (again, assuming Cam is back) can produce if given have a chance with a quality quarterback.
What do you think? Let me know in the comment section below.
[1] All data is courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com.