Free Agency 2021 Preview: Wide Receivers
March 11, 2021
by Steve Thomas
This is the final entry in our 2021 free agency preview series. Here’s what we previously covered:
Washington’s wide receiver group consists of two starters, superstar-in-the-making Terry McLaurin in the “X” role, and slot receiver Steven Sims, Jr., plus third year player Kelvin Harmon, 2020 fourth round pick Antonio Gandy-Golden, 2020 undrafted free agent slot receiver Isaiah Wright, 2019 undrafted free agent Emanuel Hall, 2018 undrafted free agent Jeff Badet, and practice squad players Trevor Davis (Green Bay’s 2016 fifth round pick) and Tony Brown (2020 undrafted free agent). Washington currently does not have a starting Z receiver, as 2020 starter Cam Sims is unsigned; however, he is an exclusive rights free agent so the odds are good that he will be back. Of this group, only McLaurin is a plus-level player. Steve Sims has shown promise at times, but has yet to break out. Isaiah Wright is in the same situation. Kelvin Harmon probably has the most potential of any of the other receivers, but he missed all of 2020 due to injury.
It’s safe to say that the Redskins Washington has one of the most unheralded receiver groups in the entire NFL and could use major help. Therefore, there’s a decent chance that Washington may invest in a free agent this offseason. Head coach Ron Rivera offered Amari Cooper a large deal last season, which shows that he’s willing to invest big money in this position group. A partial list of available candidates who might be a good fit with Washington is below. As always, I’ve eliminated everyone aged 32 or older and any player who is not an unrestricted free agent. As a general proposition, it’s a bit tough to believe that a top of the market receiver with options would choose to come to a team without either a plus-level starting quarterback, a realistic shot at drafting a day one starter in round 1, or an obvious plan to acquire a plus-level quarterback in free agency, to say nothing of the ongoing mess in the front office. Therefore, Washington will probably have to outbid the competition for any of the top players. Unfortunately, the top receiver at the market, Allen Robinson, was franchise tagged by the Chicago Bears this week, as was Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin, which removes two elite receivers from consideration and makes the situation even tougher to navigate.
#1. Kenny Golladay, 6’4” / 214, Lions, 27 years old: Golladay was Detroit’s third round pick in 2017. He was timed at 4.5 seconds in the 40 yard dash at the 2017 NFL Combine. In four seasons, he’s played 47 games, starting 39, with 183 receptions in 315 targets, for a 58.1% catch percentage, 3,068 yards, 16.8 yards per receptions, and 21 touchdowns. He was selected to the 2019 Pro Bowl. In 2020, Golladay played and started just 5 games due to a hip injury, making 20 receptions in 32 attempts for 338 yards, 16.9 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Golladay is a major deep threat and would therefore be a great complement to Terry McLaurin. The Lions have more than $10M in cap space, so it’s very possible, maybe likely, that they franchise tag Golladay, but if he hits the free agent market, he’s also going to command a top of the market contract in the range of $18M – $20M per year.
#2. Corey Davis, 6’3” / 209, Titans, 26 years old: Davis was the Titans’ first round pick in 2017. In four seasons, he has played in 56 games, starting 48, and has 207 receptions in 338 attempts, a 61.2% catch percentage, 2,851 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He took a major step forward in 2020, playing 14 games, starting 12, with 65 receptions in 92 attempts, 984 yards, 15.1 yards per attempt, and 5 touchdowns. Davis didn’t run the 40 yard dash at either the 2017 Combine or his pro day because of an injury. The Titans declined their fifth year option on his rookie contract and only have about $7M in free cap space, so Davis will probably make it to free agency. Davis will probably cost around $10M per year, so his contract will be a bit easier for Washington to absorb than the top-ranked talent at this position.
#3. JuJu Smith-Schuster, 6’1” / 215, Steelers, 24 years old: Smith-Schuster was the 2017 second year pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his four seasons, he’s played in 58 games, including 46 starts, with 308 receptions in 443 attempts for a 69.5% catch percentage, 3,726 yards, and 26 touchdowns. He was timed at 4.54 seconds in the 40 yard dash. He was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2018. In 2020, Smith-Schuster played all 16 games, starting 14, making 97 receptions in 128 attempts for 831 yards, 8.6 yards per reception and 9 touchdowns. Those are possession receiver-type numbers, but Smith-Schuster was also limited a bit by the elderly and broken Ben Roethlisberger, but his game could open up again playing opposite a star like Terry McLaurin (assuming Washington somehow finds a quarterback, which is a predicate to the success of all of these receivers). Pittsburgh doesn’t have a ton of cap space, about $8M, so they could conceivably let him leave in free agency. He’s a big name who has seen success, though, so he’s going to be expensive, probably in the neighborhood of $16M – $18M per year.
#4. Curtis Samuel, 5’11” / 195, Panthers, 24 years old: Samuel was drafted by the Carolina Panthers in round 2 in 2017, and played for now-Washington head coach Ron Rivera for three years. Samuel has elite speed, having been timed at 4.31 seconds in the 40 yard dash at the 2017 NFL Combine. In his four seasons, he has played 53 games, starting 32, and made 185 receptions in 293 attempts for a 63.1% catch percentage, 2,087 yards, 11.3 yards per reception, and 14 touchdowns. 2020 was his most productive season, with 77 receptions in 97 attempts, 11.1 yards per reception, 851 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Samuel lined up mostly in the slot, but he is versatile to play multiple roles and has the speed to be a playmaker. One concern is that Samuel’s best season came in a contract year after Rivera left. The Panthers have significant cap room, over $37M, so they can afford to offer him a significant contract if they want to do so. Obviously, both Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner are familiar with him, which may help in both his recruitment and to integrate him into the offense. He’s expected to earn a contract of around $13M – $14M per year in average annual value.
#5. Marvin Jones, 6’2” / 198, Lions, 31 on March 12: Jones was a fifth round pick in 2012 by the Cincinnati Bengals. He missed the entire 2014 season with an ankle injury. In total, Jones has played 112 games, starting 88, and made 423 receptions in 693 attempts for a 61.0% completion percentage, 6,025 yards, 14.2 yards per catch, and 73 touchdowns. In 2020, Jones played and started all 16 games and made 76 receptions in 115 attempts, 978 yards, 12.9 yards per attempt, and 9 touchdowns. He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.46 at the 2012 NFL Combine. Jones has good hands and is a playmaker, so he would be a good fit in Washington’s receiver group. His last contract with the Lions was 5 years, $40M, and while he’s due for a raise, it won’t be much, so Jones’ new deal should be in the range of $10M per year in average annual value.
#6. Sammy Watkins, 6’1”, 211, 27 years old: Watkins was the fourth overall pick by the Buffalo Bills in 2014. He stayed with Buffalo through the 2016 season, then was traded to the Rams during 2017 training camp. Watkins then signed a three year deal with the Chiefs in 2018. In total, he has played 86 games, with 82 starts, and has 321 receptions in 546 attempts, a 58.8% catch percentage, 4,665 yards, 14.5 yards per catch, and 33 touchdowns. In 2020, Watkins played just 10 games, starting 9 thanks to a calf injury, and made 37 receptions in 55 attempts, 67.3% catch percentage, 421 yards, 11.4 yards per catch, and 2 touchdowns. He ran the 40 yards dash in 4.43 seconds at the 2014 NFL Combine. Watkins probably hasn’t lived up to his lofty draft status, but he’s nonetheless a solid pro who can play a variety of roles. He’s projected to earn a contract in the range of $10M per year in average annual value. His 2020 numbers weren’t great, which will depress his value somewhat, as will his reputation for injuries that have held him back since the beginning.
#7. Will Fuller, 6’0” / 184, Texans, 26 years old: Fuller was drafted by the Houston Texans in round 1 in 2016. The Texans traded with the Redskins to move up one spot to get Fuller, leaving spectacular bust Josh Doctson to Washington one pick later (Washington also got Houston’s 2017 sixth round pick in that trade, which resulted in wide receiver Robert Davis, who was cut in 2019. You’re welcome for dredging that up; cheers). The Texans exercised their fifth year option on Fuller for 2020. In five years, he has played 53 games, starting 52, with 209 receptions in 333 attempts for a 62.8% catch percentage, 3,110 yards, 14.9 yards per catch, and 24 touchdowns. He’s a burner and was timed at 4.32 seconds in the 40 yard dash at the 2016 Combine. In 2020, Fuller played and started 11 games, making 53 receptions in 75 targets, a 70.7% catch percentage, 879 yards, 16.6 yards per reception, and 8 touchdowns. Fuller is more of a downfield big play threat than he is an underneath, short passing receiver, but Washington could definitely use a receiver with these skills. His principal negative is that he is a bit injury prone – he broke his collarbone in training camp in 2017 and tore his ACL in week 8 in 2018. He was also suspended last season for violation of the NFL’s performance enhancing drugs policy. Fuller is therefore not without risk, but is nevertheless expected to earn a contract in the range of $17M per year in average annual value. The Texans have more than $33M per year in cap space and a whiny, sniveling quarterback causing problems, so they may not want to let a weapon like Fuller go, which means Washington may have to offer him a premium contract in order to draw him to Raljon.
Other possibilities include Rashard Higgins, who was Cleveland’s fifth round pick in 2016 and who had a quality season in place of the injured Odell Beckham, the 27 year old Nelson Agholor, who finished a one year deal with the Raiders, the speedy but unproductive John Ross, and Keelan Cole, the undrafted free agent who spent 4 years with Jacksonville.
Bonus:
Cam Sims, 6’5” / 220, Washington, 25 years old: Sims was signed by Washington as an undrafted free agent out of Alabama in 2018. He was chronically underused by the Crimson Tide, but produced and shows flashes of big potential at times. At least one insightful and intelligent analyst saw Sims’ potential as early as 2018 training camp (click here to read). The Hog Sty also published an interview with Sims in 2019 by a young Washington fan, twelve year old Derrick Lee (click here to read). Sims bounced around between the practice squad and the active roster for his first two seasons before finally earning consistent playing time last year. In total, he has played in 24 games, including 11 starts, and earned a total of 34 receptions in 51 attempts for a 66.7% catch percentage, 504 yards, 14.8 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. In 2020, Sims had 32 receptions in 48 targets, 477 yards, 14.9 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. Sims is an exclusive rights free agent, not an unrestricted free agent, so Washington can maintain his rights by making him a tender offer. They should definitely do so, as he is a cheap, young, and developing player who has the talent carve out a long term role with the team going forward.
Obviously, many other options will be available, including a slew of relatively low-cost options, many of whom can develop into quality players. The truth is that Washington will probably have trouble attracting a top-end free agent receivers since the team probably currently has the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. It may not be realistic to expect the team to be able make a splashy free agent receiver signing unless they first land a premium, or even just a league average, starting passer.