Road to the Draft – Part 11
March 30, 2021
By Noonefromtampa
Welcome to the latest edition of The Hog Sty’s mock draft tracker column.
Free agency has moved from the initial frenzy period to the finding value phase. Adam Humphries was signed as additional help as a slot wide receiver. He is on a one year “prove it” deal after dealing with injuries for last couple of years. His best years were with Tampa Bay and his quarterback at the time was a player named Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Washington Football Team still has some roster holes at free safety, linebacker and tight end.
The Mocks
This week the number of mock drafts published went up by fifteen this from 183 to 198. However, most of the mocks were already posted when the news of the various first round trades were made between the 49ers, Dolphins and Eagles. Therefore, the impact from those trades will been seen in next week’s column. The position distribution is now:
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| OT | 58 | 29.29% | 30.60% | -1.31% |
| QB | 47 | 23.74% | 25.14% | -1.40% |
| WR | 31 | 15.66% | 15.30% | 0.36% |
| LB | 30 | 15.15% | 11.48% | 3.67% |
| IOL | 17 | 8.59% | 9.29% | -0.70% |
| CB | 6 | 3.03% | 3.28% | -0.25% |
| S | 4 | 2.02% | 2.19% | -0.17% |
| TE | 3 | 1.52% | 1.64% | -0.12% |
| Edge | 1 | 0.51% | 0.55% | -0.04% |
| DT | 1 | 0.51% | 0.55% | -0.04% |
| Grand Total | 198 | 100% |
With the WFT signings in free agency at quarterback and wide receiver, the biggest selection impact was at linebacker, which went up almost 3.7% from last week. Wide receiver was up slightly but offensive tackle and quarterback were both down over 1% each.
The players mock picked to WFT at nineteen in descending frequency are:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech | 38 | 19.19% |
| Mac Jones | QB | Alabama | 31 | 15.66% |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame | 16 | 8.08% |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Minnesota | 14 | 7.07% |
| Samuel Cosmi | OT | Texas | 12 | 6.06% |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | IOL | USC | 10 | 5.05% |
| Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State | 8 | 4.04% |
| Teven Jenkins | IOL | Oklahoma State | 7 | 3.54% |
| Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State | 7 | 3.54% |
| Zaven Collins | LB | Tulsa | 6 | 3.03% |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Florida | 5 | 2.53% |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama | 4 | 2.02% |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina | 4 | 2.02% |
| Rondale Moore | WR | Purdue | 3 | 1.52% |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida | 3 | 1.52% |
| Devonta Smith | WR | Alabama | 3 | 1.52% |
| Justin Fields | QB | Ohio St | 3 | 1.52% |
| Kyle Trask | QB | Florida | 2 | 1.01% |
| Trevon Moehrig-Woodard | S | TCU | 2 | 1.01% |
| Alex Leatherwood | OT | Alabama | 2 | 1.01% |
| Spencer Brown | OT | Northern Iowa | 2 | 1.01% |
| Jaylen Mayfield | OT | Michigan | 1 | 0.51% |
| Jaelan Phillips | Edge | Miami | 1 | 0.51% |
| Christian Barmore | DT | Alabama | 1 | 0.51% |
| Kellon Mond | QB | Texas A&M | 1 | 0.51% |
| Nick Bolton | LB | Missouri | 1 | 0.51% |
| Patrik Surtain II | CB | Alabama | 1 | 0.51% |
| Liam Eichenberg | OT | Notre Dame | 1 | 0.51% |
| Zack Wilson | QB | BYU | 1 | 0.51% |
| Eric Stokes | CB | Georgia | 1 | 0.51% |
| Andre Cisco | S | Syracuse | 1 | 0.51% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Player Trade | 1 | 0.51% |
| Elijah Moore | WR | Mississippi | 1 | 0.51% |
| Dillon Radunz | OT | North Dakota State | 1 | 0.51% |
| Jalen Mayfield | OT | Michigan | 1 | 0.51% |
| Jevon Holland | S | Oregon | 1 | 0.51% |
| Terrace Marshall Jr | WR | LSU | 1 | 0.51% |
The big movers this week are Christian Darrisaw and Mac Jones, which was expected given Washington’s free agency signings. Darrisaw is now the leading pick, regaining the spot he had at the start of our tracking. Darrisaw was up 2% while Jones was down about 6%. The leading linebacker candidates were also up this week. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was up about 0.5%, Micah Parsons was up around 1.5%, and Zaven Collins was up about 2%.
The breakdown of the percentage picked within each position group for the top five positions is as follows:
- Quarterback – Mac Jones (66% of QB picks), Trey Lance (17.3%), Justine Fields (6.4%), Kyle Trask (3.6%)
- Offensive tackle – Christian Darrisaw (65.5% of OT picks), Samuel Cosmi (20.7%), Alex Leatherwood (3.5%), Spenser Brown (3.5%)
- Wide receiver – Rashod Bateman (45.2% of WR picks), Kadarius Toney (16.1%), Jaylen Waddle (12.9%), Rondale Moore (9.7%), Devonta Smith (9.7%)
- Linebacker – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (53.3%), Micah Parsons (23.3%), Zaven Collins (20%), Nick Bolton (3.3%)
- Interior Offensive Line – Alijah Vera-Tucker (58.8%), Teven Jenkins (41.2%)
Fifteen mockers have WFT trading the #19 pick, with the most popular spots being up to #7-Detroit and #14-Minnesota. Predominately, Washington picks a quarterback in the trade up scenario. One mock has us trading back with Green Bay to get additional picks on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft.
My preference is still the trade back for additional picks because this is a fairly deep draft. Using various mock draft simulators, I have traded back to between 27 and 32, getting two to three additional Day 2 picks in the 2021 or 2022 drafts.
If you have any draft questions, post them in the comments or hit me up on Twitter @noonefromtampa.
Source: nflmockdraftdatabase.com